QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages
To add to the math, many of these crew would need about a week in the sim & on the line to fly the Maggot again. Putting further doubt to the companies claim that SH wouldn’t be touched. Much cheaper to get rid of a 1-3yr service SH FO via CR. The entire industry is in ‘Surplus’ right now.
Last edited by dr dre; 3rd Aug 2020 at 03:09.
You can be certain that seniority will play no part in this at all. It will be purely Type, Classification, Base, Age and the likelihood of a return to service in the near future.
Those made Redundant, won't be paid in full straight away, It'll be over a few years, unless it's voluntary, as much as it pains me to say, if you're much over 50 and on a type that is less likely to be returned to service any time soon, I would seriously consider the voluntary option.
This persistent ideology is a fine example of when having some knowledge is far more dangerous than having none. Bush lawyering reaching new heights.
Covid is a disaster for aviation. Flt Ops management I think are doing a good job. If people are not preparing for drastic change now, I don’t know what situation could be more severe that would warrant action. If people want to blame others for the way they feel, that’s their choice. Most people are getting on with life best they can. I’m not busy lawyering with these observations.
It is unfortunate forums like these give a microphone to uninformed, inaccurate and speculative thinking.
Should it turn out you are correct, like picking a hundred bagger penny stock, I’d say a genuine ‘well done’.
It is unfortunate forums like these give a microphone to uninformed, inaccurate and speculative thinking.
Should it turn out you are correct, like picking a hundred bagger penny stock, I’d say a genuine ‘well done’.
My opinion which is born out of personal experience is aimed more at the over 50's and particularly the over 55's
You have to survive covid first.
If you survive as a recovered, you must be restored to pre-covid health.
Then you can think about going back to work in a couple of years.
Be aware, ask any unemployed 55 year old on the street, age discrimination is alive and well.
I agree with your statement about the forums, I don't believe I'm one of them.
You have to survive covid first.
If you survive as a recovered, you must be restored to pre-covid health.
Then you can think about going back to work in a couple of years.
Be aware, ask any unemployed 55 year old on the street, age discrimination is alive and well.
I agree with your statement about the forums, I don't believe I'm one of them.
In 2015 they failed to get the numbers they wanted, I know because I was called and offered it two weeks after it closed. Personally I don’t think they will get 196 I’m guessing 150/160 but who knows. As I understand it the company is now saying the payment of VR is depended upon the changes they want in the EA getting up. Lastly, thanks to the incompetence of Comrade Andrews in Victoria the companies cash flow projections have been blown up . The 40% domestic flying by July 31 and 80% by xmas I feel are not going to happen. So, I think we are looking at more redundancies through the whole group.
If you want to believe it's that easy to simply perform that action go ahead. There's significant training and operational line readiness issues now. You're talking about a group of people who haven't been in the particular aircraft for years and haven't been in an aircraft at all for what will probably be over 12 months. Whilst one pilot in those circumstances, away from aviation for years, could come back on line into an environment where their colleagues have been active on the fleet in the meantime, you're talking about retraining en masse a significant proportion of the fleet, to pilots who have been out of the loop for a long time.
I sense some here may be under-estimating the scale of this economic shock. We have to go back at least 90 years to find something this big. Some data suggests significantly further back
https://www.ft.com/content/734e604b-...c-19e8b22dad3c
Australia faces extra challenges against this global backdrop
1. In the 1920's, UK dominated Australia's trade. Today, it is China - and China is making it clear that it will bring economic pain to any country that criticises it.
2. Back then we had a diversified economy and were fairly self-reliant. The major parts of our economy today are
a) importing migrants (to keep wages low)
b) overseas "students" (often also with work rights) - gone for the foreseeable future
b) buying and selling houses to each other
c) iron ore - China is looking towards Brazil (building 4 ports for very large ore carriers that are too big for Australia, but the economy of scale will work for Brazil) and Africa
d) agriculture - less than previously, and already some limited export restrictions
e) financial services - which are being hard hit
3. We are living in a geopolitically complex area
Anyone thinking this is going to bounce back quickly is (I believe) seriously mistaken.
These 3 podcasts are well worth listening to.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...y-disposition/
https://www.ft.com/content/734e604b-...c-19e8b22dad3c
Australia faces extra challenges against this global backdrop
1. In the 1920's, UK dominated Australia's trade. Today, it is China - and China is making it clear that it will bring economic pain to any country that criticises it.
2. Back then we had a diversified economy and were fairly self-reliant. The major parts of our economy today are
a) importing migrants (to keep wages low)
b) overseas "students" (often also with work rights) - gone for the foreseeable future
b) buying and selling houses to each other
c) iron ore - China is looking towards Brazil (building 4 ports for very large ore carriers that are too big for Australia, but the economy of scale will work for Brazil) and Africa
d) agriculture - less than previously, and already some limited export restrictions
e) financial services - which are being hard hit
3. We are living in a geopolitically complex area
Anyone thinking this is going to bounce back quickly is (I believe) seriously mistaken.
