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Old 10th Jul 2021, 00:22
  #5741 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
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Originally Posted by Foxxster View Post
Here is a Harvard professors view.

https://youtu.be/8OLoqg22M7M
Worth watching but probably needs to be tempered by noting that Professor Kulldorff is a co-author of the Great Barrington Declaration, essentially a push for natural herd immunity through community spread with Focussed Protection for the vulnerable. Kulldorff, a Swede, backed Sweden's broadly Focussed Protection approach to managing COVID-19 and seems to remain wedded to that style of management.

Kulldorff routinely gives out-and-out nonsense oxygen by endorsing or spreading it on social media. His latest foray into the twilight zone is circulating lockdownsceptics.org's hysteria about New Zealand hospitals being 'flooded' with children suffering respiratory illness because lockdowns prevented them from acquiring general immunities through socialising.

The facts of the matter are that there has been an outbreak of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) centred on Wellington, New Zealand. RSV is typically very common in the cooler/colder months and generally affects infants up to two years of age (older children and adults can be affected but most just register it as a cold). RSV infections in New Zealand had been at record lows coming into this outbreak, 98 percent below normal levels. There had been a similar near absence of RSV in Australia over the last 18 months which ended with a spike in March-April this year. Notably in Australia the RSV surges started in New South Wales and Western Australia; two states that had not used lockdowns (as opposed to lockouts) anywhere near as widely as other states during the period prior to the March-April 2021 RSV outbreaks.

The Wellington outbreak is thought to be linked to the opening of travel under the Trans-Tasman Bubble.

Last edited by MickG0105; 10th Jul 2021 at 01:29. Reason: Clarified timeframe for WA lockdowns
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 00:40
  #5742 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Sydney
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Originally Posted by SHVC View Post
If she followed the approach of other states she would lock everyone up 5 days no movement just stop living. She is still keeping a balance. All thatís affected is a few coffee shops that will bounce back and tourism/aviation which will bounce back. Rest of the world has moved on so should we.
yeah lots of balance.....
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 00:42
  #5743 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
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Originally Posted by MickG0105 View Post
..................... Notably in Australia the RSV surges started in New South Wales and Western Australia; two states that had not used lock-downs (as opposed to lockouts) anywhere near as widely as other states..........
Not sure how you work that one out Mick.
WA has had five lock-downs (I think), four of them being short, sharp lock-downs.

If people are restricted to their homes except where they cannot work from home or allowed out for shopping for essentials, restricted exercise, etc, etc. then I, and Mark, call it a lock-down.
What makes you think that that is not a lock-down? What criteria has not been met?

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Old 10th Jul 2021, 00:47
  #5744 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: The World
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Originally Posted by Foxxster View Post
Here is a Harvard professors view.
His views are an outlier. Heís still pushing the Swedish Herd Immunity idea that the Swedes themselves admitted was a failure. His hasnít presented numbers or studies on Delta, just some dismissive sentences, there have been studies printed with data showing Delta leads to an 85% rise in hospitalisations, and somewhat more infectious than Alpha. But these are amongst the unvaccinated, and the aforementioned professor also has some anti-vaxxer views. He called for vaccinations to be stopped for young people but then thought it find for them to contract the virus naturally.

Plus Sky News Outsiders? Of all the nutjob Sky News After Dark presenters those guys could qualify as the most nutty, they are still pushing stolen US election conspiracy theories months after the event. Just red meat to attract lunatics.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 00:53
  #5745 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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Originally Posted by SHVC View Post
If she followed the approach of other states she would lock everyone up 5 days no movement just stop living. She is still keeping a balance. All thatís affected is a few coffee shops that will bounce back and tourism/aviation which will bounce back. Rest of the world has moved on so should we.
The lockdown is costing $2 billion a week. Itís predicted to extend weeks, even months beyond the start. The other states that went into a short lockdown immediately lasted 4/5 days. And now theyíre out of it.

Itís more than just a ďfew coffee shopsĒ affected.....

EDIT: Sorry $1 billion a week. Itís still a massive hit on the economy


Last edited by dr dre; 10th Jul 2021 at 01:08.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 01:00
  #5746 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
The lockdown is costing $2 billion a week. It’s predicted to extend weeks, even months beyond the start. The other states that went into a short lockdown immediately lasted 4/5 days. And now they’re out of it.

It’s more than just a “few coffee shops” affected.....
And McGowan has caught never-ending derision from the east, notably Beryl & associates, for "locking up the whole state over just one or two cases" when he should have been following Beryl's Diamond Standard.
Those diamonds are starting to look like glass.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 01:24
  #5747 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
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Originally Posted by WingNut60 View Post
Not sure how you work that one out Mick.
WA has had five lock-downs (I think), four of them being short, sharp lock-downs.

