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Old 5th Sep 2020, 03:40
  #1281 (permalink)  
 
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Just another day in lock-down!
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 03:49
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Originally Posted by LapSap
And therein lies the rub.
You don't care. You are retired; likely with your nice house(s), pension/super/investments. Getting up each morning and reading the paper, PPRuNe and pottering around in your own little world.
You could apparently care less if the borders never reopen.
Sod the rest of the population.

As I alluded to previously but you chose to be obtuse, I hope that when YOU are ready to accept the rest of Australia, that you don't mind if WE turn our backs on you and say sod off- stay in your own little world for a few more years. We realized we don't need you.
Nailed it, the majority of us in the world have to work out how we are going to make a life of this for the next 30-60 years
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 04:12
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Originally Posted by LapSap
And therein lies the rub.
You don't care. You are retired; likely with your nice house(s), pension/super/investments. Getting up each morning and reading the paper, PPRuNe and pottering around in your own little world.
You could apparently care less if the borders never reopen.
Sod the rest of the population.

As I alluded to previously but you chose to be obtuse, I hope that when YOU are ready to accept the rest of Australia, that you don't mind if WE turn our backs on you and say sod off- stay in your own little world for a few more years. We realized we don't need you.
Precisely. Those in favor of this rubbish have nothing to lose nothing to gain. Not effected in anyway. What ever is left of this world post Covid, won’t be much I don’t think, somehow we have to find a way to live in it, whatever it looks like.
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 04:17
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I think what Xeptu was eluding to is should we open up and get on with it!

There is a greater chance of pilots getting a case of COVID-19 that will cause a loss of their medical (for life) - He/She however no longer requires a class 1 medical, so being able to maintain one is not relevant to them any longer.

On the other hand current pilots may need to figure what other type of work they might wish to do for the next 30-60 years as flying will no longer be an option (with no medical).

Another 4-5 years of uni with another education bill to repay on top of the pilot loan - while starting at the bottom when they get employed in the new role.

It just might be wiser to allow a year or three for the current flying work to regain pre covid levels (as broadly predicted) than start a new career (that based on time and cost of a reasonable replacement career only).
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 04:23
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Originally Posted by LapSap
And therein lies the rub.
You don't care. You are retired; likely with your nice house(s), pension/super/investments. Getting up each morning and reading the paper, PPRuNe and pottering around in your own little world.
You could apparently care less if the borders never reopen.
Sod the rest of the population.

As I alluded to previously but you chose to be obtuse, I hope that when YOU are ready to accept the rest of Australia, that you don't mind if WE turn our backs on you and say sod off- stay in your own little world for a few more years. We realized we don't need you.
Fair enough, if that's how you feel, we really don't mind, Goodluck with it then.
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 04:27
  #1286 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bend alot
I think what Xeptu was eluding to is should we open up and get on with it!

There is a greater chance of pilots getting a case of COVID-19 that will cause a loss of their medical (for life) - He/She however no longer requires a class 1 medical, so being able to maintain one is not relevant to them any longer.

On the other hand current pilots may need to figure what other type of work they might wish to do for the next 30-60 years as flying will no longer be an option (with no medical).
Exactly Correct! Someone with a brain at last, I always knew there were a few idiots in the Industry in my time as well, I see the situation hasn't improved.
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 05:02
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For you lot that want the borders open and think that's going to make a difference. I grew up through the last recession with nothing and no help, we were truly all in it together. That was a minus 4% recession, this one is looking in the order of minus 10%. That "scares me", even though today I'm regarded as a wealthy person with a couple of primary producing properties, a drilling company and a city residence, there was nothing lucky about that. I'm sure you're the very best pilot in the very best airline, but that isn't going to make diddly squat difference if there's no demand for air travel, for which I'm sure there won't be for at least the next two years and that's got nothing to do with closed borders and living with a virus.
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 06:15
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Mate can you take your negativity somewhere else.... we’re all sick of it
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 06:21
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Originally Posted by Bend alot
Again I thank you for putting in a effort in your reply.

