Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Time for a reality Check

Old 20th Jun 2020, 09:47
  #461 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
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Originally Posted by Traffic_Is_Er_Was View Post
Most modern aircraft utilise HEPA filters in the aircon system. They'll filter out virtually all bacteria and viruses. Look at the facts. It seems most transmission is by contact transfer, rather than aerosol. Most pax stay in their seats. They don't come into contact with many other pax while actually on the aircraft. They use disposable single use cutlery, cups etc. They don't touch many things in the aircraft. They tend to only come in contact with their own personal belongings. Contrast that with a cruise ship. Elevators, hand rails, tables, chairs, doors, large communal (and shared) eating facilities. multiple communal touch points, mass gatherings. It's no surprise it goes through a ship load of people so quickly.
Nah! Recent scientific studies of transmissions are indicating that being in close proximity to an infected person for 15 mins or more poses a significant risk of infection. So if the passengers next to or near you are infectious simply breathing in their exhalations or talking near your face would be sufficient. Last time I checked passengers werenít exhaling directly into tubes going straight to the HEPA filters or did I miss something? The only way to not catch it in a cramped B737 in economy for a 4-5 hour flight is for those near you to not have it!

So weíre back to a vaccine, no infections on board or an anti-viral that radically reduces the severity of Covid19. Anything else is wishful thinking or airline CEO PR spin and propaganda!!
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Old 20th Jun 2020, 09:52
  #462 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
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Originally Posted by Stick Flying View Post
In what way? A lot of virus's are capable of causing irreparable damage to the lungs. This gent wasn't quite so lucky with the influenza virus (the very one we don't lockdown over). He did require a double lung transplant.

​​​​​​https://www.today.com/health/man-nee...ng-flu-t169952
In what way? That is a long, long time to be crook. And he is an airman like most of us here. So, not high on the usual risk factors.

Sobering, as with your link.
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Old 20th Jun 2020, 10:17
  #463 (permalink)  
 
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Comparing an aircraft to a cruise ship is like chalk and cheese, sure if someone sneezes all over you repeatedly while on an aircraft your probably highly likely to contract a virus if they have one, however the dry cabin air environment is extremely hostile to most viruses, a cruise ship however is a humid cesspit of a breeding ground for viruses, just look at their record with Nora virus outbreaks over the years (Gastro), and COVID just proved it in the outbreaks. Low ventilation, humid areas, basically a luxury prison environment. I’d much rather take a chance on an aircraft than a cruise ship with a known COVID case on board.
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Old 20th Jun 2020, 10:34
  #464 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pearly White View Post
China's domestic capacity is now running at 90% of 2019 figure, about to increase to 96%. Load Factors still low, though
Itís still a respectable 62%. So not around the usual average load factor of 80% but considering where they were in January/February thatís not so bad.

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Old 20th Jun 2020, 10:35
  #465 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Traffic_Is_Er_Was View Post
Look at the facts. It seems most transmission is by contact transfer, rather than aerosol. Most pax stay in their seats. They don't come into contact with many other pax while actually on the aircraft. They use disposable single use cutlery, cups etc. They don't touch many things in the aircraft that other people might touch. They tend to only come in contact with their own personal belongings. Contrast that with a cruise ship. Elevators, hand rails, tables, chairs, doors, large communal (and shared) eating facilities. multiple communal touch points, mass gatherings. It's no surprise it goes through a ship load of people so quickly.
SARS transmission on aircraft

Hmm.

Self-check and/or bag drop screens. Common touch point.

normal check in, Iím infected, hand my ID to the check in staffer. They get my germs. I get my boarding pass; they pass my germs to others.
i touch the tray at security. They touch the tray. Others touch the tray.

My passport goes thru a scanning machine or a staffer where a bunch of other passports have or will go through.

my boarding pass gets handled by the lounge staffer when I go to the FF lounge, who then handles other peopleís who in turn handle theirs again.

my boarding pass gets handled by the gate scanner person. Or if I do it myself it probably touches the screen. Staffers hands or the screen then touches other peopleís boarding passes.

my boaring pass gets handled by the CSM when I board. They handle more after me.

i maybe open the locker because someone else closed it; or I close it because itís now obviously full. Someone maybe moves my bag in order to try squeeze theirs into the overhead bin, they are now infected.

i touch the seats as I wander down the aisle to use the toilet, because I need the top corner of the aisle seatís seat back to help me down the aisle. Someone else touches them too. Touch the door handle, the door, the lock mechanism.

ive touched seat back IFE screens, or tables or arm rests or call lights or air vents or seat belts. Someone else then touches them.


Yeah. Very limited contact points in an aircraft or journey by air.



less than a cruise ship? Yeah maybe. But by no means insignificant.
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Old 21st Jun 2020, 04:43
  #466 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
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Originally Posted by Car RAMROD View Post
Hmm.

