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Old 7th Jan 2022, 23:06
  #9201 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Climb150
Which hospital ICU's are being over run?
Where did I say any were?
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Old 7th Jan 2022, 23:11
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz
Plus the rapidly filling ICUs, cancelled elective surgeries, exhausted health care workers and rising deaths.
All of which was expected. Things happening faster with the new variant, could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
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Old 7th Jan 2022, 23:16
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Originally Posted by Jester64
All of which was expected. Things happening faster with the new variant, could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
Yes. But you were implying restrictions should have been lifted earlier. That would have been a disaster.

Blessing? Infections are up 3000% on two weeks ago. ICU admissions are a two week lagging indicator. 3000% of current ICU admissions exceeds current capacity by about 50%. We are in trouble,
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Old 7th Jan 2022, 23:37
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz
Yes. But you were implying restrictions should have been lifted earlier. That would have been a disaster.

Blessing? Infections are up 3000% on two weeks ago. ICU admissions are a two week lagging indicator. 3000% of current ICU admissions exceeds current capacity by about 50%. We are in trouble,
You have me mistaken if you think that Iíve been implying that the borders should have reopened earlier.

FWIW, quotes from an article published yesterday: ďExperts say Omicron will likely have more recorded cases but will place a similar strain on the system as the flu season.

Data from the NSW governmentís 2017 epidemiology report showed that 9330 people were hospitalised from *influenza and a further 6539 were hospitalised with influenza as a secondary illness.Ē

Get a grip mate. Just 72 on ventilators Australia wide and 269 serious / critical.

What I mean by blessing in disguise is that if
Omicron rips through the entire population on the east coast very quickly, the infection numbers will fall very rapidly. Combine that with very high rates of vaccinations and the east coast will be in a good position.



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Old 8th Jan 2022, 00:08
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Originally Posted by Jester64

FWIW, quotes from an article published yesterday: “Experts say Omicron will likely have more recorded cases but will place a similar strain on the system as the flu season.

Data from the NSW government’s 2017 epidemiology report showed that 9330 people were hospitalised from *influenza and a further 6539 were hospitalised with influenza as a secondary illness.”

Get a grip mate. Just 72 on ventilators Australia wide and 269 serious / critical.

What I mean by blessing in disguise is that if
Omicron rips through the entire population on the east coast very quickly, the infection numbers will fall very rapidly. Combine that with very high rates of vaccinations and the east coast will be in a good position.
An article published where?

9330 cases FOR THE YEAR- NOT all at once. There are over 1700 hostpitilisations NOW and that will likely rise 10 fold in the comming weeks- likewise "just" 72 on ventilators- most of them would have been infected around 2 weeks ago- what's the percentage increase that 72 represents from a month ago? project that forwrd and we run out of ventilators- and that'sfor ANYONE who needs one- very quickly.

Anyway, we are both conjecturing- do you a deal. We will both post here on 29th of the month- I predict we will at or very near caoacity for ICUs and ventalators- you think differently?
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 00:13
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz

Anyway, we are both conjecturing- do you a deal. We will both post here on 29th of the month- I predict we will at or very near caoacity for ICUs and ventalators- you think differently?
I donít think Iíve ever been this picky on prune, but damn your deal would have so much more gumption if you could spell ventilator.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 00:31
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz
An article published where?

9330 cases FOR THE YEAR- NOT all at once. There are over 1700 hostpitilisations NOW and that will likely rise 10 fold in the comming weeks- likewise "just" 72 on ventilators- most of them would have been infected around 2 weeks ago- what's the percentage increase that 72 represents from a month ago? project that forwrd and we run out of ventilators- and that'sfor ANYONE who needs one- very quickly.

Anyway, we are both conjecturing- do you a deal. We will both post here on 29th of the month- I predict we will at or very near caoacity for ICUs and ventalators- you think differently?
Published in mainstream media, thatís why I prefixed with ĎFWIWí. The key data take from it is the numbers.

I get what you are saying regarding projecting the numbers forward and I agree on the conjecture but itís a no deal from me - I donít get off on winning arguments on social media, nor do I support the idea. I just wanna see the borders remain opened.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 01:38
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Originally Posted by Jester64
What difference has it made? People are now able to enter most parts of Australia from abroad and from within. That means people can re-connect, freedom of movement is restored for citizens and it also means the recall of many pilots. Itís also meant job offers for me and most of the unemployed pilots I know. To me thatís a sign of the industry being Ďbetter offí.

