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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

Old 5th Feb 2021, 08:14
  #2461 (permalink)  
Keg

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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
It might be a case of waiting until passenger numbers return to near pre pandemic levels before the justification for stand downs is no longer there. The union are free to challenge legally, but when it comes to court cases history has shown judges generally side with only one party in these disputes.
If international borders are open then the lack of demand (even though initially Covid induced) starts to look more like a commercial issue. Much harder to argue for stand downs under that situation- particularly when the LHEA has a mechanism to deal with surpluses on fleets.

Then again, if borders are open then my guess is demand will be returning and itíll be a moot point anyway.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 10:35
  #2462 (permalink)  
 
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They will keep stand downs ongoing until they feel like it, that’s the unfortunate truth. So if your on a Longhaul fleet 3 more years until constant Stand up. You might not agree to it but unless your union challenges it that’s what will happen! Meanwhile contract companies will employ to take Domestic Services 😂
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 13:02
  #2463 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Keg View Post
If international borders are open then the lack of demand (even though initially Covid induced) starts to look more like a commercial issue. Much harder to argue for stand downs under that situation- particularly when the LHEA has a mechanism to deal with surpluses on fleets.

Then again, if borders are open then my guess is demand will be returning and itíll be a moot point anyway.
You clearly havenít been paying attention to whatís happening in short haul.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 21:05
  #2464 (permalink)  
Keg

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We saw in November and December that demand returned very quickly. Of course the snap border closures just prior to Christmas have had an adverse impact on sentiment with people concerned they’ll be locked out of their state with only hours notice. Those sorts of things are still within what FWA have said are legit reasons for stand down.

Internationally a post vaccine world with open borders is a very different context to what is occurring domestically at the moment.

As an aside I think the forecast is for all 737 crew to be stood up by about April/ May? (Dependent on state borders remaining open of course). Not sure. Missed that webinar earlier in the week.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 21:25
  #2465 (permalink)  
 
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The real test will be school holidays March/April hopefully the vaccine roll out is in full swing. The issue at the moment is confidence, there is none. JQ seen demand sky rocket in Nov/Dec now everything is open again the traveling public are sitting on their hands and the schedule is the same with no increase in sight.

All the talk about stand up, being busy again is all a dream at the moment, vaccine needs to start happening but I fear it could be to late for some. CR is sure to happen at QF, JQ and soon wether from the top middle or bottom I don’t know but it’s going to happen.
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Old 6th Feb 2021, 04:38
  #2466 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Keg View Post
As an aside I think the forecast is for all 737 crew to be stood up by about April/ May? (Dependent on state borders remaining open of course). Not sure. Missed that webinar earlier in the week.
Initial forecast for all crew stood up was Sep 2020, then Dec 2020, then Feb 2021 now April/ May 2021. There's a pattern developing here and with ongoing quarantine failures, border closures and now the destruction of traveller confidence from repeated, no-notice border closures, I don't see it changing anytime soon.
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Old 6th Feb 2021, 05:05
  #2467 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OnceBitten View Post
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Please donít feed the troll.
Yeah , but show me where heís wrong .
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Old 6th Feb 2021, 07:48
  #2468 (permalink)  
 
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My money is on some limited international travel around July when most Aussies will have had the vaccine. Allowing vaccinated travellers with negative COVID test results in and out of Australia will probably be an acceptable risk if data gathered over the next few months provides good news. It won't be back to normal, a handful of detinations with smaller aircraft at best but hopefully there will be a start.

Australia can afford to wait and see as it is less dependant on international travellers than countries such as Thailand. It can sit in isolation at the end of the world as it has done for thousands of years and watch while other countries take the first steps.
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Old 6th Feb 2021, 10:58
  #2469 (permalink)  
 
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Australia can afford to wait and see as it is less dependant on international travellers than countries such as Thailand.
Tourism is (was) Australia's fourth largest export accounting for just over 8% of all export earnings before everything went south. It even overtook coal for a while there. This may become apparent at the end of March. The theory that we can 'afford to wait' is undone every time we shut down a whole state for a single case. People who haven't had their lives inconvenienced by more than a mask and working from home, which is most, would probably agree with you though. I guess that's the PR problem the rest of us have.
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Old 6th Feb 2021, 22:56
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Tourism in 2019 made up 3.1% of Australia’s GDP and there were 9.4 million international visitors, Bangkok had nearly 23 million. To some extent, international arrivals have been replaced by domestic tourists unable to travel overseas however they don’t spend as much money or stay as long. With Australia being a long way from anywhere and relatively expensive to get to, those who visit tend to be higher yielding tourists.

Undoubtedly, COVID is many times worse than the pilots strike of 1989, however Australia is a relatively wealthy country with a high degree of self sufficiency and is better placed to isolate itself. Places such as Phuket and Bali are totally dependent on international visitors and the effects have been devastating. Businesses and hotels have been closing down en mass and the streets are like a ghost town. There are few replacement jobs available for those affected, and they were living close to the breadline anyway. Thailand and Indonesia can’t afford a comprehensive welfare system and the situation is dire.

Australia will probably be one of the last places to open up.
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Old 7th Feb 2021, 03:22
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Krismiller,
Alice Springs, Cairns and the Gold Coast are almost completely dependant on tourism. When there is no tourism there is no economy. Wealthy country or not its not like Sydney where you can probably find alternative employment.

Getting unemployment may keep you from starving but it won't help a business stay afloat. There seems to be a belief that when the tourists return everything will go back to normal. Many hotels will not reopen and nor will many small businesses. At least 6 local businesses near me in suburban Melbourne remained closed after lockdown and we have never had to rely tourism at all. How will a tourist dependant business cope?