These 3 podcasts are well worth listening to.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...y-disposition/
With the sheer enormity of the COVID19 pandemic’s economic impact only starting to dawn, David Llewellyn Smith and Leith Van Onselen spoke with Gunnamatta on the major forms the shock has taken through the Australian economy. Over the course of about 75 minutes (3 parts) they cover the ugly numbers and the dynamics across employment, households, spending and debt serviceability, with implications for wages, real estate, government outlays and the strategic policy implications these encompass. It isn’t pretty
The main difference is that under NZ employment law, there is no stand down provisions, so any LWOP must be negotiated by the company and employees, otherwise employees must remain on full pay. The only stand down provisions are for factory workers who may have an annual stand down to cover maintenance periods, however such time periods of the stand down must be in the employment agreement and the pay rate applicability during that time is also stated, annual leave is not permitted to be used to cover the stand down, and stand downs are not permitted to be unpaid.
When it came to this stand down the QF group basically told its NZ based staff to take LWOP, or be made redundant. They weren’t the only Australian based company to try and pull that trick in NZ during the Covid situation. The courts have already decided for one company the agreement for LWOP with a threat of redundancy is illegal and full back pay must be paid with an extra harm payment of $12,000 per affected employee handed down.
Since the precedent has been made in the court, and MBIE have also fined that company just over $1.2M on top of the court directed costs, it will be interesting to see how the unions deal with the QF group. I understand that MBIE are taking a very hard line with companies who fail to comply with NZ employment law during this time.
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These 3 podcasts are well worth listening to.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...y-disposition/
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...y-disposition/
One of the problems with any group is confirmation bias. Everyone in the group sees things the same way and confirms each other’s perspective.
Airline pilots are young (with lots of productive years ahead of them) or older (on well above median incomes). This means the opinions of the group may not be generalisable to wider society.
This is an overview of what is happening (and therefore what is likely to happen next). It’s not pretty.
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/...-soup-to-nuts/
Even after we get the virus under control, the economy will be very subdued for a long time.
In my mid-50’s, I am now re-evaluating the last 10 years of my career. Lots of thinking to do.
Airline pilots are young (with lots of productive years ahead of them) or older (on well above median incomes). This means the opinions of the group may not be generalisable to wider society.
This is an overview of what is happening (and therefore what is likely to happen next). It’s not pretty.
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/...-soup-to-nuts/
Even after we get the virus under control, the economy will be very subdued for a long time.
In my mid-50’s, I am now re-evaluating the last 10 years of my career. Lots of thinking to do.
We are currently looking at 196 redundancy's in mainline. And from what I am hearing, there hasn't been much interest in the VR package.
If it's from anecdotal sources, I'm hearing the opposite.
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was that 196 before Vic hard lock down and before QLD shut for an undetermined time? I would think QF and JQ will be crunching some numbers now and it will not be pretty. Even Domestic will struggle now into the new year as unemployment sky rockets in Victoria.
4-6 months after full lockdowns other nations have resumed quite substantial parts of domestic networks, it will follow suit in Australia too.
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The timeline for the fleet requirements and employment numbers, as announced openly to the ASX in which you’re all free to read, is for a 3 year recovery plan, with the surplus numbers based on the predicted network in mid 2022, a full 2 years away. So unless they’re changing plans on what’s happening beyond 2/3 years the current numbers apply. If there’s any interim change in requirements domestically then stand downs will manage that problem, and no further surplus is forecast. I don’t think anyone expects domestic travel restrictions to exist in 2 years.
4-6 months after full lockdowns other nations have resumed quite substantial parts of domestic networks, it will follow suit in Australia too.
4-6 months after full lockdowns other nations have resumed quite substantial parts of domestic networks, it will follow suit in Australia too.
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The timeline for the fleet requirements and employment numbers, as announced openly to the ASX in which you’re all free to read, is for a 3 year recovery plan, with the surplus numbers based on the predicted network in mid 2022, a full 2 years away. So unless they’re changing plans on what’s happening beyond 2/3 years the current numbers apply. If there’s any interim change in requirements domestically then stand downs will manage that problem, and no further surplus is forecast. I don’t think anyone expects domestic travel restrictions to exist in 2 years.
4-6 months after full lockdowns other nations have resumed quite substantial parts of domestic networks, it will follow suit in Australia too.
4-6 months after full lockdowns other nations have resumed quite substantial parts of domestic networks, it will follow suit in Australia too.
At least with the latest out of Victoria they have given a date wether they can stick to it remains to be seen.
Worth a read.
Embrace change, or it will embrace you
The structural changes of COVID-19
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...s-of-covid-19/
Embrace change, or it will embrace you
The structural changes of COVID-19
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...s-of-covid-19/
Our ongoing list of how countries are reopening, and which ones remain under lockdown
So whilst we may not know the exact date life will return to normal in Victoria and when something resembling a familiar domestic network will resume, I’m fairly confident that the time interval will be measured in months, not years.