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Old 14th Sep 2020, 02:04
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Originally Posted by Black Maria View Post
This says it all in relation to the Qld Borders.....

Sydney family wishing to see ill father in Queensland, finally granted permission after becoming AFL footballers.

Queensland’s Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says she will allow a Sydney family to enter the state in order to see their critically ill father, after learning the family had become professional footballers.

The family took the unusual step of becoming professional athletes, after it became clear there was no other way to enter the state.

“We did consider becoming Tom Hanks and shooting a movie on the Gold Coast, but in the end we decided it would be easier to get on the list of an AFL club,” family member Emily Bryson said.

“In hindsight we should’ve just become an AFL administrator, rather than going through all of the training to become a player, but that’s in the past now”.

Premier Palaszczuk said she made no apologies for Queensland’s border restrictions. “I want to be very clear: we are doing this to keep all Queenslanders safe and to win an election. So unless your work is absolutely vital – like playing four quarters of footy or making a movie about Elvis Presley – you aren’t welcome”.
Like i have said many times,she(but not alone) likes all the things that make her look good but doesnt like when the actual facts come out about things she tries to hide.
Their cho is another joke,if she cant cop criticism,move on.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 02:16
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ex ABC News: Chief Health Officer responds to toll of receiving death threats......

Extract:
Queensland's Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young has been placed under police protection after receiving death threats.

Key points:

  • Threats have been made against the Chief Health Officer life
  • Dr Jeannette Young had been receiving up to 100 requests for exemptions per day
  • Queensland recorded zero new coronavirus cases for the second consecutive day

Dr Young has come under mounting criticism due to her stance on border restrictions, but said she now feels safe and supported after being placed under police protection.
Article link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-...utive/12650210

rgds
S28
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 02:22
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I want to make it very clear, in fact clearer than clear! Now look, I couldn't make this any clearer than the last time of making it clear. The fact is the matter in my mind is clear.
What part of making it clear don't you get. For heavens sake for the final time let me make it clear we have said "I want to make it clear" more times this year than in the last
120 years of federation. Are we clear. Crystal.

written and spoken by, The lets make it clear party. The clear road to recovery.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 02:37
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Well, I think we are agreed, this is serious, of the most serious seriousness.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 02:42
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Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post
Well, I think we are agreed, this is serious, of the most serious seriousness.
YEEEEEEEEEES minister.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 02:46
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Seriously Serious!
I don't think that is the right question and I want to make this quite clear, this is a very serious matter.

I loved that show.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 03:05
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Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post
Seriously Serious!
I don't think that is the right question and I want to make this quite clear, this is a very serious matter.

I loved that show.

Jenny Mikakos, Sutton, Dan Andrews verses Sir Humphrey, Bernard, Jim Hacker. I can't distinguish, the better show.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 03:18
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Originally Posted by Section28- BE View Post
ABC News: Chief Health Officer responds to toll of receiving death threats......
Jeanette Young is Qld’s Chief Health Officer and has been in the role for 15 years, a professor in the School of Public Health at UQ, a former Director of Medical Services at hospitals, an ER doctor and dealt with the Swine Flu and MERS epidemics in her time as CHO.

And do tell, what qualifications/experience do her critics have? And who has stoked a mindset where a doctor has received death threats (actual credible threats as she requires protection) for doing her job? I can think of some culprits in our media for starters....
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 03:46
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
Jeanette Young is Qld’s Chief Health Officer and has been in the role for 15 years, a professor in the School of Public Health at UQ, a former Director of Medical Services at hospitals, an ER doctor and dealt with the Swine Flu and MERS epidemics in her time as CHO.

And do tell, what qualifications/experience do her critics have? And who has stoked a mindset where a doctor has received death threats (actual credible threats as she requires protection) for doing her job? I can think of some culprits in our media for starters....
Thanks for the resume, Dre...so she’s beyond critique, is she? Are you satisfied with her management of the border..which should never have been closed in the first place?
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 03:50
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
And do tell, what qualifications/experience do her critics have?
At a guess, they're people who don't have the Government-funded silver spoon in their mouth and actually have to work for a living... If the CHO's are really that concerned about the death toll, why do they still permit tobacco use - arguably the single most-easily controlled way to prevent lung and bronchial cancer, that killed 8,684 people in Australia last year......

