All borders to reopen.
So, elephant stamp? early mark this afternoon?
That sounds (typically) overly conservative. There's not a bad analogue for letting it rip at or below 50 percent vaccination rates - the Netherlands. They were at about 45 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated when they lifted essentially all restrictions back in mid-June. Unsurprisingly, cases spiked rapidly such that after a month they started reimposing restrictions. Nearly 90 percent of their cases are delta-variant. Of note though is that hospitalisations and ICU admissions did not blow out on them. Their case prevalence rate is sitting just below 1 percent (about 171,000 active cases) and they are seeing hospitalisation and ICU admission rates of 0.28 percent and 0.1 respectively.
Applying that ICU admission rate here, we'd need 2.4 million active cases (nearly 10 percent case prevalence) just to fill our baseline 2,400 ICU beds. Even if you were to be super conservative and double the Netherlands ICU admission rate that means you would have to see a case prevalence rate of 4.7 percent; even entirely unvaccinated countries on their worst days weren't seeing that sort of number but they weren't dealing with the delta-variant back then either.
You get a sense that your vaccination target for going, and planning on staying, lockdown-free is between 50 - 70 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated. You'd probably want to err towards the high side of that range.
It was a chap from the Doherty Institute. He did in fact say "7,000" ICU beds rather than 7,500 and his comments about them still being overwhelmed were in relation to 50% of the population being vaccinated rather than 80%. The Institute's modelling supports a relaxation of restrictions at 80% (but 90% for some demographics).
Applying that ICU admission rate here, we'd need 2.4 million active cases (nearly 10 percent case prevalence) just to fill our baseline 2,400 ICU beds. Even if you were to be super conservative and double the Netherlands ICU admission rate that means you would have to see a case prevalence rate of 4.7 percent; even entirely unvaccinated countries on their worst days weren't seeing that sort of number but they weren't dealing with the delta-variant back then either.
You get a sense that your vaccination target for going, and planning on staying, lockdown-free is between 50 - 70 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated. You'd probably want to err towards the high side of that range.
Last edited by MickG0105; 29th Jul 2021 at 23:29. Reason: Clarification re pre-vaccine prevalence rates
At some stage, this debate will be about our economy and the unsustainablity of current fiscal practices and the vulnerability of our exports to China.
I cannot believe Australians would wish this national debt on their children or grand-children. Is there a belief we won't face more challenges as a nation soon, requiring crippling further debt? Discounting Black Swan events, likely scenarios include serious rearming and the cost and politics of Global Warming.
Yet many Aussies I talk to happy to have their hand out for government cash.
I cannot believe Australians would wish this national debt on their children or grand-children. Is there a belief we won't face more challenges as a nation soon, requiring crippling further debt? Discounting Black Swan events, likely scenarios include serious rearming and the cost and politics of Global Warming.
Yet many Aussies I talk to happy to have their hand out for government cash.
You get a sense that your vaccination target for going, and planning on staying, lockdown-free is between 50 - 70 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated. You'd probably want to err towards the high side of that range.
yep. So around about December . Hopefully summer holidays and Xmas won’t be ruined then. We need to hope there are no supply issues with Pfizer.
We are also due to get Moderna late in the year but they appear to be having supply issues now.
Moderna has pushed back its late-July vaccine shipment schedule for South Korea to August due to supply problems that will affect other countries waiting on Moderna shots, a South Korean health official says.
The issue is due to the vaccine manufacturing process involving Swiss contract drugmaker Lonza and a Spain-based company which does bottling work for the Moderna vaccine, the official, Lee Sang-won, told a briefing on Tuesday.
Moderna is also set to supply Australia with 25 million doses from late 2021. The agreement is for 10 million doses of their current vaccine, and 15 million doses of booster or variant-specific versions of the vaccine.
yep. So around about December . Hopefully summer holidays and Xmas won’t be ruined then. We need to hope there are no supply issues with Pfizer.
We are also due to get Moderna late in the year but they appear to be having supply issues now.
Moderna has pushed back its late-July vaccine shipment schedule for South Korea to August due to supply problems that will affect other countries waiting on Moderna shots, a South Korean health official says.
The issue is due to the vaccine manufacturing process involving Swiss contract drugmaker Lonza and a Spain-based company which does bottling work for the Moderna vaccine, the official, Lee Sang-won, told a briefing on Tuesday.
