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Will you ever go back to Aviation?

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Will you ever go back to Aviation?

Old 31st May 2020, 06:21
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Slezy9 View Post
Not at all. Over the past 20 years the RAAF has seen a steady decline in applicants. The reduced numbers in through the door of recruiting would imply that there is just a smaller pool for the RAAF to choose from. A larger pool means more chance of higher quality applicants.

I think aviation in general has suffered over the past decades from a low level of interest. I think being a pilot is the best job out there, but it also has its downsides! I just wish I didn't love staring out the window so much!
I think there is a smaller percentage of young people these days willing to hand over control of their life for 11.5-14.5 years to the military. I can't blame them, with the options that were available only months ago within the industry, there were other avenues. People talk about HECS debt, but very few mention the burden of being told where to live, when to go on leave etc that comes with the military. Nothing is ever free!
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Old 9th Jun 2020, 07:56
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Slezy9 View Post
Not at all. Over the past 20 years the RAAF has seen a steady decline in applicants. The reduced numbers in through the door of recruiting would imply that there is just a smaller pool for the RAAF to choose from. A larger pool means more chance of higher quality applicants.

I think aviation in general has suffered over the past decades from a low level of interest. I think being a pilot is the best job out there, but it also has its downsides! I just wish I didn't love staring out the window so much!
I agree that the numbers have declined coming through the doors and that with a lower number the likelihood of having quality candidates reduces but is maintained via entry requirements. But the RAAF have attempted to address this by changing the requirements for entry. This allows more applicants to progress to the selection process but whether this will translate to a greater graduation number of high quality candidates remains to be seen.

Yes general aviation has suffered but not over the last decade but more likely over the last three decades. I do not think you will find many if any that would argue that todays commercial career bears no resemblance
to pre 1990's commercial career.Unfortunately world events have conspired to make the attraction of a career as a commercial pilot, well not attractive. The lack of experienced pilots was becoming an issue when 911 occurred. Than SARS etc. I know there has been oddles of advice given to those looking at a career in aviation mainly revolving around have a backup and good luck. I agree.
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Old 9th Jun 2020, 08:12
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by junior.VH-LFA View Post
I think there is a smaller percentage of young people these days willing to hand over control of their life for 11.5-14.5 years to the military. I can't blame them, with the options that were available only months ago within the industry, there were other avenues. People talk about HECS debt, but very few mention the burden of being told where to live, when to go on leave etc that comes with the military. Nothing is ever free!
Hmm, yes, no, maybe. We certainly have a more transient career population but also most professionals do not change career paths (do know a few who have but they generally having to many of those stray neurons upstairs). This has been highlighted for the last 20 + years and attempted to be addressed with a varying ROSO. Most people join the military for a career with the option or plan to move to commercial. In regards to the options that were available a few months ago in the commercial area I would argue that the military has changed, for the better, to what it was a decade plus ago ( as I would point out the commercial life is nothing to what it was 20 plus years ago). If you are flying for a commercial organisation where to live may well, and certainly is for juniors, not an option. Leave in the military has been recognised as a requirement and your superior that denies a leave app needs a very good reason.

I guess it all comes back to the individual and what they find attractive for career.


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Old 9th Jun 2020, 08:19
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Not at all. Over the past 20 years the RAAF has seen a steady decline in applicants. The reduced numbers in through the door of recruiting would imply that there is just a smaller pool for the RAAF to choose from. A larger pool means more chance of higher quality applicants.
Given the very low numbers that actually pass every year and the disproportionate number of applicants compared to the pass rate, is there ever really going to be an issue for the RAAF? One thing they could change would be the failure rate. In reality if you get through the RAAF selection you should have close to 95% pass rate once on course.

But the RAAF have attempted to address this by changing the requirements for entry. This allows more applicants to progress to the selection process but whether this will translate to a greater graduation number of high quality candidates remains to be seen.
It could also be just a way of dealing with some heat they have copped over recent years about their lack of "diversity" in pilot ranks.
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Old 10th Jun 2020, 08:33
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by neville_nobody View Post
Given the very low numbers that actually pass every year and the disproportionate number of applicants compared to the pass rate, is there ever really going to be an issue for the RAAF? One thing they could change would be the failure rate. In reality if you get through the RAAF selection you should have close to 95% pass rate once on course.



