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Old 3rd May 2021, 01:19
  #4601 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: Australia
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Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist View Post
This has been the problem all along - people just see numbers with no context and allow themselves to be suckered in by fear mongering.

80,000 lives lost is sad for sure, but context is everything. I acknowledge CV has killed people in large numbers, I just donít buy the mass fear campaign.
A lot of this has to do with an individualís propensity to defer to experts. Either you agree with the overwhelming professional consensus on an issue or you look for the few dissenters.

In the case of Covid, itís a bit clearer because we have examples of countries who have gone against the professional advice (Sweden, US and more recently India) and those who have adopted the most conservative approaches (Australia and NZ). I know where I would prefer to be.

Australia has fared very well through this crisis. We are coming out with a strong economy, a healthy population and a health care system which retains capacity. Domestic life is almost entirely unaffected. No wonder most people are happy with the federal and state responses to Covid.
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Old 3rd May 2021, 03:29
  #4602 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
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Originally Posted by Tucknroll View Post
A lot of this has to do with an individual’s propensity to defer to experts. Either you agree with the overwhelming professional consensus on an issue or you look for the few dissenters.

In the case of Covid, it’s a bit clearer because we have examples of countries who have gone against the professional advice (Sweden, US and more recently India) and those who have adopted the most conservative approaches (Australia and NZ). I know where I would prefer to be.

Australia has fared very well through this crisis. We are coming out with a strong economy, a healthy population and a health care system which retains capacity. Domestic life is almost entirely unaffected. No wonder most people are happy with the federal and state responses to Covid.
Incorrect.
New Zealand are far less conservative than Australia when it comes to crew quarantine. Yes I’ll raise this again. After all this is a pilot forum so get over it. I’ll continue to bang on about significant differences in how quarantine procedures apply between the two countries.
Australia. 14 days no exceptions outside the Tasman bubble with a negative pcr test.
New Zealand no quarantine required except if flown in from the USA (2 days and negative pcr) Asia no quarantine required.

All Australian pilots should be outraged at the disparity. Whilst overseas both countries aircrew practice the same protocols so where is the science to back up the difference? There is none. Its heavy handed bureaucratic crap. All Aussie international pilots ffs write to your local state and federal members and make some noise.
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Old 3rd May 2021, 03:41
  #4603 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: Australia
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Originally Posted by Troo believer View Post
Incorrect.
New Zealand are far less conservative than Australia when it comes to crew quarantine. Yes Iíll raise this again. After all this is a pilot forum so get over it. Iíll continue to bang on about significant differences in how quarantine procedures apply between the two countries.
Australia. 14 days no exceptions outside the Tasman bubble with a negative pcr test.
New Zealand no quarantine required except if flown in from the USA (2 days and negative pcr) Asia no quarantine required.

All Australian pilots should be outraged at the disparity. Whilst overseas both countries aircrew practice the same protocols so where is the science to back up the difference? There is none. Its heavy handed bureaucratic crap. All Aussie international pilots ffs write to your local state and federal members and make some noise.
Iím not incorrect, youíre just not understanding what Iím saying. Iím talking about the treatment of Covid in the population as a whole. Iím not talking about crew quarantine. The affect of crew quarantine on borders is minimal. Itís an inconvenience to crew, thatís all. No one else cares.
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Old 3rd May 2021, 03:59
  #4604 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
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An inconvenience. What a stupid ignorant comment. Try 3-4 months of it. Air New Zealand none.
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Old 3rd May 2021, 04:29
  #4605 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
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Originally Posted by Troo believer View Post
An inconvenience. What a stupid ignorant comment. Try 3-4 months of it. Air New Zealand none.
stupid is thinking spending PAID time in quarantine is something to whine about. Donít like it? Donít do it. Plenty of work available cleaning toilets with me on minimum wage champ.
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Old 3rd May 2021, 06:02
  #4606 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
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Originally Posted by Tucknroll View Post
stupid is thinking spending PAID time in quarantine is something to whine about. Donít like it? Donít do it. Plenty of work available cleaning toilets with me on minimum wage champ.
Most of us have a story to tell on a minimum wage unfortunately. Sorry for your plight. It mustnít be easy. The sooner we get out of this the better. One step is to get the quarantine rules changed. Iím merely pointing out the differences between the two countries participating in the bubble. Why quarantine when itís unnecessary and not based on science. New Zealand donít do it. Why should we when most are fully vaccinated. Call or email your local member and ask why. Do you want 14 or 0-2. Itís that simple.
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Old 3rd May 2021, 10:17
  #4607 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus View Post
But you do agree that so far only a small fraction of the population has been infected? And that the death rate is approximately 2%, and there are long term effects for perhaps 30% of the others? Extrapolate that out to a 100% infection incidence, who the hell is going to provide acute care for that many people, bury that many people and provide chronic care for that many people?

