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Old 18th Jul 2021, 10:48
  #6081 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Sydney
Posts: 284
Originally Posted by Aussie Bob View Post
Not me, this was one Scott Morrison in March last year. Nothing has changed except he was being pessimistic. About 1 in 10 might get something a bit more severe than the flu and about 1 in 500 might end up in hospital. The vast majority will not even get it. Don't take my word for it, just watch the stats that the ABC is giving us. Over 1000 "cases" in NSW so far, the majority of which had to have the test just to find out they are in fact "a case". After a positive test they are sent home to isolate. Oh, and we have had a death, a lady in her '90s. There is an enormous difference between a "case" and someone sick with covid.

For this we are expected to take a vaccine that is not a vaccine but a new MRA, never tried before experiment that will only protect us from others that have had the same "vaccine".

Let's open up all the borders and end the lockdowns now please.
As of right now 1 in 17 cases are in hospital and that's early figures as there's a lag in hospitalitions. 18 in ICU, 7 on ventilators (flip a coin on survival if you get to the ventilator). As for saying people are taking the test without expecting a positive result, I'm sure by week two it's not just a 'case'. The wprst part of the disease is in the second or third week, while most getting tested are early into their dirst week.

Long term, persistent symptoms known as Long covid are found in 1 in 5 cases. Serious heart issues and lung issues are to be expected by long covid. Give me the jab and I'll be happy to end lockdowns and open borders.
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 12:07
  #6082 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Oz
Posts: 1,010
According to the Kairouz Probability Theorem we have a total of 109 cases tomorrow
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 13:05
  #6083 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: VIC - The Covid State
Posts: 99
Originally Posted by PoppaJo View Post
According to the Kairouz Probability Theorem we have a total of 109 cases tomorrow
In that case, Gladys, don't bother with tomorrow's presser, just use today's and dubb 105 to 109.
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 19:17
  #6084 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: BBN
Posts: 557
With 109 cases consistently being around the 100 for a week now Melbourne on a knifes edge. This will only take 60 days to get under control and be allowed to travel again. Two biggest city’s out now Aiviation back to a stand still almost.
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 22:25
  #6085 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NQLD
Age: 35
Posts: 251
Overnight success, 30 years in the making….

Originally Posted by Aussie Bob View Post
For this we are expected to take a vaccine that is not a vaccine but a new MRA, never tried before experiment that will only protect us from others that have had the same "vaccine".
The mRNA “vaccines” are not new… They also been tried before…

“While an mRNA vaccine has never been on the market anywhere in the world, mRNA vaccines have been tested in humans before, for at least four infectious diseases: rabies, influenza, cytomegalovirus, and Zika.”

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/89998

The reason none of these went into full production was a lack of urgency or money. There’s already a “normal” vaccine for rabies and influenza, Zika virus basically ceased to be a threat.

The MASSIVE difference with the mRNA Coronavirus vaccines is the huge amount of money throw at them and the orders placed by the US Government to ensure they got developed as fast as science would allow.

The idea for mRNA vaccines was thought up in the early 1990’s. There has been 30 years of research and development to get to the point of allowing the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to be created so fast.

Moderna (the company) was set up in 2010 with the aim of bringing mRNA drugs to market. They had already started to pivot towards vaccines prior to 2019.

BioNTech was also set up to take advantage of the development of mRNA in medicine.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/10/...-vaccine-race/

While the COVID vaccines may be the first approved mRNA vaccines, the technology behind them has been under development for decades. Just shows what a lot of money and attention can do…
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 22:25
  #6086 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: melbourne
Posts: 568
Originally Posted by SHVC View Post
With 109 cases consistently being around the 100 for a week now Melbourne on a knifes edge. This will only take 60 days to get under control and be allowed to travel again. Two biggest city’s out now Aiviation back to a stand still almost.
Like somebody previously posted,nobody really knows what the truth is so we have to go with opinions & some we agree with & some we dont so heres mine.
It is true that vic is on a knife edge but it seems like the community transmission is well under control whereas in nsw at least 25% of the daily cases have been out doing their own thing(take a look at bondi yesterday) which of course relates to the willingness of people to listen to advice.
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 22:36
  #6087 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Somewhere on the Australian Coast
Posts: 1,011
Originally Posted by blubak View Post
Like somebody previously posted,nobody really knows what the truth is so we have to go with opinions & some we agree with & some we dont so heres mine.
It is true that vic is on a knife edge but it seems like the community transmission is well under control whereas in nsw at least 25% of the daily cases have been out doing their own thing(take a look at bondi yesterday) which of course relates to the willingness of people to listen to advice.
Vic seems to be largely on top of this. I think we can expect a few days extension perhaps but it looks pretty good to be done within two weeks.

NSW is a mess and will be for weeks at the very least, if not months. Gladys is rattled. Communication is poor. Messaging is getting lost.