If people are restricted to their homes except where they cannot work from home or allowed out for shopping for essentials, restricted exercise, etc, etc. then I, and Mark, call it a lock-down.
What makes you think that that is not a lock-down? What criteria has not been met?
Yes, you're right, Western Australia has had a number of short lockdowns.

What I should have said is that most of them - the ones in April, May and June 2021 - occurred subsequent to the March-April respiratory syncytial virus outbreak and therefore could not have been causal or contributory. I've tweaked that in the original post now.

Last edited by MickG0105; 10th Jul 2021 at 01:30. Reason: Tidy up
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 02:08
  #5748 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 52
No one in NSW hospitals with covid 19 has been fully vaccinated.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 03:00
  #5749 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Sydney
Posts: 284
And here we are again. 50 new cases, 20 odd in the community. 14k people in iso. 16 in ICU, including a teenager. Hospitalisation rate just under 2%
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 03:09
  #5750 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Perth
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I wouldnt be surprised if VIC / QLD close the entire border soon.

I cannot fathom why GB wont close non essential businesses.....its a no brainer....
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 04:19
  #5751 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
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Originally Posted by Torukmacto View Post
No one in NSW hospitals with covid 19 has been fully vaccinated.
only about 9% of the population fully vaccinated.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 04:39
  #5752 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
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The RSV virus is most certainly not minor in NZ..our health system is fairly parlous at the best of times which was the reason for our strict lockdowns in the first place. There is dozens of infant or preschoolers in hospital and over a thousand reported cases nationwide. Itís almost certainly as a result of reduced immunity levels because of Covid mitigation strategies. Thereís always a price to be paid for thumbing your nose at the Gods of the Copybook Headings

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/dozens...N6PHPIW6SNQ7Q/
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 04:45
  #5753 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Originally Posted by Ladloy View Post
Hospitalisation rate just under 2%
Horses&^t. Hospitalisation rate is closer to 10% at the moment. 47 hospitalised out of about 500 active cases. 16 in ICU, five ventilated.

Recovery rate is about 50% post ventilation. People will die in the coming days. It's inevitable with these numbers. The only positive is that it might refocus attention on just how dangerous COVID is, particularly when compared with the very low risk associated with vaccination.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 04:56
  #5754 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Sydney
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Originally Posted by DirectAnywhere View Post
Horses&^t. Hospitalisation rate is closer to 10% at the moment. 47 hospitalised out of about 500 active cases. 16 in ICU, five ventilated.

Recovery rate is about 50% post ventilation. People will die in the coming days. It's inevitable with these numbers. The only positive is that it might refocus attention on just how dangerous COVID is, particularly when compared with the very low risk associated with vaccination.
ah yep sorry. Under 2% in ICU, as it's not the total hospitalisation. My mistake.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 05:11
  #5755 (permalink)  
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Victoria has just issued a Ď Come Home Now Ď message to people in NSW. It seems they are about to lock out NSW.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 05:14
  #5756 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Somewhere on the Australian Coast
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Originally Posted by Ladloy View Post
ah yep sorry. Under 2% in ICU, as it's not the total hospitalisation. My mistake.
Fair call. Apologies for the terse reply. Been arguing with idiots for too long. Sorry.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 06:22
  #5757 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: I prefer to remain north of a direct line BNE-ADL
Age: 46
Posts: 1,198
With the hospital admissions and ICU numbers and the current number of cases still in the community, I agree with DirectAnywhere,
deaths will soon start, and with the 2 to three week lag with infection to death cases, and still cases increasing now buckle up for weeks of deaths as a minimum.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 06:43
  #5758 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Prison Island (WA)
Posts: 1,448
I canít believe the rest of the country (including the State Premiers and media outlets) are sitting back and saying NSW should have done this or that sooner. Most States have gotten their response wrong at some point during the pandemic, with differing outcomes. Quarantine leaks due to poor hotel choices, unnecessary lockdowns over single cases, poor or non-existant contact tracing etc etc.

As a country we have done the same thing and looked at other countries around the globe and think we know best. There is no playbook for this, and geography and demographics play a big part in how this virus impacts a nation (or a state).

Comparing WA to NSW and McGowan pointing fingers at Gladys is not really helpful. The arrogance of the guy never ceases to amaze me. Anyone can lock down a sparsely populated city like Perth with minimal high density living and have quick results. Sydney is a different beast altogether!
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 07:48
  #5759 (permalink)  
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Why are places like IKEA still open? You canít eat flat packs.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 07:58
  #5760 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Somewhere on the Australian Coast
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Originally Posted by SOPS View Post
Why are places like IKEA still open? You canít eat flat packs.
Agreed. It's too late for a short, sharp lockdown now. They'll be left with a long, sharp lockdown as the only option. They tried to keep non-essential "essential" retail open and it's screwed them.

The list of locations visited by an infectious person on Thursday at Broadway reads like a choose-your-own adventure shopping expedition - Kmart, JB Hi Fi, Coles, ALDI, Harvey Norman and Liquorland.
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