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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

Old 12th Aug 2020, 06:43
  #1281 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 309
So the domino has fallen just as many wise old heads have suggested. Next Early Retirement packages.

Short haul pilots, many of whom were wanting a VR package are still waiting.

Stood down provisions and JobKeeper greatly mitigates the short term surplus.

Of course the company are falling over themselves to help the LWOP decision. How many CR’s are required before the first SH Pilot is (potentially) affected? (The answer is around 15) A solid floor to CR numbers exists right there because of transfer of business restrictions. How would Network expand if a SH Pilot is CR’d? Oh that’s right...that’s not the company’s interpretation. Good luck. Take LWOP if it suits, otherwise sit tight.


Last edited by crosscutter; 12th Aug 2020 at 07:36.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 06:49
  #1282 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
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I don’t think Network will expand to rapidly for the foreseeable future, unless they get a 320 sim in WA or add 14 days of hotel quarantine to their cost base. Even then Ansett sim centre will be closed for as long as stage 4 in VIC go on as mentioned by Dan this could go past Sep if ppl don’t start doing the what they’re told.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 07:06
  #1283 (permalink)  
 
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Not really my point. Rather, as soon as SH Pilot is passed over for CR a court case the company could do without...one which they could lose...would probably occur. If CR occurred in pure seniority order and that includes SH pilots, that leaves recruitment in Network and Cobham stalled until that SH Pilot is reemployed in their old position. Dogs breakfast...you bet.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 07:13
  #1284 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Originally Posted by C441 View Post
There's a reason for that. Both the EA and FW have quite non-specific phraseology with regard to stand-down. In effect they state that a company can leave staff stood-down whilst there is no work for those staff perform for circumstances beyond the company's control. Depending upon your point of view this can mean, in the Qantas Longhaul case, that staff can be stood-down until the first regular scheduled international service is planned through to until such time as any specific fleet has sufficient flying to stand-up all of the crew. The Pilots would prefer the former, the company the latter and any number of interpretations in between.

It's hardly surprising then that there is disagreement amongst the group (and a few not affected) as to how long Qantas can keep crew stood-down.
which means it may come to a political decision- qf seem to be negotiating a defensive position for this to happen (MGH). Why else would they not just stand crew up/down as required?

188. Well done to whomever crunch the numbers on the offer, on the money eh

Last edited by maggot; 12th Aug 2020 at 08:35.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 07:21
  #1285 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by crosscutter View Post
Not really my point. Rather, as soon as SH Pilot is passed over for CR a court case the company could do without...one which they could lose...would probably occur.. Dogs breakfast...you bet.
Not really.

As a lot of people have now quite correctly predicted, CR will not be required, so any issue with a potential SH redundancy is avoided.
Enough have taken VR or will take early retirement or LWOP to reduce numbers to the forecast 2022/23 levels so no further redundancies needed. Remaining crew will be stood down until they are needed.
Thereíll still be a RIN needed for any 747 crew who didnít take VR or ER, but the training out of that will be well into the future.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 07:30
  #1286 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
Not really.

As a lot of people have now quite correctly predicted, CR will not be required, so any issue with a potential SH redundancy is avoided.
Enough have taken VR or will take early retirement or LWOP to reduce numbers to the forecast 2022/23 levels so no further redundancies needed. Remaining crew will be stood down until they are needed.
Thereíll still be a RIN needed for any 747 crew who didnít take VR or ER, but the training out of that will be well into the future.
How do you know that these numbers get them where they want to be and no further redundancy is needed? The word is the RIN will occur before years end as they wish to get the training done while the sim centre in Sydney is operating.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 08:08
  #1287 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Sydney
Age: 40
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Safe from CR ?