As has been stated above, they're Doctors. They may be very good Doctors, but they are still just Doctors. They have been granted extraordinary powers, powers that have never-before been issued in Australia in this manner, which have no appeal process and no recourse or any other oversight. A fundamental concept in the legal system in Australia, and elsewhere, is the right to appeal. Under WA & Qld restrictions, there is nothing of the sort. No means no and if you're on the wrong side of that answer, you're screwed, without so much as a "Sorry Bucko!".

Tell a Doctor you can close the border to anywhere with a COVID case and of course they will jump at that opportunity. Tell an Economist to close the border to anywhere with a COVID case and they'd be aghast at the thought. The issue is finding the appropriate middle ground, something WA and Qld have yet to do, especially when Qld is taking less than 1/3rd of the International Arrivals of NSW...
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 04:01
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So median age of person who died from (? with) COVID in Australia = 82 (very similar to USA white decedents)

USA has stratified median age of death by ethnic background
81 (IQR 71-88) for white decedents
72 (IQR 62-81) for non-white, non-Hispanic decedents
71 ( IQR 59-81) for Hispanic decedents

Australian median life expectancy = 83 years (so Australian's who die from COVID are very slightly older than Australian's who die from all other causes).
Average life expectancy of an 85 year old is 6 years - so you have a 75% chance of living another 3 years, a 50% chance of living another 6, and a 25% chance of living another 10.
Put another way, the for a person aged 85, the average annual risk of death is 10% (12% male and 9% female). Yes the dataset and hence numbers are slightly different, but you get the general idea.

For comparison, the average mortality for some aged 85 getting COVID is estimated to be about 10% (this figure is a bit rubbery). So about the same risk again as you already had by virtue of being 85. However the risk of dying from COVID is expressed over a couple of weeks, while the annual risk of dying is expressed over 52 weeks.

So getting COVID aged 85
Likely doubles your risk of dying in the next 12 months (from 10 to 20%)
With most of this increase expressed over the first few weeks

COVID is not a nothing. And I don't believe anyone has suggested otherwise.

But at 85, life (i.e. being 85) is risky. An elderly relative once told me "I don't buy green bananas."

And maybe we have got this out of proportion.

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Old 14th Sep 2020, 04:52
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Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
So median age of person who died from (? with) COVID in Australia = 82 (very similar to USA white decedents)

USA has stratified median age of death by ethnic background
81 (IQR 71-88) for white decedents
72 (IQR 62-81) for non-white, non-Hispanic decedents
71 ( IQR 59-81) for Hispanic decedents

Australian median life expectancy = 83 years (so Australian's who die from COVID are very slightly older than Australian's who die from all other causes).
Average life expectancy of an 85 year old is 6 years - so you have a 75% chance of living another 3 years, a 50% chance of living another 6, and a 25% chance of living another 10.
Put another way, the for a person aged 85, the average annual risk of death is 10% (12% male and 9% female). Yes the dataset and hence numbers are slightly different, but you get the general idea.

For comparison, the average mortality for some aged 85 getting COVID is estimated to be about 10% (this figure is a bit rubbery). So about the same risk again as you already had by virtue of being 85. However the risk of dying from COVID is expressed over a couple of weeks, while the annual risk of dying is expressed over 52 weeks.

So getting COVID aged 85
Likely doubles your risk of dying in the next 12 months (from 10 to 20%)
With most of this increase expressed over the first few weeks

COVID is not a nothing. And I don't believe anyone has suggested otherwise.

But at 85, life (i.e. being 85) is risky. An elderly relative once told me "I don't buy green bananas."

And maybe we have got this out of proportion.
How many times to we have to say it, "ITS NOT ABOUT DYING" it's about infection and the chances of being returned to normal. The evidence thus far suggests you don't. 21 million from 8 billion is not enough to know for sure what that is along with the relatively short time frame to access long term impact of an infection.