I will start with Sweden - The Swedish constitution prevents a lock-down in peace time. The government agency responsible :- in this case the Public Health Agency must initiate all actions (recommendations) to prevent the virus in accordance with Swedish law. The Swedish public is expected to follow a series of "NON- VOLUNTARY" recommendations from the responsible government agency. On 18 March, the Health Agency recommended that everyone should avoid travelling within the country, on 13 May this "recommendation" was softened to "commonsense travel" 1-2 hrs from home. This was mostly lifted about 3 months later on 13 June. Mobile phone tracking revealed most people followed the recommendations.

I could be mistaken, but that sounds like the lock-down you are having when you are not having a lock-down.

It is worth noting Sweden does not have internal borders unlike Australia, it is about double the size of Victoria with roughly double the population.

Sweden certainly has a high number of deaths (even following recommendations) it is very high compared to other Nordic countries. On current measurable data the slump in the economies is similar with other Nordic countries and without sign it will improve faster than other countries. Sweden had schools and universities closed and other measures were taken, but most think it was mostly a free to do anything approach because the government did not (could not) make rules.

In Australia we have known via many media reports that our aged care has been very bad, highlighted by numerous current affairs shows over more than a decade - WE have done nothing to address this, the old Jack system at play.

That said 2017-18 more than 1.2 million people received aged care services (over 65) only 7% (84,000) accessed residential aged care (aged care homes).
22% (264,000) accessed subsidised support at home.
71% (852,000) without subsidised support at home.

So the vast majority of the vulnerable elderly people live at home and get visited by age care worker/s varying times a week mostly by staff on close to the minimum wage. While it is easy to lock-down an aged care home, that will only protect around 7% of that group (age only) of vulnerable people. The rest are spread throughout the community and with restrictions removed will be exposed to greater community transmission - age care workers, home delivery, medical visits, gardener, plumber are all a greater risk of transmission to them than now.

Then there are the other vulnerable groups - one being around 800,000 Aboriginal and Torres Straight Islander people.The science over the last 6 months proves we do not have enough evidence on what has worked, heard immunity is a perfect example or if it is possible to catch the same strain twice? Obviously after 6 months it is not possible to know what long term health impacts are on mild severe cases after recovery. Even the at risk age ranges from 50 to 60 and 70 (a lot of people 50 up to 69).

​​​​​​​I am not sure we have the ability or the resources to protect the vulnerable, it is a far greater task than locking up the aged care facilities. If of course there is sincerity in protecting all the vulnerable in a partly humane way.

​​​​​​​I am also guessing that most of Australia's individual wealth is held by around the 60ish age group - might not be the best idea economically, to isolate them - that could be a spectacular backfire.
Thanks to you as well for a considered response!

The only reason I use Sweden is because the data is useful because they didn’t have a hard lockdown. So if you’re looking for a comparison there’s not many other options.

That being said, the Swedish Government has acknowledged their own failings in managing the aged care sector.

- More than 50% of deaths were in aged care homes
- 90% of deaths were aged over 70.

- in Victoria something like 90% of the deaths so far are in aged care homes.

In Australia most people only go in an aged care home for the last few years of their lives. So yes there may only be a couple of hundred thousand in those centres but taking the measures I have suggested above would make a significant difference to the death rate from COVID. It also has the convenient side effect of better protection during the annual flu season!!! Which also rages through aged care homes, it’s just not reported daily every winter by the Premiers....

Australia is in a different position to other countries. It’s an acknowledged advantage (in various Govt health reports) that being an island, relatively well isolated from the rest of the world, means in ANY outbreak of disease, Australia fares better than most other countries. Even if we do NOTHING.

This natural advantage should drive our response. A strong and well managed international quarantine system should have been the focus back in April/May. BUT at the same time, the public needs to be made aware it’s not 100% secure. The inevitable will happen and the virus will get out.

This is where public education comes in. Masks should be mandatory in all public areas across Australia regardless of current case numbers. I think the fact you are told to wear a mask is a constant reminder of what we are all up against. To me anyway, it makes you a bit more cautious, more likely to use sanitiser regularly.