It could also be just a way of dealing with some heat they have copped over recent years about their lack of "diversity" in pilot ranks.
NN, the "disproportionate number of applicants compared to the pass rate" is an arguable statement. How many apply and have no chance of making it through the first stage of recruiting due to a myriad of reasons ranging from medical to educational is not a valid comparison of the pass rate. What is a low pass rate? The RAAF has been around the 60% pass rate for years and with the new selection and training system planning to increase that percentage.

NN you are so right. In the perfect world the selection process would be perfect and to a large extent is fairly accurate with who has a high chance of passing and who is a risk and fails. Yes there are the surprises both ways where an apparent very good applicant falls by the wayside. A lot of that can be attributed to external factors that are beyond the control of not only the selection process but the individual. The same as the applicants that appears a risk but worth a go and ends up duxing the course. The latter is far less common. The new selection process is likely to improve the pass rate.

Your "diversity" comment has some merit but also has been in the system for some time with the IMPS being fairly constant apart for attracting the diversity numbers.

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Old 10th Sep 2020, 14:36
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.
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Old 10th Sep 2020, 23:13
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by chrismonson85 View Post
I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.
You spent 140k on a CPL/IR????
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Old 10th Sep 2020, 23:18
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by chrismonson85 View Post
I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.
Plenty of jobs out there for a fresh CPL Graduate, like just about every other pilot has done in the past you need to go looking for them. Head North and have fun! Wasnít there a company in Shark Bay looking for an admin assistant?
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Old 10th Sep 2020, 23:46
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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At least there's a bit more reality in this thread than there is over in the QF Group thread. Age 55 is the magic number in the workforce generally, if you find yourself unemployed without a very specific niche skillset.
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 00:31
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by aussieflyboy View Post
Plenty of jobs out there for a fresh CPL Graduate, like just about every other pilot has done in the past you need to go looking for them. Head North and have fun! Wasnít there a company in Shark Bay looking for an admin assistant?
that admin role....I heard first hand they had 400 applications.

Unfortunately universities and flying schoolS have been telling pork pies to potential students for years. All the flashy beat ups about estimate pilot number that will be needed etc.
i even seen a Qld university advertising they have both an a320 and a 737 sim...WHAT THE HELL WOULD THEY NEED THAT FOR?

There are still jobs out there...but these next few years will be the most competitive itís ever been...not just with added students with fresh cpls...but guys who were further up the ladder having to come back down...and operators taking full advantage of that.

Goodluck to all...and if you do get that ďcrap c210 job based out of Arnhem LandĒ...it will be the most fun youíll ever have in a plane


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Old 11th Sep 2020, 00:40
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by chrismonson85 View Post
I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.
Pack the car and head north mate. I can think of at least 10 companies off the top of my head youíd be able to talk to before you hit Darwin
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 00:51
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by chrismonson85 View Post
I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.
Donít despair. In the long run your qualifications will come in useful.

Pandemics pass, this one will too, recessions pass, as will this one. I would say 2-3 years.

Aviation will still boom worldwide over the next 20 years. Boeing still estimates weíll need another 600,000 airline pilots worldwide in the next two decades, half in the Asia Pacific, our region. In some parts of the world aviation is almost back at pre Covid levels today.

The youngest of the Baby boomer generation, born 1945-65, are now at age 55. So that means theyíll be retiring over the next 5-10 years. Iíve seen pilot age and retirement data from airlines and there is a big chunk set to go over the next 5-10 years in line with predictions. Theyíll need to be replaced somehow. There is a reason airlines are continuing to invest in and recruit for pilot academies. Theyíre thinking 2030, not 2020.

For perspective Iíll assume youíre about 21, as are your classmates. In 4 decades retirement age will probably be around 70. Thatís 50 years of working life. This current recession will take up 5% of the total length of your career. A tiny minority. Itís only because this is all youíve seen in your time in professional aviation it will lead you to believe this is how it will be all the time. It wonít. In a 50 year career youíll probably see at least two other downturns like this. Every other downturn in history passed, as will this.

