All borders to reopen.
What worries me....
ANY recovery will be hamstrung by the political messaging in Australia.
Back in 2017 Australia had a “worse than average” influenza season. Cases peaked at 9000 a week and hundred and hundreds of people died. Yet no one batted an eyelid. Sure the hospital staff probably noticed, but no one else was affected.
Now imagine....
Fast forward to October 2021. Vaccination has reached 80-90% of the Australian population. Most of the rich, mainly western countries around the world have vaccinated a majority of their citizens.
What now?
Australian politicians have shown ZERO appetite for any cases whatsoever. Flattening the curve was turned into elimination (sorry suppression 🤦♂️). So even with high vaccination rates there will always be some cases. Hopefully it will become like a normal winter with influenza, but the political narrative has created a huge fear of even ONE case!!!!
So given this, I imagine it will take months to change the “fear factor” and for the various premiers to stop the daily press briefings. Only then will the media and public attention move on and be able to ignore an ongoing low level of COVID cases.
But I’m not holding my breath...
Back in 2017 Australia had a “worse than average” influenza season. Cases peaked at 9000 a week and hundred and hundreds of people died. Yet no one batted an eyelid. Sure the hospital staff probably noticed, but no one else was affected.
Now imagine....
Fast forward to October 2021. Vaccination has reached 80-90% of the Australian population. Most of the rich, mainly western countries around the world have vaccinated a majority of their citizens.
What now?
Australian politicians have shown ZERO appetite for any cases whatsoever. Flattening the curve was turned into elimination (sorry suppression 🤦♂️). So even with high vaccination rates there will always be some cases. Hopefully it will become like a normal winter with influenza, but the political narrative has created a huge fear of even ONE case!!!!
So given this, I imagine it will take months to change the “fear factor” and for the various premiers to stop the daily press briefings. Only then will the media and public attention move on and be able to ignore an ongoing low level of COVID cases.
But I’m not holding my breath...
ANY recovery will be hamstrung by the political messaging in Australia.
Back in 2017 Australia had a “worse than average” influenza season. Cases peaked at 9000 a week and hundred and hundreds of people died. Yet no one batted an eyelid. Sure the hospital staff probably noticed, but no one else was affected.
Back in 2017 Australia had a “worse than average” influenza season. Cases peaked at 9000 a week and hundred and hundreds of people died. Yet no one batted an eyelid. Sure the hospital staff probably noticed, but no one else was affected.
Fast forward to October 2021. Vaccination has reached 80-90% of the Australian population. Most of the rich, mainly western countries around the world have vaccinated a majority of their citizens.
What now?
What now?
Australian politicians have shown ZERO appetite for any cases whatsoever.
So given this, I imagine it will take months to change the “fear factor” and for the various premiers to stop the daily press briefings. Only then will the media and public attention move on and be able to ignore an ongoing low level of COVID cases.
The mutant atrain B1.1.17 is apparently 70% more infectious than the original Sars-CoV-2. That's really a huge problem because the way that negates the various control efforts.
The basic R value for the original virus is estimated to be close to 3, but the various masks, distancing, hygiene and isolation efforts reduce that to around 1.2. Even less in Australia with high compliance and the warm weather. The new strain shows, even with all those measures, an R value much higher. I still haven’t seen a number, but one scientist estimated it is R=5, perhaps R=3 AFTER countermeasures.
That means that a vaccine is going to be the only hope in slowing the spread, but more importantly, it means that more people will have to be vaccinated (or recovered) to achieve herd immunity.
The formula for that is 1-1/R, so if the raw R for the mutant is 5, then 80% of the population will have to have some kind of immunity to stop the continued spread.. An 80% vaccination rate is going to take a vigorous education campaign and probably some carrot/stick inducements.
The basic R value for the original virus is estimated to be close to 3, but the various masks, distancing, hygiene and isolation efforts reduce that to around 1.2. Even less in Australia with high compliance and the warm weather. The new strain shows, even with all those measures, an R value much higher. I still haven’t seen a number, but one scientist estimated it is R=5, perhaps R=3 AFTER countermeasures.
That means that a vaccine is going to be the only hope in slowing the spread, but more importantly, it means that more people will have to be vaccinated (or recovered) to achieve herd immunity.
The formula for that is 1-1/R, so if the raw R for the mutant is 5, then 80% of the population will have to have some kind of immunity to stop the continued spread.. An 80% vaccination rate is going to take a vigorous education campaign and probably some carrot/stick inducements.
Queen P has decided that masks have to be worn in greater brisbane,how could you ever expect her to make such a mammoth decision such as this if her pay or hours were reduced,she is a real hero😷
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Just watching the news I wonder if Queen P has made the situation worse?! GB locked down Northern beaches a LGA of SY this didn’t cause people to leave the city in mass like I just watched in BN. She locked down a city and other areas which caused the mass exodus of people to Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and Airports. line ups at super markets all over the city to panic by crap wrap because you need 100 rolls for three days she could have created her own super seeding event.
