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Time for a reality Check

Old 17th May 2020, 06:12
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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Now weíre trapped though..low cases low immunity..closed borders..widespread everywhere else and everywhere else giving up and reopening..now weíre in a downunder prison and canít escape until a vaccine is found (if ever)
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Old 17th May 2020, 07:01
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mattyj View Post
Now weíre trapped though..low cases low immunity..closed borders..widespread everywhere else and everywhere else giving up and reopening..now weíre in a downunder prison and canít escape until a vaccine is found (if ever)
A prison the size of a continent... apart from going on holidays to Port Douglas instead of Bali, Aussies wonít notice any difference to their day to day lives.

The challenge will be convincing the states to open their borders, but hopefully by July weíll be free to explore our often overlooked Ďbackyardí.

Id rather be in our position than the US or UK.
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Old 17th May 2020, 07:15
  #83 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by BewareOfTheSharklets View Post
I would love to see a source for this claim. Based on the US being late with absolutely everything when it comes to dealing with this pandemic, I'm finding it extremely hard to believe that they ordered "100s of millions" of syringes for a hypothetical vaccine. Would love to be proven wrong though.
As you wish.
Rick Bright. In testimony before congress this week stated that the Government placed an order for 350 million syringes on May 1st . If you read the report being hightlighted at 30sec, you will see a reference to January 2020. The link provides video footage of hs testimony.
(The link wont save. Google: Rick Bright syringe shortage. You will see a link to the CNN story.)

As I said in a previous post, why are they running a story about a vaccine that doesn't exist yet? As another poster wrote, no one knows what form a vaccine might be developed in. Even the banner headline, is a hypothetical scenario designed to isntill fear and rage.
Now according to some people, the response of the World is appropriate, the W.H.O have done nothing wrong, their warnings were repsonsible and they were transparent at all times.
SO if that is the case, you then don't get to go and bash the US Government for not having enough syringes to admisiter a vaccine that does not exist for a viurs they had no idea about. (in January)
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Old 17th May 2020, 07:40
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE View Post
Aussies wonít notice any difference to their day to day lives.
Those of us stood down with no pay will certainly notice...
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Old 17th May 2020, 08:11
  #85 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ruprecht View Post
Those of us stood down with no pay will certainly notice...
its tough, I know. As a domestic pilot Iím even pessimistic about getting back to work, given the states border closures.

But the 5000 or so pilots in the country (2000ish long haul) being temporarily out of the job to protect the health of 25 million people is a worthwhile trade off.
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Old 17th May 2020, 08:18
  #86 (permalink)  
 
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There is a lot of overcautious fear in Oz it seems that is little based on fact!

The U.K. 500000 death total was a figure that has now been utterly discredited as it used a known suspect buggy computer model that has been described by one software expert as ďsim city without the graphicsĒ. The epidemiologists are so embarrassed by the code they wonít release it in its original form. It made incorrect assumptions about case fatality rate, infection rate, the growth in availability in beds and a host of other issues. It was designed for flu pandemics not COVID.

Second point. The same model predicted that Sweden, if they followed their less restricted population control model and allowed the majority of businesses to stay open, would have had 40000 deaths by now. The figure is currently less than 4000. On Sweden, whilst the population is lower in Stockholm itís capital, the population density is higher than London. Yet no exponential growth and they are approaching 40% infection across their population. The virus is already struggling to spread as a result. There is some evidence that the U.K. could already be at (an upward bound in the model) over 30% infected. Once we get to 60% it dies out.

The same modelling team were indicted for huge failures in the foot and mouth crisis. You can read about the Bodge job so called science experts Made, with the eclectic mix of politics, mass public hysteria and failed scientific assumptions here: https://www.private-eye.co.uk/specia...foot-and-mouth

A couple of people have commented on fatality rates at 10%. This is utter nonsense. The hospitalisation rate isnít even that high. The studies in Bonn, Iceland, and Sweden have shown for your typical western decent quality healthcare system, you are looking at an average CFR of around 0.37% The IFR will be lower (possibly much lower) as they donít know The infection rate. This puts corona at 3-4 times more lethal than Flu, not 100 times as stated above. More scaremongering and interesting to see what peopleís mental model thinks of this virus.

