Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Time for a reality Check

Old 8th Jun 2020, 00:59
  #421 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: adelaide, Australia
Posts: 468
Not sure about the "massive" bit but certainly you would need to see a considerable increase of cases to justify prolonging the lockdown. Problem is it spreads so easily. Experts say each infected person gives it to 2.5 others without isolating. Sydney and Melbourne will be the real test . Other states have got well on top of it now so unlikely to be an outbreak among them unless their are some benign carriers out there we no nothing about. Have to wait and see.
mostlytossas is offline  
Old 8th Jun 2020, 02:05
  #422 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
Location: The Swan Downunder
Posts: 575
The move back to some sort of normal must proceed with caution. We don't need huge numbers of the population to get sick to bring the nation down, we only need the right handful. So unless you know how to operate the national power grid, a water treatment plant and heavy machinery, proceed with caution.
The shift supervisor says if his team of 12 all aged over 55 gets sick at the same time, "EVERYTHING STOPS"
Xeptu is offline  
Old 8th Jun 2020, 02:33
  #423 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: australia
Posts: 706
From earlier thoughts could almost end up pythonesque!

"Holding a rally Saturday"
"Sorry, all public places/parkes/transport closed"
"OK Sunday"
"Nah, all closed"
"Monday then"
"Closed"
"So what day WOULDN'T everything be closed?"
"Well....what day WOULDN'T you hold a rally?"....and so on
galdian is online now  
Old 8th Jun 2020, 03:13
  #424 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 51
Originally Posted by brokenagain View Post
This. Governments around Australia have made a rod for their own backs, unless we see a massive spike in cases in the next few weeks, they will have no reason to continue with restrictions. And any punishments handed out for breaching any of the COVID restrictions from now on surely won’t be enforceable, considering the precedent set.
Not necessarily.
One Melbourne man managed to get into Queensland last week and the Health minister and Deputy Premier (same person) argued that alone is reason to keep the borders closed.
Arguably then, one public case from the protest that morphs into a dozen or a hundred or (pick a number) is enough to close the State down again. However I suspect with an election looming, the Qld Government will deny any causal link and the state will continue along the present path.
C441 is online now  
Old 8th Jun 2020, 03:15
  #425 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 382
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/pol...04-p54zeb.html

Looks like a decision on border dates could come this week, if this article is to be believed.

makes sense with next to zero community transmission in VIC and NSW.
ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE is offline  
Old 8th Jun 2020, 12:35
  #426 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Australia
Posts: 896
How can she justify keeping the borders shut when she is happy to see 20000 plus jobseekers holding hands in the CBD?
ozbiggles is offline  
Old 8th Jun 2020, 13:10
  #427 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: australia
Posts: 706
Originally Posted by ozbiggles View Post
How can she justify keeping the borders shut when she is happy to see 20000 plus jobseekers holding hands in the CBD?
Guessing she's planning on a re-election campaign of "...I kept the pox out, you all survived. you MUST vote for me in appreciation..." or similar.
Not sure if the businesses she send to the wall with extended border closure will necessarily agree with her assertion.

However I'm sure as she's a poli she'll smell the breeze - and borders will be open well before her current September pronouncement.

Whatever happens expect the Premier P/J Trad experiment of fiscal incompetence will be terminated at the next state election.
Mind you Queenslanders like to experiment with stupidity at times so.......

Cheers

galdian is online now  
Old 8th Jun 2020, 22:04
  #428 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: I prefer to remain north of a direct line BNE-ADL
Age: 45
Posts: 1,133
I’m just flabbergasted at this joke of a situation, what do they want? Elimination? Well your not going to get it! The whole idea was for suppression yet these premiers have somehow become elimination experts, it ain’t gonna happen the virus will return and as long as it’s at a manageable level that was the whole idea right? State borders should be open or eliminate the states and territories, we should fight this as a nation, not as some seperate tribes, and then we should work on opening the international borders in a staged careful way, country by country. I’m sitting here in QLD with 4 active cases looking at a decimated tourist economy thinking WTF have we done? There could be 10,000 active cases and it still would be fairly safe if you followed basic hygiene practises. Regardless I still think the interstate borders will come down like a house of cards once the first moves.
Angle of Attack is offline  
Old 9th Jun 2020, 00:40
  #429 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Brisvegas
Posts: 2,942
Regardless I still think the interstate borders will come down like a house of cards once the first moves.
That makes no sense, the first have already moved.
Icarus2001 is offline  
Old 9th Jun 2020, 03:00
  #430 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Australia
Posts: 896
What State has changed itís border arrangements Icarus?...just trying to make sense of what you said? In the quote you have it refers to Interstate borders.
ozbiggles is offline  
Old 9th Jun 2020, 04:48
  #431 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sydney
Age: 57
Posts: 469
A sheep in wolves clothing.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....03.20089854v3







This is a meta-analysis of 25 studies looking at the infection fatality rate (IFR). IFR is the mortality rate if you get infected.
This figure is different (and lower) than the case fatality rate (CFR) as the CFR refers to the mortality if you are diagnosed as a a case. To be diagnosed, you have to have symptoms sufficient to take you to a doctor, and you have to qualify for a test, and the test has to come back positive. So, many infections will not get diagnosed, and it is the more serious infections that become cases.
Not surprisingly, the mortality rate among those sick enough to get tested is higher than the fatality rate among all those infected.
Conversely, it is hard to die from a respiratory infection that is not causing symptoms.

