Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Time for a reality Check

Old 16th May 2020, 14:17
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ozbiggles View Post
I love it
protect your love ones as best you can and good luck to you., full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes or icebergs.
What you want is what GB and America have pretty much done/doing, over 100,000 dead between them and the economy stuffed and it is not over yet. I think you should so a bit more research on Sweden before holding it up as a beacon of hope. What you have got is the economy stuffed but probably no one you know who has been hurt by the virus.
You can have one or the other, seems you have made your choice.We disagree but that is what makes PPRuNe fun!
And on that point it was a shame for us all that aviation has taken a big one for the team, but after all we spread it across the world in record time.
And if it helps I got retrenched because of Covid (well that was the main reason given at the time) but I support what we have had to do, particularly when we still donít know the end game.
Oz has the pain to come. Going to keep your economy locked down to the globe forever? There is no hope of a vaccine inside of 2 years. The only realistic way out is herd immunity.

Which means Sweden/USA/U.K. are closer to the end of the tunnel than Korea/NZ/Oz and other lockdown nations.

How many people did Korea have to contact trace last single infection? 5000? Are you telling me that is realistic when there are now likely to be over 100 million infections at play globally today?

One thing I donít understand is how intelligent people miss the point that Swedenís elevated mortality is a consequence and not a failure of their strategy. They know full well that the impact of fighting NCov and Flu at the same time will stretch health care past breaking point of this continues into their winter They are taking the pain now to avoid it in the future. Where would you prefer to trade/holiday? Somewhere that is liable to repeat lockdowns, stasi police action and a swab rammed 10cm up your nose, or somewhere that has had such widespread infection that it canít spread any more? There are areas of the U.K. now that are suspected (in papers awaiting peer review) to be approaching 30% infection and immunity (Manchester Uni). Next wave will be far less severe as a consequence of this and a much better understanding of at risk groups.

If you want to see how far governments are going to spread the fear, you only have to look at this ďOptionsĒ piece provided to government by a senior scientific body in the U.K.:

https://assets.publishing.service.go...s-22032020.pdf


. Persuasion
2. Perceived threat: A substantial number of people still do not feel sufficiently personally threatened; it could be that they are reassured by the low death rate in their demographic group (8), although levels of concern may be rising (9). Having a good understanding of the risk has been found to be positively associated with adoption of COVID-19 social distancing measures in Hong Kong (10). The perceived level of personal threat needs to be increased among those who are complacent, using hard-hitting. emotional messaging. To be effective this must also empower people by making clear the actions they can take to reduce the threat (11).
in other words, use mass media hysteria to scare the living Jesus out of people and invoke false boogie men. I would suggest it isnít just UK government that are acting along these lines as scientists are liable to massive groupthink.

Just for info, in the U.K., Out of a suspected 60,000 deaths less than 130 people under 45 have died of this and of the below 70s with no known chronic condition, less than 1300 deaths. Iíve Had NCov, yep itís not flu, it was considerably milder than the last bout of flu I had, and that is common amongst 99.5% of
those non-risk groups who catch this.

Last edited by VinRouge; 16th May 2020 at 14:28.
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Old 16th May 2020, 14:31
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Section28- BE View Post
Who knew??- 'Herd Immunity' 'may-not' be an option..............

Extract/s here:



Article link here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-...id-19/12255468

Rgds all
S28- BE
same was observed in Korea. It was confirmed subsequently that both False Positive results and patients expelling dead lung cells with remaining infection were to blame. This phenomenon was explained a month ago.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9491986.html
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Old 16th May 2020, 15:31
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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For those who say the Coronavirus is no worse than a bad flu season.

In one flu season the US typically has about 12,000-60,000 deaths due in a winter season from December to March.

In April, the second month of spring, the COVID-19 death toll was 60,000. Yes, this is worse than a ďbad flu seasonĒ.

Maybe we should listen to the bulk of the worldís credible public health scientists who are saying this. We are not the experts in this field.
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Old 16th May 2020, 15:39
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by atr-drivr View Post
You watch WAY too much Commie News Network. This has been the Lefts wet dream here in the US, and CNN promotes it. They think Fauci and Scarf Queen are Gods and should be bowed down too....do any amount of research on Fauci...he is NOT the Ďman for the jobí.
I did some research on Fauci, he could be considered the worldís leading expert on infectious disease response for 40 years. He surely knows 100x more about pandemics than the combined knowledge of every single poster here. It is funny to read all the Dunning Kruger effected posters here claiming their viewing of a few conspiracy theory videos on YouTube makes them smarter than Dr Fauci. Keep saying that if it makes you feel smarter.