When I suggested that we can discount higher risk factors for the elderly, I wasnít suggesting we just let them die. By hard shielding and control, the at risk groups can be protected. We have procedures in place for this sort of measure, as it is practiced for the likes of leukaemia and chemo patients, including volunteer supplies of provisions. There are 8 million people in the U.K. in this condition. On elderly people, the current average age of
death from/with Covid is above U.K. average life expectancy for perspective.

This isnít Ebola (despite the news articles saying they are the same) this is a highly transmissible virus with 3/4 to mes the lethality of Flu. Except well over half that catch it have it so mild they donít know they have had it. If you think our entire way of life on the planet needs changing, that we should incur huge debts that will destroy our kids futures and opportunities and you think large scale entire business sectors need to disappear as a result of controlling it, I would suggest you need some perspective. Australia has in effect cut itself off from the rest of the World, to become a prison isle (again), which is a situation that will remain until we get a vaccine. Which may be never. By the way, even if we do get a vaccine, they still rely upon others catching the virus and recovering, as typical viral immunisations are Only around 30-70% effective. Their efficacy is typically much lower for the elderly, so you still have a massive problem that at some point, itís going to spread with around potentially only 10-40% of your elderly people protected. I think you need some perspective on all of this. All you have done is kick the can down the road.


Last edited by VinRouge; 17th May 2020 at 08:30.
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Old 17th May 2020, 08:35
  #87 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VinRouge View Post
There is a lot of overcautious fear in Oz it seems that is little based on fact!

The U.K. 500000 death total was a figure that has now been utterly discredited as it used a known suspect buggy computer model that has been described by one software expert as ďsim city without the graphicsĒ. The epidemiologists are so embarrassed by the code they wonít release it in its original form. It made incorrect assumptions about case fatality rate, infection rate, the growth in availability in beds and a host of other issues. It was designed for flu pandemics not COVID.

Second point. The same model predicted that Sweden, if they followed their less restricted population control model and allowed the majority of businesses to stay open, would have had 40000 deaths by now. The figure is currently less than 4000. On Sweden, whilst the population is lower in Stockholm itís capital, the population density is higher than London. Yet no exponential growth and they are approaching 40% infection across their population. The virus is already struggling to spread as a result. There is some evidence that the U.K. could already be at (an upward bound in the model) over 30% infected. Once we get to 60% it dies out.

The same modelling team were indicted for huge failures in the foot and mouth crisis. You can read about the Bodge job so called science experts Made, with the eclectic mix of politics, mass public hysteria and failed scientific assumptions here: https://www.private-eye.co.uk/specia...foot-and-mouth

A couple of people have commented on fatality rates at 10%. This is utter nonsense. The hospitalisation rate isnít even that high. The studies in Bonn, Iceland, and Sweden have shown for your typical western decent quality healthcare system, you are looking at an average CFR of around 0.37% The IFR will be lower (possibly much lower) as they donít know The infection rate. This puts corona at 3-4 times more lethal than Flu, not 100 times as stated above. More scaremongering and interesting to see what peopleís mental model thinks of this virus.

When I suggested that we can discount higher risk factors for the elderly, I wasnít suggesting we just let them die. By hard shielding and control, the at risk groups can be protected. We have procedures in place for this sort of measure, as it is practiced for the likes of leukaemia and chemo patients, including volunteer supplies of provisions. There are 8 million people in the U.K. in this condition. On elderly people, the current average age of
death from/with Covid is above U.K. average life expectancy for perspective.

This isnít Ebola (despite the news articles saying they are the same) this is a highly transmissible virus with 3/4 to mes the lethality of Flu. Except well over half that catch it have it so mild they donít know they have had it. If you think our entire way of life on the planet needs changing, that we should incur huge debts that will destroy our kids futures and opportunities and you think large scale entire business sectors need to disappear as a result of controlling it, I would suggest you need some perspective. Australia has in effect cut itself off from the rest of the World, to become a prison isle (again), which is a situation that will remain until we get a vaccine. Which may be never. By the way, even if we do get a vaccine, they still rely upon others catching the virus and recovering, as typical viral immunisations are Only around 30-70% effective. Their efficacy is typically much lower for the elderly, so you still have a massive problem that at some point, itís going to spread with around potentially 10-40% of your elderly people protected. I think you need some perspective on all of this. All you have done is kick the van down the road.
ďlittle based on factĒ

how about 34,000 deaths in the UK versus 98 in Australia...