In some ways I think the constant daily briefings by Premiers may actually be a bad thing. There has to be “Covid fatigue” creeping in now. But more importantly, if you get specific information on deaths etc broken down by suburb, how many of us think “that’s not where I live, it’s all good!”

If the public message was:
”it’s in the community, wear a mask etc, avoid going out if you are vulnerable”
How many of you would act differently if the warnings were more general and the onus was on you to protect yourself?? (In the absence of specific suburb information).

Contact tracing (aka NSW) needs more resources. Jumping on the virus when it pops up requires effort. Victoria has thoroughly failed in this regard. This focus combined with a well run quarantine system should keep the daily case numbers well within the capacity of our health systems. These are probably the two MOST IMPORTANT things that our various governments can do right now.

While all this is going on, resources can be allocated to protecting the over 70’s as mentioned. Building a system that keeps as many of them safe as possible (at home as well). Improving home delivery, medical visits etc as mentioned before. Thus again protecting them as much as possible when the inevitable happens and the virus appears in their town or suburb.

As for internal (state) borders. I don’t believe QLD will be able to sustain it’s border policy. The east coast (QLD/NSW/VIC) are to well connected and have large border communities to make this a practical long term solution. Palaszczuk is wrong in this aspect, especially with her requirements to open up again (no transmission for 28 days). On the other side, Western Australia is completely different. There are no large border towns and far less reliance on imports/exports to the eastern states. McGovern is right to point out that outbreaks in mining camps would have a significant affect on the state economy. You only need to look to Brazil to see what that looks like. So in the medium term I think the political pressure will continue to grow on QLD until they align with NSW/VIC. But I think WA will continue to do their own thing for a long time yet.

As mentioned, if you want to really learn something, look at the actual government reports for various countries around the world. Even here in Australia there are reports put out every year on respiratory diseases. There’s an annual influenza report as well. Don’t just go with the narrative driven by hysterical media and poll driven Premiers. There is a lot of really good information out there RIGHT NOW that can explain some really useful options to fight Covid.


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Old 5th Sep 2020, 06:46
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Rational debate is rare, but good to see.

I shall reply soon with just my personal thoughts on the mater.

Thanks for your valid reply.
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 06:52
  #1291 (permalink)  
 
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Here’s a fun web page for the statistically inclined.

Scroll down to the paragraph entitled comorbidities.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...#Comorbidities


Only SIX percent of all the 190,000 or so COVID attributed deaths in the USA had zero comorbidities, meaning 94% had other ailments. The average number of comorbidities suffered by those who died was 2.46 per patient.

Lots of interesting numbers there. Food for thought.
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 07:01
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Originally Posted by lucille
Here’s a fun web page for the statistically inclined.

Scroll down to the paragraph entitled comorbidities.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...#Comorbidities


Only SIX percent of all the 190,000 or so COVID attributed deaths in the USA had zero comorbidities, meaning 94% had other ailments. The average number of comorbidities suffered by those who died was 2.46 per patient.

Lots of interesting numbers there. Food for thought.
What really needs to be looked at is what they call "extra deaths" - lots of interesting numbers there.

The number of influenza related deaths due to social distancing and travel restrictions is nothing short of astonishing, from memory better than 1 tenth of recent years, or a 90% decline. But my memory is old.
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 07:03
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Originally Posted by Xeptu
if there's no demand for air travel, for which I'm sure there won't be for at least the next two years and that's got nothing to do with closed borders and living with a virus.
The only reason there will be no demand for air travel is because the borders are closed. If air travel has not returned before two years QF VA REX and lot of other operators will cease to exist. The destruction will be a lot more than the loss of a few airlines as I’m sure you know. I do have a self interest you don’t that’s why you don’t care, soon will be a time when you’re directly affected then you might think a little different. My issue with it, all these premiers are doing the wrong thing they have broken rank and file to what was agreed in March. But, deep down like yourself they don’t care. Cant blame them either they have their financial position and livelihood that is very secure as they ride off into the sunset with their pensions funded by your business and many other tax paying resident, some will even be gone before this is all over.
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 07:35
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Originally Posted by lucille
Here’s a fun web page for the statistically inclined.