Anthony Fauci
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Old 16th May 2020, 15:49
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Epidemiology isnt hard fact, it is modelling with varying degrees of success. Now we can look back a few months we can see

1 The WHO should have acted to close China's borders in January. There is significant concern that there is poor leadership behoven to the Chinese

2 Many other countries including the UK should have closed their borders to humans in February. Australia and New Zealand demonstrate that can significantly reduce deaths

3 By the time many countries locked down it was too late. In the UK we were effectively at the peak, controlled solely by social distancing. Lockdown may have reduced deaths but the number of infected people would have progressively fallen regardless

4 In many countries it is now reasonably safe to act normally outside with social distancing. However indoor transmission could still increase the attack rate, and hospitals and care homes remain relatively dangerous

5 Commercial aircraft with humans is the opposite of social distancing. It is very dangerous unless you can guarantee every patient is covid 19 negative. That requires a period of isolation, a PCR swab undertaken by a trained professional plus a questionnaire. That is not feasible so I at least wont fly.

6 We are all fighting each ohter and then adding conspiracy theories when I suspect we all agree we should unlock as much as possible. Lets get the economies up to speed where we can, accept some sectors such as air travel will be hit for some time, and concentrate financial support on airlines to keep them alive until flying is safe
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Old 16th May 2020, 15:54
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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I did some research on Fauci, he could be considered the world’s leading expert on infectious disease response for 40 years
Americans dont have a monopoly on intelligence. He is just another leading doctor in his field. Personally I think there is a big issue with government employed scientists; they have to follow their political masters. Look at the flack he has received for not adulating Donald

He surely knows 100x more about pandemics than the combined knowledge of every single poster here.
True, and he also has access to a lot of data that is being kept redacted by many governments in an unprecedented fashion. However, it is important to challenge and not follow blindly
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Old 16th May 2020, 16:00
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by IBE8720 View Post
This morning's story CNN is that there are not enough syringes to vaccinate people if a vaccine was available. Considering that the same outlet has been stating for months that a vaccine is 12-18 months away, who cares about syringes right now. If you look into it a bit more, you will see that the US Govenrment took steps in January to obtain 100's of Millions more syringes. Just a beat up story for the sake of a story to promote an agenda.
There's no vaccine yet. Maybe there'll never be a vaccine – we don't even know yet whether Covid-19 can be vaccinated against. Claims of 12-18 months, or any other time, are just speculation or hype. If a vaccine is possible, we don't know how long it'll take to develop, go through trials and clear the regulatory hurdles. Those procedures are necessary. Trump with his 'warp speed project' wants to rush a vaccine to market; I guess that means skipping some of the evaluation steps that check for side-effects; if so, try it first on Trump, and his supporters, and their little children too. No? Then do the evaluation properly, even if it takes time.

If a vaccine is ever developed, who knows it'll be administered by syringe injection? It might turn out to be in pill form.
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Old 16th May 2020, 16:05
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Like so many things dominating the headlines, this subject has become massively polarized. If you think the reaction to lockdowns is too much, you're a crazy Republican trump supporter. If you think we should take it seriously and fear for our lives, you're a slave to the media Hysteria machine.

Its possible to take it seriously and not believe the Hysteria however. And there is Hysteria. A good tip is to stop reading forums..
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Old 16th May 2020, 16:18
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by IBE8720 View Post
Some of guys need to get out of the Shire, and stop relying on Channel 9 and CNN for your news.
The only impediment to travel returning to normal are the Governments of the World.

Germany are opening their borders. Firstly with Austria, but have said they will be open for EU and Schengen countries for Summer.
Greece will be open for the Summer holiday season.
Italy have set up beaches to comply with Social Distancing measures, for summer.
Spain has introduced a 14 day quarantine period for arrivals. The quarantine period applies from the 15th till 24th of May only. So if you arrive on the 24th, you go into quarantine. Arrive 25th, straight to the beach.
England has imposed restrictions, with exemptions.
Carnival Cruise Line (everyone's favourite floating petri dish) reopened booking from the 1st of August. Demand is up 600% on this time last year.
The Business World is screaming to be allowed to travel again.

Just to name a few. As soon as restictions are lifted, people are going to travel for the sake of travelling. An airline in America is reporting strong demand as people just travel to visit family. Jobless, debt, wont be a deterrent. Another few $k on the credit card will not even be an after thought.