Self-check and/or bag drop screens. Common touch point.

normal check in, Iím infected, hand my ID to the check in staffer. They get my germs. I get my boarding pass; they pass my germs to others.
i touch the tray at security. They touch the tray. Others touch the tray.

My passport goes thru a scanning machine or a staffer where a bunch of other passports have or will go through.

my boarding pass gets handled by the lounge staffer when I go to the FF lounge, who then handles other peopleís who in turn handle theirs again.

my boarding pass gets handled by the gate scanner person. Or if I do it myself it probably touches the screen. Staffers hands or the screen then touches other peopleís boarding passes.

my boaring pass gets handled by the CSM when I board. They handle more after me.

i maybe open the locker because someone else closed it; or I close it because itís now obviously full. Someone maybe moves my bag in order to try squeeze theirs into the overhead bin, they are now infected.

i touch the seats as I wander down the aisle to use the toilet, because I need the top corner of the aisle seatís seat back to help me down the aisle. Someone else touches them too. Touch the door handle, the door, the lock mechanism.

ive touched seat back IFE screens, or tables or arm rests or call lights or air vents or seat belts. Someone else then touches them.


Yeah. Very limited contact points in an aircraft or journey by air.



less than a cruise ship? Yeah maybe. But by no means insignificant.

And yet....about as many airport clusters as there are supermarket ones....
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Old 21st Jun 2020, 05:50
  #467 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Car RAMROD View Post
Hmm.

Self-check and/or bag drop screens. Common touch point.

normal check in, Iím infected, hand my ID to the check in staffer. They get my germs. I get my boarding pass; they pass my germs to others.
i touch the tray at security. They touch the tray. Others touch the tray.

My passport goes thru a scanning machine or a staffer where a bunch of other passports have or will go through.

my boarding pass gets handled by the lounge staffer when I go to the FF lounge, who then handles other peopleís who in turn handle theirs again.

my boarding pass gets handled by the gate scanner person. Or if I do it myself it probably touches the screen. Staffers hands or the screen then touches other peopleís boarding passes.

my boaring pass gets handled by the CSM when I board. They handle more after me.

i maybe open the locker because someone else closed it; or I close it because itís now obviously full. Someone maybe moves my bag in order to try squeeze theirs into the overhead bin, they are now infected.

i touch the seats as I wander down the aisle to use the toilet, because I need the top corner of the aisle seatís seat back to help me down the aisle. Someone else touches them too. Touch the door handle, the door, the lock mechanism.

ive touched seat back IFE screens, or tables or arm rests or call lights or air vents or seat belts. Someone else then touches them.


Yeah. Very limited contact points in an aircraft or journey by air.



less than a cruise ship? Yeah maybe. But by no means insignificant.
Im no infectious disease expert, but wouldnít basic hygiene techniques pretty much cover all this. Regular use of hand sanitiser onboard, wear a mask, regularly wipe down things like phones, handles etc, avoid touching your face, rubbing eyes etc.

other things like contactless checkin and boarding using phones?

None of this is rocket science, the biggest hurdle is apathy and the more our isolated states create a false sense of security, the more apathetic people become and the more isolated we need to be. At some point we need to be able to live with this virus (and viruses to come) and not hide from them. Itís going to take a lot of ingrained behavioural change to do that.
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Old 21st Jun 2020, 07:58
  #468 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
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Originally Posted by Potsie Weber View Post
Im no infectious disease expert, but wouldn’t basic hygiene techniques pretty much cover all this. Regular use of hand sanitiser onboard, wear a mask, regularly wipe down things like phones, handles etc, avoid touching your face, rubbing eyes etc.

other things like contactless checkin and boarding using phones?

I would agree.

all my previous post was was comparing a few touch-points in a pane to a cruise ship. Just because it’s a plane doesn’t mean there’s a negligible amount of potential contact transfer points, that was my point.

basic hygiene should apply everywhere, ship, supermarket, servo, plane etc
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Old 21st Jun 2020, 09:54
  #469 (permalink)  
 
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I never said there were no touch points, I just said your exposure to them is much less. You are in the aircraft for hours. You are on a ship for days. As to touch points prior to boarding? Same as in the rest of life external to the airport. Once on board though? As to the chances of the a person near you having COVID on the aircraft?? How many people have traveled by air to and in Australia in the past 4-5 months? And yet when a case is identified, and overwhelmingly the person has recently arrived from overseas, there has been zero transmission to anyone else on the aircraft. How many airlines have been brought to their knees by rampant COVID infections raging through the flight crews?
As to the "reality check", I bought a pen at an airport newsagent the other day. I picked up the pen from a container on the shelf (who knows who touched it before me), I carried it over and passed it to the cashier, who took it from me and scanned the price. I then went to pay with some coins, but was refused as "we don't accept cash at the moment". I said why not? She said, 'because we don't know where it's been". I said '"in the same hands as the pen you just accepted from me." That did not compute.
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Old 21st Jun 2020, 10:08
  #470 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
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I sincerely hope that we are not producing a generation of germophobes, where constant and total sanitisation is the goal.
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Old 21st Jun 2020, 10:16
  #471 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ruprecht View Post
I sincerely hope that we are not producing a generation of germophobes, where constant and total sanitisation is the goal.
It saddens me greatly to point this out to everyone, and in this one respect I have huge sympathy for all employers, but I strongly suspect it will be ambulance chasing lawyers that lead the front on the germophobe issue. Much like 9/11 was to security, I fear Kung Flu (thanks to the Don for that great one ) will create the same rivers of gold to the medical profession...
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Old 21st Jun 2020, 10:26
  #472 (permalink)  
 