There was always going to be a race between the virus and the vaccine, and those countries that understood that have suffered fewer deaths and costs.
Therein lies the problem - which virus has ever infected 100%? None of them have.
COVID is dangerous to the elderly and to those with underlying conditions. Itís dangerous and should be contained.
To this day, CV kills approximately 2% of those that catch it. Even in the US where it ran rampant, 10% of the population caught it. Brazil, India, UK, Italy - all disasters, and yet all have similar stats - roughly 10% infection, roughly 1-2% of that 10% die. Thatís approximately a 0.02 fatality rate for a population. Now look at the rates for every other fatal disease that we have. COVID is bad for sure - just not hysterically so.

We did much better in Australia / NZ. No argument there. Letís see how we fare post CV - I reckon weíve snookered ourselves a little. Time will tell how well we handle the ďexit strategyĒ.
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Old 3rd May 2021, 11:16
  #4608 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Weltschmerz-By-The-Sea, Queensland, Australia
Posts: 995
You are right that 100% of populations donít get infected since, among other things, viruses tend to die out after herd immunity is reached. But the current estimates about the current variations run into the low 80ís. Still lots of people, but thatís moot mostly because vaccines were developed in record time and are slowly becoming more widely available.

No, covid isnít bad compared to SARS or other diseases, but those others you never get in pandemic numbers.

Regarding the exit strategy...I worry about it too since no one seems to be discussing what that is going to look like. Collectively we have embraced eradication, but since eternal isolation isnít a practical path the government needs to start defining milestones and stages of reopening to the larger world. We certainly cannot let anti vaxxers inform policy on acceptable risk, one way or the other.
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Old 3rd May 2021, 12:34
  #4609 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
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but those others you never get in pandemic numbers.
Is it even a pandemic in Australia and NZ?

Only 246 cases in Australia. 25 cases in NZ
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Old 3rd May 2021, 20:52
  #4610 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
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Originally Posted by Troo believer View Post
Most of us have a story to tell on a minimum wage unfortunately. Sorry for your plight. It mustn’t be easy. The sooner we get out of this the better. One step is to get the quarantine rules changed. I’m merely pointing out the differences between the two countries participating in the bubble. Why quarantine when it’s unnecessary and not based on science. New Zealand don’t do it. Why should we when most are fully vaccinated. Call or email your local member and ask why. Do you want 14 or 0-2. It’s that simple.
No stand down provisions in Air NZ contract. Air NZ has therefore been operating this whole time because they have no choice (must generate revenue). Not possible with 14 day crew quarantine. Clearly an arrangement between Air NZ and the NZ government (majority shareholder). Obviously it's just a different playing field on the west side of the Tasman. I'd file this under "it is what it is".
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Old 3rd May 2021, 21:56
  #4611 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
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Now two big name Cricket Australia commentators are lashing out at the PM saying he had bloody on his hands. I must say I hope those two are removed from public life. Why do these ppl think cricketers deserve preferential treatment, they put themself in this situation knowing what could happen.

This is another example of why Australian athletes should be band from attending the Olympic Games.
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Old 3rd May 2021, 22:04
  #4612 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: SE QLD
Posts: 302
Originally Posted by Australopithecus View Post
You are right that 100% of populations donít get infected since, among other things, viruses tend to die out after herd immunity is reached. But the current estimates about the current variations run into the low 80ís. Still lots of people, but thatís moot mostly because vaccines were developed in record time and are slowly becoming more widely available.

No, covid isnít bad compared to SARS or other diseases, but those others you never get in pandemic numbers.

Regarding the exit strategy...I worry about it too since no one seems to be discussing what that is going to look like. Collectively we have embraced eradication, but since eternal isolation isnít a practical path the government needs to start defining milestones and stages of reopening to the larger world. We certainly cannot let anti vaxxers inform policy on acceptable risk, one way or the other.

I found this interesting regarding the US. Apologies for the link - hopefully itís viewable!

https://apple.news/ADRGHPLjTQdWCbcDbzJHywg

The title was ďIs the world finally getting sick of Covid-mania?Ē Published in The Australian newspaper May 4.
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Old 3rd May 2021, 22:29
  #4613 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
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Originally Posted by SHVC View Post
Now two big name Cricket Australia commentators are lashing out at the PM saying he had bloody on his hands. I must say I hope those two are removed from public life. Why do these ppl think cricketers deserve preferential treatment, they put themself in this situation knowing what could happen.

