Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Worldwide > Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
Reload this Page >

QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

Old 13th Jul 2020, 09:46
  #741 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: The Peninsula
Posts: 188
They'll be back.
Bodie1 is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 09:52
  #742 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: centre of my universe
Posts: 283
They Should be back. If not they are with all the other QF Jets that never came back
Poto is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 09:53
  #743 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 329
Will they be back? I don’t know.
Back in January I didn’t know that the whole aviation industry would be shut down in a few months either.
Does anyone know what aviation will be like next January?
What I do know is that by then Qantas won’t have enough A380 Captains if they do want to reactivate them.
Infact Qantas won’t have a sizeable chunk of their senior Captains?
And they can’t get them back either!
Silly??
Wingspar is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 10:05
  #744 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Posts: 143
I’d say QF have made the smart play here. They don’t have to move them anywhere if they never come back. In my stupid opinion we won’t see them again. This pandemic has already taken away so much from an industry that we all love dearly.
Jeps is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 10:51
  #745 (permalink)  
Keg

Nunc est bibendum
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Sydney, Australia
Posts: 5,307
I reckon Qantas want the A380s back. The longer this goes on the less likely that is though. I suspect Qantas will invest in them for the next couple of years in the hope they’ll be needed and kick the can on making a final decision down the road for a while.

There are about 50 A380 Captains over 60. Half the number of A380 Captains so about 6 aeroplanes worth. They could bring back 6 A380s and still not need additional crew. Probably enough notice to train up other crew if they intend on bringing additional A380s back.

There are 44 A330 Captains over 60. About 18% of the total A330 Captains. Similarly I reckon the ramp up would be slow enough that we’d be able to cover for the additional crew if eventually all the A330s are required.
Keg is online now  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 11:02
  #746 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 329
All good points Keg!
Its all a guess isn’t it?
My point is that once those highly trained, qualified line Captains are gone they’re gone!
Can’t get them back if they wanted to. Take time to train up other crew. Take time to replace the replacements.
Who knows???
Wingspar is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 11:18
  #747 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: OZ
Posts: 136
When has Qantas ever got their Pilot numbers right?
OBNO is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 11:22
  #748 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sincity
Posts: 1,078
Originally Posted by OBNO View Post
When has Qantas ever got their Pilot numbers right?
there was one month back in 2006 that i recall
maggot is online now  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 11:32
  #749 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: M.I.A.
Posts: 177
Originally Posted by Wingspar View Post
My point is that once those highly trained, qualified line Captains are gone they’re gone!
Can’t get them back if they wanted to. Take time to train up other crew. Take time to replace the replacements.
With 3 years to plan I don’t think time is really a factor.
It’s not as through the 380 crew that may finally get stood up will just shave off their beards and step onto a flightdeck anyway.
Bug Smasher Smasher is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 12:24
  #750 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: australia
Posts: 705
Originally Posted by Bug Smasher Smasher View Post
With 3 years to plan I don’t think time is really a factor.
It’s not as through the 380 crew that may finally get stood up will just shave off their beards and step onto a flightdeck anyway.
Find it cute anyone would use the word "plan" at this stage of happenings.
Hope, anticipate, extrapolate, propose, target, project and a whole bunch of other words maybe - but "plan"?

Parallel universe.

Cheers
galdian is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 12:33
  #751 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: I prefer to remain north of a direct line BNE-ADL
Age: 45
Posts: 1,133
I find it comical that anyone really believes the A380 will come back...in your dreams! Gone baby forever and there won’t be a send off because they have been a complete distaster financially for QF since they arrived...
Angle of Attack is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 15:02
  #752 (permalink)  
QJB
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 92
Originally Posted by Angle of Attack View Post
I find it comical that anyone really believes the A380 will come back...in your dreams! Gone baby forever and there won’t be a send off because they have been a complete distaster financially for QF since they arrived...
If this is the case, what effect will that have on potential CR’s? Would that surplus of more senior pilots push the bottom guys and girls into CR a couple of years from now? Hope it never happens for everyone’s sake.
QJB is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 16:10
  #753 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: The Peninsula
Posts: 188
I find it comical that anyone really believes the A380 will come back
Wanna bet?
Bodie1 is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 21:33
  #754 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 329
A quote from AJ;

The A380 is a crucial part of our long-haul fleet and this upgrade program will see customers enjoy everything the aircraft has to offer for years to come.”

