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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

Old 2nd Aug 2020, 00:40
  #1161 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
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Originally Posted by Ragnor View Post
I’m at JQ I think CR For QF and JQ will be a last resort due to cost. Although JQ EBA is worded differently, 787 pilots or more senior pilots at other bases don’t have a EBA right to displace junior pilots in the bases that will survive this pandemic This will come at JQ discretion. Cost will be the over riding factor for both QF and JQ I’m not 100% of the cost to a business to have crews stood down but be much cheaper than a CR and then the cost of down training as required for QF then the cost of re hire those pilots when it picks up. As stated before one certainty in all of this, it will all come back the question is when.
everyone is just clutching at straws with CR it would have happend by now if it were as seen at AirNZ and other world airlines.
It's nice to think that. I kind of agree that cost should be the main factor. Yet long time posters here forget who we are dealing with. How much money has Allan wasted on Jetstar ventures, Red Q, lock downs etc? He's happy to waste hundreds of millions to spite pilots and get his way. Never forget that.
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 01:26
  #1162 (permalink)  
 
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What pilots view as being screwed, CEO/Board of Directors view as logical business sense. They are not out to screw you, to do so doesn't make any logical business sense.
Given the magnitude of this event though, probably isn't going to change the way you feel that you have been or about to be treated.
What normanton is saying is pretty much right as blunt and as ugly as that is.

You can be certain that seniority will play no part in this at all. It will be purely Type, Classification, Base, Age and the likelihood of a return to service in the near future.

Those made Redundant, won't be paid in full straight away, It'll be over a few years, unless it's voluntary, as much as it pains me to say, if you're much over 50 and on a type that is less likely to be returned to service any time soon, I would seriously consider the voluntary option.
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 01:31
  #1163 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by normanton View Post
If the LH EBA didn't have stand down provisions in the EBA, everyone would be on full base pay and we would have had 500 redundancy's 3 months ago.
You truly are out of your depth here. Fair Work Act s524. If you don't understand the relationship and hierarchy between your own contract and the FWA then STOP GOSSIPING.


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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 01:39
  #1164 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ConfigFull View Post
You truly are out of your depth here. Fair Work Act s524. If you don't understand the relationship and hierarchy between your own contract and the FWA then STOP GOSSIPING.
Well said that person
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 01:49
  #1165 (permalink)  
 
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You are absolutely missing my point; airlines around the world are being forced to pay staff wages as local employment law doesn't allow for stand downs on no pay. Qantas are exceptionally lucky in that they exist in a country where they can stand down people on no pay, standing down staff on no pay should also come with some responsibility to those staff. The SLWOP deal to me was acceptable in the circumstances, I just find it unbelievable that when Qantas is in the position of not having to pay wages or make people redundant they then come after the only thing that is giving people a small amount of financial relief, and that is the leave accrual. The 2 days a month are not going to be the make or break for Qantas, but it did provide a small lifeline to many of the workers, this recover will be build on the broken finances and destroyed lives of the workers, now if I had any faith that when we are through the other side we may get some of that back then all well and good but we won't. We will see massive bonuses for the management team for seeing us through the crisis and a huge gain in their wealth for all the shares they take in lieu of wages. But as I say if you are willing to offer your 2 days of leave back to the company in some misguiding understanding that we are all 'one team' helping out then that is up to you. And Ragnor, 7 FO's in NZ got their letters in the last week informing them that the Company is proceeding with their redundancies after the union offered any cost savings required to stave off redundancies. Qantas is now using this as an industrial tool to drive down conditions permanently, they will screw over the employees at the drop of a hat and are already showing that, as I have said I will be back working shortly but I am still concerned about those that aren't and just how brutal the company is being. You all say Air NZ has unlimited government funding, they don't, Qantas and Virgin are doing very nicely from the minimum government network at the moment, many airlines around the world are worse off than Qantas but are still managing to pay those who stay on a little bit of money. Yes it would suck to be one of the 250 who went at Air NZ but at least they got a lump sum and will be the first to be back employed.
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 01:56
  #1166 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Poto View Post
To add to the math, many of these crew would need about a week in the sim & on the line to fly the Maggot again. Putting further doubt to the companies claim that SH wouldn’t be touched. Much cheaper to get rid of a 1-3yr service SH FO via CR. The entire industry is in ‘Surplus’ right now.
If you want to believe it's that easy to simply perform that action go ahead. There's significant training and operational line readiness issues now. You're talking about a group of people who haven't been in the particular aircraft for years and haven't been in an aircraft at all for what will probably be over 12 months. Whilst one pilot in those circumstances, away from aviation for years, could come back on line into an environment where their colleagues have been active on the fleet in the meantime, you're talking about retraining en masse a significant proportion of the fleet, to pilots who have been out of the loop for a long time. Not going to happen, if the company don't say no then CASA surely will.