This is another example of why Australian athletes should be band from attending the Olympic Games.
Exhibit A.
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Old 3rd May 2021, 22:53
  #4614 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Weltschmerz-By-The-Sea, Queensland, Australia
Posts: 995
Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist View Post
I found this interesting regarding the US. Apologies for the link - hopefully itís viewable!

https://apple.news/ADRGHPLjTQdWCbcDbzJHywg

The title was ďIs the world finally getting sick of Covid-mania?Ē Published in The Australian newspaper May 4.
I canít view it since I donít subscribe to any Murdoch media.

I did see this cartoon today, from the 1930ís. La plus ca change...



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Old 4th May 2021, 00:12
  #4615 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist View Post
I found this interesting regarding the US. Apologies for the link - hopefully itís viewable!

https://apple.news/ADRGHPLjTQdWCbcDbzJHywg

The title was ďIs the world finally getting sick of Covid-mania?Ē Published in The Australian newspaper May 4.
Actually more like ďare US Republicans getting sick of Covid restrictions?Ē And the answer being yes, theyíve been sick of them since this pandemic started, which is why Republican states have had higher Covid tolls than Democratic ones.

As far as Australia goes well there was a Lowy Institute poll recently with some telling stats on what Australians want with borders:

A Lowy Institute poll has shown only two in 10, or 18 per cent of people, feel all Australians should be free to leave the country.

41 per cent agreed with the current policy that requires people to have special exemptions to be allowed to leave the country.

Only a third of Australians aged 18-59 said those vaccinated should be free to leave now


Almost 60 per cent feel the government has done enough to help fellow citizens return home

No Australians felt the US had handled COVID-19 very well, while a whopping 92 per cent said the pandemic was managed very or fairly badly there



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Old 4th May 2021, 01:06
  #4616 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
Actually more like ďare US Republicans getting sick of Covid restrictions?Ē And the answer being yes, theyíve been sick of them since this pandemic started, which is why Republican states have had higher Covid tolls than Democratic ones.

As far as Australia goes well there was a Lowy Institute poll recently with some telling stats on what Australians want with borders:

A Lowy Institute poll has shown only two in 10, or 18 per cent of people, feel all Australians should be free to leave the country.

41 per cent agreed with the current policy that requires people to have special exemptions to be allowed to leave the country.

Only a third of Australians aged 18-59 said those vaccinated should be free to leave now


Almost 60 per cent feel the government has done enough to help fellow citizens return home

No Australians felt the US had handled COVID-19 very well, while a whopping 92 per cent said the pandemic was managed very or fairly badly there
Says a lot about what weíve become. Itís sad how insular and mollycoddled we are.
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Old 4th May 2021, 02:29
  #4617 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
Actually more like ďare US Republicans getting sick of Covid restrictions?Ē And the answer being yes, theyíve been sick of them since this pandemic started, which is why Republican states have had higher Covid tolls than Democratic ones.
Posting more politicized crap like its factual eh Dre?

Interesting "Medical" website that one. After you're done reading about how "people I don't like get Covid more", You can also read about :
Should we criminalize speech we don't like?
Transphobia
Can men get periods?
How to have commitment free sex with as many people as possible

Don't worry though, these are all "fact checked" and "medically reviewed" by the same publisher that wrote them.
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Old 4th May 2021, 04:28
  #4618 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: NT
Posts: 152
ď
The authors of the study write that they adjusted for ďstate population density, rurality, Census region, age, race, ethnicity, poverty, number of physicians, obesity, cardiovascular disease, asthma, smoking, and presidential voting in 2020.Ē

ha ha. Yup no bias there.
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Old 4th May 2021, 12:05
  #4619 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 379
How's Australia and it's elimination policy going to deal with this?


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/h...=pocket-newtab

Reaching ĎHerd Immunityí Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe


Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable ó at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.

Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.
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Old 5th May 2021, 00:09
  #4620 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Sydney
Posts: 175
Originally Posted by Fonz121 View Post
How's Australia and it's elimination policy going to deal with this?


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/h...=pocket-newtab

Reaching ĎHerd Immunityí Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

My understanding was that the elimination policy in Australia was a placeholder until the population was vaccinated enough to have herd immunity. The US will most likely have a much lower total vaccination rate due to the great divide in politics, but who knows, there's enough reluctance here now too.
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