I hope they have a good contact tracing team, which is yet to be seen. Hopefully by Monday all is well and under control NSW and VIC are in a good place so travel could soon start again within domestic.
I hope they have a good contact tracing team, which is yet to be seen. Hopefully by Monday all is well and under control NSW and VIC are in a good place so travel could soon start again within domestic.
Which vaccine are you talking about anyway. The ones that are effective against current strains or the ones that will need to be modifications of the current ones to combat the inevitable mutated strain of COVID that will be immune to the current vaccines.
And we will go from say 90% of people vaccinated to 0% overnight.
You know, just like you have to get ANNUAL flu shots. Which is probably where we are headed with this.
Except the flu shot is voluntary. The COVID shot will not be. The government probably won’t mandate it but it will be compulsory if you want to.
do any international and probably interstate travel
get a job. Many employers already saying they will require it
go to any sporting events
go to any concerts or theatre
etc etc. Halt. papers please
oh, and I have read that the UK’s recent decision to space out the second shot to 12 weeks instead of the two weeks as was the method tested for all the vaccines has the potential to produce a vaccine resistant strain. Which is just wonderful.
Ragnor.. completely agree. If the virus was out before her announcement, it is now likely spread more and further.
And we will go from say 90% of people vaccinated to 0% overnight.
You know, just like you have to get ANNUAL flu shots. Which is probably where we are headed with this.
Except the flu shot is voluntary. The COVID shot will not be. The government probably won’t mandate it but it will be compulsory if you want to.
do any international and probably interstate travel
get a job. Many employers already saying they will require it
go to any sporting events
go to any concerts or theatre
etc etc. Halt. papers please
oh, and I have read that the UK’s recent decision to space out the second shot to 12 weeks instead of the two weeks as was the method tested for all the vaccines has the potential to produce a vaccine resistant strain. Which is just wonderful.
Ragnor.. completely agree. If the virus was out before her announcement, it is now likely spread more and further.
Last edited by Foxxster; 8th Jan 2021 at 20:39.
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Look beyond the flightdeck and whether you are at MGH and have a good read of this and see what life is like on the other side of the globe... Hospitals at breaking point... civil unrest in the US is only the beginning... US Generals being asked to withhold Nuclear codes from a Rogue President. Sh*t is seriously messed up on a large scale worthy of a Hollywood script.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...eaths/13044376
It would seem there is no happy ground in between “Elimination/Very High Suppression” and “Letting it run its course”. Good luck Brisbane, no one wants to see you follow Melbourne.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...eaths/13044376
It would seem there is no happy ground in between “Elimination/Very High Suppression” and “Letting it run its course”. Good luck Brisbane, no one wants to see you follow Melbourne.
She locked down a city and other areas which caused the mass exodus of people to Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and Airports. line ups at super markets all over the city to panic by crap wrap because you need 100 rolls for three days she could have created her own super seeding event.
It could be argued that the manner of implementation actually dramatically increased the likelihood of the virus spreading; if there was ever a significant danger of it spreading at all.
Last edited by C441; 8th Jan 2021 at 21:57.
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The flu shot is voluntary however to work in certain industry it’s a requirement. The Gov made it clear start of the week the covid vaccine will be voluntary but it will be a requirement to have it if you work on aged care, medical and transport if you want to enter Aus or move about domestically you it will be a requirement also.
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The flu shot is voluntary however to work in certain industry it’s a requirement. The Gov made it clear start of the week the covid vaccine will be voluntary but it will be a requirement to have it if you work on aged care, medical and transport if you want to enter Aus or move about domestically you it will be a requirement also.
Sorry - when you say "the Gov" are you talking about NSW Gov or Vic Gov or NT Gov or WA Gov or.....?
Real longshot - maybe you meant the Fed Gov?
So much management, so little leadership and direction....for Australia.
For future strains well there’s a solution. Everyone gets vaccinated first and that provides a basic immunity against SARS-COV-2. It any strains appear which have vaccine resistance they should spread slower. But then every year like with the flu shot (maybe the two can be combined) you get a Covid shot with any new Covid strains included. Last year’s flu shot included 4 strains as determined to be the ones most needed by scientists.
Except the flu shot is voluntary. The COVID shot will not be. The government probably won’t mandate it but it will be compulsory
It's too late to still be using the "it's no worse than the flu" argument. For comparison USA standard flu deaths per year is 12,000 to 50,000, COVID has taken 365,000 in 9 months. We have vaccines for the flu and vast experience with it.
Well a herd immunity has been reached, the pandemic is subsiding and life can start to return to normal.