Scroll down to the paragraph entitled comorbidities.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...#Comorbidities


Only SIX percent of all the 190,000 or so COVID attributed deaths in the USA had zero comorbidities, meaning 94% had other ailments. The average number of comorbidities suffered by those who died was 2.46 per patient.

Lots of interesting numbers there. Food for thought.
If unfortunately you happen to pass by car accident, run over by bus, crash in an aircraft, get electrocuted by lightening,
die of fright, fall & hit your head on a concrete block, shark attack, shot, and you
happen to have a covid sample in your system during post mortem, then your death certificate will show died of covid.
The WHO must justify their very late decision to declare a pandemic due to their (sit on the hands policy.) For goodness sake get those numbers up.
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 07:40
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Originally Posted by Turnleft080
If unfortunately you happen to pass by car accident, run over by bus, crash in an aircraft, get electrocuted by lightening,
die of fright, fall & hit your head on a concrete block, shark attack, shot, and you
happen to have a covid sample in your system during post mortem, then your death certificate will show died of covid.
The WHO must justify their very late decision to declare a pandemic due to their (sit on the hands policy.) For goodness sake get those numbers up.
I call for a shot of proof on this statement.
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 09:13
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Originally Posted by lucille
Here’s a fun web page for the statistically inclined.

Scroll down to the paragraph entitled comorbidities.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...#Comorbidities


Only SIX percent of all the 190,000 or so COVID attributed deaths in the USA had zero comorbidities, meaning 94% had other ailments. The average number of comorbidities suffered by those who died was 2.46 per patient.

Lots of interesting numbers there. Food for thought.
Regardless of the cause of death, the number of “excess deaths” in every country around the world shows something nasty is working its way through the population.

This link shows a large spike in the USA. Similar trends are reported in the UK and Sweden.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

Although it’s also worth noting that the UK and Sweden have dropped back to more “normal” mortality rates. Even the USA is significantly lower than the peak in early April.

Anyone that says “only 6% of deaths are really due to COVID” is missing the point entirely. How many people die on a normal day with multiple reasons? I don’t know and I’ll bet just about no one on here knows either. Death I’m sure is never very simple, especially if you’re old and have many health issues.

Fact is “excess mortality” is probably one of the best statistics we have to show the real threat from the pandemic:
- “it’s the same as the flu”
(nope the peaks are much higher than a bad flu season)
- “the CDC/WHO/govt is lying about the scamdemic”
(so how do you explain the large spike in total mortality then??)
- etc, etc....
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 09:20
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Originally Posted by Bend alot
I call for a shot of proof on this statement.
The UK government policy was anyone that tests positive and then dies, goes down as a COVID death. They actively searched the death records for people that previously tested positive (even if months before and they since recovered). That has only recently been changed (in August).

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3220

quote from the webpage:

“PHE’s analysis showed that 88% of deaths from covid-19 in England occurred within 28 days of a positive test result, while 96% occurred within 60 days or had covid-19 on the death certificate. As a result, rather than counting anyone who had ever tested positive as a covid associated death, PHE will now use two definitions of death with covid-19 in England.”


The Victorian CMO has publicly stated (in a news conference) that even deaths in palliative care are counted as a COVID death if they test positive. I’m sure it goes down as an extra reason on the death certificate, but to the media it’s presented as a COVID death.

Thats just two governments that I’ve paid attention to how they record deaths. Now all that being said, I’m sure in the UK the number of “wrong” deaths from COVID is a relatively small number of the total. Likewise in Victoria we’ll never know how many older people just died but not from COVID, cause they refuse to breakdown the numbers.

But it all just distracts from the fact “excess people” are dying at the moment (see my previous post).
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 09:47
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Australia is at least 6 months behind the rest of the world

Looking at the politics of COVID and how that relates to the state borders, I think Australia is about 6 months behind the rest of the world.