You may need to do other things for a year or two, but keep your hand in aviation, keep current, network etc. Youíll be in a good spot especially if upon return to the norm a lot of the baby boomer generation have taken early retirement and some students planning to commence professional pilot training in the next 12 months decide not to, leaving a supply issue you can take advantage of.

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Old 11th Sep 2020, 00:58
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Spot on Dr Dre
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 01:19
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Feel for all you guys, it's going to be a long way back to anything normal if at all. Like a lot of others from my era we are all retired and a myriad of things have changed in Aviation since our day. You now have to deal with something no one saw coming COVID - 19
We were lucky we only had to deal with an ars........le Prime Minister who saw us as Bus Drivers so we went driving Taxi's, Buses and took Labouring Jobs whilst awaiting placement anywhere in the World. That is obviously not on this time and getting any job not necessarily in Aviation is a priority -
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 01:34
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Itís not true that you have no prospects.

Gíday Chris,

Itís ok to be ďat a lossĒ in these crazy times. I can understand the feeling, but donít go talking yourself down or buy into the gloom, doom and hysteria that is everywhere today. If you follow that path then you likely wonít be in a position to jump at opportunities when they finally do open up.

Yes, times have changed and youíve got a big debt, but you do have prospects and something to look forward to.

Youíve got age on your side, health and proven skills/abilities. It may be that you donít end up flying for a while - thatís disappointing, but not the end of the world. I suggest you prioritise your health/fitness and an income that is not flying to knock that debt over. Make it a challenge. You are not defined by being a pilot. Keep your finger on the aviation pulse but get comfortable hitting the pause button on your log book. Life is good. Donít forget it.

All the best.

pithblot

FWIW
Will I ever go back to aviation? Yeah/nah. Iím pretty happy to rule a line under my last log book entry in March after 42 years in the game. Iíve had a great time, lots of ups and downs so-to-speak. Itís been the best job in the world and the worst career. But flying being what flying is, someone might just wheel out a PC24 for me to play with; or a DC3, or a glider. So Iíll rule the log book line in pencil, just for the moment




Last edited by pithblot; 11th Sep 2020 at 01:46.
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 01:49
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pithblot View Post
Gíday Chris,

Itís ok to be ďat a lossĒ in these crazy times. I can understand the feeling, but donít go talking yourself down or buy into the gloom, doom and hysteria that is everywhere today. If you follow that path then you likely wonít be in a position to jump at opportunities when they finally do open up.

Yes, times have changed and youíve got a big debt, but you do have prospects and something to look forward to.

Youíve got age on your side, health and proven skills/abilities. It may be that you donít end up flying for a while - thatís disappointing, but not the end of the world. I suggest you prioritise your health/fitness and an income that is not flying to knock that debt over. Make it a challenge. You are not defined by being a pilot. Keep your finger on the aviation pulse but get comfortable hitting the pause button on your log book. Life is good. Donít forget it.

All the best.

pithblot

FWIW
Will I ever go back to aviation? Yeah/nah. Iím pretty happy to rule a line under my last log book entry in March after 42 years in the game. Iíve had a great time, lots of ups and downs so-to-speak. Itís been the best job in the world and the worst career. But flying being what flying is, someone might just wheel out a PC24 for me to play with; or a glider. So Iíll rule the log book line in pencil, just for the moment
The B200 does nicely so long as it's all glass and has all the goodies in it
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 01:52
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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Agreed.
I wouldnít want to sound selfish
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 02:01
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pithblot View Post
Agreed.
I wouldnít want to sound selfish
We are old and retired, be as selfish as you like I'm not even embarrassed by it anymore.
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 02:23
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Flyboy1987 View Post
that admin role....I heard first hand they had 400 applications.
In my day positions like that wouldnít have needed to advertise! I would have been working at the pub waiting for a job like that to come up!
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 02:37
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by chrismonson85 View Post
I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.
Hi mate, I feel for you and many others just starting out. But you have not made a big mistake.

You made a decision on the best info you had at the time and no doubt chose aviation because you love flying.

This will turn around, the hard bit to process is ďwhen?Ē The day it does though, you will look at your job and say I am glad I chose something I enjoy.

Good luck, and as others say, chase a job even if it means moving somewhere else for a while.
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