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Old 27th Jul 2021, 14:31
  #6541 (permalink)  
 
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The NSW Premier can urge, wish, strongly encourage etc.all she likes but this situation, now, no longer affords that degree of latitude. It never actually did but given she waited too long and the action she took effectively lagged the outbreak's expansion 'by one local government area/ limo driver' she will now in my view exacerbate the problem in so far as public health is concerned. It takes a command style approach to pull together a team and thereafter a statewide community that can hold out for the relatively few weeks needed to contain this outbreak. She isn't that leader.

There are occasions particularly in politics where spin, political capital, charisma and just plain likeability get a leader out of a bind. Often, rightly or wrongly, a leader can simply 'manage' their way out of a crisis. You can't manage or message your way out of this. The facts don't lie....... Delta covid takes lives across a wider demographic, its more virulent than the Alpha, Beta or Gamma variants, it does have a very long lasting debilitating effect i.e long covid, and vaccines are still months away before all of greater Sydney has two doses.

In aviation, particularly in say the area of EP's we don't softly encourage with words like 'please', 'could you just', 'may I remind everyone' etc. because we know assertiveness saves lives. It gets the best results and whilst at the time some may say its too harsh, to not take that course is failing to properly care for those in your charge. To ease conditions whilst cases and infections are booming is not only fool hardy but clearly a political move. Those calling for a proper, thorough lockdown of all but the most essential of services are nowhere near as vocal or prominent in their public opposition as those who argue that maintaining economic activity should be paramount. She believes right now that if she manages the push back from even just a small section of the community, that will be all it takes to secure the next election.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 15:15
  #6542 (permalink)  
 
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The facts don't lie....... Delta covid takes lives across a wider demographic, its more virulent than the Alpha, Beta or Gamma variants,
Please tell us the facts.
How many lives has Delta taken in Australia this year?
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 16:57
  #6543 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ruprecht
Maybe, but it’s weeks with a lockdown rather than weeks without one. It’s about minimizing damage at this point. I agree it doesn’t look good though.

Eventually though, we will have to examine the costs of the lockdown vs lives saved (or deaths postponed) - but we are a long way from that point.
I think her lockdown will have zero effect, if you can call it a lockdown at all. If it drags out into months, instead of a ring of steel around Sydney as suggested, you'll end up with entire regions within NSW, nearer the surrounding state borders that will want to declare themselves an uninfected quarantine region. Off limits to your own State.

Last edited by Xeptu; 27th Jul 2021 at 17:12.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 21:24
  #6544 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Nulli Secundus
The NSW Premier can urge, wish, strongly encourage etc.all she likes but this situation, now, no longer affords that degree of latitude. It never actually did but given she waited too long and the action she took effectively lagged the outbreak's expansion 'by one local government area/ limo driver' she will now in my view exacerbate the problem in so far as public health is concerned. It takes a command style approach to pull together a team and thereafter a statewide community that can hold out for the relatively few weeks needed to contain this outbreak. She isn't that leader.

There are occasions particularly in politics where spin, political capital, charisma and just plain likeability get a leader out of a bind. Often, rightly or wrongly, a leader can simply 'manage' their way out of a crisis. You can't manage or message your way out of this. The facts don't lie....... Delta covid takes lives across a wider demographic, its more virulent than the Alpha, Beta or Gamma variants, it does have a very long lasting debilitating effect i.e long covid, and vaccines are still months away before all of greater Sydney has two doses.

In aviation, particularly in say the area of EP's we don't softly encourage with words like 'please', 'could you just', 'may I remind everyone' etc. because we know assertiveness saves lives. It gets the best results and whilst at the time some may say its too harsh, to not take that course is failing to properly care for those in your charge. To ease conditions whilst cases and infections are booming is not only fool hardy but clearly a political move. Those calling for a proper, thorough lockdown of all but the most essential of services are nowhere near as vocal or prominent in their public opposition as those who argue that maintaining economic activity should be paramount. She believes right now that if she manages the push back from even just a small section of the community, that will be all it takes to secure the next election.
In response to where you mention about softly encouraging people i have to agree.
I watched part of glayds's presser yesterday & as you say she seems to be trying to be nice all the time whereas with the vic & sa pressers the information being passed to the public is in reality telling us what has to be done.
Many people hate andrews but at least he comes across as a strong leader & in sa the cho nicola spurrier is so switched on(& so she should be).
I dont care what political party they represent,what we need is to get this under control for the good of the whole country.
Not important right now to play politics.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 21:53
  #6545 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
Please tell us the facts.
How many lives has Delta taken in Australia this year?
Not many. But that limited number has been achieved despite controls being in place.
Take the controls away, as ineffective as they may be, and the numbers would be very different.
Please refer Y2020 USA.