Without a vaccine. One case can quickly turn into millions. At one point the UK, USA, Brazil, Italy, Spain all had one case too......
Yeah, the fear factor of exponential spread with an un-immunised populace. Which is why UK hospitals are overflowing and US hospitals are running out of oxygen. It's a horrific situation. Once a vaccine stops the pandemic (not necessarily the virus) then Covid can become like a seasonal flu illness.
Well a herd immunity has been reached, the pandemic is subsiding and life can start to return to normal.
Without a vaccine. One case can quickly turn into millions. At one point the UK, USA, Brazil, Italy, Spain all had one case too......
Yeah, the fear factor of exponential spread with an un-immunised populace. Which is why UK hospitals are overflowing and US hospitals are running out of oxygen. It's a horrific situation. Once a vaccine stops the pandemic (not necessarily the virus) then Covid can become like a seasonal flu illness.
I’m not comparing it to the flu except for the fact once vaccines are widely available it “should” be dealt with the same way (still around but significantly lower cases every winter).
My point is that cases will actually RISE after the vaccine in Australia. Because they’ve done a reasonable job of keeping the country isolated, the case numbers have been very low compared to other countries. So if we open up with a vaccinated population, how long will it take the political spin masters to stop focusing on COVID?
Plus the public tolerance seems to be incredibly low for ANY cases.....
(I’m not here to debate the COVID vs flu argument, this is about the recovery)
Within 20 minutes of Anna's announcement there was a queue 100m long to get into the local Woolies. Inside the store, people waited in queues winding through the aisles for 45 minutes to check-out, as other shoppers squeezed among them. After an hour the queue outside was 300m long in 2 directions, all standing half a metre apart, with maybe one in fifty people wearing masks. This was repeated at most shopping centres with a Coles/Woolies/Aldi around Brisbane.
It could be argued that the manner of implementation actually dramatically increased the likelihood of the virus spreading; if there was ever a significant danger of it spreading at all.
It could be argued that the manner of implementation actually dramatically increased the likelihood of the virus spreading; if there was ever a significant danger of it spreading at all.
Also,the politicians should be advising the supermarkets before they make these announcements & get restrictions imposed before the idiots start turning up for 50+ rolls of toilet paper.
These are the very people that then throw blame at whoever they can for causing chaos in the shops & as you say completely disregarding distancing rules etc.
I hate defending politicians but with so many selfish people in our community,they are dammed if they do & dammed if they dont.
The two new mutations of Covid have been studied and have been found to be as effective on the virus.
For future strains well there’s a solution. Everyone gets vaccinated first and that provides a basic immunity against SARS-COV-2. It any strains appear which have vaccine resistance they should spread slower. But then every year like with the flu shot (maybe the two can be combined) you get a Covid shot with any new Covid strains included. Last year’s flu shot included 4 strains as determined to be the ones most needed by scientists.
Well with the amount of anti-vaxxer nonsense spreading around that would dissuade a lot of people from getting one, so the inducement to get people to take it will be requirements if you want to travel, have a job, attend events, have your kids attend school etc. We already have “no jab no play” and that works fine, I fully support “no jab no job” (except for the immunocompromised) as well.
For future strains well there’s a solution. Everyone gets vaccinated first and that provides a basic immunity against SARS-COV-2. It any strains appear which have vaccine resistance they should spread slower. But then every year like with the flu shot (maybe the two can be combined) you get a Covid shot with any new Covid strains included. Last year’s flu shot included 4 strains as determined to be the ones most needed by scientists.
Well with the amount of anti-vaxxer nonsense spreading around that would dissuade a lot of people from getting one, so the inducement to get people to take it will be requirements if you want to travel, have a job, attend events, have your kids attend school etc. We already have “no jab no play” and that works fine, I fully support “no jab no job” (except for the immunocompromised) as well.
Precisely. This will involve ongoing vaccinations. However and this is the important point. We do not shut down the economy and state and international borders for the flu. So if / when a mutated strain appears that is resistant to current vaccines then what happens...... oh . Same as happens now ?????? Shut everything until a new, modified vaccine is produced then everyone is vaccinated. How long does that take again.
not anti vaccine. Just making the point that life will not be anywhere near normal for most people unless they are vaccinated. The government doesn’t have to play the bad guy and make it compulsory. Companies and other countries will do that for them. And while the flu vaccine is compulsory for a very few people working in certain industries, I don’t need to show my flu shot passport to travel internationally or go to a concert or a play or work in an office. You can argue for or against elsewhere.
