QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages
Nunc est bibendum
Certainly not the way I remember anything on the webinars that I’ve listened to.
The way I’ve heard it discussed is that VR is designed to deal with the longer term surplus (beyond about 2023) and the LWOP was designed to deal with the short term surplus.
Of course, in the short term we still have a surplus crew and likely will continue to do so until all current A330/787 crew are stood up and a decision has been made about the A380. That should start to decrease from early to mid next year as vaccines and travel bubbles start to come online.
The way I’ve heard it discussed is that VR is designed to deal with the longer term surplus (beyond about 2023) and the LWOP was designed to deal with the short term surplus.
Of course, in the short term we still have a surplus crew and likely will continue to do so until all current A330/787 crew are stood up and a decision has been made about the A380. That should start to decrease from early to mid next year as vaccines and travel bubbles start to come online.
I did hear this also. It was a webinar a while ago. Think it was Doug Alley saying the VR and ER would only address the surplus for the next financial year but there would be a surplus in the following years. But the numbers of VR and ER were the maximum Qantas could allocate but still didn’t address the surplus. The 250 of LWOP helps but he said still doesn’t address long term surplus.
Also heard it on an AIPA webinar from one of the executives that was a Captain. Can’t recall the name.
Also heard it on an AIPA webinar from one of the executives that was a Captain. Can’t recall the name.
They may be planning on different flying for the fleets, I wonder if they see the 380 being limited to shorter Asian routes of less than 10hours (Japan, China, Singapore) instead of London/LAX if it does comeback which would negate the need for a lot of the SOs on the 380?
A likelihood is that those who took LWOP would just extend it, as they would only be coming back to being stood down anyway.
QF postponed the A350 order indefinitely back in May.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhor...o-coronavirus/
Whilst the A350 may be the preferred type, B777s will be readily available for lease, or purchase secondhand at whatever age and mileage the company wants. The endorsement is similar to the B787 and the type is widely used with a proven history.
If finances are tight, the B777 could replace the A380 fairly easily, possibly on a temporary basis until conditions improve enough to make the A350 a solid business case.
Saving money and restructuring are the main concerns over the next few years. Grandiose prestige projects with expensive new aircraft take a back seat for a while.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhor...o-coronavirus/
Whilst the A350 may be the preferred type, B777s will be readily available for lease, or purchase secondhand at whatever age and mileage the company wants. The endorsement is similar to the B787 and the type is widely used with a proven history.
If finances are tight, the B777 could replace the A380 fairly easily, possibly on a temporary basis until conditions improve enough to make the A350 a solid business case.
Saving money and restructuring are the main concerns over the next few years. Grandiose prestige projects with expensive new aircraft take a back seat for a while.
QF postponed the A350 order indefinitely back in May.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhor...o-coronavirus/
Whilst the A350 may be the preferred type, B777s will be readily available for lease, or purchase secondhand at whatever age and mileage the company wants. The endorsement is similar to the B787 and the type is widely used with a proven history.
If finances are tight, the B777 could replace the A380 fairly easily, possibly on a temporary basis until conditions improve enough to make the A350 a solid business case.
Saving money and restructuring are the main concerns over the next few years. Grandiose prestige projects with expensive new aircraft take a back seat for a while.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhor...o-coronavirus/
Whilst the A350 may be the preferred type, B777s will be readily available for lease, or purchase secondhand at whatever age and mileage the company wants. The endorsement is similar to the B787 and the type is widely used with a proven history.
If finances are tight, the B777 could replace the A380 fairly easily, possibly on a temporary basis until conditions improve enough to make the A350 a solid business case.
Saving money and restructuring are the main concerns over the next few years. Grandiose prestige projects with expensive new aircraft take a back seat for a while.
The VR/ER covers the long term surplus with the retirement of the 747.
LWOP covers the short term surplus.
The only way there will be more redundancies is if there’s an announcement of a reduction in frames.
I fully believe there will be a post Covid economic/travel boom and there will be a scramble to get bums on seats.
Nunc est bibendum
Why would you lease a 777 to replace an A380 if there are A350-900s also available for lease and the A350-1000 features in your longer term plans? Similar crewing advantages to the 777/ 787 with both A330 and A380 crew able to do a conversion with a minimum of fuss.
The A350 business case was made at a time when it was flying and the 777X programme was stalled with engine problems and Boeing having to divert resources into getting the 737Max re certified.
