Will you ever go back to Aviation?
At some point it will need to be integrated, tested and certified into a real oxygen breathing aeroplane. Integrating different "systems" into something that needs to actually fly not just be simulated is a very difficult proposition. I'm thinking Kaman Seasprite and the RAN.
I’ll never understand why, as a society, we’re so hell bent on putting people out of work. It’s already been said, but if true AI is realised, it won’t just be Pilots out of work. Given humanity’s history of “looking before they leap” we’ll have all these fancy self flying Aircraft with no one buying tickets because the population is unemployed and broke.
But I digress...
Currently I cant even leave old mate alone for 5 minutes to take a leak without a CC member supervising them. So Single Pilot + AI will be a very interesting discussion in terms of who’s actually in Command. The AI or the “Captain”.
Secondly, right now, there’ll be no shortage of Pilots suitably qualified to babysit the AI, having done their “apprenticeship” as FO’s. Once it’s all single Pilot, will kids be going fist “Solo” in an Airliner?
I've (hopefully) got 20 years give or take left in the saddle, and I can definitely see Long-Haul becoming 2 Pilot, single Pilot Cruise in my career, but Single (or no) Pilot is a ways off I imagine.
Ignoring everything else, I can see Liability being the big brick wall in this endeavour. When (not it) one of these fancy AI Aircraft crash, and the manufacturer can’t blame the Pilots, and the class actions start rolling in, and Airlines around the world are forced to ground entire fleets until the software is fixed, will it really be worth it?
Boeing and Airbus sell the Aircraft, they don’t employ the Pilots. How much liability are they going to willingly accept so their customers can save a few percent on operating costs?
If every other form of transport becomes fully automated during my career, I might start to worry. But given most trains still have drivers and they’re on tracks, I can’t see us being replaced in my lifetime.
Yes, single Pilot cruise is likely coming to Long-haul, and yes, the jobs going to get even more automated and tedious, but there will till be 2 Pilots up front for Takeoff and Landing.
But I digress...
Currently I cant even leave old mate alone for 5 minutes to take a leak without a CC member supervising them. So Single Pilot + AI will be a very interesting discussion in terms of who’s actually in Command. The AI or the “Captain”.
Secondly, right now, there’ll be no shortage of Pilots suitably qualified to babysit the AI, having done their “apprenticeship” as FO’s. Once it’s all single Pilot, will kids be going fist “Solo” in an Airliner?
I've (hopefully) got 20 years give or take left in the saddle, and I can definitely see Long-Haul becoming 2 Pilot, single Pilot Cruise in my career, but Single (or no) Pilot is a ways off I imagine.
Ignoring everything else, I can see Liability being the big brick wall in this endeavour. When (not it) one of these fancy AI Aircraft crash, and the manufacturer can’t blame the Pilots, and the class actions start rolling in, and Airlines around the world are forced to ground entire fleets until the software is fixed, will it really be worth it?
Boeing and Airbus sell the Aircraft, they don’t employ the Pilots. How much liability are they going to willingly accept so their customers can save a few percent on operating costs?
If every other form of transport becomes fully automated during my career, I might start to worry. But given most trains still have drivers and they’re on tracks, I can’t see us being replaced in my lifetime.
Yes, single Pilot cruise is likely coming to Long-haul, and yes, the jobs going to get even more automated and tedious, but there will till be 2 Pilots up front for Takeoff and Landing.
I’m still to see an autopilot make a good decision, and I am yet to see a human make good decisions 100% of the time. I HAVE seen an experienced, well trained crew use an aircraft system as a tool in the operation of the aircraft, and I’ve seen such crews cross check each other’s work to virtually eliminate errors.
Good luck to you Xeptu, you’ll probably want to get a command quick smart then, you know, before all the airlines sack FOs because the computer is doing your job.
It will be trained, no different to you were, it will be trained only once and replicated into thousands.
And this fantastical machine will make decisions? Think for itself? Or will it still require a human to tell it what to do?
I’m still to see an autopilot make a good decision, and I am yet to see a human make good decisions 100% of the time. I HAVE seen an experienced, well trained crew use an aircraft system as a tool in the operation of the aircraft, and I’ve seen such crews cross check each other’s work to virtually eliminate errors.