The media is doing more damage than the virus itself. And it feeds the uneducated massess in overhyped hysteria.
This morning's story CNN is that there are not enough syringes to vaccinate people if a vaccine was available. Considering that the same outlet has been stating for months that a vaccine is 12-18 months away, who cares about syringes right now. If you look into it a bit more, you will see that the US Govenrment took steps in January to obtain 100's of Millions more syringes. Just a beat up story for the sake of a story to promote an agenda.

2 weeks ago the worst was still to come for England. Now all of a sudden, things are improving and it is time to get back to work. Bu11sh1t!

There are other examples of inadequate or flawed testing policy. The death figures are skewed towards making COVID-19 worse than it is.

How many of you actually know someone who has or has had the virus? Only 700 people in Australia currently have the virus. 43% of ALL deaths have come from 2 sources, The Ruby Princess and the Nursing home in Western Sydney.

And for all that, people think the Governments response of have hearted shut down (it wasn't even a proper or effective shutdown) of the country that has financially grippled Australia for 1 or 2 Generations is a reasonable action.
We are now just destroying the World for no tangible benefit.
A relative of mine died in the States because of COVID. Make no mistake, this is a very powerful virus and to think that itís all over is a joke.

Yes we have flattened the curve, but what does that mean? It means that theyre is able to accomodate you in hospital if/when you catch it, it does not mean we have beaten the Virus.

2 weeks is the incubation period, so hence the outlook for the UK......Just take a look at Sweden with their soft control measures, now if you catch the virus there, there is a 42% you will die. Two weeks ago that was sitting in the high 70ís (%)
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Old 16th May 2020, 17:02
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Very dangerous virus that is also still mutating. No question it is dangerous, probably 100 times more powerful than the common flu or more.
WE had a practice run with Sars 1 but a lot of the world did not pay attention. Now we have Sars 2 and some countries took measures they took in Sars 1 and are looking pretty good SO FAR (Taiwan for example).

A good practice seems to be :

1. Close borders, track those infected and everyone else who they may have infected, isolate them, test everyone else . Most countries failed at this and thus containment of the virus didn't happen. WE know the results.

2. Flatten the curve. This is really only a measure to allow the medical facilities to give those who need ICU treatment a chance (and it took weeks on the machines for a chance at survival and the death rate for those in ICU was very very high, in some facilities up to 100pct). Flattening the curve kills the economy and after a time no government can afford everyone to stay home anymore. Curve flattening was just to keep spikes in ICU attention manageable , or at least as much as possible.

3. Herd immunity. Word from many researchers seems to be that this virus will ultimately be uncontained and uncontrollable and basically near everyone is going to get it.
80pct of those who get it "should" not require medical attention. OF the 20pct who do, they may need a lot of treatment and of those perhaps 10 pct or 20pct will die. No one knows the exact numbers as everyone would need to be tested to give a good view. Many researchers feel the overall death rate may be around 1 to 2 pct of all those infected. This would make it still hundreds of times more dangerous than the flu.

But if the world economy goes under millions face huge problems, then possibly 90pct of everyone in the world will have problems caused by a failed economy, failed food and water distribution, etc.

Sars 1 suddenly stopped. Let's hope this virus mutates into a less virulent form (rather than the opposite) and we can get the world back on its feet. We need to. Even if one to two percent or up to five percent of everyone on Earth does not survive. That is better than far more people dying due to a failed world order providing food/ water/ security, shelter. etc.

We have to get back to work !

Losing up to five pct of the world's 7.7 Billion population is no small matter. But endangering 7.7 Billion people will cause more than 5pct to die.
IF everyone stays home indefinitely we will all die.

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Old 16th May 2020, 17:26
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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2 weeks is the incubation period
No, the incubation period is 5 days, with over 85% between 4.5 and 6.5 days

Just take a look at Sweden with their soft control measures, now if you catch the virus there, there is a 42% you will die
The death rate appears unchanged - lockdown affects the Attack rate. Death rate is 0.5 to 2%, less in the young, much more in the elderly

IF everyone stays home indefinitely we will all die.
no, all these viruses eventually disappear. They arent very good at mutating so whilst a small proportion of mutations increase virility, most result in an inactive or intransmissible virus. True we may get more waves, but in a few years it will remit. And the vaccine looks very hopeful with widespread human trials on two disparate vaccines in the UK alone and over 20 different vaccines in various stages worldwide. Manufacturing is already being developed and is expected to start in some cases before approval, although licensing will be needed before it is deployed. If any of the front runners succeed we are likely to be able to start vaccination of high risk individuals and areas before year end.
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Old 16th May 2020, 17:50
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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It’s an anonymous BB so my expectations of finding the truth is minimal. I however wonder if the keep it closed crowd are still employed or are retired and are sure of how they will put food on the table.