we have the advantage of geography to cut ourselves off from the rest of the world and Iím absolutely wrapped that that is exactly what we have done, as well as 94% of Aussieís who are also satisfied with the governmentís border closure.
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Old 17th May 2020, 08:38
  #88 (permalink)  
 
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Oh ok then...
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Old 17th May 2020, 08:50
  #89 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE View Post
ďlittle based on factĒ

how about 34,000 deaths in the UK versus 98 in Australia...

we have the advantage of geography to cut ourselves off from the rest of the world and Iím absolutely wrapped that that is exactly what we have done, as well as 94% of Aussieís who are also satisfied with the governmentís border closure.
34000 people, the majority (95%+) with severe chronic conditions. And you still havenít answered the question of how you unwind all of this mindful of vaccine efficacy. The pain is coming, it will have to be allowed to spread at some point and when it does, Oz will get the butchers bill that they have avoided but have just kicked down the road. Thatís nature Iím afraid! Iím guessing by then there will be something else to get hysterical about, another big bush fire, the media will have lost interest and no one will know (or care) about the uptick in Coronavirus deaths that are going on behind the scenes.
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Old 17th May 2020, 09:05
  #90 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VinRouge View Post
34000 people, the majority (95%+) with severe chronic conditions.
I've noticed this line of thinking quite a bit. Even though it's not completely true, why shouldn't those living with a chronic illness deserve to be protected from a pandemic?

how about 34,000 deaths in the UK
Firstly that's an admitted understatement because the government hasn't been recording care home and private residence deaths, only hospital ones. But even if we go from the lowest figure of 34,000 we can see it is far more serious than a bad flu season. Between 2014-18 each flu season (Lasting from 1 October to 18 April, northern hemisphere winter) produced around 12,000-28,000 flu deaths in the UK. The COVID-19 death rate in the UK only really shot up after the 24th of March so in less than two months, half of which are outside the traditional 6.5 month flu season COVID killed almost 2.5 times more people. Extrapolated out it will be in the range of 5-10 times more lethal than the flu. The real danger will be a re-occurrence next autumn with a full winter season for it to spread.

United Kingdom Coronavirus Cases

Surveillance of influenza and other respiratory viruses in the UK
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Old 17th May 2020, 09:09
  #91 (permalink)  
 
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"its tough, I know. As a domestic pilot I’m even pessimistic about getting back to work, given the states border closures.

But the 5000 or so pilots in the country (2000ish long haul) being temporarily out of the job to protect the health of 25 million people is a worthwhile trade of"

add to that number the many contract pilots who are Australian, pay Aus taxes but are employed overseas and are stood down or on reduced pay, who are getting NO assistance from all the govt schemes.
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Old 17th May 2020, 09:14
  #92 (permalink)  
 
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LMFAO!

Now we’re expert immunologists, virologists and Nobel laureate winners. We know better than the medical experts that have apparently deliberately sabotaged and destroyed the economy, businesses and jobs just for kicks! Talk about conspiracy theories!

Pilot’s, generally, make terrible investors and lose money running businesses because they mistake skill, experience, expertise in their profession with a false belief that ability applies to everything else.
Similarly they’re attractive to women because, hey I’m a pilot, have you seen my big jet?!
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Old 17th May 2020, 09:16
  #93 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
I've noticed this line of thinking quite a bit. Even though it's not completely true, why shouldn't those living with a chronic illness deserve to be protected from a pandemic?
Because the cost to government and the economy if each victim is currently running at over 90 times at what NICE would fund in the U.K if they were a cancer victim or needing an expensive form of Medical care. Approximately 55,000 per patient year life extension is that figure. So, just because they have Covid, they get 90 times the cash thrown at them as would a 35 year old prostate cancer sufferer.