The CFRs are easier to measure, but are very difficult to compare as different countries use their limited testing capacity in different ways and so diagnose different cases. So North Italy was only testing the very sick and had a very high CFR. Places that test well people (including well contacts on cruise ships) will have a much higher number of asymptomatic cases and a much lower CFR.

Anyway, the overall IFR in this series was 0.64%.

But this 0.64% average IFR hides a number of things
1. This IFR of 0.64% is for all ages. It likely drops to 0.1% for those less than 70 years.
2. These studies include a number of places where the health system became overloaded. Not surprisingly, those studies skew the IFR upwards. The relevant IFR is likely lower if you live somewhere where the health system is functioning.
3. The serosurvey studies are likely the most accurate, and these studies have much tighter confidence intervals. The IFR in the serosurveys was 0.53% and 0.79% in the non-serosurveys to give the pooled result of 0.64%
4. The pooled IFR for the 12 studies in May (0.56%) was a bit lower than the pooled IFR for the 13 studies done in February, March and April. Again, the overwhelmed systems happened earlier on and the serosurveys are among the more recent studies. The lower IFR in May does not represent some medical advance or new drug. It is that the better studies were in May, and social measures meant health systems were not overwhelmed as had been earlier.

This virus does not kill people very efficiently. However we have zero immunity to this new virus, and it is moderately contagious. It therefore infects a lot of people. And 0.64% of a lot of people is still a lot of people.
slats11 is offline  
Old 9th Jun 2020, 05:25
  #432 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Extreme
Posts: 311
Thumbs up

Dear slats11,
How dare you introduce facts to a rumour network. How dare you.
I ask you to cease and desist.
Only joking. Thanks for the good info.
Shot Nancy is offline  
Old 9th Jun 2020, 05:54
  #433 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sydney
Age: 57
Posts: 469
The other positive news is that it increasingly appears NOT necessary for 60-70% of the population to be infected / immune to develop herd immunity and for the pandemic to burn out. All over the world, we are not seeing a significant 2nd wave as social restrictions are relaxed. Several European countries (e.g. Austria) have now relaxed long enough and have sufficient public health capability that they should be seeing a 2nd wave if it was there.

This figure of 60-70% was a core assumption from early days. This figure underpinned much modelling which has influenced government policy.

No country has close to 60% (NY city may have 25%, maybe).

We don't know why we are seeing this striking disconnect between theory and reality. More recent and more sensitive antibody tests suggest it may relate to prior coronavirus infection (there is a whole family of coronaviruses , and they are a relatively common cause of the common cold). So while we have not been exposed to this coronavirus before, many of us have been exposed to other coronaviruses which may be "close enough" to confer immunity.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ation-immunity

Last edited by slats11; 9th Jun 2020 at 06:13.
slats11 is offline  
Old 9th Jun 2020, 09:20
  #434 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Brisvegas
Posts: 2,942
Ozbiggles...

What State has changed it’s border arrangements Icarus?...just trying to make sense of what you said? In the quote you have it refers to Interstate borders.
NSW and Victoria are "open" now?

https://www.visitnsw.com/travel-info.../travel-alerts

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/travel-r...australia-nbsp
Icarus2001 is offline  
Old 9th Jun 2020, 09:28
  #435 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Timbuktoo
Posts: 72
NSW and Victoria are "open" now?
Their borders were never closed.
brokenagain is online now  
Old 9th Jun 2020, 10:35
  #436 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: back to the land of small pay and big bills
Age: 46
Posts: 1,116
Most respiratory viruses historically mutate and become weaker with time..this one seems to be following the pattern
mattyj is online now  
Old 9th Jun 2020, 12:07
  #437 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Canberra
Posts: 161
slats11

Unfortunately it looks like a 2nd wave is happening in Iran?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-52903443
layman is online now  
Old 9th Jun 2020, 12:11
  #438 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 382
Originally Posted by mattyj View Post
Most respiratory viruses historically mutate and become weaker with time..this one seems to be following the pattern
do you have a source?
ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE is offline  
Old 9th Jun 2020, 12:20
  #439 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sydney
Age: 57
Posts: 469
Possibly. But the Iran data was inaccurate back in March. Who knows if it is more accurate now.

In most countries, this infection has taken off, control measures (of variable degrees) were implemented, and the epidemic slowed right down. Nowhere has close to 60-70% of the population infected, which was theoretically predicted to be necessary to insulate against a 2nd wave. Not Sweden. Not Italy. Not NYC.

So far, most countries are not seeing a significant 2nd wave. But all these populations still have some control measures in place.

I think most countries that appear to have this under control are not 100% back to normal. They are progressively relaxing measures and closely watching what happens. Some measures (kids back to school) are high priority. Others (cinemas) are low.

it seems this can probably be controlled with a sense of balance and compromise. But if you go 100% back to normal with over-crowding, sharing food, religious pilgrimages etc, then a 2nd wave is possible.

Last edited by slats11; 9th Jun 2020 at 12:41.
slats11 is offline  
Old 9th Jun 2020, 17:27
  #440 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 1,913
Although its not Ebola the issue was would it swamp the hospitals??

I've friends in Italy and Spain who have some very grim stories of how close it came in some places there

Once you close down and enforce social distancing it seems to work - but takes 8 weeks to show up in the numbers
Asturias56 is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.