The message for governments is now stark and very clear - any community transmission, lock down immediately to minimise both the health and economic impacts, at least until an appropriate percentage of the population is vaccinated, whatever that may be.
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 22:37
  #6088 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: melbourne
Posts: 568
Originally Posted by PoppaJo View Post
According to the Kairouz Probability Theorem we have a total of 109 cases tomorrow
13 cases in vic today,all linked to current outbreak.
Almost 55000 tests yesterday so definitely heading the right way.
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 22:54
  #6089 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: BBN
Posts: 557
NSW is out for at least 12 weeks. Vic will be back in two. My tik tok prediction.
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 22:55
  #6090 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Doomadgee
Posts: 126
The message for governments is now stark and very clear - any community transmission, lock down immediately to minimise both the health and economic impacts, at least until an appropriate percentage of the population is vaccinated, whatever that may be.
Whoa, hang on there. That solution is DEFINITELY NOT the way to go. The fear mongering is unbelievable. Mildura has 1 case, and you think Locking down Portland and every other regional town is acceptable. LOCKDOWNS are not the answer for infection cases that are not remotely close to overwhelming the health system. What is necessary is contact tracing and subsequent close contact isolation. Wearing of masks, and washing of hands. (interesting how the hand washing messages of the past have vanished), and getting vaccinated. Lockdowns are causing more deaths from suicide in Australia as a result of economic hardships resulting from business collapses and stand downs than Octogenarians who have passed.

A disturbing trend of media sensationalism I noticed yesterday is the reporting in the vein of "Disturbing exposure sites increases to 280". WTF! who care about the number of exposure sites. The number of deaths is important, and the number of ICU admissions. Seriously - reporting the death of 92 year old from covid, is hardly responsible. Get some perspective Australians.
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 23:03
  #6091 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Somewhere on the Australian Coast
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Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc View Post
Whoa, hang on there. That solution is DEFINITELY NOT the way to go. The fear mongering is unbelievable. Mildura has 1 case, and you think Locking down Portland and every other regional town is acceptable. LOCKDOWNS are not the answer for infection cases that are not remotely close to overwhelming the health system. What is necessary is contact tracing and subsequent close contact isolation. Wearing of masks, and washing of hands. (interesting how the hand washing messages of the past have vanished), and getting vaccinated. Lockdowns are causing more deaths from suicide in Australia as a result of economic hardships resulting from business collapses and stand downs than Octogenarians who have passed.

A disturbing trend of media sensationalism I noticed yesterday is the reporting in the vein of "Disturbing exposure sites increases to 280". WTF! who care about the number of exposure sites. The number of deaths is important, and the number of ICU admissions. Seriously - reporting the death of 92 year old from covid, is hardly responsible. Get some perspective Australians.
It's pretty clear that solution IS the way to go, and is the model all state governments will be following until we reach the mythical unicorn of herd immunity by vaccination. Doesn't matter what I think, or what you think, the evidence is clear. Vic should be on top of their outbreak inside two weeks while NSW will be 6 weeks to the end of the current planned lockdown, but no-one of any expertise expects it to end there. Contact tracing cannot withstand the the transmissability of current variants. I wish it were otherwise, but if wishes were horses....
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 23:31
  #6092 (permalink)  
601
 
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Location: Brisbane, Qld, Australia
Age: 75
Posts: 1,314
Contact tracing cannot withstand the the transmissability of current variants.
It would if people followed the health directions.

I attended an outdoor event yesterday that required a Check In. While I was in a position to observe the Q-Code, I saw two people check - about 10% of all who passed the sign during that period.

During the main event, a family of 5 adults and one child sat about 3 metres away from us. None of the adults were wearing masks.

Instead of the media highlighting this B$ about how people are frightened of police, the media should be reinforcing the requirements of the health directions.
We seem to get a lot of reporting on the excuses of why people cannot get a jab. Where is their social responsibility?

I wonder if they have the same fear about paramedics and ventilators.
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 23:35
  #6093 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Downunder
Posts: 405
Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc View Post
The fear mongering is unbelievable....Lockdowns are causing more deaths from suicide in Australia as a result of economic hardships resulting from business collapses and stand downs....
Lest you be accused of your own bit of fear mongering, do you have any evidence to back up your claim of a substantial increase in suicides in Australia as a result of lockdown?
I'm genuinely interested as the overseas studies I've seen do not support.
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Old 18th Jul 2021, 23:44
  #6094 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Coal Face
Posts: 815
Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc View Post
A disturbing trend of media sensationalism I noticed yesterday is the reporting in the vein of "Disturbing exposure sites increases to 280". WTF! who care about the number of exposure sites. The number of deaths is important, and the number of ICU admissions. Seriously - reporting the death of 92 year old from covid, is hardly responsible. Get some perspective Australians.
Yes the obsession with deaths and cases is distracting. In the meantime noone has mentioned the 415 deaths in the first three months of the year due to influenza and pneumonia. At some point COVID deaths will become just another paragraph in this list.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/he...latest-release
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Old 19th Jul 2021, 00:07
  #6095 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Balikpapan, INDONESIA
Age: 69
Posts: 787
Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer View Post
................... At some point COVID deaths will become just another paragraph in this list.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/he...latest-release
That is quite likely but your post conceals a common non sequitur; that because we have become inured to a certain death rate from other causes then if we just open up right now then COVID will be just like the flu.
This is a very common argument from those who just want to open up. Those people should refer back to the Victorian outbreak of 2020 or the current one in NSW.