Originally Posted by normanton View Post
We are currently looking at 196 redundancy's in mainline. And from what I am hearing, there hasn't been much interest in the VR package.
That one I doubt. In 2014 (when the aviation industry didn't come to a halt and there was ample opportunity for those in the VR interest bracket to remain flying until retirement age, and the VR eligibility was limited to only 2 fleets) they still got around 60 applicants. Today there will be no opportunity at all for those on the 380 for a minimum 3 years, and on the 747 for an indeterminate number of years, to return to flying. They'll probably reach 200 with those two fleets alone, and there'll be a number of 330 and 787 pilots who want it as well. I've heard pilots as young as early to mid 50's from various fleets are seriously considering the package.

Last edited by dr dre; 3rd Aug 2020 at 03:09.
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 01:57
  #1167 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post

You can be certain that seniority will play no part in this at all. It will be purely Type, Classification, Base, Age and the likelihood of a return to service in the near future.

Those made Redundant, won't be paid in full straight away, It'll be over a few years, unless it's voluntary, as much as it pains me to say, if you're much over 50 and on a type that is less likely to be returned to service any time soon, I would seriously consider the voluntary option.
Good to see ‘special’ packages still find their way to you despite the Covid restrictions.

This persistent ideology is a fine example of when having some knowledge is far more dangerous than having none. Bush lawyering reaching new heights.
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 02:11
  #1168 (permalink)  
 
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you left out the part where I said it isn't going to change the way you feel you have been or about to be treated
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 02:26
  #1169 (permalink)  
 
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Covid is a disaster for aviation. Flt Ops management I think are doing a good job. If people are not preparing for drastic change now, I don’t know what situation could be more severe that would warrant action. If people want to blame others for the way they feel, that’s their choice. Most people are getting on with life best they can. I’m not busy lawyering with these observations.

It is unfortunate forums like these give a microphone to uninformed, inaccurate and speculative thinking.

Should it turn out you are correct, like picking a hundred bagger penny stock, I’d say a genuine ‘well done’.



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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 02:40
  #1170 (permalink)  
 
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My opinion which is born out of personal experience is aimed more at the over 50's and particularly the over 55's
You have to survive covid first.
If you survive as a recovered, you must be restored to pre-covid health.
Then you can think about going back to work in a couple of years.
Be aware, ask any unemployed 55 year old on the street, age discrimination is alive and well.

I agree with your statement about the forums, I don't believe I'm one of them.
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 02:58
  #1171 (permalink)  
 
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In 2015 they failed to get the numbers they wanted, I know because I was called and offered it two weeks after it closed. Personally I don’t think they will get 196 I’m guessing 150/160 but who knows. As I understand it the company is now saying the payment of VR is depended upon the changes they want in the EA getting up. Lastly, thanks to the incompetence of Comrade Andrews in Victoria the companies cash flow projections have been blown up . The 40% domestic flying by July 31 and 80% by xmas I feel are not going to happen. So, I think we are looking at more redundancies through the whole group.
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 03:37
  #1172 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
If you want to believe it's that easy to simply perform that action go ahead. There's significant training and operational line readiness issues now. You're talking about a group of people who haven't been in the particular aircraft for years and haven't been in an aircraft at all for what will probably be over 12 months. Whilst one pilot in those circumstances, away from aviation for years, could come back on line into an environment where their colleagues have been active on the fleet in the meantime, you're talking about retraining en masse a significant proportion of the fleet, to pilots who have been out of the loop for a long time.
Every Stood down Pilot is that same position. Much retraining required for all. So many Ex SH pilots in LH now with thousands of 737 hours. A considerable amount newly trained to the 787. CASA is not going to ‘Stop this’ hypothetical outcome. I am pointing out that the cost issue TLS proclaims is a fallacy. Cheaper to CR a junior SH than a more senior LH. And the retraining can will be kicked well down the road into another fiscal year.
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 04:27
  #1173 (permalink)  
 
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I sense some here may be under-estimating the scale of this economic shock. We have to go back at least 90 years to find something this big. Some data suggests significantly further back
https://www.ft.com/content/734e604b-...c-19e8b22dad3c

Australia faces extra challenges against this global backdrop
1. In the 1920's, UK dominated Australia's trade. Today, it is China - and China is making it clear that it will bring economic pain to any country that criticises it.
2. Back then we had a diversified economy and were fairly self-reliant. The major parts of our economy today are
a) importing migrants (to keep wages low)
b) overseas "students" (often also with work rights) - gone for the foreseeable future
b) buying and selling houses to each other
c) iron ore - China is looking towards Brazil (building 4 ports for very large ore carriers that are too big for Australia, but the economy of scale will work for Brazil) and Africa
d) agriculture - less than previously, and already some limited export restrictions
e) financial services - which are being hard hit
3. We are living in a geopolitically complex area

Anyone thinking this is going to bounce back quickly is (I believe) seriously mistaken.

