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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

Old 27th Oct 2020, 22:49
  #2001 (permalink)  
 
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Gday Keg.
Notwithstanding what you said, and quite understandable the plan as well, but if I may play the devils advocate. What would CASA say in three years time when QF wants to re activate the A380’s?
AJ would no doubt approve some sort of currency training for the long term but would CASA be happy with that in three years time?
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Old 27th Oct 2020, 22:59
  #2002 (permalink)  
 
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Agree totally wingspar.
Hard to peddle influence when you’ve closed shop and have nothing of worth left to sell !
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Old 28th Oct 2020, 00:07
  #2003 (permalink)  
Keg

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No doubt CASA will be consulted along the journey. They have up until this point, I don’t see why that would change.
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Old 28th Oct 2020, 00:37
  #2004 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wingspar View Post
Gday Keg.
Notwithstanding what you said, and quite understandable the plan as well, but if I may play the devils advocate. What would CASA say in three years time when QF wants to re activate the A380’s?
AJ would no doubt approve some sort of currency training for the long term but would CASA be happy with that in three years time?

Wouldn't it be approached in the same way as a new fleet introduction like we have done in the past? The fact that there is crew that are endorsed and under a five year period is just a bonus from totally starting from scratch.
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Old 28th Oct 2020, 01:39
  #2005 (permalink)  
 
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I agree.
When we introduced the A330 many trainers did sectors with other carriers. They came back, flew the initial sectors then slowly introduced line crew.
This time how will they do it? I doubt CASA will be happy if QF want to run some sims and then throw the crew on revenue line sectors? Perhaps getting trainers on the 330 for a while? I don’t know just a question on what issues may arise.
Nonetheless just one of many issues from re activating aircraft from long term storage. If they want to that is? What if they eventually order standard A350-1000’s as part of ‘Sunrise’. Probably Airbus will throw in training and CASA will be happy with initial line sectors on the A330?
Cheaper than bringing back the A380’s?
Who knows?
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Old 28th Oct 2020, 02:33
  #2006 (permalink)  
Keg

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This isn’t a new aircraft type. It’s an aircraft that Qantas has a decade of experience operating and that all the trainers have a fair bit of experience on. A proper sim currency program (both ongoing as well as slightly more ramped up/ directed as return to service approaches) should get the trainers up to speed again.

Then, when (if?) it comes time to re-activate the A380s they will likely I fly them across the hill from MHV to LAX first- not sure if they can do gear swings in MHV or whether the jet will need some hangar time to do that. That gives you anywhere between 6 or 9 sectors (depending on how many aircraft you’re getting out of storage at any one time) to get some trainers current in the jet. Then you have a similar number of sectors getting the jet(s) back to SYD (with or without pax) which takes care of more trainers. Perhaps some SYD-MEL-SYD stuff to get some more sectors into line crew and then we’ve got enough critical mass to get up and going.

Yes, an order for A350s in the interim certainly muddies the waters regarding the A380 return. I guess we’ll wait and see on that one.

The more critical of the issue is going to be more about what does the sim recurrent training program (both the interim and the return to service) look like more than the actual sectors in the jet. No doubt the line trainers will be bloody busy in those first couple of months.
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Old 28th Oct 2020, 05:49
  #2007 (permalink)  
 
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Realistically, I can't see the A380 ever returning except for a small number in one or two airlines on a handful of routes. It's the modern equivalent of the Concorde. Airlines are pruning their fleets of older, inefficient and 4 engined types, even early A320s are being scrapped. Once air travel starts to return, B787s and A350s will be first out of the gate, CX have pushed the B777 - 9 back to beyond 2025 and even their current B777 fleet isn't looking good.

It would be very hard to make a case for bringing the aircraft back into service and operating it in comparison to newer twins, QF might not have the critical mass required to make it worthwhile if it could only be justified on a couple of runs. Even the few airlines which continue to operate it may have to look at reducing the size of the premium cabins.
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Old 28th Oct 2020, 06:11
  #2008 (permalink)  
 
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The thing is QF own their 380s, and now they have been able to fully depreciate them. I find it hard NOT to see them, well at least the 6 refurbed ones coming back.
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Old 28th Oct 2020, 12:33
  #2009 (permalink)  
 
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Agree OnceBitten , only if demand returns !
Unfortunately a postCovid induced bounce back is looking more and more problematic.
My crystal ball is starting to coalesce showing a greatly reduced world wide demand for air travel which puts the 787 in the box seat and question marks on affordability of 350’s if the Western Worlds economy goes into a secular bear market business cycle .
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Old 28th Oct 2020, 23:35
  #2010 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OnceBitten View Post
The thing is QF own their 380s, and now they have been able to fully depreciate them. I find it hard NOT to see them, well at least the 6 refurbed ones coming back.
The post COVID international flying will probably be almost all point-to-point flying as this would present the least risk of infection compared to travelling via hub ports.

The A380 is an aircraft designed to operate between hubs and is too large to be used cost effectively on P2P routes. As it is an aircraft with a huge fuel burn (per seat km) and higher maintenance costs than other types that are available, it would be difficult to bring it back into service - despite the fact that six of them have had an expensive upgrade of the upper deck.

