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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

Old 13th Jul 2020, 22:46
  #741 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Budapest
Posts: 55
Possibly nominating a 3 year period for the A380 is really just another ‘smokescreen’ by the company. A RIN is still required for the B747(but much smaller one due to the offered VR plan). If they were also to add that the A380 would also be retired, the associated RIN or VR/ CR would become very expensive for the company! Post Covid, right aircraft for the right route will become paramount! We really don’t know what aviation will be like in 6 months , so announcing 3 years is very suspect.
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Old 13th Jul 2020, 23:21
  #742 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 82
Originally Posted by Keg
Koizi et al, sit on your hands. Your accrued leave is less than 12% of your total income. For a S/O with less than three years in that’s about $15K per annum? 200 S/Os taking LWOP saves $3 million. That’s a rounding error!
I'd love to follow that advice, as I would be keen to take on any trickle of work and don't need the generous certainty that LWOP offers
However, with the sword of Damocles rising higher and higher up the seniority ladder with every other SO that takes LWOP, I feel most of us post 2016 graduates have only one certain choice.

Last edited by Koizi; 14th Jul 2020 at 01:10.
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Old 13th Jul 2020, 23:26
  #743 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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Originally Posted by QJB View Post
If this is the case, what effect will that have on potential CR’s? Would that surplus of more senior pilots push the bottom guys and girls into CR a couple of years from now? Hope it never happens for everyone’s sake.
A “couple of years from now” is unpredictable. Worldwide some airliners remained in storage for up to 9 years post GFC before being reactivated. It’s complex enough now to plan a RIN, but for the next 3 years when no one knows what will happen? Management have indicated that stand downs will continue whilst the fleet is stood down. As long as they are not retiring aircraft, like what was announced with the 747, then nothing changes from the forecast that has provided 190 pilots in surplus (that is the forecast til mid 2022).

Something that will have to be considered is the fact whilst pilots on long term stand down will probably return to flying, after having spent several years off coming back to flying won’t just be a matter of a few sims and off they go. The retraining will be extensive, and not just for individuals, we’re talking about entire fleets of pilots including instructors who haven’t been operational for a considerable length of time.
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Old 13th Jul 2020, 23:46
  #744 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
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You would guess that a return to “normal” traffic would be slow and incremental though, so a fleet-wide recency problem should be manageable given enough forethought.

I am not reading anything currently that suggests a robust travel recovery absent a vaccine, even if immunisation is something that may have to be boosted periodically. I fear that we haven’t seen the entire SarsCoV-2 bag of tricks quite yet.
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 01:44
  #745 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 293
Any RIN is fairly irrelevant at this time, as it will only occur on paper.
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 02:23
  #746 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Originally Posted by Wingspar View Post
A quote from AJ;
The A380 is a crucial part of our long-haul fleet and this upgrade program will see customers enjoy everything the aircraft has to offer for years to come.”
Admittedly before Covid but a big call to write off the fleet with six newly refurbished aircraft done. Effectively a new aircraft with the latest cabin, IFE etc.
The A380 is a unique asset. QF doesn’t have any replacement in terms of capacity or cabin i.e. First Class!
Everyone else is parking their old ones so QF would be wise to keep these spiffy newly refurbed ones available to monopolise routes i.e. USA.
Pity they are just about to send off most of the A380 crew away with a golden hand shake??
I suspect that QF will have to write the cost of the A380 upper deck upgrade as a badly timed investment. This virus has such a stranglehold throughout the world that it can’t be contained until a vaccine is released and thus, any international traffic for the next few years will be a fraction of the 2019 level and will be “point to point”. This means that aircraft such as the B787, A350, A330NEO & even the A321XLR will be the most suitable types. Working against the A380 coming back into service is the fact that it was designed as a “hub to hub” aircraft, it has a very high fuel consumption, extremely high maintenance costs and the loads/fares won’t be high enough to offset these issues.

There was an article recently detailing the amount of work that A380’s require whilst in storage (mainly focussed on the SQ A380’s in Alice Springs but detailed the manufacturer’s requirements) and it is very significant. If all 12 QF A380’s get parked in Victorville, then there would be sufficient full time work for at least two of the LAX based engineers (relocate or have a lengthy commute each day). It would be worth monitoring if this ongoing maintenance is being performed because, if it stops, it signals that management have made the decision not to bring them back into service. Another scenario is that they may only maintain the aircraft that have had the recent upgrade.

In Oz, aircraft are written off over 12 years so, the early delivered aircraft would now have no value on the company books and, as we’ve known for a long time, there is zero market for second hand A380’s. For the remaining aircraft in the fleet there would be some residual book value which could be used by Joyce to increase the company’s FY loss (may be delayed a year or two to get the best timing) and then orchestrate a second miraculous turnaround - imagine the bonus he could reward himself for doing that.

cynphil - I totally agree.