If everyone recovered said, yeah fully restored no difference at all and there doesn't appear to be any longer term issues either, then yes, we the greater majority probably would be willing to take that risk and let it rip. Until we have those answers or a vaccine becomes available so we don't need to know those answers, we proceed with great caution. It would be foolish to do otherwise. I still wouldn't agree to it, if it meant sacrificing our medical staff as has been the case globally.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 05:15
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My suspicion is the long term health implications have been greatly overstated.

With high background rates of anxiety and saturation media coverage, lots of weird things will be put down to COVID.

There will also be enormous publication bias (professional and mainstream media). Someone saying they have persisting XYZ will get reported, no matter how implausible any link.

if you doubt the power of these phenomena, just think back to that curious 1980’s Australian epidemic of RSI.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 05:28
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Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
My suspicion is the long term health implications have been greatly overstated.
If you truly believe that and your motivations are strictly unselfish, then you should volunteer to become infected, either as part of a scientific study or a part of the vaccine drug trial.
Why wouldn't you, this is an overstated nothingness right!.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 05:38
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I think I specifically said that it was not a nothing. Yep - 3rd last paragraph.

Working on the health frontline I am happy taking my chances.

And I’ll be happy enough to have the vaccine. The safety data will be rushed of course, with no long term data. But it will probably be ok. Besides it will be compulsory for health so won’t make any difference if I wasn’t happy.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 05:43
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Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
I think I specifically said that it was not a nothing. Yep - 3rd last paragraph.

Working on the health frontline I am happy taking my chances.

And I’ll be happy enough to have the vaccine. The safety data will be rushed of course, with no long term data. But it will probably be ok. Besides it will be compulsory for health so won’t make any difference if I wasn’t happy.
So why are you posting statistical data, that may or may not be presented in context that support your suspicious view.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 06:07
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You guys are entitled to lobby for support, I get it, that's democracy. I don't believe for a minute you'll be successful, but on an outside chance you are and secure a greater majority, then we the minority will have to take it on the chin, walkaway and isolate ourselves. The problem with that in our state is that we can't cope with a VIC type crisis with all hands on deck as it is, a good number of those have already declared that should that happen we have no choice but to walk away and isolate. That situation extends to a good number of essential community services. It's likely to collapse the functional economy of the state, particularly around the capital city. A big call for a covid unaffected state.

The important things to us
We don't want to get infected
We want to live as normally as possible within our state to the crisis is passed
Most importantly we don't want to crash our economy or overwhelm essential services.
Two things that will change our position
A vaccine
A reliable quick test that can be used to better manage our border controls

Last edited by Xeptu; 14th Sep 2020 at 06:32.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 06:30
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The WA CHO has testified the health system there can cope with a COVID case load of 5,000 active cases, made up of 500 new cases a day, 650 in wards and 124 in ICU. Doesn't sound like "can't cope" to me...
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 06:36
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Originally Posted by KRviator View Post
The WA CHO has testified the health system there can cope with a COVID case load of 5,000 active cases, made up of 500 new cases a day, 650 in wards and 124 in ICU. Doesn't sound like "can't cope" to me...
With all hands on deck, we have declared that won't be happening.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 06:40
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So what exactly is the Victorian crisis.

105 hospital admissions? 3 wards. Across the whole state.

11 in ICU? Australia has 2000 ICU beds (public and private) and have surge capacity of another 2000. Of these 4000, figure 25% are in Victoria. So 11/1000 = 1% of resources.

Elderly deaths in residential aged care facilities? Yes that is sad.
About 200,000 Australians live in RACF. So maybe 50,000 in Victoria.
Another way to think of this number is 5-6% of Victorians older than 65.
Approx 20% of these people (so 10,000) die in a given year. That normally passes unnoticed. Infections, dementia, neglect, falls & trauma, cancer, suicide ... 10,000 per year.
Against that background, 500 RACF deaths is sad but perhaps not a crisis.

What about the other side of the ledger. What about the costs of lockdown
Increased mental health and self harm
Increased drug use.
Increased domestic violence
Increased child abuse
Kids disconnected from school
Economic costs
Businesses closed down
Families losing their homes

it’s not a simple exercise to balance these

But it is intellectually dishonest not to at least recognise the other side of the ledger.
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