Moderna is also set to supply Australia with 25 million doses from late 2021. The agreement is for 10 million doses of their current vaccine, and 15 million doses of booster or variant-specific versions of the vaccine.
You get a sense that your vaccination target for going, and planning on staying, lockdown-free is between 50 - 70 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated. You'd probably want to err towards the high side of that range.
Better to aim for 80% and open up at e.g. 75% in the light of the then-prevailing circumstances, than aim for 70% and realise that in the light of the then-prevailing circumstances it would not be prudent to open up at that number.
And along the way the ongoing consideration of and disquiet over the ever-increasing real costs paid versus the value of the projected lives saved may result in the target - whatever it is - being mugged by reality.
Late last year the numbers banded around were 80% vaccination coverage to be effective. This being due to 60%-70% vaccine efficacy, ie 80% vaccine with 70% efficacy results in about 55-60% effective coverage. The 80% being regarded as the highest possible figure due to anti vaxxers and those not able to vax.
From today's ABC COVID blog.
Analysis from Melbourne's Burnet Institute has found 95 per cent of people aged over 60 would need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 in order for Australia to open its borders safely.
The researchers found a 70 per cent vaccination rate for those under 60 would also be required to prevent severe outbreaks of the Delta variant.
The modelling has been provided to the Victorian government ahead of Premier Daniel Andrews’ attendance at National Cabinet later today.
Burnet Institute deputy director Margaret Hellard said even with the high vaccination rates, mask regulations and occasional lockdowns would still occur if the borders were opened.
"Restrictions will be required, even with high levels of vaccination," Professor Hellard said.
"We will occasionally need to bring in restrictions to control an outbreak, to stop people getting sick and dying from COVID."
National Cabinet is meeting today to discuss the vaccination levels required to do away with lockdowns.
The Doherty Institute has provided modelling on the percentage of the population that needs to be vaccinated before lockdowns are no longer needed.
The researchers found a 70 per cent vaccination rate for those under 60 would also be required to prevent severe outbreaks of the Delta variant.
The modelling has been provided to the Victorian government ahead of Premier Daniel Andrews’ attendance at National Cabinet later today.
Burnet Institute deputy director Margaret Hellard said even with the high vaccination rates, mask regulations and occasional lockdowns would still occur if the borders were opened.
"Restrictions will be required, even with high levels of vaccination," Professor Hellard said.
"We will occasionally need to bring in restrictions to control an outbreak, to stop people getting sick and dying from COVID."
National Cabinet is meeting today to discuss the vaccination levels required to do away with lockdowns.
The Doherty Institute has provided modelling on the percentage of the population that needs to be vaccinated before lockdowns are no longer needed.
As far as Australias economy. GDP is now higher than pre Covid, which is why the federal gov is not handing out cash, otherwise we risk inflation kicking in, that is despite covid and the Federals ruining our china relationship. Scomo could just patch up relations with China and boost the economy another several percentage points. Jobless rate is tipped to lower to around 4.5% by December as major hirers are already hording casuals because of our restrained labor market. So the actual numbers are nothing near dire, in fact, the opposite, it might be too good and we could overheat. Again don't believe the single headline chasers on the news and media about some poor casual in Sydney Western suburbs doing it tough as being the general nature of what is happening. Melbourne did the same thing last year for longer. As far as the kids of the future, it will be the same, have family money, have house, don't have family money, rent.
From today's ABC COVID blog.
Analysis from Melbourne's Burnet Institute has found 95 per cent of people aged over 60 would need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 in order for Australia to open its borders safely.
The researchers found a 70 per cent vaccination rate for those under 60 would also be required to prevent severe outbreaks of the Delta variant.
The modelling has been provided to the Victorian government ahead of Premier Daniel Andrews’ attendance at National Cabinet later today.
The researchers found a 70 per cent vaccination rate for those under 60 would also be required to prevent severe outbreaks of the Delta variant.
The modelling has been provided to the Victorian government ahead of Premier Daniel Andrews’ attendance at National Cabinet later today.
The Burnett Institute numbers - 95 per cent of people aged over 60 plus 70 per cent for those under 60 (presumably down to 18 year olds) - equate to just shy of 60 percent of the total population or 75 percent of the adult population.