Easy to pass judgement on the proper course of action for all when you personally sit higher on Maslow’s pyramid than many of those affected.
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Old 16th May 2020, 20:04
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jnr380 View Post
A relative of mine died in the States because of COVID. Make no mistake, this is a very powerful virus and to think that itís all over is a joke.

Yes we have flattened the curve, but what does that mean? It means that theyre is able to accomodate you in hospital if/when you catch it, it does not mean we have beaten the Virus.

2 weeks is the incubation period, so hence the outlook for the UK......Just take a look at Sweden with their soft control measures, now if you catch the virus there, there is a 42% you will die. Two weeks ago that was sitting in the high 70ís (%)
flattening the curve means one thing. Those with acquired immunity may well lose it. And you have misread true Sweden data. There is a difference between reported infections and actual cases. Where is their exponential growth curve of cases? Oh thatís right, scientists were talking turd. By the way, Stockholm has a higher population density than London
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Old 16th May 2020, 20:07
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by benttrees View Post
Maybe we don't have it that bad?



Itís a mess out there now. Hard to discern between whatís a real threat and what is just simple panic and hysteria. For a small amount of perspective at this moment, imagine you were born in 1900.



On your 14th birthday, World War I starts, and ends on your 18th birthday. 22 million people perish in that war. Later in the year, a Spanish Flu epidemic hits the planet and runs until your 20th birthday. 50 million people die from it in those two years. Yes, 50 million.



On your 29th birthday, the Great Depression begins. Unemployment hits 25%, the World GDP drops 27%. That runs until you are 33. The country nearly collapses along with the world economy.



When you turn 39, World War II starts. You arenít even over the hill yet. And donít try to catch your breath. On your 41st birthday, the United States is fully pulled into WWII. Between your 39th and 45th birthday, 75 million people perish in the war.



Smallpox was epidemic until you were in your 40ís, as it killed 300 million people during your lifetime.



At 50, the Korean War starts. 5 million perish. From your birth, until you are 55 you dealt with the fear of Polio epidemics each summer. You experience friends and family contracting polio and being paralyzed and/or die.



At 55 the Vietnam War begins and doesnít end for 20 years. 4 million people perish in that conflict. During the Cold War, you lived each day with the fear of nuclear annihilation. On your 62nd birthday you have the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tipping point in the Cold War. Life on our planet, as we know it, almost ended. When you turn 75, the Vietnam War finally ends.



Think of everyone on the planet born in 1900. How did theyendure all of that? When you were a kid in 1985 and didnít think your 85 year old grandparent understood how hard school was. And how mean that kid in your class was. Yet they survived through everything listed above. Perspective is an amazing art. Refined and enlightening as time goes on. Letís try and keep things in perspective. Your parents and/or grandparents were called to endure all of the above Ė you are called to stay home and sit on your couch.
The Spanish flu post WW1 killed more people in the second wave of the virus than the first.
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Old 16th May 2020, 20:07
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by homonculus View Post
Epidemiology isnt hard fact, it is modelling with varying degrees of success. Now we can look back a few months we can see

1 The WHO should have acted to close China's borders in January. There is significant concern that there is poor leadership behoven to the Chinese

2 Many other countries including the UK should have closed their borders to humans in February. Australia and New Zealand demonstrate that can significantly reduce deaths

3 By the time many countries locked down it was too late. In the UK we were effectively at the peak, controlled solely by social distancing. Lockdown may have reduced deaths but the number of infected people would have progressively fallen regardless

4 In many countries it is now reasonably safe to act normally outside with social distancing. However indoor transmission could still increase the attack rate, and hospitals and care homes remain relatively dangerous

5 Commercial aircraft with humans is the opposite of social distancing. It is very dangerous unless you can guarantee every patient is covid 19 negative. That requires a period of isolation, a PCR swab undertaken by a trained professional plus a questionnaire. That is not feasible so I at least wont fly.

6 We are all fighting each ohter and then adding conspiracy theories when I suspect we all agree we should unlock as much as possible. Lets get the economies up to speed where we can, accept some sectors such as air travel will be hit for some time, and concentrate financial support on airlines to keep them alive until flying is safe
yep, all great. One point you missed. The virus was in the U.K. and spreading in late november/early December. CAse 0 was not Feb. We had tens of thousands of cases by then. So did many countries.
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Old 16th May 2020, 20:13
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by armchairpilot94116 View Post
Very dangerous virus that is also still mutating. No question it is dangerous, probably 100 times more powerful than the common flu or more.
WE had a practice run with Sars 1 but a lot of the world did not pay attention. Now we have Sars 2 and some countries took measures they took in Sars 1 and are looking pretty good SO FAR (Taiwan for example).