Good luck to you Xeptu, you’ll probably want to get a command quick smart then, you know, before all the airlines sack FOs because the computer is doing your job.
I’m still to see an autopilot make a good decision, and I am yet to see a human make good decisions 100% of the time. I HAVE seen an experienced, well trained crew use an aircraft system as a tool in the operation of the aircraft, and I’ve seen such crews cross check each other’s work to virtually eliminate errors.
Good luck to you Xeptu, you’ll probably want to get a command quick smart then, you know, before all the airlines sack FOs because the computer is doing your job.
I know it's difficult to imagine, but 30 years ago, we couldn't have imagined WiFi either.
Yes it will make decisions the same as you, think the same as you, operate the same as you.
It will be trained, no different to you were, it will be trained only once and replicated into thousands.
I read in the paper today that Wharfies are threatening to shut down the country again. Yet people think that Pilots are going to be redundant in the near future. If we can't or can't afford to automate something so simple as a wharf how are we going to automate an aviation network??
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I know it all sounds 24th century, but we are further along than you think. How Amelia will be rolled out, I see a short sim session with a few unsuspecting Captains, the objective to see if you notice she isn't human.
She'll be already in what appears to be a normal seat, greet you by name and a smile when you take your seat. the objective is to keep you in the dark about what she is as much as possible. If it's successful, you won't know until the session is complete and you have left the simulator. Only those behind you will know. If none of the subject captains twigged that something isn't quite right here then she's ready.
She'll be already in what appears to be a normal seat, greet you by name and a smile when you take your seat. the objective is to keep you in the dark about what she is as much as possible. If it's successful, you won't know until the session is complete and you have left the simulator. Only those behind you will know. If none of the subject captains twigged that something isn't quite right here then she's ready.
She'll be already in what appears to be a normal seat, greet you by name and a smile when you take your seat. the objective is to keep you in the dark about what she is as much as possible. If it's successful, you won't know until the session is complete and you have left the simulator. Only those behind you will know. If none of the subject captains twigged that something isn't quite right here then she's ready.
So when the briefing officer tells you’re briefing on your own and that the FO is waiting in the sim, that’ll be your first clue.
Last edited by ruprecht; 15th Sep 2020 at 06:23.
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Really?
I dont believe there will a material change to terms and conditions (certainly at the bigger end of town). I dont remeber seeing any significant improvements to T&Cs directly attributed to a pilot shortage in the past, so unless pilots buckle under threat I dont see an adverse change now.
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I was lucky to be part of the industry in the Golden Era. First as a passenger as a boy and then finally got into GA and then a domestic airline. Left the industry many years ago and feel for the younger guys and girls who fought hard to get into the airlines like me. The industry has changed so much that I feel the regulator has lost touch with the real life challenges of both GA and RPT ops. Despite my age I gained a lot of skills from the old timers who were my instructors and examiners of airmen in the DCA in the late 1960's onwards. There are now so many restrictions and rule changes that I feel are there to protect the regulator from indemnity rather than focusing on safety. Can still remember when, during my initial twin endorsement in a Twin Camanche, we unintentionally got into a flat spin with the late James Hazelton who suggested we try a full power stall, We were lucky to get out of it but Jim had a technique for recovery talked me through it rather than taking over. The next day we told the head examiner of airmen DCA at Bankstown and he had the flight manuals amended so as to prevent such incidents.
In those days the DCA and Bureau of Air Safety worked together. The great thing about those days were that if you experienced an abnormal incident you could be honest with the regulator in the interests of safety. Although I have a lot of experience in the industry and would like to impart the knowledge to the younger generation I do not have faith in either the regulator nor the ATSB in its present form. Thus because of my age and my distrust of the industry in it's present form I doubt if I will ever return.
In those days the DCA and Bureau of Air Safety worked together. The great thing about those days were that if you experienced an abnormal incident you could be honest with the regulator in the interests of safety. Although I have a lot of experience in the industry and would like to impart the knowledge to the younger generation I do not have faith in either the regulator nor the ATSB in its present form. Thus because of my age and my distrust of the industry in it's present form I doubt if I will ever return.
