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Time for a reality Check

Old 9th Jun 2020, 21:55
  #441 (permalink)  
jvr
 
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Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
The other positive news is that it increasingly appears NOT necessary for 60-70% of the population to be infected / immune to develop herd immunity and for the pandemic to burn out. All over the world, we are not seeing a significant 2nd wave as social restrictions are relaxed. Several European countries (e.g. Austria) have now relaxed long enough and have sufficient public health capability that they should be seeing a 2nd wave if it was there.

This figure of 60-70% was a core assumption from early days. This figure underpinned much modelling which has influenced government policy.

No country has close to 60% (NY city may have 25%, maybe).

We don't know why we are seeing this striking disconnect between theory and reality. More recent and more sensitive antibody tests suggest it may relate to prior coronavirus infection (there is a whole family of coronaviruses , and they are a relatively common cause of the common cold). So while we have not been exposed to this coronavirus before, many of us have been exposed to other coronaviruses which may be "close enough" to confer immunity.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ation-immunity
Lombardy seems to have a close to 60% infection rate.
oddly enough among those in the medical professions it seems to be only half of that.
in terms of (herd) immunity Quatar seems to be the country to keep an eye on.
the number of infected is steadily rising and they are testing abundantly.
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Old 9th Jun 2020, 22:31
  #442 (permalink)  
 
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The epidemiologists are still making sense of all the contradictory data. The Guardian article above points to some of these contradictions. again, this is one very strange virus.

lombardy got slammed and locked down relatively late. There was extraordinary people movement between Wuhan and North Italy. China Southern alone had 3 direct flights each day between these 2 cities. Wuhan provided many workers in Italian textile factories.

Other places have learned from that and locked down much earlier, and the epidemic seems to be dying out with a much lower % of population infected.

I suspect the western government thinking went something like
1. China. 3000 elderly people dying in a country of 1.5 billion. Meh. Not too bad.
2. Few smaller clusters in SE Asian countries. Ok. Looks manageable.
3. Iran. Looks bad, but who really knows (or cares) what is happening with Iran.
4. Lombardy. $&@#
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 00:37
  #443 (permalink)  
 
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Victoria reporting 8 new cases of the Virus today....including one from someone who was at the BLM CBD protest.
(Source, ABC news, Vic health officer briefing)
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 01:22
  #444 (permalink)  
 
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I'm curious, does anyone know where or how this notion of "travelling in aeroplanes is relatively low risk of contracting a virus" That's news to me, it's always been a given certainty, particularly during flu season among flight crew. the very reason the company paid for the flu jab. The media reported, airliners have the same filters as hospital operating theatres, also news to me, perhaps in the new dreamliner, even if that was the case operating theatres don't have 100 plus people in them several times a day
I thought I'd raise it because I can't see how an airliner is any different to a cruise ship..
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 01:31
  #445 (permalink)  
 
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It’s not in my opinion, it is a high stakes PR gamble by the CEOs to fill all the seats. If the aircraft ‘medical grade’ filters are so good why are they not being rapidly put on all forms of public transport, buildings, shipsand being flogged to home owners as the miracle cure? I can see it ending in tears.

Better to have been honest and concentrate on lowering the risk as much as possible and letting people make their own decisions than use some unproven theory as far as I can tell. I mean if they are that good why aren’t we all flying 24/7 to stay in a safe, wholesome filtered air environment?

I read those aircraft manuals every 6 months before sim. I don’t recall ever reading something about ‘medical grade’ in the pressurisation or air conditioning systems...but I could well have missed it!

Last edited by ozbiggles; 11th Jun 2020 at 01:42.
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 02:28
  #446 (permalink)  
 
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IATA: Briefing paper; Cabin air quality– Risk of communicable diseases......

An interesting point and not a lot of definition on the matter/ just narrative and sound bytes- ex those that have made comment in the media here.

Link to a IATA Briefing Note (of Jan 2018) here:https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...C-SVQ711j7OTI_

Rgds
S28- BE
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 02:56
  #447 (permalink)  
 
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That’s a good reference S28. The theory is sound (ish). Once the virus gets into the system I would be confident it doesn’t come out. My problem with it all is the nasty little virus has to go past a lot of people in close proximity to get to the system. There might even be an argument the flow of air will help energise the moisture to move even more than it would if it was just expelled from a carrier. I don’t know. I see it as another defence layer but there seems to be a push by CEOs to suggest it is more than that.
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 03:18
  #448 (permalink)  
 
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Indeed- 'it' (the Hull) is a sealed vessel for a reason..... and the primary function is/was not airborne filtration/Disease Control.........

Rgds
S28

Last edited by Section28- BE; 11th Jun 2020 at 03:27. Reason: added- 'Disease Control'.....
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 05:16
  #449 (permalink)  
 
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It doesn't matter how well the cabin air is filtered if somebody sneezes on you - or on themselves and then contaminates the cabin...
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 10:08
  #450 (permalink)  
 
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"The Federal Aviation Administration and major manufacturers have long been aware of the risk of diseases spreading on flights and have sponsored research seeking improvements."