Thank christ both federal and state governments donít share your view and think that life will be better off with the borders closed. Youíre on the wrong forum to be whinging about the borders being opened. I get how SOPS does because he is happier driving trains then flying planes. Iíd take a guess that you are retired from this industry also?
Not really what I meant. The decision to open up and let it rip has been made, well do that then. To be telling us we have to isolate if infected, get tested if you think you are, cancel events, work from home, etc etc, is "POINTLESS". It's everyone for themselves, our own individual decisions will determine what happens to our economy/recovery. right now all I'm seeing is closed, not available, delayed due to staff shortages. Surely this wasn't the plan. What will I be doing in the short term, not venturing very far from home, I'm sure I'm not alone.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 02:20
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Originally Posted by Xeptu
Not really what I meant. The decision to open up and let it rip has been made, well do that then. To be telling us we have to isolate if infected, get tested if you think you are, cancel events, work from home, etc etc, is "POINTLESS". It's everyone for themselves, our own individual decisions will determine what happens to our economy/recovery. right now all I'm seeing is closed, not available, delayed due to staff shortages. Surely this wasn't the plan. What will I be doing in the short term, not venturing very far from home, I'm sure I'm not alone.
Good to hear itís not what you meant, because itís certainly not what you saidÖanyhow of course it wasnít the plan, the plan was based on the Delta. Omicron threw a spanner in the works with its transmissibility.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 02:40
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Originally Posted by Jester64
Good to hear itís not what you meant, because itís certainly not what you saidÖanyhow of course it wasnít the plan, the plan was based on the Delta. Omicron threw a spanner in the works with its transmissibility.
I don't think what I said initially is of any significant difference. Omicron was present in Australia when our borders opened in SA as is the newest variant IHU, not yet detected in Australia. there will be plenty more yet. It is what it is. Unless the omega strain breaks out somewhere we don't even need to hear about it anymore.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 02:55
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It was present when the border opened yes, but the plan to open and the modelling used to construct the plan was based on the Delta.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 03:09
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Originally Posted by Jester64
It was present when the border opened yes, but the plan to open and the modelling used to construct the plan was based on the Delta.
And I would say the plan to open was purely a political decision, any modelling was about what to expect as a consequence of that decision. I don't believe any of us expected that we would still be isolating, staying home, getting tested when we are not all that unwell, having our supply chains disrupted, staff shortages, cancelling anything. Opening up was supposed to end all that and so it should, at least from a government perspective. we the people will decide what happens from here as a consequence of our own individual decisions and actions. If the majority just get on with it, recovery, if on the other hand they stay home and isolate, recession. The current policy and directions are not helping recovery.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 03:32
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Originally Posted by Xeptu
And I would say the plan to open was purely a political decision, any modelling was about what to expect as a consequence of that decision. I don't believe any of us expected that we would still be isolating, staying home, getting tested when we are not all that unwell, having our supply chains disrupted, staff shortages, cancelling anything. Opening up was supposed to end all that and so it should, at least from a government perspective. we the people will decide what happens from here as a consequence of our own individual decisions and actions. If the majority just get on with it, recovery, if on the other hand they stay home and isolate, recession. The current policy and directions are not helping recovery.
Mate I agree with you there - you wonít find me going and getting tested voluntarily.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 03:49
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Originally Posted by Jester64
Mate I agree with you there - you wonít find me going and getting tested voluntarily.
And that's the question I'm asking really. Now that the borders are open and the virus is spreading like wildfire, I expect to be infected. I'm doing everything I can not to be. Until I know what the impact upon me personally is as a consequence of being infected, I don't intend doing much or going anywhere, even if that takes weeks, months, years. Once I am or have been infected I don't expect to have to comply with any pointless health directions.
So the question is, is everybody else doing or plan to do anything any differently.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 13:26
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz
An article published where?

9330 cases FOR THE YEAR- NOT all at once. There are over 1700 hostpitilisations NOW and that will likely rise 10 fold in the comming weeks- likewise "just" 72 on ventilators- most of them would have been infected around 2 weeks ago- what's the percentage increase that 72 represents from a month ago? project that forwrd and we run out of ventilators- and that'sfor ANYONE who needs one- very quickly.

Anyway, we are both conjecturing- do you a deal. We will both post here on 29th of the month- I predict we will at or very near caoacity for ICUs and ventalators- you think differently?
How many ventilators and ICU beds in NSW? About 2000 each.

How many currently in use for Covid patients? 145 ICU beds and 40 Ventilators. Approx 387 ICU beds taken up with non Covid patients at any one time, so total ICU capacity not even 30% yet. And a good proportion of those were incidental, somewhere between 25-50%.