Being the cynic that I am, I am starting to wonder whether Beryl isn't silently playing for an end-game that goes "well this is not working, we might as well just open it all up"?
After all, that would fit right in with her earlier pronouncements.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 22:09
  #6546 (permalink)  
 
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If this national cabinet is to achieve anything at all because it has not yet. The conversation with the medical experts not premiers who want to appease ppl with the biggest opinion for their vote, is what is the END GAME! what do they want exactly. U.K latest data still has what I think is a low death rate for the population and comparative to other illness that kill. With a falling positive rate at 30.8% overtime the death rate will fall with a lower infectious rate if the U.K trends continue. We cant especially in NSW lockdown for zero cases and have 80% vax rate we don't have that time as we watch the rest of the world open up. .


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Old 27th Jul 2021, 23:18
  #6547 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
Please tell us the facts.
How many lives has Delta taken in Australia this year?
Assuming all the deaths in New South Wales since 10 July are related to the delta-variant, most likely 12 so far.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 23:21
  #6548 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ruprecht
The Army isn’t getting involved.

It’s not The Day of The Triffids…
A literary/cultural reference for readers of certain age.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 23:21
  #6549 (permalink)  
 
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The 80% fully vaccinated rate is absurd. Have a look at current rates around the world. If Gladys wants to wait to get to 80% fully vaccinated before we can stop restrictions and get back to any form of normality then come back this time next year, or xmas 2022. It is bloody stupid and she needs to backtrack on it immediately. There will always be a proportion of people who will not get the vaccine, the denier type. Then you will have a large number of 18 to 35 year olds especially the 18 to 25 who won’t get it because covid doesn’t affect that age group.

a realistic number is around 65%. Which we can realistically get to around the end of this year. After you get to about that number, the rate plateaus right off. Progress is very slow.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 23:30
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Originally Posted by Foxxster
Then you will have a large number of 18 to 35 year olds especially the 18 to 25 who won’t get it because covid doesn’t affect that age group.
That's a blatant lie
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 23:37
  #6551 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ladloy
That's a blatant lie
is it… oh, so you are one of those pedantic people are you. How clever.

it affects that age group SIGNIFICANTLY LESS than other age groups and pales into insignificance compared to the risky nature of things that age group gets up to. Especially in Australia. Tell us all how many people in the 18 to 25 age group have died or been SERIOUSLY affected in Australia.

https://www.health.gov.au/resources/...-group-and-sex

Go away.

that is also the age group that thinks they are bullet proof…
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 00:01
  #6552 (permalink)  
 
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The total deaths for each year were 143,473, 153,580 & 168,960 - averaging that gives 155,000 people dying each year.
even one death is one too many..we can’t rest until everyone lives forever
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 00:07
  #6553 (permalink)  
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
Please tell us the facts.
How many lives has Delta taken in Australia this year?
Assuming all the deaths in New South Wales since 10 July are related to the delta-variant, most likely 12 so far.
Well there it is, twelve people. How many were close to death from other causes?
You guys need some perspective, how many people have died this year from flu, diabetes, car crashes, suicides, allergies?
This is a massive overreaction by the media and consequently the states.
Pity the casual wage earners with no income and the small businesses forced to close.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 00:12
  #6554 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Foxxster
Then you will have a large number of 18 to 35 year olds especially the 18 to 25 who won’t get it because covid doesn’t affect that age group.
Originally Posted by Ladloy
That's a blatant lie
Actually Ladloy has a point. Long term symptoms of Covid have been shown to persist in mild cases that didn’t require hospitalisation in younger people. This peer reviewed study from Norway explains:

We found that 52% (32/61) of home-isolated young adults, aged 16–30 years, had symptoms at 6 months, including loss of taste and/or smell (28%, 17/61), fatigue (21%, 13/61), dyspnea (13%, 8/61), impaired concentration (13%, 8/61) and memory problems (11%, 7/61).