Dated 30 April 2020



https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...a6d_story.html
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 10:24
  #451 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Stickshift3000 View Post
It doesn't matter how well the cabin air is filtered if somebody sneezes on you - or on themselves and then contaminates the cabin...
And given the way the seating works its unlikely anyone is really going to sneeze on you. At worst its the shared arm rest / toilets door handle that would be the hot spots.
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 10:32
  #452 (permalink)  
 
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Anstar have a read of the link Curra posted above yours.
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 23:41
  #453 (permalink)  
 
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Mr 'currawong'- Many thanks for the article.

Rgds
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 04:15
  #454 (permalink)  
 
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China's domestic capacity is now running at 90% of 2019 figure, about to increase to 96%. Load Factors still low, though.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transpo...da9abb9ba3aee8
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 11:53
  #455 (permalink)  
 
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China isn't exactly representative of the rest of the world since more decisions in the government-backed Chinese aviation are driven by politics rather than by economics. But all the Orwellian stuff with health codes etc which they do has probably deterred many from non-essential flying.
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 03:52
  #456 (permalink)  
 
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I thought I throw this in reality check.
No booze and face masks on. Bloody hell what next?
I put on a face mask the other day and after 3 breaths I was breathing my own CO2.
It felt like suffocation. Further more research shows it reduces 20% of O2 into your lungs.
Try doing that at a 8000 cabin (it may not be hypoxic) though may give you more fatigue.
It would be panic stations if the rubber jungle fell.


(CNN) — Alcohol sales may have boomed during lockdown, but our return to air travel will be an altogether more sobering experience.
Airlines including Easyjet and KLM in Europe, Delta Air Lines and American Airlines in the United States, and Asia's Virgin Australia, are suspending all or part of their alcoholic drinks service in response to Covid-19.
It's part of a widespread revision of the industry's food and drink service to minimize interaction between crew and passengers and to ensure a safer journey for all.
With face masks already mandatory on pretty much all flights around the world, and new legislation introduced in January 2020 to curb anti-social behavior on flights, it's another in a line of barriers -- literal and legal -- to getting high in the sky.
Many airlines are limiting drink options to water only. As face masks must be kept on other than when passengers are eating and drinking, it's a way of ensuring passengers are lingering over their refreshments for no longer than necessary.
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Old 20th Jun 2020, 07:54
  #457 (permalink)  
 
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Reality check indeed.

"The 43-year-old man, a Vietnam Airlines pilot, was identified as Vietnam’s patient No. 91 of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus, following his diagnosis in mid-March."

"On May 8, it was announced that only ten percent of his lungs were functional"


https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/features...lot/55169.html
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Old 20th Jun 2020, 08:33
  #458 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
Reality check indeed.
In what way? A lot of virus's are capable of causing irreparable damage to the lungs. This gent wasn't quite so lucky with the influenza virus (the very one we don't lockdown over). He did require a double lung transplant.

​​​​​​https://www.today.com/health/man-nee...ng-flu-t169952
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Old 20th Jun 2020, 09:28
  #459 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ozbiggles View Post
It’s not in my opinion, it is a high stakes PR gamble by the CEOs to fill all the seats. If the aircraft ‘medical grade’ filters are so good why are they not being rapidly put on all forms of public transport, buildings, shipsand being flogged to home owners as the miracle cure? I can see it ending in tears.

Better to have been honest and concentrate on lowering the risk as much as possible and letting people make their own decisions than use some unproven theory as far as I can tell. I mean if they are that good why aren’t we all flying 24/7 to stay in a safe, wholesome filtered air environment?

I read those aircraft manuals every 6 months before sim. I don’t recall ever reading something about ‘medical grade’ in the pressurisation or air conditioning systems...but I could well have missed it!
Most modern aircraft utilise HEPA filters in the aircon system. They'll filter out virtually all bacteria and viruses. Look at the facts. It seems most transmission is by contact transfer, rather than aerosol. Most pax stay in their seats. They don't come into contact with many other pax while actually on the aircraft. They use disposable single use cutlery, cups etc. They don't touch many things in the aircraft that other people might touch. They tend to only come in contact with their own personal belongings. Contrast that with a cruise ship. Elevators, hand rails, tables, chairs, doors, large communal (and shared) eating facilities. multiple communal touch points, mass gatherings. It's no surprise it goes through a ship load of people so quickly.
SARS transmission on aircraft

Last edited by Traffic_Is_Er_Was; 20th Jun 2020 at 09:50.
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Old 20th Jun 2020, 09:45
  #460 (permalink)  
 
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I don't give a fig what they say about the aircraft air con, hepa filters etc, if I had a dollar for every time I got sick after air travel I wouldn't have to work in the 5hit show called aviation these days
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