Thanks to the moronic clowns who protested last weekend this has now happened:
short flights long nights
Thanks to the moronic clowns who protested last weekend this has now happened:
Dr Kerry Chant has said someone who attempted to attend the protest last week in the CBD, tested positive for covid the next day. Police turned the individual away and fined them- but they don’t know if the continued onto the protest. @9NewsAUS
Dr Kerry Chant has said someone who attempted to attend the protest last week in the CBD, tested positive for covid the next day. Police turned the individual away and fined them- but they don’t know if the continued onto the protest. @9NewsAUS
As far as Australias economy. GDP is now higher than pre Covid, which is why the federal gov is not handing out cash, otherwise we risk inflation kicking in, that is despite covid and the Federals ruining our china relationship. Scomo could just patch up relations with China and boost the economy another several percentage points. Jobless rate is tipped to lower to around 4.5% by December as major hirers are already hording casuals because of our restrained labor market. So the actual numbers are nothing near dire, in fact, the opposite, it might be too good and we could overheat. Again don't believe the single headline chasers on the news and media about some poor casual in Sydney Western suburbs doing it tough as being the general nature of what is happening. Melbourne did the same thing last year for longer. As far as the kids of the future, it will be the same, have family money, have house, don't have family money, rent.
short flights long nights
And we now have a tradie who knew he was positive, that has been working on a construction site for at least a week!!!
There is no hope!!!’n
There is no hope!!!’n
Last edited by SOPS; 30th Jul 2021 at 04:38.
As far as Australias economy. GDP is now higher than pre Covid, which is why the federal gov is not handing out cash, otherwise we risk inflation kicking in, that is despite covid and the Federals ruining our china relationship. Scomo could just patch up relations with China and boost the economy another several percentage points. Jobless rate is tipped to lower to around 4.5% by December as major hirers are already hording casuals because of our restrained labor market. So the actual numbers are nothing near dire, in fact, the opposite, it might be too good and we could overheat. Again don't believe the single headline chasers on the news and media about some poor casual in Sydney Western suburbs doing it tough as being the general nature of what is happening. Melbourne did the same thing last year for longer. As far as the kids of the future, it will be the same, have family money, have house, don't have family money, rent.
Then, as I’ve said before, Australia should continue with random capital city lockdowns and interstate and international border closures, indefinitely. Great for the economic numbers!
30th Jul 2021 12:47
30th Jul 2021 12:47
As far as jobs go, there are heaps of adds for low paid work at the moment, any casual out of work should walk into another job almost instantly, if you are genuine about it. I'm associated with supermarkets right now and its a constant stream of new employees.
Now local retail, that has been a sad story for some time due to internet sales, if you havn't pivoted to online sales yet you were in a terminal decline anyway.
If you work in Aviation and inbound tourism, toughen up, its going to be a long road out, nothing is going to change that. But the majority of the economy has adapted to the situation.
Don’t eat all those crayons, Champ.
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Dunda
Posts: 159
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Yep. When the ambulance screeches to a halt at the door of the emergency department of the hospital, they'll add "have you chosen not to be vaccinated for Covid 19" to the existing list of questions asked in deciding whether to provide or refuse treatment to someone in a medical crisis.
Remind me of the existing list of questions asked by a hospital in deciding whether to admit or refuse someone who can't breathe to the emergency department.
Remind me of the existing list of questions asked by a hospital in deciding whether to admit or refuse someone who can't breathe to the emergency department.
Fortunately the Health Minister and Chief Health Officer aren’t as sadistic as some of the posters here and are welcoming people to hospitals if they need healthcare irrespective of how they caught the virus or their vaccination status.
Would be interesting to see the empty hospitals if we rationed healthcare based on “he should’ve known this might happen”. No more alcoholics, smokers, obese people, motorbike riders, DIY-ladder-climbers.
National Cabinet might as well just be abandoned as old mate out west has other ideas vs what the PM outlined this evening. WA could be locking down for years and years to come. This industry will basically fall over if that’s the case.
Lockdowns are, really, until we're all vaccinated, the only thing that works.
"When we hit the 80 per cent mark, lockdowns would only be for unusual circumstances in specific locations, but 80 per cent vaccination is very high."
Mr McGowan also announced ships from "high risk" countries will now be blocked from entering his state's ports.
While the measures were "robust and draconian", he said, they're necessary to protect West Australians.
"When we hit the 80 per cent mark, lockdowns would only be for unusual circumstances in specific locations, but 80 per cent vaccination is very high."
Mr McGowan also announced ships from "high risk" countries will now be blocked from entering his state's ports.
While the measures were "robust and draconian", he said, they're necessary to protect West Australians.