The deaths and disability being caused now is despite the control measures being taken.
And if you're concerned about the mental anguish caused from being locked down and out of work think what losing your wife and eldest daughter might do to you.


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Old 19th Jul 2021, 00:11
  #6096 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Balikpapan, INDONESIA
Age: 69
Posts: 787
Originally Posted by Max Tow View Post
Lest you be accused of your own bit of fear mongering, do you have any evidence to back up your claim of a substantial increase in suicides in Australia as a result of lockdown?
I'm genuinely interested as the overseas studies I've seen do not support.
Or, on another tack, have a look at the 20% increase in gun violence deaths in the US over the 12 month period of Trump's "let it run" policy.
Only a few thousand additional lives lost. Hardly worth counting. Puny by comparison to the deaths from Covid in the Trumpdom.
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Old 19th Jul 2021, 00:51
  #6097 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 573
Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc View Post
Lockdowns are causing more deaths from suicide in Australia as a result of economic hardships resulting from business collapses and stand downs than Octogenarians who have passed.
That contention is often repeated but there is little hard data to support it and some hard data that actually contradicts it.

Three states - Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria - have released their 2020 suspected deaths by suicide data for 2020. As the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare notes,

In all cases there is no evidence to date of any increase relative to previous years.
Suspected deaths by suicide in Victoria, the lockdown state of 2020, were essentially unchanged from the previous two years. In fact, the 699 suspected deaths by suicide for 2020 was slightly lower than in 2019 (718) and similar to 2018 (700). Moreover, if you look at suicides by month throughout the lengthy second 2020 lockdown (June - October), they average below the annual average for 2020.

New South Wales recorded a nearly 5 percent year-on-year drop in suspected deaths by suicide in 2020, with 898, as opposed to 944 in 2019.

The Queensland data is mixed. Noting that they have only reported for the first seven months of 2020 (to 31 July), the headline data shows a slight increase in suspected deaths by suicide for that period, 454, when compared to the 445 for the same period in 2019. Queensland Police Service reports for the same period indicate that COVID-19 may have contributed towards 28 suspected suicides, through either or a combination of - affecting mood, coping, stress and anxiety; employment; social isolation; changes in access to healthcare support; relationship breakdown; and finances. Of note in that QPS reporting, "finances" was mentioned in only one case (relatedly "employment" was mentioned in 11 cases, which may have included the single "finances" case).

Any data-based discussion on suicide numbers and rates is hampered in the first instance by the fact that there is no national register. The states, except for South Australia, manage their own registers - South Australia doesn't have one at all. Secondly, there's the lag in reporting. Presently there is no good data for this year.

We won't see the national data for 2020 until around October this year but based on the numbers from the eastern states it is very likely that 2020 will have been only the sixth year since 2006 when suicides are down year-on-year against the prior year.
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Old 19th Jul 2021, 01:05
  #6098 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 573
Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer View Post
Yes the obsession with deaths and cases is distracting. In the meantime noone has mentioned the 415 deaths in the first three months of the year due to influenza and pneumonia. At some point COVID deaths will become just another paragraph in this list.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/he...latest-release
Possibly no one has mentioned it because they show a marked improvement on previous years.

As always, read the details (per your link).

Influenza
  • There has not been a death certified due to influenza since late July 2020.
Pneumonia
  • The number of deaths due to pneumonia has been largely below average since late April 2020.
  • Between January and March 2021, deaths due to pneumonia were 84 (16.8%) below the 2015-19 average and 148 deaths (26.3%) below the same point in 2020.
So, zero in the Influenza deaths column and 148 fewer deaths from Pneumonia column when compared to the previous year. Form your own views as to what might be contributing to those outcomes.
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Old 19th Jul 2021, 01:06
  #6099 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Oz
Posts: 1,010
The TikTok leaker has apparently been busted. Still no reason why Health couldn’t release the stats at say 9am, rather than dragging it out 15 hours.
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Old 19th Jul 2021, 01:10
  #6100 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 626
Originally Posted by WingNut60 View Post
The deaths and disability being caused now is despite the control measures being taken.
I will agree with you right up until the day everyone who is eligible for the vaccine has been offered one.
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