The A350 was chosen at the time because there were airframes available within the chosen timeline and an aircraft already flying carries far less risk of delay than one still under development. The choice was made despite the 777X having superior performance and mission capability.
Fast forward a year from that decision, if QF execs still have an appetite for ultra long haul operations (which I believe will have a lot of demand in a post covid world) then the decision is very different. The 777X has flown, engine problems mostly sorted, delivery dates less likely to blow out and many customers looking to cancel orders hence early delivery slots may open up for QF.
The A350 was chosen at the time because there were airframes available within the chosen timeline and an aircraft already flying carries far less risk of delay than one still under development. The choice was made despite the 777X having superior performance and mission capability.
Fast forward a year from that decision, if QF execs still have an appetite for ultra long haul operations (which I believe will have a lot of demand in a post covid world) then the decision is very different. The 777X has flown, engine problems mostly sorted, delivery dates less likely to blow out and many customers looking to cancel orders hence early delivery slots may open up for QF.
There were two factors that helped swung the decision in favour of the A350.
1. There’s a greater distance between doors 1 & 2 on the A350-1000 which enables a better premium configuration for the ULR routes, &
2. The basic weight of the A350-1000 is 10 tonnes lighter thus saving fuel over the life of the aircraft. Being so much lighter, I don’t expect them to be strong enough to remain in service as long as the B777-8 would.
With the post COVID business being completely different, the business case for the aircraft would have to be rerun if they were looking for additional capacity.
The remaining B787 options are approximately half the cost of the A350 so they would have to be considered for non ULR routes.
1. There’s a greater distance between doors 1 & 2 on the A350-1000 which enables a better premium configuration for the ULR routes, &
2. The basic weight of the A350-1000 is 10 tonnes lighter thus saving fuel over the life of the aircraft. Being so much lighter, I don’t expect them to be strong enough to remain in service as long as the B777-8 would.
With the post COVID business being completely different, the business case for the aircraft would have to be rerun if they were looking for additional capacity.
The remaining B787 options are approximately half the cost of the A350 so they would have to be considered for non ULR routes.
All bets are off regarding the next few years, and any previous strategies need to be re-examined. On the vaccine front, the news is extremely encouraging and it’s not unrealistic to expect borders to start opening up in the next 3 - 6 months.
There will be an initial surge of bookings because of pent up demand, after that the entire network and timetable needs a clean sheet of paper. Some routes will be unprofitable and some new routes will be considered.
Frequencies, and type of aircraft will need adjusting, the ME3 have been savaged by the pandemic and may not be able to offer cheaper airfares. Australian travellers may prefer to fly on their own airline rather than a foreign one when going overseas
CX have deferred the B777-X until at least 2025 and are introducing the A321 - NEO with a scaled back business class.
For the next few years air travel is likely to be more point to point using smaller more efficient aircraft with reduced size premium cabins. Safe regional destinations will be more popular than adventurous long haul ones.
The kangaroo route bounces back as the UK has always been a popular destination, and QF could benefit if pax prefer a less exotic destination flying an airline they trust, particularly if the fare is competitive.
There will be an initial surge of bookings because of pent up demand, after that the entire network and timetable needs a clean sheet of paper. Some routes will be unprofitable and some new routes will be considered.
Frequencies, and type of aircraft will need adjusting, the ME3 have been savaged by the pandemic and may not be able to offer cheaper airfares. Australian travellers may prefer to fly on their own airline rather than a foreign one when going overseas
CX have deferred the B777-X until at least 2025 and are introducing the A321 - NEO with a scaled back business class.
For the next few years air travel is likely to be more point to point using smaller more efficient aircraft with reduced size premium cabins. Safe regional destinations will be more popular than adventurous long haul ones.
The kangaroo route bounces back as the UK has always been a popular destination, and QF could benefit if pax prefer a less exotic destination flying an airline they trust, particularly if the fare is competitive.
Australians have been forced to hide in our little corner of the world during COVID, due to some of the harshest border restrictions anywhere in the world. Suppression somehow became
elimination along the way, for better or worse.
I believe this will make us the most reluctant to travel until we can be absolutely certain about the effectiveness of a vaccine and given it time to prove itself on a world scale. We have become scared of the big bad world out there, and that will have a hangover effect even once the vaccine is available. We are probably more likely to get an increase in inbound pax before outbound, as vaccinated Poms and Yanks visit the safe haven of Australia.