My goodness what are you guys smoking ? You don't have an industry atm & you got an 8% take up

Did you ever believe that very strange & interesting number of a surplus of 190 , that was bandied about months ago , it was a ridiculous number
would love to see the reasoning & the calcs behind that one. Likely many of the applicants were just about to retire & looking for a payday - no guarantee their app will be accepted

The one factor they forgot to take into account it would seem is Covid 19 - who actually did this calc and what were the assumptions made in that calc

Because it's either someone being a bit tricky or someone who has zero concept - "global aviation has ceased so that means we now have a critical surplus of 10%"
Or maybe just an ambit figure , deliberately a low-ball figure , sort of let's not let it out of the bag how diabolically bad things are right now.

You have approx 1500 LH pilots & you do not have a LH business , it has ceased completely & won't be back for years. How could you even begin to
measure the surplus there , but clearly it is at least 500 and the more hawkish managers would argue for a 50% cut

& you have approx 800 SH pilots & a skeleton service running at less than 5 % & it won't be back in any size for at least another year , so a couple of hundred there
also go

Standown's won't continue indefinitely that is why your managers have been pointing out to you that if you chose to take
lwop they will exercise their discretion & bypass you on CR. And why they have also cautioned you that if you are CR'd well
don't expect to stroll back on the premises like you own it , they may well require you to re-do selection

One guy said before if you take lwop the company washes their hands of you , not true you are still an employee. It is when you take VR or are CR'd
you are that occurs

Lots of stories here trying to promulgate the horrors of a return from lwop & all these horrible things that might occur to you. Very unlikely based on
how lwop (& there have been hundreds) have worked to date. I think the true nightmare would be waiting for re-employment as a CR , when QF opens to
externals again which you might be thinking is 2030

What is interesting is the looking down nose tone at people who are considering lwop , words used such as "jumping over" those more senior to you. That there
is something unethical or immoral about taking it. Do the joiners from early 2000s to GFC expect those who joined after 2016 to be the sacrificial lambs for them
- is that sort of the "honourable" thing to do ? Some kind of band of brothers , who are all noblemen

Stories abound about the four engine guys demanding to displace people on the other WB fleets - is that the act of a nobleman ?

CR is coming & the variable is the % , I think the % will be between 25 & 40% , primarily from the bottom of list , but with a
bit of fiddling around the edges , SH don't escape & some by base/fleet. Likely a more targeted VR will be offered again before end of year before CR
, smallish sweets added for targeted demographics

Anyone planning on banking two years of pay via CR , it aint gonna happen , they won't want to go much over 50 weeks pay , that keeps it to joiners this century

Out from me on this matter , both the naivety and hubris on display really quite incredible

& goodluck to all certainly a tough situation






Last edited by Telfer86; 12th Aug 2020 at 08:21.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 08:22
  #1288 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Australia
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A fair opinion piece.

However, stand downs are indefinite as needed and negotiations are still underway to manage the restart.

No re selection process after return from CR..but yes an onboarding chat where you don’t want to act like a fool.



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Old 12th Aug 2020, 08:25
  #1289 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
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You must be the life of a party.

Sorry - I didnít want to post here, but now we know the numbers and the junior crew are mostly safe itís time to put this to bed.

The only time to be worried is if QF announce fleet reductions. The VR&CR process will flow on from that.

Right now - itís the right sized fleet for when it gets going again. The A380 is the only elephant in the room. But Qantas own them outright and can afford it keep them mothballed. Itís just the crew thatís the issue. Luckily itís not hard to get them going on a 330 in the short term. Most would have flown it previously and are well and truly fluent in Airbus. As far as one can be.

My assessment is aviation will boom as soon thereís a vaccination. It wonít be far off. We are talking this year before we see it scaled up. Hopefully by Christmas (for vaccinations).

From there, consumer confidence will return and there will probably be a boom.


Originally Posted by Telfer86 View Post
Safe from CR ?