The USA and Europe will be fully vaccinated by mid year and International travel between them (and many popular tourist destination in Asia) should be near 50% of pre covid numbers.

Im not saying Australia should throw its doors open right now but you must start vaccinating soon to have any hope of being ready for the recovery. I fear the hide away mentality will cost Australia dearly in the long term when people decide to travel to other places instead.
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Old 7th Feb 2021, 03:48
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Climb150......I don’t know how you get the view that the USA and Europe will be fully vaccinated ​​​​​​ by mid year???
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Old 7th Feb 2021, 04:05
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Originally Posted by cynphil View Post
Climb150......I donít know how you get the view that the USA and Europe will be fully vaccinated ​​​​​​ by mid year???
When I say fully vaccinated I mean everyone who wants one gets one. The Australian govt thinks that vaccinating half the population is sufficient so maybe only half is full? When I said Europe I meant Western Europe. Usa vaccinated 23 million people in the last 4 weeks and the rate of vaccinations is increasing rapidly. The UK has vaccinated 10 million people in 8 weeks, France and Germany about 2 million a piece.


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Old 7th Feb 2021, 04:16
  #2474 (permalink)  
 
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Australian, with a population of 25 million has had 900 COVID deaths.
UK, with a population of 66 million has had 111 000.
USA, with a population of 328 million has had 462 000.

Australia locked down early and tightly, where as the USA/UK had partial lockdowns and some restrictions which were enforced to varying degrees. The results speak for themselves. The UK is back on lockdown for the third time and vaccination is a race against time to reduce the spiraling death toll. Australian has had hotspots and flare ups but life goes on.

One of the best examples of coping with a pandemic is Singapore which has a population of 6 million yet only suffered 29 deaths. The city state locked down hard and regulations were enforced with a draconian efficiency which would have put the Gestapo to shame. However this strategy worked, though it might not be acceptable in a liberal western democracy with a strong emphasis on individual rights.

Hopefully borders can start to open around mid year when sufficient numbers of people have been vaccinated and the pandemic downgrades to an epidemic.
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Old 7th Feb 2021, 04:29
  #2475 (permalink)  
 
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The Economist Intelligence Unit has made predictions regarding vaccination levels.

https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countr...irus-vaccines/

Having people in wealthy countries vaccinated is what will have most effect on the recovery. To put it bluntly, having Europeans, Japanese and Americans able to travel will speed up the opening of borders. Vaccinating people in developing countries who don’t travel anyway will have least effect.

Looking at the map in the link, important markets for Australia could be available towards the end of this year with an increasing number next year.
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Old 7th Feb 2021, 04:29
  #2476 (permalink)  
 
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I think this pandemic will be around for a few more years before it is downgraded to an epidemic......the whole world is involved and to think that this will happen by mid year....is a bit of wishful thinking!!
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Old 7th Feb 2021, 09:10
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According to Bloomberg, it will take a further 7 years for the world to return to the same freedoms we had pre-covid given the current expected rates of vaccination. Obviously elements of travel and tourism will return in the shorter term but being realistic it will be years for all past Qantas markets to be available. Greg Foran started yesterday it will take a MINIMUM of 10 years from now for Air NZ to reach its pre-covid size.
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Old 7th Feb 2021, 11:35
  #2478 (permalink)  
 
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Most of QF's international destinations are are in countries which are expected to have widespread vaccine coverage by mid next year and Australia will be seen as a safe destination. Having large parts of Africa, South America and Central Asia unvaccinated won't make much difference. Europe - USA travel could resume later this year with Australia added soon afterwards. Direct flights from the east coast to the US are possible and SIN/HKG will be safe stops en route to Europe.

Travel bubbles proved too fragile but vaccine bubbles might be possible.
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Old 7th Feb 2021, 11:55
  #2479 (permalink)  
 
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So exactly which unproven, untested, protocol minimised vaccine are we talking about that's going to sort out the virus in one mighty stroke?
From which previously and not so long ago pox riden countries, using the above various and different vaccines, will Australia accept travellers from?

What will be the requirements on arrival - a test/no test, quarantining short term or long term, you have a certificate (real or forged, can you tell the difference?) so just walk out of the terminal and be a tourist?

What happens when a new variant pops up that those already allowed into the country may have?
Sorry, questioned already answered - the magic, untested, infallible vaccines will take care of that....until they don't.
However you view it, whether luck or better judgement Oz overall has come through better than many other countries/continents and that's just going to be compromised and thrown away because of these "magical vaccines".

My bewilderment level at those who believe (wish?) for any significant International opening by the end of the year varies between wishful thinking to delusional.
F**k I hope I'm wrong!

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Old 7th Feb 2021, 11:57
  #2480 (permalink)  
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According to Bloomberg, it will take a further 7 years for the world to return to the same freedoms we had pre-covid given the current expected rates of vaccination
That article in particular I believe is talking about if current rates were to be maintained, not Expected rates. Current rates won't be maintained, as bureaucracy, manufacturing and distribution issues are sorted through the pace will no doubt pick up, most particularly in Western Countries.
From the article: "With vaccinations happening more rapidly in richer Western countries than the rest of the globe, it will take the world as a whole seven years at the current pace..."

It'll be a little while before we are back to normal but the catastrophism is unnecessary (though not unexpected from the press these days), and unhelpful to those who might be having a hard time of things. In a separate article Bloomberg is talking of a return to international travel in 2023, so really, they have no idea and are trying to sell newspapers.

Things won't be back to the pre-pandemic normal quickly, but provided the emerging evidence from the Israeli vaccine experience is replicated across the rest of the world, the probability should be they will start improving soon.
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