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Old 16th Sep 2020, 13:22
  #1701 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
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Originally Posted by Turnleft080 View Post

Viruses are dead cells out in the open until they infiltrate you, agreed. When you sneeze they only live for about 30sec in the open.
That's why infection is low in the open and contagious indoors.
As I said before lockdowns prolong the virus thanks for the discussion.

Sort of need some even shytty backyard fools, half arsed 3 year olds paper to back your comment.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 13:33
  #1702 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sydney
Age: 57
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Sure. But play the ball - not the man

Have a look at this

WHO SITREP giving official Chinese timeline. China fessed up that it was a coronavirus on 7 January.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=20a99c10_4

Except this
https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0...251-8/fulltext

Look at table of results
So China obtained CV from a patient at least as early as 26 December. Now even if the PCR was negative as new virus (plausible), I’ll bet both nuts they would have looked at those samples under an electron microscope. They would have seen CV (which were named for their distinct appearance under EM). So they knew they had a CV problem around December 26.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 14:30
  #1703 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
A debunking (at Least from the WHO perspective):

World Health Organization: Bad guy or fall guy?
Ever the apologist it seems dr dre.

Iím not going to quibble over whether it was the 31st Dec or a day or so later but just as with SARS, we in HK began to see a few column centimetres appearing beyond page 3 of the local press saying there were unusual respiratory cases appearing on the Mainland.

Again as with SARS, the news slowly gained more coverage and got closer to the front page of the papers. It was early January and locals started to don masks more frequently.
Mid January approached and concerns were so high that I also decided it might be the right thing to wear a mask at work to respect my local colleagues.

Being a frequent flyer, I was somewhat surprised to see that QANTAS cabin crews seemed oblivious to the number of pax getting on their flights wearing masks. The CX girls all knew something was up and they were already wearing masks very early on. Meanwhile, despite the Oz govt saying they were onto it early, I probably did 4 or 5 weekly trips into Australia , along with hundreds of Mainlanders who transited thru HK before there was even a hint of concern shown. I recall even having to ask somebody on arrival where they wanted me to put my health declaration and they basically pointed to a table where I should toss it.

By the 3rd week of January it was all but confirmed that something seriously wrong was occurring in Wuhan and locals were calling on the HK Govt to close the border with the Mainland.
With Lunar New Year approaching on the 25th and Mainlanders beginning their ritual mass exodus, the Central Govt did NOTHING to prevent at least 5 million travellers from leaving the region to other parts of the world.

I donít give a $hit what your vlogger says in his typical supercilious manner (heard many of his before on other topics) , the fact is the Central Govt knew damn well that there was something happening but they were too afraid to tell 1.3 billion people they couldnít celebrate Lunar New Year as normal.

Iím not saying it definitely originated there but the rest of the World is now paying for their inaction.
The resemblance between the handling of this and Chernobyl is striking for exactly the same reasons.

Last edited by Cafe City; 16th Sep 2020 at 14:50.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 15:50
  #1704 (permalink)  
 
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Yes you responded to me dr dre then quickly withdrew it.
I reiterate, I said I did not assert that Wuhan was ground zero.
The question is not whether there were some cases elsewhere in December.

I have given you an unembellished account of what the general public were aware of in HK in very early January, with the timing based on messages I sent back to my family at the time.
It is a normal phenomena that over 100 million Chinese will travel (both internally and internationally) in the days leading up to and during the Lunar New Year holiday period to reduce peak loading on transportation.
The outbreak had been confirmed on State media yet still nothing was done to contain at least 5 million travelers from the mid-western region until after the LNY was over. Then suddenly the crackdown began.

Anything earlier would have been severe loss of face.... (yes, that''s an embellishment)
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 22:59
  #1705 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: melbourne
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
The numbers are trending well in VIC.

Regardless of what is said here, the rest of the nation IS wishing you all well and that the trend can be maintained.

Western Europe looks to be in for another hammering.

With luck and hard work, that can continue to be avoided here.

All the best, wherever you are.
Thanks for your wishes.
Few interesting points this morning.
28 new cases & 8 deaths
CHO Brett Sutton says he knew nothing of security guards being used in hotels!
Saw queen P on tv in qld yesterday bleating on about some new fire fighting aircraft,WOW ,what a difference 1 will make!
Re the deaths,also heard year to date compared to last year,there were more deaths in aged care last year compared to 2020.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 23:07
  #1706 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Australia
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Originally Posted by blubak View Post
Re the deaths,also heard year to date compared to last year,there were more deaths in aged care last year compared to 2020.
I have no doubt you are right, the only thing this thread proves is everyone has their own mind made up. Experts, statistics, common sense, all have no impact on anyoneís point of view.