I hope I’m wrong, but so many Aussies are petrified of this virus that almost exclusively kills elderly people and/or those with co-morbidities. I don’t see International travel rapidly bouncing back.
elimination along the way, for better or worse.
I believe this will make us the most reluctant to travel until we can be absolutely certain about the effectiveness of a vaccine and given it time to prove itself on a world scale. We have become scared of the big bad world out there, and that will have a hangover effect even once the vaccine is available. We are probably more likely to get an increase in inbound pax before outbound, as vaccinated Poms and Yanks visit the safe haven of Australia.
I hope I’m wrong, but so many Aussies are petrified of this virus that almost exclusively kills elderly people and/or those with co-morbidities. I don’t see International travel rapidly bouncing back.
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QLD perfect example of being petrified and falling for the Queen P propaganda machine. Even the busiest tourist spots in QLD voted for her. Either way QLD can look after QLD as said by Queen P regarding the hospitals, I hope Aussies avoid QLD and prop up TAS, SA, VIC watch all QLD squirm into bankruptcy screaming for any tourist dollar.
Australians have been forced to hide in our little corner of the world during COVID, due to some of the harshest border restrictions anywhere in the world. Suppression somehow became
elimination along the way, for better or worse.
I believe this will make us the most reluctant to travel until we can be absolutely certain about the effectiveness of a vaccine and given it time to prove itself on a world scale. We have become scared of the big bad world out there, and that will have a hangover effect even once the vaccine is available. We are probably more likely to get an increase in inbound pax before outbound, as vaccinated Poms and Yanks visit the safe haven of Australia.
I hope I’m wrong, but so many Aussies are petrified of this virus that almost exclusively kills elderly people and/or those with co-morbidities. I don’t see International travel rapidly bouncing back.
elimination along the way, for better or worse.
I believe this will make us the most reluctant to travel until we can be absolutely certain about the effectiveness of a vaccine and given it time to prove itself on a world scale. We have become scared of the big bad world out there, and that will have a hangover effect even once the vaccine is available. We are probably more likely to get an increase in inbound pax before outbound, as vaccinated Poms and Yanks visit the safe haven of Australia.
I hope I’m wrong, but so many Aussies are petrified of this virus that almost exclusively kills elderly people and/or those with co-morbidities. I don’t see International travel rapidly bouncing back.
I hope Aussies avoid QLD and prop up TAS, SA, VIC watch all QLD squirm into bankruptcy screaming for any tourist dollar.
Unfortunately (if you see it that way) it was the residents in those electorates, especially the older ones, who voted the government back in, in response to the policy of keeping the baddies out. Most of those electorates were the closest contests and it wasn't those reliant on the tourism industry that saw the Premier returned.
I don't know how many times this has to be repeated but this is a serious pandemic. Look at nations that haven't taken it seriously. A big portion of Australian international airline flying is to the USA, where their approach has lead to tens of thousands of airline employees being laid off and regional airlines going out of business. The situation is so dire Covid positive nurses are forced to work and refrigerated morgue trucks are being used to store bodies. Europe, which is taking the pandemic more seriously, is still seeing near capacity ICUs and record case numbers. And all of this before Northern Hemisphere winter. The upcoming season is being nicknamed "Dark Winter" for a reason.
Asian nations have done better. But I would say their populations are better behaved, and more compliant with health advice than westerners. It is probably for the best to keep large numbers of potential virus carriers out until successful vaccines are available and travelers widely vaccinated unless we want a repeat of what's happening in the Northern Hemisphere at the moment.
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I'm sure those in the tourism industry who've been shafted by the pre-election policies of Queen P will be delighted to hear of your subsequent support.
Unfortunately (if you see it that way) it was the residents in those electorates, especially the older ones, who voted the government back in, in response to the policy of keeping the baddies out. Most of those electorates were the closest contests and it wasn't those reliant on the tourism industry that saw the Premier returned.
Unfortunately (if you see it that way) it was the residents in those electorates, especially the older ones, who voted the government back in, in response to the policy of keeping the baddies out. Most of those electorates were the closest contests and it wasn't those reliant on the tourism industry that saw the Premier returned.
QLD gave Queen P their blessing they can deal with that aftermath.
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Exactly Ragnor, and I’ve been hearing VIC and WA residents are planning big catch ups in ADL to circumvent the ridiculous border issues.