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Slats11.

any updates?
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Old 23rd Jun 2020, 12:15
  #473 (permalink)  
 
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I think all those saying aircraft are safer than ships in terms of hygiene are forgetting the flight in 1980 that had half the passengers and all the flight crew go down with food poising after eating the fish. I believe an ex Airforce pilot travelling as a passenger had to land it assisted by a stewardess.
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Old 23rd Jun 2020, 12:18
  #474 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ozbiggles View Post
I think all those saying aircraft are safer than ships in terms of hygiene are forgetting the flight in 1980 that had half the passengers and all the flight crew go down with food poising after eating the fish. I believe an ex Airforce pilot travelling as a passenger had to land it assisted by a stewardess.
^^I think Iíve seen this documentary
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Old 23rd Jun 2020, 12:23
  #475 (permalink)  
 
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I thought it was air crash investigators or seconds to disaster? I believe it was the salmon moose?(sic)
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Old 23rd Jun 2020, 15:35
  #476 (permalink)  
 
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And to think QF pilots were complaining about night credit hours a few weeks ago.
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Old 24th Jun 2020, 05:59
  #477 (permalink)  
 
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Over Macho Grande? "You never get over Macho Grande!"
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Old 24th Jun 2020, 13:44
  #478 (permalink)  
 
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https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...threshold.html

Here is a bit more suggesting you don’t need 60% immune to achieve herd immunity. This may be why the epidemic has burnt out in most countries a bit earlier than the earlier mathematical models predicted.
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Old 24th Jun 2020, 13:46
  #479 (permalink)  
 
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So USA cases are getting back up towards their March-April peak. They stopped decreasing 30-40 days ago, and started increasing again 20 days ago.
In face of this increase, deaths continue to decrease. Despite increased recognition now of the phenomenon of "unreported deaths" in nursing homes etc.
So deaths are becoming disconnected from cases.
Has the virus changed? No.
Have we discovered an effective treatment? No.
So why is the virus becoming less lethal?




Look at the recent USA data is saying-are
1. Steadily increasing numbers tested
2. % tests positive is constant for last 6 weeks.
3. Therefore number of cases rising
4. Fatalities dropping steadily – with no hint yet that fatalities are increasing with increased cases (so called "2nd wave") So fatalities (numerator) dropping as number of cases (denominator) increases.
5. Therefore we are finding more of the mild cases with more testing. These mild cases were present in March and April. They just were not found amongst the chaos and with the very limited testing available then.
6. This has burnt through the tri state area, and numbers are falling. Dramatically. If this had years to run, tri-state infections would still be high.

As we find more cases, the apparent mortality rate drops. The infection mortality rate in 25 studies is way under 1% and closer to 0.5%.

Data from Europe is the same.

The average flu mortality is in the order of 0.08-0.1%. Across a population. But it is almost zero in younger people, and is a few % in the elderly.

A recent met-analysis reviewed 25 studies and came up with a best estimate IFR for COFID of about 0.60% (although there were limitations in this meta-analysis suggesting the true figure is a bit lower).
The CDC “symptomatic CFR” is around 0.4%
But both of these figures are population averages and do not take account of age. Which is like saying that each Australian has (on average) 1 testis and 1 ovary and ignoring the importance of gender. The average is mathematically true, but almost meaningless.

A recent Swedish study looked at case fatality rates and infection fatality rates
The CFR was 26%. This was 432 deaths from 1,667 cases. Sounds pretty bad.
However they estimates that for each diagnosed case, there were an additional 44 undiagnosed cases.
This 44 x increase in the denominator decreased the IFR to 0.6% overall.
Using a single cut-off of 69, the IFR < 69 was 0.1% (this is skewed downwards by all the young and middle aged) and the IFR > 70 was 4.3% (this is skewed up by those in their 80's and 90's).









Last edited by slats11; 24th Jun 2020 at 13:58.
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Old 24th Jun 2020, 13:53
  #480 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
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Originally Posted by airdualbleedfault View Post
I don't give a fig what they say about the aircraft air con, hepa filters etc, if I had a dollar for every time I got sick after air travel I wouldn't have to work in the 5hit show called aviation these days
Ironically I've never had to call in sick for a duty. And I've flown many a time. with sponsors onboard.

Last edited by Stick Flying; 24th Jun 2020 at 18:26.
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