Just did some traveling through Europe. Loads were good. Some of the airports reasonnably busy. Life goes on in some parts of the globe.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 23:15
  #1707 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Sydney
Posts: 237
Its hard to make up your mind when the only thing the media is interested in is convincing everyone that the world is about to end and unless we all lock ourselves away for the next 2 years everyone will die of CoVID 19.

I have seen so many "experts" on the media spreading fear with their huge death predictions that didn't come true that you can forgive me for being sceptical when they open their mouths again.


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Old 16th Sep 2020, 23:21
  #1708 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Timbuktoo
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Australia being described as the nanny state has never been truer than now. Governments should be focusing on risk management rather than risk elimination.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 23:35
  #1709 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: melbourne
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Originally Posted by Climb150 View Post
Its hard to make up your mind when the only thing the media is interested in is convincing everyone that the world is about to end and unless we all lock ourselves away for the next 2 years everyone will die of CoVID 19.

I have seen so many "experts" on the media spreading fear with their huge death predictions that didn't come true that you can forgive me for being sceptical when they open their mouths again.
Some of these experts are the public who have suddenly decided they should call up radio stations & talk about crap.
Heard 1 woman yesterday whinging how there were too many kids playing at the local park,people like her need to go home & lock themselves away & leave the rest of us to get on with our lives,do gooders everywhere.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 23:45
  #1710 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Oz
Posts: 267
Everyone is frustrated, regardless of opinions.


Question time especially for Victorians. What is the significance of the "roadmap" to the next stage having a 14 day average of between 30-50 cases per day? Why not just 30 case average or 50 case average?
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 23:59
  #1711 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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Originally Posted by Climb150 View Post

I have seen so many "experts" on the media spreading fear with their huge death predictions that didn't come true that you can forgive me for being sceptical when they open their mouths again.
Youíre leaving out a very important part of those predictions, which said the death toll would be huge if we didnít take any precautions. Australians ended up taking it seriously (most anyway).

Have a look at the US where they took a half assed approach. Average flu year usually has a toll of 12,000-61,000 dead. The Covid toll so far is almost 200,000 after less than 6 months, and outside of the traditional flu season. Half the country isnít taking it seriously. And their economy is in the toilet too, and society divided.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 00:12
  #1712 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Originally Posted by blubak View Post
Saw queen P on tv in qld yesterday bleating on about some new fire fighting aircraft,WOW ,what a difference 1 will make!
That'll be a QLD fire fighting aircraft to fight QLD fires no doubt.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 00:30
  #1713 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Australia
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Originally Posted by clark y View Post
Question time especially for Victorians. What is the significance of the "roadmap" to the next stage having a 14 day average of between 30-50 cases per day? Why not just 30 case average or 50 case average?
Although the 'roadmap' out of Vic restrictions is based on the best available scientific models, I personally believe that many of the restrictions have been ultra-conservative for political reasons.

Another high spike in cases and subsequent economic/business ramifications will ultimately spell doom for the current government. My views are not aligned with any political party, just seeing it how it is.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 00:41
  #1714 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: australia
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Originally Posted by Turnleft080 View Post
In Mongolia, a couple died of bubonic plague on May 1 after reportedly hunting marmots, large rodents that can harbor
the bacterium that causes the disease, and eating the animal's raw meat and kidneys – which some Mongolians believe is good for their health.
Exfocx sounds
appetising. Hmm I wonder if the WHO approve of this new Mongolian franchise. Do you want chips with that. you said that the BP was no longer around, that it was DEAD!

Spanish Flu (Not a Covid) your correct is a H1 N1 strain caused by thousands of soldiers having poor hygiene and eating poorly during the war in freezing cold conditions. Yeah, that would bring a flu on. No problem. It wasn't caused by what you claim. "The war may also have reduced people's resistance to the virus. Some speculate the soldiers' immune systems were weakened by malnourishment, as well as the stresses of combat and chemical attacks, increasing their susceptibility." REDUCED their resistance!
When the war finished they transported the strain everywhere. what, just like cv! Yeah, mass transportation.
"Scientists offer several possible explanations for the high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Some analyses have shown the virus to be particularly deadly because it triggers a cytokine storm, which ravages the stronger immune system of young adults.[6]Oh, that doesn't coincide with your statement?
Note the word "POSSIBLE". So there not really sure. Leave that at that. Oh! a lot of evidence around that good old Vit D can protect you from a cytokine storm. I reckon the soldiers were very very D deficient and when that happens your susceptible to anything. Then what caused otherwise healthy people to die, people with no immune issues?

Viruses are dead cells out in the open until they infiltrate you, agreed. When you sneeze they only live for about 30sec in the open. where did you get this idea from. CV can survive on the surface of different materials from hrs up 3 days.
That's why infection is low in the open and contagious indoors. not for the reasons you give and it depends on the density of people, sports event and your claim is rubbish.
As I said before lockdowns prolong the virus thanks for the discussion There is no evidence AT ALL that supports that!.
***************


Last edited by exfocx; 17th Sep 2020 at 00:45. Reason: move a sentence
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 00:49
  #1715 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Sydney
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
Youíre leaving out a very important part of those predictions, which said the death toll would be huge if we didnít take any precautions. Australians ended up taking it seriously (most anyway).