For example in France, their daily case numbers have spiked back above even the March and April peaks, yet the government has clearly stated they will not lockdown again.

Even the last few weeks has seen the political winds start to swing in Aus. Scomo and the Coalition are trying to get a consensus on hotspot definition etc that the states will follow. NSW has stated their displeasure with the requirements to reopen the QLD border. There’s been an increasing amount of noise from various business groups about the need for some future certainty for allowing them to reopen. All of these discussions and debates need to happen before anything changes.

I think we’ll see some actual movement by Christmas with some more reality checks to come next year as unemployment continues to rise.

Plus the QLD election will be another interesting thing to watch. Labor is trying to make it about COVID and I imagine they’ll win again. But once that’s over, maybe they’ll soften their stance on the border now the political threat has passed.

SA appears to be moving to try and allow movement between SA/NSW and I’d imagine as the Vic cases continue to drop they’ll open that border too.

How long will Tasmania hold out? Especially as the summer tourist season passes them by if the borders are still shut.

WA will continue on their own path.
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 09:56
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Originally Posted by aviation_enthus
The UK government policy was anyone that tests positive and then dies, goes down as a COVID death. They actively searched the death records for people that previously tested positive (even if months before and they since recovered). That has only recently been changed (in August).

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3220

quote from the webpage:

“PHE’s analysis showed that 88% of deaths from covid-19 in England occurred within 28 days of a positive test result, while 96% occurred within 60 days or had covid-19 on the death certificate. As a result, rather than counting anyone who had ever tested positive as a covid associated death, PHE will now use two definitions of death with covid-19 in England.”


The Victorian CMO has publicly stated (in a news conference) that even deaths in palliative care are counted as a COVID death if they test positive. I’m sure it goes down as an extra reason on the death certificate, but to the media it’s presented as a COVID death.

Thats just two governments that I’ve paid attention to how they record deaths. Now all that being said, I’m sure in the UK the number of “wrong” deaths from COVID is a relatively small number of the total. Likewise in Victoria we’ll never know how many older people just died but not from COVID, cause they refuse to breakdown the numbers.

But it all just distracts from the fact “excess people” are dying at the moment (see my previous post).
I agree, but also it is expected Sweden initial and now total deaths are understated due to initial under testing and subsequent faulty test kits.

But no point to argue, as we both agree the "excess" is obvious.
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Old 5th Sep 2020, 11:38
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Originally Posted by Ragnor
The only reason there will be no demand for air travel is because the borders are closed. If air travel has not returned before two years QF VA REX and lot of other operators will cease to exist. The destruction will be a lot more than the loss of a few airlines as I’m sure you know. I do have a self interest you don’t that’s why you don’t care, soon will be a time when you’re directly affected then you might think a little different. My issue with it, all these premiers are doing the wrong thing they have broken rank and file to what was agreed in March. But, deep down like yourself they don’t care. Cant blame them either they have their financial position and livelihood that is very secure as they ride off into the sunset with their pensions funded by your business and many other tax paying resident, some will even be gone before this is all over.
Instead of being angry at least try to see my message, yes the demand for air travel ended because of the border closures, but that was just the cause (trigger event) not the reason. The reason is because of the impact of a recession, which is going to be a long time, long after the borders are open again. (internal borders anyway) I will be directly effected, I'm already adjusting to minimise the impact. None of my staff will be stood down or made redundant, if I have to carry them to the very end myself. I know what to expect, I have always been ready for it. The airlines is a fickle business, good one day in crisis the next, first effected, last to recover. I was in it for 30 years I know, I've been where you are 3 times in fact. It's the reason I retired early, I felt my usefulness was being wasted. Yes there's going to be carnage and few operators will survive as they are today, it's happened enough times to know. The premiers are not doing the wrong thing, they are doing what is expected of them in the best interests of the greater majority of their states population. Yes we do care, but no-one has a magic wand to fix the problem. The sooner you accept and embrace the change, the sooner you can get on with your life. That is the most important thing.
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