My goodness what are you guys smoking ? You don't have an industry atm & you got an 8% take up

Did you ever believe that very strange & interesting number of a surplus of 190 , that was bandied about months ago , it was a ridiculous number
would love to see the reasoning & the calcs behind that one. Likely many of the applicants were just about to retire & looking for a payday - no guarantee their app will be accepted

The one factor they forgot to take into account it would seem is Covid 19 - who actually did this calc and what were the assumptions made in that calc

Because it's either someone being a bit tricky or someone who has zero concept - "global aviation has ceased so that means we now have a critical surplus of 10%"

You have approx 1500 LH pilots & you do not have a LH business , it has ceased completely & won't be back for years. How could you even begin to
measure the surplus there , but clearly it is at least 500 and the more hawkish managers would argue for a 50% cut

& you have approx 800 SH pilots & a skeleton service running at less than 5 % & it won't be back in any size for at least another year , so a couple of hundred there
also go

Standown's won't continue indefinitely that is why your managers have been pointing out to you that if you chose to take
lwop they will exercise their discretion & bypass you on CR. And why they have also cautioned you that if you are CR'd well
don't expect to stroll back on the premises like you own it , they may well require you to re-do selection

One guy said before if you take lwop the company washes their hands of you , not true you are still an employee. It is when you take VR or are CR'd
you are that occurs

Lots of stories here trying to promulgate the horrors of a return from lwop & all these horrible things that might occur to you. Very unlikely based on
how lwop (& there have been hundreds) have worked to date. I think the true nightmare would be waiting for re-employment as a CR , when QF opens to
externals again which you might be thinking is 2030

What is interesting is the looking down nose tone at people who are considering lwop , words used such as "jumping over" those more senior to you. That there
is something unethical or immoral about taking it. Do the joiners from early 2000s to GFC expect those who joined after 2016 to be the sacrificial lambs for them
- is that sort of the "honourable" thing to do ? Some kind of band of brothers , who are all noblemen

Stories abound about the four engine guys demanding to displace people on the other WB fleets - is that the act of a nobleman ?

CR is coming & the variable is the % , I think the % will be between 25 & 40% , primarily from the bottom of list , but with a
bit of fiddling around the edges , SH don't escape & some by base/fleet. Likely a more targeted VR will be offered again before end of year before CR
, smallish sweets added for targeted demographics

Anyone planning on banking two years of pay via CR , it aint gonna happen , they won't want to go much over 50 weeks pay , that keeps it to joiners this century

Out from me on this matter , both the naivety and hubris on display really quite incredible

& goodluck to all certainly a tough situation
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 08:31
  #1290 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: The World
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Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
How do you know that these numbers get them where they want to be and no further redundancy is needed? The word is the RIN will occur before years end as they wish to get the training done while the sim centre in Sydney is operating.
On what fleet will line training take place?
Are instructors and pilots going to be stood up for training pilots who arenít needed this year when TLS has stated they want zero unnecessary cost?
A RIN may well happen this year. The training as a result of that RIN will not be for a long time.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 08:34
  #1291 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Sydney
Age: 40
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You don't have an industry, the aeroplanes are on the ground now , they are not in the air

But you believe you are "all safe" now

& further there will be vaccinations before Christmas - why is the Med/Science Profs all say two years from now is the best case
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 08:35
  #1292 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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Originally Posted by Telfer86 View Post
You don't have an industry, the aeroplanes are on the ground now , they are not in the air

But you believe you are "all safe" now

& further there will be vaccinations before Christmas - why is the Med/Science Profs all say two years from now is the best case
Why is probably why the COVID recovery plan is for a 2-3 year time frame not just the second half of this year.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 08:36
  #1293 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
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very strange & interesting number of a surplus of 190 , that was bandied about months ago , it was a ridiculous number
Relax Dorothy, that was number of pilots who were on the 747. The aircraft they retired at very short notice. Hardly a ridiculous number. The 737 doesn’t have anywhere near 800 mainline pilots on it.