Itís in effect stealing the future of our kids who will not have that money to invest as they see fit. We should not be blowing the cash that they will need on decent healthcare, education and investment on prolonging/protecting the lives today for those that have their best years behind them. Besides, with hard shielding, there will be no additional risk for these groups. Unfortunately, despite with over 300,000 currently being infected with this in the U.K. elderly vulnerable people think that 7 visits to the supermarket A week is appropriate. Government wonít touch them and lock down by age group, which is the biggest current failure in policy. Someone over 70 is twenty times as likely to require hospitalisation as someone below 60. There has been widescale derision by certain politically influential demographics of the population. There is some belief that just because you can run 10km as a 73 year old, you donít have a 73 year old immune system.
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Old 17th May 2020, 09:28
  #94 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VinRouge View Post
34000 people, the majority (95%+) with severe chronic conditions. And you still havenít answered the question of how you unwind all of this mindful of vaccine efficacy. The pain is coming, it will have to be allowed to spread at some point and when it does, Oz will get the butchers bill that they have avoided but have just kicked down the road. Thatís nature Iím afraid! Iím guessing by then there will be something else to get hysterical about, another big bush fire, the media will have lost interest and no one will know (or care) about the uptick in Coronavirus deaths that are going on behind the scenes.
I think the plan is to cut ourselves off from the rest of the world until a vaccine or effective treatment becomes available and then open the borders to the world again.

If that takes 6,12,18 or 24 months, so be it!

I donít think someone with a pre existing condition deserves a death sentence (such as your 95%). Each death is a tragedy, I donít mind my career taking a temporary set back to prevent the catastrophe being faced in the UK, US and Europe.
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Old 17th May 2020, 09:35
  #95 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE View Post
I think the plan is to cut ourselves off from the rest of the world until a vaccine or effective treatment becomes available and then open the borders to the world again.

If that takes 6,12,18 or 24 months, so be it!

I donít think someone with a pre existing condition deserves a death sentence (such as your 95%). Each death is a tragedy, I donít mind my career taking a temporary set back to prevent the catastrophe being faced in the UK, US and Europe.
If they remain locked down, (something that chemo and leukaemia patients have established procedures for) then there s no additional risk and it isnít a death sentence. Those with chronic conditions catching this have far better odds than you would expect. It is not Ebola!

still doesnít get around that

a) there may never be a vaccine - what do
you do then? Never go abroad where the rest of the world have had it and are naturally immune but itís prevalent?

b) you will still have a significant death toll
from the 80-60% of the elderly population that have no protection even after a vaccine.
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Old 17th May 2020, 09:43
  #96 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VinRouge View Post
If they remain locked down, (something that chemo and leukaemia patients have established procedures for) then there s no additional risk and it isnít a death sentence. Those with chronic conditions catching this have far better odds than you would expect. It is not Ebola!

still doesnít get around that

a) there may never be a vaccine - what do
you do then? Never go abroad where the rest of the world have had it and are naturally immune but itís prevalent?

b) you will still have a significant death toll
from the 80-60% of the elderly population that have no protection even after a vaccine.
a) letís just wait and find out, not assume itís impossible and open the floodgates for infections. Id take an effective treatment or wait until the virus has mutated into something less deadly before opening the borders.

b) from what Iíve read (Iím a pilot, not a doctor), if you vaccinate the vast majority of the population who are healthy enough to receive the vaccine, you get an effective herd immunity and the virus wonít reach those vulnerable in the community.
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Old 17th May 2020, 09:53
  #97 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE View Post
Id take an effective treatment or wait until the virus has mutated into something less deadly before opening the borders.
Just out of interest, exactly how much less deadly than <1% would you like?
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Old 17th May 2020, 09:59
  #98 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Plastic787 View Post
Just out of interest, exactly how much less deadly than <1% would you like?
Less than 0.5% is more accurate.... people have been brainwashed into thinking this is
some horrendous fatal disease, comparable to Ebola. Too much Hollywood and not very much in the way of facts.
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Old 17th May 2020, 10:00
  #99 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Plastic787 View Post
Just out of interest, exactly how much less deadly than <1% would you like?
0.02% the same as H1N1 (swine flu)

death rate in Aus currently 1.4%
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Old 17th May 2020, 10:01
  #100 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Variable Incidence View Post
LMFAO!

Now weíre expert immunologists, virologists and Nobel laureate winners. We know better than the medical experts that have apparently deliberately sabotaged and destroyed the economy, businesses and jobs just for kicks! Talk about conspiracy!
For the record I believe the reaction to this is no conspiracy but is firmly rooted in the pathetically risk averse snowflake culture that we have allowed to perniciously invade our political decision making in the last twenty years. Couple the risk averse attitude with the litigious nature of society today and an almost inescapable mainstream 24hr media (social and mainstream) that screams panic and disaster and this is the inevitable result.
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