Have a look at the US where they took a half assed approach. Average flu year usually has a toll of 12,000-61,000 dead. The Covid toll so far is almost 200,000 after less than 6 months, and outside of the traditional flu season. Half the country isnít taking it seriously. And their economy is in the toilet too, and society divided.
Are these the experts that said without measures CoVID would kill 2 million in the USA but with containment it would only be 1 million? Well how many have died so far is 200,000. That's with your so called half assed approach.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 00:52
  #1716 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
Youíre leaving out a very important part of those predictions, which said the death toll would be huge if we didnít take any precautions..................................

Have a look at the US where they took a half assed approach. Average flu year usually has a toll of 12,000-61,000 dead. The Covid toll so far is almost 200,000 after less than 6 months, and outside of the traditional flu season. Half the country isnít taking it seriously. And their economy is in the toilet too, and society divided.

Exactly! Everyone who argues the point always seem to conveniently leave this out.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 00:54
  #1717 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Coal Face
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Originally Posted by Stickshift3000 View Post
Although the 'roadmap' out of Vic restrictions is based on the best available scientific models, I personally believe that many of the restrictions have been ultra-conservative for political reasons.

Another high spike in cases and subsequent economic/business ramifications will ultimately spell doom for the current government. My views are not aligned with any political party, just seeing it how it is.
You don't seem to understand. Survival of the human race is at stake. We're facing extinction, mate.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 01:10
  #1718 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sydney
Age: 57
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Have a look at the US where they took a half assed approach. Average flu year usually has a toll of 12,000-61,000 dead. The Covid toll so far is almost 200,000 after less than 6 months, and outside of the traditional flu season. Half the country isn’t taking it seriously. And their economy is in the toilet too, and society divided.
True. Partially.

But you will acknowledge that most 'flu deaths are never diagnosed. No one goes around nursing homes doing nasal PCR for 'flu - so all those people died of "old age" or "dementia", or something else. Thousands of people die from the 'flu each year and are never included in the stats.

The most honest data is total deaths. There has been a spike in total deaths, and this is due to COVID. But the harder we have looked for COVID, the more we have seen it.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 01:36
  #1719 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
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Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
True. Partially.

But you will acknowledge that most 'flu deaths are never diagnosed. No one goes around nursing homes doing nasal PCR for 'flu - so all those people died of "old age" or "dementia", or something else. Thousands of people die from the 'flu each year and are never included in the stats.

The most honest data is total deaths. There has been a spike in total deaths, and this is due to COVID. But the harder we have looked for COVID, the more we have seen it.
So what you're saying is they subscribed death to anything but flu, they go to all the trouble to to give a cause of death, but for some reason, they ignore the actual cause of death! Really?

I wouldn't acknowledge that most flu deaths are never diagnosed. I very certain you haven't had anyone close, like your mother for instance, where you would have spent a reasonable amount of time in an aged care home, otherwise you'd know they are VERY aware of flu as a killer of the residents. Talk to any Dr caring for residents in an aged care home and that's what they will tell you.

Now, you say the most honest data is totally deaths etc etc etc. And your public health credentials in data analysis is what again? I'm pretty certain that public health officials have been doing this for a bit longer than anyone on here.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 01:55
  #1720 (permalink)  
 
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So what you're saying is they subscribed death to anything but flu, they go to all the trouble to to give a cause of death, but for some reason, they ignore the actual cause of death! Really?
No. I am saying there is very little attention given to the cause of death in nursing homes. It took a while before Italy recognised the scale of COVID deaths in the nursing homes - everyone was focussed on hospitals.

I wouldn't acknowledge that most flu deaths are never diagnosed.
It is widely accepted we have not diagnosed most COVID infections in Australia. Estimates vary between 70,000 to 500,000 total infections. Take your pick. And that is for a disease with unprecedented effort and expense directed at testing.

I very certain you haven't had anyone close, like your mother for instance, where you would have spent a reasonable amount of time in an aged care home, otherwise you'd know they are VERY aware of flu as a killer of the residents. Talk to any Dr caring for residents in an aged care home and that's what they will tell you.
Wrong
I don't have to talk to a doctor - I look after patients in nursing homes. I tell the relatives that 'flu was a likely / possible cause of death, but could also have been aspiration, heart attack, stroke, pulmonary embolism - and that I can't be sure without testing.

Official 'flu data for Australia only counts lab confirmed cases. Again, this does not happen in nursing homes.

Have you ever previously seen teams of clinicians swabbing everyone in nursing homes? No, nor have I.

30+ years as a clinician, with some post-grad training in public health
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