A good practice seems to be :

1. Close borders, track those infected and everyone else who they may have infected, isolate them, test everyone else . Most countries failed at this and thus containment of the virus didn't happen. WE know the results.

2. Flatten the curve. This is really only a measure to allow the medical facilities to give those who need ICU treatment a chance (and it took weeks on the machines for a chance at survival and the death rate for those in ICU was very very high, in some facilities up to 100pct). Flattening the curve kills the economy and after a time no government can afford everyone to stay home anymore. Curve flattening was just to keep spikes in ICU attention manageable , or at least as much as possible.

3. Herd immunity. Word from many researchers seems to be that this virus will ultimately be uncontained and uncontrollable and basically near everyone is going to get it.
80pct of those who get it "should" not require medical attention. OF the 20pct who do, they may need a lot of treatment and of those perhaps 10 pct or 20pct will die. No one knows the exact numbers as everyone would need to be tested to give a good view. Many researchers feel the overall death rate may be around 1 to 2 pct of all those infected. This would make it still hundreds of times more dangerous than the flu.

But if the world economy goes under millions face huge problems, then possibly 90pct of everyone in the world will have problems caused by a failed economy, failed food and water distribution, etc.

Sars 1 suddenly stopped. Let's hope this virus mutates into a less virulent form (rather than the opposite) and we can get the world back on its feet. We need to. Even if one to two percent or up to five percent of everyone on Earth does not survive. That is better than far more people dying due to a failed world order providing food/ water/ security, shelter. etc.

We have to get back to work !

Losing up to five pct of the world's 7.7 Billion population is no small matter. But endangering 7.7 Billion people will cause more than 5pct to die.
IF everyone stays home indefinitely we will all die.
viruses donít just mutate en masse as a less virulent form. This isnít plague incorporated on your IPad, itís real life. Nature quashes weakness.
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Old 16th May 2020, 21:25
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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Actually by default most mutations become less virulent. If the virus mutates to be more deadly then simply it kills all of its hosts and that strain dies out with the host. There fore we have seen time and time again that as a virus circulates and mutates it will normally weaken such as happened with Flu, SARS, MERS and H1N1. This could take years though and of course there may be the emergence of a more deadly strain in the meantime, it is likely though that in 20 years time COVID will just be another ordinary virus that is rarely fatal through a mixture of immunity and mutation. Doesn’t help us right now though.
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Old 16th May 2020, 21:40
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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I had no idea how many economists, virologists, immunologists, statisticians, epidemiologists et al we had here.

Anonymous forums always know better than actual experts.

THE one thing I have learned here is that there are several incredibly arrogant, selfish, ignorant, egotistical, opinionated know alls posting.






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Old 16th May 2020, 22:33
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Old 16th May 2020, 23:03
  #60 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by RAD_ALT_ALIVE View Post
In April alone, 75 Australians lost their lives on the roads of this nation. Should we then ban cars and driving?

Influenza kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people annually around the world. The COVID mortality numbers are slowly reducing and may not reach the upper end of the fluís deaths.
I think you may have forgotten that all the 'routine' deaths are that - routine. People have adjusted to Flu deaths and Road deaths and Cancer deaths and Smoking deaths - what they are NOT used to is a new virus that can have deadly consequences, has many (as yet) unkknown long term damages to the body and, given the uncertainty, when people are dying of it - it is usally not possible for the family to be with the person - or they are swathed in plastic.

Humans are inbuilt to be wary of new threats and, until this one is understood, will remain so. Not least as the virus can be passed on asymptomatically with neither party realising the risk. Please do volunteer to find out how that works.

Whilst it is true that most people who are dying are the elderly who may have had 1~5 years of life left, you have to consider how it would be for your parents, uncles, aunts etc. to be one of those? For people of other ages, if they have asthma, or are diabetic, or undergoing cancer treatment in their 30s or 40s - if they catch the virus then their chances of living are slim. There are already documents on people of middle age who have been ill for six weeks and just crawling back from it - how will their long term health play out? A few children have contracted a specific and highly unusual further illness. Would you like your family to experiment with that?

If I have been blunt it is because I work with the funeral trade in the UK so I do understand what I am talking about as I have lost count of the Covid19 deaths I have dealt with in the last six weeks.

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