Bodie 1 - do you still want to make a bet?
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 02:38
  #747 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
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Bodie 1 - do you still want to make a bet?
Yes,

Willing to put money in escrow.

I'm making this bet based on the fact that the aviation industry is entirely irrational. (I can back that up by research).
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 02:53
  #748 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Melbourne
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Originally Posted by Bodie1 View Post
Yes,

Willing to put money in escrow.

I'm making this bet based on the fact that the aviation industry is entirely irrational. (I can back that up by research).
Irrational is a great word. That is exactly the view senior management and many other segments of the airline have on our working conditions. Never say never but the A380 is finished or at least the sky gods that fly them will never fly them again under our current award conditions. The restructuring will cost 1 billion and investors are already on board and happy to spend that money on getting rid of unnecessary staff and aircraft. There will be no turning back. The airline will be much smaller on the other side. The sky gods should just be grateful for extracting years out of what has been an unbelievable gravy train.
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 03:12
  #749 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 490
Has anyone actually met one of these sky gods?
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 03:18
  #750 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Sydney
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Why would QF pay millions of dollars to dust off the A380 in three years? Its' a white elephant now, let alone in a world where other airlines will be backing out of they A350 purchase contracts left & right. It's dead, it just doesn't know it yet. The 350-900 & 1000 is a superior choice in every way.
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 04:20
  #751 (permalink)  
 
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Apparently the humidity is much less in Arizona compared to Alice Springs.
Do you have any source for "apparently"?

Two minutes on the internet shows the opposite to be the case. Alice Springs is much less humid than Mojave.

https://weather-and-climate.com/aver...tes-of-America

https://weather-and-climate.com/aver...ings,Australia
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 05:08
  #752 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
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I guess you can thank AJs predecessor for not buying the trippler

You are now left with valueless junk & pissed another $500 million up against the wall on upgrade

Strange how QF still persist with the line "couldn't make a 777 work"

Tough times no doubt - QF do not have an international business , but it "might" commence 12 months from now

Joiners from 2016 onward ihmo should stop listening to living legends on PPRuNe who have decades on seniority & take LWOP

CRs are coming to the QF pilot group and the number will be in four figures - really just similar % to Kiwis/ BA / AirCan
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 05:09
  #753 (permalink)  
YRP
 
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They have moisture in Alice Springs?
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 05:15
  #754 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Telfer86 View Post

CRs are coming to the QF pilot group and the number will be in four figures - really just similar % to Kiwis/ BA / AirCan
Or people should realise Australia isn’t in the same situation because a legal provision to stand down employees exists here, whereas it doesn’t in many other countries.

There’ll be no more than 190 positions in surplus if no firm fleet changes are announced. Those numbers are based on the forecast of what will be needed in mid 2022.
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 05:21
  #755 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Telfer86 View Post
CRs are coming to the QF pilot group and the number will be in four figures - really just similar % to Kiwis/ BA / AirCan
So you reckon that more than one thousand LH for CR. That’s pushing into well into LH FO territory.

Gonna be expensive...


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Old 14th Jul 2020, 05:34
  #756 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by YRP View Post
They have moisture in Alice Springs?
Yes they do YRP, prob 80 VB.
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 05:42
  #757 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ruprecht View Post
So you reckon that more than one thousand LH for CR. That’s pushing into well into LH FO territory.

Gonna be expensive...
Even higher when you consider every LH SO will apply for LWOP and thus be passed over for CR.
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 05:47
  #758 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
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About one third wouldn't it be (& that would be inclusive of the inevitable SH redundancies)

Do you really think QF is going to start CR LH guys from over a decade ago while SH FOs who have
been around for five minutes are "protected" & retain their jobs

Not gonna happen , there is one seniority list & there is a surplus in both divisions now

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Old 14th Jul 2020, 05:51
  #759 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: The Peninsula
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CRs are coming to the QF pilot group and the number will be in four figures
Man this is awesome, I'll take a bet on this as well.

"We'll all be rooned" said Hanrahan.

I've lost my flying job, career path has been severely mis-directed and yet I know this will pass, the world will re-bound and dare I say it, Qantas WILL hire pilots in the future. The only threat to all of this are the inbreeds that swear the world is ending.
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Old 14th Jul 2020, 06:04
  #760 (permalink)  
 
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I can't say whether there will be 380s flying again but I suspect if they do fly, it will only be the re-configured aircraft.

Also, considering the hundreds of engineering staff to be made redundant, the capability to service a full fleet will also be diminished. Sydney I hear are losing 300 from engineering and over 600 in total across the group.
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