Not as bad as ventilation or death but still significant, and certainly enough to say Covid does affect the younger age group.


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Old 28th Jul 2021, 00:13
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Originally Posted by Foxxster
is it… oh, so you are one of those pedantic people are you. How clever.

it affects that age group SIGNIFICANTLY LESS than other age groups and pales into insignificance compared to the risky nature of things that age group gets up to. Especially in Australia. Tell us all how many people in the 18 to 25 age group have died or been SERIOUSLY affected in Australia.

https://www.health.gov.au/resources/...-group-and-sex

Go away.

that is also the age group that thinks they are bullet proof…
Most of the workforce affected by lockdowns are in that age bracket as they take up most of the casualised positions in Australia. They have made a huge sacrifice in income to save the older generations. They will be wanting the vaccine to reduce the risk of another lockdown.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 00:15
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Originally Posted by dr dre
Actually Ladloy has a point. Long term symptoms of Covid have been shown to persist in mild cases that didn’t require hospitalisation in younger people. This peer reviewed study from Norway explains:

We found that 52% (32/61) of home-isolated young adults, aged 16–30 years, had symptoms at 6 months, including loss of taste and/or smell (28%, 17/61), fatigue (21%, 13/61), dyspnea (13%, 8/61), impaired concentration (13%, 8/61) and memory problems (11%, 7/61).

Not as bad as ventilation or death but still significant, and certainly enough to say Covid does affect the younger age group.

oooh, a whole 61 people.. ooooh

get a grip. And try and work out what I was getting at instead of being a pathetic pedantic twit like Ladloy.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 00:19
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
Well there it is, twelve people. How many were close to death from other causes?
You guys need some perspective, how many people have died this year from flu, diabetes, car crashes, suicides, allergies?


It’s only low because a strict approach from governments has kept it low.

If it wasn’t contained then you’d get a situation like the rest of the world over the last 18 months.

How do we know the pandemic would’ve caused more deaths per usual and not just ones that would’ve happened due heart disease, diabetes, the flu etc?

Excess Mortality.

It was far greater than the previous 5 year norm in basically every other nation, and nothing to suggest Australia wouldn’t have been similarly affected.

Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19)

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Old 28th Jul 2021, 00:25
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Originally Posted by dr dre

It’s only low because a strict approach from governments has kept it low.

If it wasn’t contained then you’d get a situation like the rest of the world over the last 18 months.

How do we know the pandemic would’ve caused more deaths per usual and not just ones that would’ve happened due heart disease, diabetes, the flu etc?

Excess Mortality.

It was far greater than the previous 5 year norm in basically every other nation, and nothing to suggest Australia wouldn’t have been similarly affected.

Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19)
Well, if nothing else the 2020 figures will raise the average, making it easier to get 2021 below average.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 00:29
  #6559 (permalink)  
 
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You guys need some perspective, how many people have died this year from flu, diabetes, car crashes, suicides, allergies?
Last years flu season was predicted to hit more than 300,000 cases. Due to Covid restrictions having the same effect on Flu there was only 20,000 cases with 36 confirmed deaths. Compare that to 800 odd deaths from Covid in the same period.

Diabetes is not a virus, its either hereditary or lifestyle based.

Car Crashes are not a virus and have various causes, most of which are preventable. Like those that deny Covid there are stupid drivers that ignore the rules and safety advice and die needlessly.

Suicides are stable, that is the same rate as they were before Covid, and while related to mental health there's a multitude of other complicated circumstance that lead to this.

Allergies, well who knows, I would say the precautions for Covid worked like the Flu and reduced the amount of severe allergic reactions, again this is managed by the individual and regulation of food handling and warning labels. Allergies is probably one of the few that could be categories as something that another person could inflict on you unknowingly, but it will not spread like wildfire to everyone around you, so again not comparable.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 00:51
  #6560 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ladloy
Would love some examples because this argument doesn't hold water.
Ladloy, look up any site that has stats on deaths for the world. It’s all available, for free. Take note of the category of “influenza / pneumonia / respiratory illnesses” and you’ll be surprised at how many die every day. Now compare that to the deaths (globally) due to COVID.

4 million or so dead in 16 odd months is a large number until it’s compared to the vast numbers dying every day “without COVID”.
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