If you're going to predict that ICU and ventilators will be very near capacity (90%+) by 29/01 then you'd better be hoping for a massive increase, as data from South Africa and Europe has shown the Omicron wave peaks in about a month, so should be on the downswing by late Jan.

Last edited by dr dre; 8th Jan 2022 at 13:47.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 13:38
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz

Blessing? Infections are up 3000% on two weeks ago. ICU admissions are a two week lagging indicator. 3000% of current ICU admissions exceeds current capacity by about 50%. We are in trouble,
You are making a huge logical fallacy in that statement. You are assuming that the rise in cases is matched by a exact rise in hospitalisation/ICU admission, whereas most acknowledge increased infectiousness but decreased severity with Omicron, up to 80% less severe. It's why South Africa suffered about 1/6th the hospitalisation of their Delta wave. I'd expect ICU admissions to level out much lower, and then we really don't know the breakdown of those admitted for Covid reasons and those admitted for other reasons who test positive for regular screening, and are counted in official numbers. They may be asymptomatic. You can hardly say Covid is overloading hospitals then. About 75% of those in ICU in NSW have Delta not Omicron, so what we are seeing is the end of the Delta wave in hospitals, not so the recent rise in cases. The increasing Omicron cases will not cause a similar rise in hospital admissions/ICU

The length stay in hospitals is also lower, from 8 down to 2.8 days on average. I don't know too much about the disease treatment but I imagine you can't be admitted to hospital for Covid, get sent to the ICU, get put on a ventilator, get taken off a ventilator, be monitored back to the ICU, then downgraded to general wards and then discharged all within 2 and a half days, so the severity of the illness and strain on hospitals is surely lower with Omicron.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 20:33
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Originally Posted by dr dre
You are making a huge logical fallacy in that statement. You are assuming that the rise in cases is matched by a exact rise in hospitalisation/ICU admission, whereas most acknowledge increased infectiousness but decreased severity with Omicron, up to 80% less severe. It's why South Africa suffered about 1/6th the hospitalisation of their Delta wave. I'd expect ICU admissions to level out much lower, and then we really don't know the breakdown of those admitted for Covid reasons and those admitted for other reasons who test positive for regular screening, and are counted in official numbers. They may be asymptomatic. You can hardly say Covid is overloading hospitals then. About 75% of those in ICU in NSW have Delta not Omicron, so what we are seeing is the end of the Delta wave in hospitals, not so the recent rise in cases. The increasing Omicron cases will not cause a similar rise in hospital admissions/ICU

The length stay in hospitals is also lower, from 8 down to 2.8 days on average. I don't know too much about the disease treatment but I imagine you can't be admitted to hospital for Covid, get sent to the ICU, get put on a ventilator, get taken off a ventilator, be monitored back to the ICU, then downgraded to general wards and then discharged all within 2 and a half days, so the severity of the illness and strain on hospitals is surely lower with Omicron.
You are not wrong, but there are a lot of maybes and we thinks there. The way Omicron is spreading, it can BE a much less severe ailment on average and still hugely effect our health system. ICU beds don't grow on trees, in particular in terms ofpersonelle, and we only ever had as many as we thought we needed in "normal" times. Hostpitals in the US are facing an absolute crisis- admittedly in places where the Trump factor has led to loow vaccination rates, but we are in for a pretty torrid time.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 20:34
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Originally Posted by dr dre
How many ventilators and ICU beds in NSW? About 2000 each.

How many currently in use for Covid patients? 145 ICU beds and 40 Ventilators. Approx 387 ICU beds taken up with non Covid patients at any one time, so total ICU capacity not even 30% yet. And a good proportion of those were incidental, somewhere between 25-50%.

If you're going to predict that ICU and ventilators will be very near capacity (90%+) by 29/01 then you'd better be hoping for a massive increase, as data from South Africa and Europe has shown the Omicron wave peaks in about a month, so should be on the downswing by late Jan.
I hope you're right.
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 20:36
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Originally Posted by Jester64
Mate I agree with you there - you wonít find me going and getting tested voluntarily.
And thus any pretence of a responsible individual vanishes...
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Old 8th Jan 2022, 21:19
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz
And thus any pretence of a responsible individual vanishes...
Key word being voluntary. As for being responsible - I donít interact with anyone I consider vulnerable. If I am displaying symptoms I would do as Iíve always done and stay home until no longer being symptomatic. The playbook is changing, even the government discourages unnecessary testing.
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