Admittedly before Covid but a big call to write off the fleet with six newly refurbished aircraft done. Effectively a new aircraft with the latest cabin, IFE etc.
The A380 is a unique asset. QF doesn’t have any replacement in terms of capacity or cabin i.e. First Class!
Everyone else is parking their old ones so QF would be wise to keep these spiffy newly refurbed ones available to monopolise routes i.e. USA.
Pity they are just about to send off most of the A380 crew away with a golden hand shake??
Are you going to update your LOP Keg?
Wingspar is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 21:46
  #755 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Budapest
Posts: 43
Possibly nominating a 3 year period for the A380 is really just another ‘smokescreen’ by the company. A RIN is still required for the B747(but much smaller one due to the offered VR plan). If they were also to add that the A380 would also be retired, the associated RIN or VR/ CR would become very expensive for the company! Post Covid, right aircraft for the right route will become paramount! We really don’t know what aviation will be like in 6 months , so announcing 3 years is very suspect.
cynphil is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 22:21
  #756 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 79
Originally Posted by Keg
Koizi et al, sit on your hands. Your accrued leave is less than 12% of your total income. For a S/O with less than three years in that’s about $15K per annum? 200 S/Os taking LWOP saves $3 million. That’s a rounding error!
I'd love to follow that advice, as I would be keen to take on any trickle of work and don't need the generous certainty that LWOP offers
However, with the sword of Damocles rising higher and higher up the seniority ladder with every other SO that takes LWOP, I feel most of us post 2016 graduates have only one certain choice.

Last edited by Koizi; 14th Jul 2020 at 00:10.
Koizi is offline  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 22:26
  #757 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: The World
Posts: 898
Originally Posted by QJB View Post
If this is the case, what effect will that have on potential CR’s? Would that surplus of more senior pilots push the bottom guys and girls into CR a couple of years from now? Hope it never happens for everyone’s sake.
A “couple of years from now” is unpredictable. Worldwide some airliners remained in storage for up to 9 years post GFC before being reactivated. It’s complex enough now to plan a RIN, but for the next 3 years when no one knows what will happen? Management have indicated that stand downs will continue whilst the fleet is stood down. As long as they are not retiring aircraft, like what was announced with the 747, then nothing changes from the forecast that has provided 190 pilots in surplus (that is the forecast til mid 2022).

Something that will have to be considered is the fact whilst pilots on long term stand down will probably return to flying, after having spent several years off coming back to flying won’t just be a matter of a few sims and off they go. The retraining will be extensive, and not just for individuals, we’re talking about entire fleets of pilots including instructors who haven’t been operational for a considerable length of time.
dr dre is online now  
Old 13th Jul 2020, 22:46
  #758 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Weltschmerz-By-The-Sea, Queensland, Australia
Posts: 898
You would guess that a return to “normal” traffic would be slow and incremental though, so a fleet-wide recency problem should be manageable given enough forethought.

I am not reading anything currently that suggests a robust travel recovery absent a vaccine, even if immunisation is something that may have to be boosted periodically. I fear that we haven’t seen the entire SarsCoV-2 bag of tricks quite yet.
Australopithecus is offline  
Old 14th Jul 2020, 00:44
  #759 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 236
Any RIN is fairly irrelevant at this time, as it will only occur on paper.
goodonyamate is offline  
Old 14th Jul 2020, 01:23
  #760 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Wherever I can log on.
Posts: 1,742
Originally Posted by Wingspar View Post
A quote from AJ;
The A380 is a crucial part of our long-haul fleet and this upgrade program will see customers enjoy everything the aircraft has to offer for years to come.”
Admittedly before Covid but a big call to write off the fleet with six newly refurbished aircraft done. Effectively a new aircraft with the latest cabin, IFE etc.
The A380 is a unique asset. QF doesn’t have any replacement in terms of capacity or cabin i.e. First Class!
Everyone else is parking their old ones so QF would be wise to keep these spiffy newly refurbed ones available to monopolise routes i.e. USA.
Pity they are just about to send off most of the A380 crew away with a golden hand shake??
I suspect that QF will have to write the cost of the A380 upper deck upgrade as a badly timed investment. This virus has such a stranglehold throughout the world that it can’t be contained until a vaccine is released and thus, any international traffic for the next few years will be a fraction of the 2019 level and will be “point to point”. This means that aircraft such as the B787, A350, A330NEO & even the A321XLR will be the most suitable types. Working against the A380 coming back into service is the fact that it was designed as a “hub to hub” aircraft, it has a very high fuel consumption, extremely high maintenance costs and the loads/fares won’t be high enough to offset these issues.

There was an article recently detailing the amount of work that A380’s require whilst in storage (mainly focussed on the SQ A380’s in Alice Springs but detailed the manufacturer’s requirements) and it is very significant. If all 12 QF A380’s get parked in Victorville, then there would be sufficient full time work for at least two of the LAX based engineers (relocate or have a lengthy commute each day). It would be worth monitoring if this ongoing maintenance is being performed because, if it stops, it signals that management have made the decision not to bring them back into service. Another scenario is that they may only maintain the aircraft that have had the recent upgrade.

In Oz, aircraft are written off over 12 years so, the early delivered aircraft would now have no value on the company books and, as we’ve known for a long time, there is zero market for second hand A380’s. For the remaining aircraft in the fleet there would be some residual book value which could be used by Joyce to increase the company’s FY loss (may be delayed a year or two to get the best timing) and then orchestrate a second miraculous turnaround - imagine the bonus he could reward himself for doing that.

cynphil - I totally agree.

Bodie 1 - do you still want to make a bet?
Going Boeing is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.