These 3 podcasts are well worth listening to.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...y-disposition/
With the sheer enormity of the COVID19 pandemic’s economic impact only starting to dawn, David Llewellyn Smith and Leith Van Onselen spoke with Gunnamatta on the major forms the shock has taken through the Australian economy. Over the course of about 75 minutes (3 parts) they cover the ugly numbers and the dynamics across employment, households, spending and debt serviceability, with implications for wages, real estate, government outlays and the strategic policy implications these encompass. It isn’t pretty
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 04:35
  #1174 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...gapore-list-10
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 05:07
  #1175 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
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Originally Posted by Telfer86 View Post
Air New Zealand is a state owned enterprise that has already been bailed out from bankruptcy once this century by NZ government
Under NZ Law, AirNZ is not a SOE, an SOE requires 100% government ownership and would not be listed on the NZX or ASX. Yes the government did own 75% until the mid 2010s, until the government sold down its shareholding to around 50%. An SOE will require a Government minister to appoint the board and would report solely to the government, not to the public.

The main difference is that under NZ employment law, there is no stand down provisions, so any LWOP must be negotiated by the company and employees, otherwise employees must remain on full pay. The only stand down provisions are for factory workers who may have an annual stand down to cover maintenance periods, however such time periods of the stand down must be in the employment agreement and the pay rate applicability during that time is also stated, annual leave is not permitted to be used to cover the stand down, and stand downs are not permitted to be unpaid.

When it came to this stand down the QF group basically told its NZ based staff to take LWOP, or be made redundant. They weren’t the only Australian based company to try and pull that trick in NZ during the Covid situation. The courts have already decided for one company the agreement for LWOP with a threat of redundancy is illegal and full back pay must be paid with an extra harm payment of $12,000 per affected employee handed down.

Since the precedent has been made in the court, and MBIE have also fined that company just over $1.2M on top of the court directed costs, it will be interesting to see how the unions deal with the QF group. I understand that MBIE are taking a very hard line with companies who fail to comply with NZ employment law during this time.
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 08:07
  #1176 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
These 3 podcasts are well worth listening to.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...y-disposition/
Fantastic recommendation. Thanks!
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Old 2nd Aug 2020, 22:45
  #1177 (permalink)  
 
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One of the problems with any group is confirmation bias. Everyone in the group sees things the same way and confirms each other’s perspective.

Airline pilots are young (with lots of productive years ahead of them) or older (on well above median incomes). This means the opinions of the group may not be generalisable to wider society.

This is an overview of what is happening (and therefore what is likely to happen next). It’s not pretty.

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/...-soup-to-nuts/

Even after we get the virus under control, the economy will be very subdued for a long time.

In my mid-50’s, I am now re-evaluating the last 10 years of my career. Lots of thinking to do.

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Old 3rd Aug 2020, 00:19
  #1178 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
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We are currently looking at 196 redundancy's in mainline. And from what I am hearing, there hasn't been much interest in the VR package.
If that's from 'official' sources then it's probably because most are still evaluating the estimate with their accountants and the like. Two weeks is not a long time to evaluate the package if your professional help can't fit you in until this week due to their workload. Many are probably leaving the final decision until late this week when they have digested all of the many ramifications of accepting or rejecting the offer.
If it's from anecdotal sources, I'm hearing the opposite.
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Old 3rd Aug 2020, 02:07
  #1179 (permalink)  
 
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was that 196 before Vic hard lock down and before QLD shut for an undetermined time? I would think QF and JQ will be crunching some numbers now and it will not be pretty. Even Domestic will struggle now into the new year as unemployment sky rockets in Victoria.
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Old 3rd Aug 2020, 03:08
  #1180 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ragnor View Post
was that 196 before Vic hard lock down and before QLD shut for an undetermined time? I would think QF and JQ will be crunching some numbers now and it will not be pretty. Even Domestic will struggle now into the new year as unemployment sky rockets in Victoria.
The timeline for the fleet requirements and employment numbers, as announced openly to the ASX in which you’re all free to read, is for a 3 year recovery plan, with the surplus numbers based on the predicted network in mid 2022, a full 2 years away. So unless they’re changing plans on what’s happening beyond 2/3 years the current numbers apply. If there’s any interim change in requirements domestically then stand downs will manage that problem, and no further surplus is forecast. I don’t think anyone expects domestic travel restrictions to exist in 2 years.

4-6 months after full lockdowns other nations have resumed quite substantial parts of domestic networks, it will follow suit in Australia too.
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