Australians will move to the next phase of dealing with the pandemic - potentially out of lockdowns and internal border restrictions - when 70 per cent of the eligible national population as well as each state and territory is fully vaccinated.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirmed the 70 per cent target after a marathon national cabinet meeting on Friday.
Australia is currently in Phase A, where lockdowns and quarantine are still required to deal with outbreaks
“We will get to the next phase when Australia reaches 70 per cent of the eligible population who are double dose vaccinated,” Mr Morrison said on Friday.
“We will get to Phase C when we hit 80 per cent.”
“Australia will get this done by working together. The targets are there for us all to achieve and for us all to work towards.”
Mr Morrison said lockdowns in Phase B would be less likely but still possible, and international border caps would remain, but inbound passenger caps, which were recently halved, would be restored back to around 6000 a week.
There would be a larger cap for vaccinated returning travellers coming to Australia in Phase B.
The prime minister said there would be “special rules” for those who got vaccinated, where restrictions would be eased. The details of that are still to be worked through, he said.
“Because if you're vaccinated, you present less of a public health risk. You are less likely to get the virus. You are less likely to transmit it,” Mr Morrison added.
Targeted lockdowns in Phase C
In Phase C, Mr Morrison said lockdowns would only be “highly-targeted” and would not be imposed metropolitan-wide.
“Where there are vulnerable communities - they may be in remote communities, they may be in particular communities within a city, where there may be cultural elements that may be involved in this,” he said.
“It may be a particularly vulnerable population, then you need to leave yourself and the states and territories for public health reasons, they will need to leave themselves that option.”
In Phase C, there will be no cap on the number of fully vaccinated Australians returning to the country.
Caps will also be raised for students, economic and refugee visa holders.
Australians who’ve been fully vaccinated will be able to travel overseas in this phase, and there could be unrestricted travel to new countries that Australia launches a “travel bubble” with.
The final phase involves opening up international borders, and only high-risk inbound travellers will be required to quarantine.
“Once we get above the 80 per cent, the scientific evidence shows that we're largely then in a place where COVID can be managed consistent with other infectious diseases and of course, we don't apply those types of restrictions to the flu or many other things like that,” Mr Morrison said.
In a reference to the UK, Mr Morrison Australia’s plan was not about “freedom days”.
“We've always been in Australia taking our own path to this.”
Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirmed the 70 per cent target after a marathon national cabinet meeting on Friday.
Australia is currently in Phase A, where lockdowns and quarantine are still required to deal with outbreaks
“We will get to the next phase when Australia reaches 70 per cent of the eligible population who are double dose vaccinated,” Mr Morrison said on Friday.
“We will get to Phase C when we hit 80 per cent.”
“Australia will get this done by working together. The targets are there for us all to achieve and for us all to work towards.”
Mr Morrison said lockdowns in Phase B would be less likely but still possible, and international border caps would remain, but inbound passenger caps, which were recently halved, would be restored back to around 6000 a week.
There would be a larger cap for vaccinated returning travellers coming to Australia in Phase B.
The prime minister said there would be “special rules” for those who got vaccinated, where restrictions would be eased. The details of that are still to be worked through, he said.
“Because if you're vaccinated, you present less of a public health risk. You are less likely to get the virus. You are less likely to transmit it,” Mr Morrison added.
Targeted lockdowns in Phase C
In Phase C, Mr Morrison said lockdowns would only be “highly-targeted” and would not be imposed metropolitan-wide.
“Where there are vulnerable communities - they may be in remote communities, they may be in particular communities within a city, where there may be cultural elements that may be involved in this,” he said.
“It may be a particularly vulnerable population, then you need to leave yourself and the states and territories for public health reasons, they will need to leave themselves that option.”
In Phase C, there will be no cap on the number of fully vaccinated Australians returning to the country.
Caps will also be raised for students, economic and refugee visa holders.
Australians who’ve been fully vaccinated will be able to travel overseas in this phase, and there could be unrestricted travel to new countries that Australia launches a “travel bubble” with.
The final phase involves opening up international borders, and only high-risk inbound travellers will be required to quarantine.
“Once we get above the 80 per cent, the scientific evidence shows that we're largely then in a place where COVID can be managed consistent with other infectious diseases and of course, we don't apply those types of restrictions to the flu or many other things like that,” Mr Morrison said.
In a reference to the UK, Mr Morrison Australia’s plan was not about “freedom days”.
“We've always been in Australia taking our own path to this.”