Ticketmaster is working on a plan to verify the vaccination status of concertgoers once a coronavirus vaccine is available. Hoping to recover from the decimating effect the coronavirus pandemic had on the entertainment business and venues, Ticketmaster told Billboard it has been working on a framework to verify vaccination status and COVID-19 results through phones. Billboard notes the plan relies on three parts: Ticketmaster’s digital app, third-party health information companies and vaccine distribution partners such as CVS Minute Clinic and Labcorp.The system, as it is planned out now, will require those who purchase a ticket to verify they have been vaccinated or have tested negative for the coronavirus 24 to 72 hours before the event.
Qantas says it will make vaccinations against COVID-19 "a necessity" for international flyers, according to the airline's CEO, Allan Joyce.
and so on....
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Fed Gov, SM announcement Tuesday.
To the comment above regarding cases will rise with vaccine I agree, what needs to be made clear and agreed on with states and territory’s what is the acceptable risk for covid along with the vaccine just like Measles, Chicken pox etc neither are 100% and people still get those diseases.
To the comment above regarding cases will rise with vaccine I agree, what needs to be made clear and agreed on with states and territory’s what is the acceptable risk for covid along with the vaccine just like Measles, Chicken pox etc neither are 100% and people still get those diseases.
In fact the same vaccination is also an entry requirement for Australia if you’ve been in those parts of the world in the past 6 days. You even tick the box on the yellow pax arrival card. But as a AU citizen you won’t get stopped from entering AU.
Precisely. This will involve ongoing vaccinations. However and this is the important point. We do not shut down the economy and state and international borders for the flu. So if / when a mutated strain appears that is resistant to current vaccines then what happens...... oh . Same as happens now ?????? Shut everything until a new, modified vaccine is produced then everyone is vaccinated. How long does that take again.
The reason why governments aim for total elimination is because if the population is not immunised then any outbreak has a high chance of becoming uncontrolled leading to the disasters we can see in other parts of the world at the moment. At one point Italy, Brazil, UK, USA all had one case, but even with lockdowns and restrictions the virus has caused mass amounts of chaos. Australian governments have decided to not let the country get to that stage of collapse.
When we have a vaccine that eliminates the potential for overcrowding of hospitals, wiping out of vulnerable populations, mass spread, etc then the pandemic is over. The virus remains, and may flare up from time to time, but the pandemic is over.
I’ll repeat, the vaccine is about stopping a pandemic, not a virus.
To back that post up here’s an article which explains the situation about a vaccine eliminating a virus versus controlling a disease and pandemic:
Few vaccines prevent infection. Here is why that's not a problem - ABC News
For example, vaccines targeting rotavirus, a common cause of diarrhoea in infants, are only capable of preventing severe disease.
But this has still proven invaluable in controlling the virus.
In the US, there has been almost 90 per cent fewer cases of rotavirus-associated hospital visits since the vaccine was introduced in 2006.
But this has still proven invaluable in controlling the virus.
In the US, there has been almost 90 per cent fewer cases of rotavirus-associated hospital visits since the vaccine was introduced in 2006.
So again Covid at the moment is not like the flu. It has a high reproduction number and exponential spread. This is why all these measures (social distancing, travel restrictions, lockdowns etc) are being taken. To limit the total spread which limits spread to vulnerable populations.
The reason why governments aim for total elimination is because if the population is not immunised then any outbreak has a high chance of becoming uncontrolled leading to the disasters we can see in other parts of the world at the moment. At one point Italy, Brazil, UK, USA all had one case, but even with lockdowns and restrictions the virus has caused mass amounts of chaos. Australian governments have decided to not let the country get to that stage of collapse.
When we have a vaccine that eliminates the potential for overcrowding of hospitals, wiping out of vulnerable populations, mass spread, etc then the pandemic is over. The virus remains, and may flare up from time to time, but the pandemic is over.
I’ll repeat, the vaccine is about stopping a pandemic, not a virus.
The reason why governments aim for total elimination is because if the population is not immunised then any outbreak has a high chance of becoming uncontrolled leading to the disasters we can see in other parts of the world at the moment. At one point Italy, Brazil, UK, USA all had one case, but even with lockdowns and restrictions the virus has caused mass amounts of chaos. Australian governments have decided to not let the country get to that stage of collapse.
When we have a vaccine that eliminates the potential for overcrowding of hospitals, wiping out of vulnerable populations, mass spread, etc then the pandemic is over. The virus remains, and may flare up from time to time, but the pandemic is over.
I’ll repeat, the vaccine is about stopping a pandemic, not a virus.
The political narrative in Australia has not/is not preparing the Australian population for a RISE in cases once the vaccine is rolled out. I’m sure this will come, but given the political games being played, there’s plenty more “political fodder” to be made by playing the COVID fear game a it longer.
Australia is an island, so closing international borders and trying to suppress the any virus internally is always going to be the best strategy (with COVID or any future pandemic).
But after scaring the s*** out of people for what will be almost 2 years (by the time the vaccine is widely available), do you honestly think Australians will just ignore a rise in cases around the end of this year??