If it is decided to not bring the A380's back into service, some of the upgrade costs could be salvaged by removing all of the new Business & Premium Economy seats from them and fitting them to new B787's or A350's that would be ordered in the future for the P2P routes.

Last edited by Going Boeing; 29th Oct 2020 at 00:11.
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Old 29th Oct 2020, 00:01
  #2011 (permalink)  
 
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Before COVID, the B777 was a better proposition for most airlines then the A380, now major operators of the B777 have largely grounded them in favour of smaller types. SQ and CX are becoming narrow body operators through merging Silk Air and Cathay Dragon into mainline.

With the likely availability of large numbers of relatively new B777s at depressed prices on the second hand market over the next few years, the option of acquiring a newer more efficient aircraft type with a much longer projected time in service could prove attractive when compared to spending less money to bring back an already deprecated aircraft which is more expensive to operate and will likely only remain with the company for a few years. The requirement for large premium cabins is well down the list of what’s needed.

In the short to medium term, I can see narrow bodies flying to the limit of their range, B787s and A330s for longer distances with B777 and A350 on routes which can support them.

With the number of grounded aircraft, the newer more efficient ones will be most of the work.
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Old 29th Oct 2020, 00:08
  #2012 (permalink)  
 
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All good points above, but the question that crew want an answer to is:

”When do we start getting paid again?”
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Old 29th Oct 2020, 00:15
  #2013 (permalink)  
 
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Not anytime soon sadly. Qantas have been ruthless in their ability to have one group of pilots on full pay whilst another group is on ‘no’ pay, where is the incentive for them to change that? They are talking about being cashflow positive now, share price being good and recovery on track, all points to big executive pay and bonuses, they won’t risk that by paying people who aren’t needed for flying. Sadly that means if you are a long haul pilot for either Jetstar or Qantas you may be in for a long wait.
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Old 29th Oct 2020, 00:58
  #2014 (permalink)  
 
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Post

Originally Posted by Ollie Onion View Post
Not anytime soon sadly. Qantas have been ruthless in their ability to have one group of pilots on full pay whilst another group is on ‘no’ pay, where is the incentive for them to change that? They are talking about being cashflow positive now, share price being good and recovery on track, all points to big executive pay and bonuses, they won’t risk that by paying people who aren’t needed for flying. Sadly that means if you are a long haul pilot for either Jetstar or Qantas you may be in for a long wait.
Or QF SH Mainline on rotating stand down whilst Network A320 Pilots remain stood up with advertising for direct entry Pilots as recently as July 2020.
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Old 29th Oct 2020, 01:08
  #2015 (permalink)  
 
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OK, and how does that help any of the long haul pilots.
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Old 29th Oct 2020, 01:26
  #2016 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ruprecht View Post
All good points above, but the question that crew want an answer to is:

”When do we start getting paid again?”
When the aircraft they fly is back performing RPT flights.

Europe/USA look to be out of action for a while, maybe until a vaccine or at the bare minimum next Northern Summer but that would be optimistic. At the moment no flying there planned until end 2021. Undoubtedly would restart on the 787 as the passenger numbers wouldn’t justify a 380.

Asia looks better, there is a possibility of bubbles being opened up but again the route would have to be profitable before flying starts. So definitely no need for 380 in the short/medium term. The 330 should get a fair amount of it’s Asian network back but may lose some domestically. The 787 may get some additional flying to previously unserviced Asian ports, and this will help the 330 too. The Chairman basically indicated the same in the following article:

Qantas to chase new Asian routes, with flights to UK and United States unlikely for another year - ABC News

I could foresee the possibility of 330 crews being stood up on a reduced divisor by end 2021. Maybe a proportion of 787 crews too, although they would be more dependent on things like vaccines or the situation in Europe/North America improving to get back to a regular schedule.
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Old 29th Oct 2020, 01:40
  #2017 (permalink)  
 
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So, indefinite stand down is redundancy without a payout.
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Old 29th Oct 2020, 01:46
  #2018 (permalink)  
 
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So if your stood down for 2 years when get the axe you get nothing? Would there not be some PR consequences as a result of such behaviour?
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Old 29th Oct 2020, 03:01
  #2019 (permalink)  
 
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You will see the last three 787’s brought into service before you see a QF A380 in the skies again. Vaccines are not going to fix this. Short time Testing, quick and accurate tracing and preventative medication will gradually see borders (via Bubbles) Open quicker than any Vaccine. Demand will be crazy once the green light is given by the totalitarian regime in Canberra. Even some quarantine (less than 2days) will still see a fast recovery. Take out the Aviation industry and this is a recession for low income earners. It will interesting if any Covid cases appear in Howard springs with pre departure testing a requirement of the repatriation trickle offered by the Government.
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Old 29th Oct 2020, 03:15
  #2020 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ollie Onion View Post
OK, and how does that help any of the long haul pilots.
Even with your backs up against the wall the stereotypical LH archetype persists

Last edited by CaptCloudbuster; 29th Oct 2020 at 03:26.
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