Last edited by SandyPalms; 12th Aug 2020 at 09:06.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 08:38
  #1294 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
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One would have to take on board what Telfer has raised! AJ 3 year plan is out the window and he is coming up with another plan that will try and see QF survival past December 2021. is it about the week of August 24th the yearly is announced then there maybe some changes made to the group, sure as sh!t some big ones to international crew requirements. Only way out of this is a proven vaccine. I am not a Virologist but if anyone could comment on that, would end of 2021 be a reasonable assumption before any real effect of a vaccine is seen and rouge premiers unlock boarder restrictions?!

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Old 12th Aug 2020, 08:59
  #1295 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Unfortunately not the Orient
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Iím finding the rumour of VR only being confirmed if the proposed changes to the EA are voted in, a very confusing proposition. Presumedly the current pilots who have expressed their interest for VR would be able to vote on amendments to the EA, as they would still be employed and not redundant at the time if voting. However, under that scenario, they will be voting on reduced conditions for the whole LH pilot group, with a vested interest in a yes vote, but presuming a successful yes vote, they would never actually be subject to those reduced conditions. Not a criticism of the pilots, but if this is the proposal, surely that canít be a moral position for QF to take.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 09:00
  #1296 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: Oz
Posts: 5
Company debt levels now greater than VAís before administration. With future liabilities, employee entitlements etc surely debt must be north of 10 billion. Insufficient short to medium term revenue to service the debt. Maybe sell off frequent flyer program to buy some time. Big decisions will need to be made very soon. Vaccine canít come quick enough.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 09:04
  #1297 (permalink)  
 
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Telfer what are you smoking? Shorthaul is not on a 5% skeleton service, it’s been hit by the VIC lockdown but it’s at approx 22% atm. Sure still not much but 4 times your skeleton service which ended a couple of months ago mind you.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 09:09
  #1298 (permalink)  
 
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It's still a ridiculous number , almost a random number plucked from the Sky , well it is a random number plucked from the Sky

As I speculated above (correctly it turned out) it was a sans Covid 19 calculation from your illustrious pilot cum "now I am a senior corporate manager" brigade

Ignoring completely the outside world , sort of "we at Qantas are retiring our 747 fleet that makes us 190 in surplus given that is the company
of the 747 fleet". Bet you the figure wasn't from the real managers at QF ie: AJ , Tino , head of HR/Legal etc but from flight ops management

They forgot to include the effects of shutdown of international air travel , 10m plus infected , severe global recession , no vaccine , change in business travel etc etc

So if you have 1500 LH pilots at an airline and there is no international flying even planned for the next year & now even your own flight ops guys are mentioning nothing until 2024 , what is your surplus ?

How do you model that ?

Anyone want to have a got at deriving an equation ?
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 09:18
  #1299 (permalink)  
 
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Telfer has it spot on. 100%.

What are my thoughts? As predicted an under-subscribed VR program. An under subscribed equity raising attempt by Qantas to the tune of $430m. Whereís the money going to come from to pay for all those VRís now? The company doesnít even have to take all 188 of them. Even then we are still short for numbers.

Yes itís true I signed up under the EBA that says Ďlast on first offí. I also signed up to an EBA that says you may be bypassed for CR if on LWOP. The LWOP contract confirms this.

Donít ask me to be a sacrificial lamb. That wonít be happening. In fact, I havenít spoken to a single SO who isnít taking LWOP.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 09:26
  #1300 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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You are wise in the ways of science Telfer!

The length of a piece of string is twice half its length.

I would strongly suggest that the numbers you are commenting on were accurately predicted from a gigantic spreadsheet based on that one critically important and always accurate equation.

I have some sympathy for the teams of QF drones desperate to prove how important they are while the industry they slavishly create spreadsheets for, creates nothing less than the gargantuan debt required to pay their wages, but facts aren't really going to help much right now, are they?

Normo - why are you so aggressive all the time? You are NOT safe - no one is. But leave the attacks out of it. You've got no idea how much thought, effort and sacrifices went into protecting your position and you come and throw it in everyone's face. Repeatedly! Give it a break!
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