Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Time for a reality Check

Old 22nd May 2020, 05:44
  #281 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Daverb View Post
This is probably the stupidest thing I have ever seen on the internet.
Top marks for dumb.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 12:03
  #282 (permalink)  
 
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True Covid Stats today. 335,000 dead globally which is 1.5% of global deaths this year with most in the over 70s, not even 10% of global disease deaths.

The stats say right now, year to date:
Covid deaths 335,000
Communicable disease deaths 5,073,414
Total deaths 22,986,413
Cancer deaths 3,209,711
Net population growth 31,766,081

Why arenít we worrying about the 4.7m that died of disease that wasnít Covid? Simple, the only reason anyone gives a crap is because rich folks could be affected rather than the poor folks we donít normally care about. The baby boomers like me screw it for the young again. The age factor is a worry as I head in that direction but I would be prepared to take my chance as getting the economy going is vital to protect young peopleís futures and the lives of the many.

I wonder how NZ and Aus will get out of their lockdown. An interesting article here:


Here are the stats right now




[img]blob:https://www.pprune.org/31aeae39-35d6-48ef-8faf-be02e5e26736[/img]

Last edited by Bluffontheriver123; 22nd May 2020 at 12:20.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 21:56
  #283 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bluffontheriver123 View Post
Why arenít we worrying about the 4.7m that died of disease that wasnít Covid?
[img]blob:https://www.pprune.org/31aeae39-35d6-48ef-8faf-be02e5e26736[/img]
Because those deaths don't fill up the ICU beds in a number of weeks, leaving people to die in the streets?

How many times does this need to be explained to you? FFS
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Old 22nd May 2020, 22:25
  #284 (permalink)  
 
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Because those deaths don't fill up the ICU beds in a number of weeks, leaving people to die in the streets?
You mean like all of the full ICU beds in Australia?
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Old 22nd May 2020, 22:31
  #285 (permalink)  
 
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Because those deaths don't fill up the ICU beds in a number of weeks, leaving people to die in the streets?
how would you know..? The ICU beds in Africa are probably full all year every day! His argument was that itís only rich first world older people driving this crisis..youíre essentially proving his point because you only care about overburdened first world hospitals when we know for a fact that the hospitals of third world countries are always full
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Old 22nd May 2020, 22:44
  #286 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.health.gov.au/news/model...fect-australia

Since this is the Australia forum, not Africa and Middle East.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 23:23
  #287 (permalink)  
 
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QLD govt thought buying Virgin was a good idea. Why on earth should we believe any of the rubbish that comes out of their mouths with regard to border closures?
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Old 23rd May 2020, 00:49
  #288 (permalink)  
 
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Domestic travel restrictions need to be lifted

Time to start lobbying all levels of government ladies and gents! That means you, write an email to your state representative- itís not hard - do it now, your livelihoods all depend on it.

States are worried about the risk of an unknown infected case travelling to another state and then transmitting it. Do some simple maths on that...

Chance of a few unknown cases in say NSW with a population of 8.092 million = 3/8,092,000 = 0.0000037073
Chance of those few unknown cases in NSW travelling to say QLD say 1 million travel from NSW to QLD normally = 1,000,000/8,092,000 = 0.1235788433
Chance of the unknown infected case, transmitting it....well that we donít know, but look at what happened in Rockhampton, an infected person worked in a nursing home for 2.5 weeks whilst infected and it didnít transmit to anyone else. So letís say its 50/50..

So 0.0000037073 x 0.1235788433 x 0.5 = 0.00000022907
or 0.000022907% chance of an unknown infected case transmitting Covid to someone else in another state if the domestic travel restrictions were to be lifted.

And what are the chances of your job, the aviation industry being decimated with the travel restrictions in place now - well thatís almost 100%

Iím happy to correct any assumptions on those figures but youíll find it wonít change the risk much.

So if youíre at home now, sitting on your arse, feeling sorry for yourself because your plane isnít flying - send some emails to some state politicians now!
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Old 23rd May 2020, 01:11
  #289 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CaptainInsaneO View Post
Time to start lobbying all levels of government ladies and gents! That means you, write an email to your state representative- itís not hard - do it now, your livelihoods all depend on it.

States are worried about the risk of an unknown infected case travelling to another state and then transmitting it. Do some simple maths on that...

Chance of a few unknown cases in say NSW with a population of 8.092 million = 3/8,092,000 = 0.0000037073
Chance of those few unknown cases in NSW travelling to say QLD say 1 million travel from NSW to QLD normally = 1,000,000/8,092,000 = 0.1235788433
Chance of the unknown infected case, transmitting it....well that we donít know, but look at what happened in Rockhampton, an infected person worked in a nursing home for 2.5 weeks whilst infected and it didnít transmit to anyone else. So letís say its 50/50..

So 0.0000037073 x 0.1235788433 x 0.5 = 0.00000022907
or 0.000022907% chance of an unknown infected case transmitting Covid to someone else in another state if the domestic travel restrictions were to be lifted.

And what are the chances of your job, the aviation industry being decimated with the travel restrictions in place now - well thatís almost 100%

Iím happy to correct any assumptions on those figures but youíll find it wonít change the risk much.

So if youíre at home now, sitting on your arse, feeling sorry for yourself because your plane isnít flying - send some emails to some state politicians now!
Considering there are daily increases in Covid -19 cases in NSW it is 100% possible there are unknown cases in NSW. That is why they are still testing.

Sweden and USA are examples of not shutting down boarders. About 1/3 (500,000) of all USA cases have had a result, of these resolved cases around 25% (100,000) have resulted in death.

There is no evidence of any Covid -19 transmissions happening on an aircraft! But most would agree it is highly probable it has happened.

Open the borders - but have a plan, but not just a self interest one.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 02:37
  #290 (permalink)  
 
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One act alone will have RPT flights commence into Queensland, that will be RPT flights between NSW and VIC. And flights between any other capital and NZ. They'll soon realise they can't play politics when faced with reality.

I note that the border between NSW & QLD is not closed, you can still cross it. You will be asked to isolate on the QLD side though.

What would be really good would be an evidence based approach to the modelling. I'd like to know what it was based on? The response to SARS, H1N1 etc?
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Old 23rd May 2020, 06:46
  #291 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by novice110 View Post
Elimination is a costly goal.
Suppression has always been the supposed strategy in Australia. Elimination was NEVER the stated goal. It’s still not according to the AHPPC, which includes the CMOs of each state. A number of those state CMOs, however, when they run back to their own Premiers, seem to be suggesting that local elimination is now the goal. If that is the case, I wish those premiers would have the guts to come out and state it publicly to give the rest of the nation affected by that decision some sense of clarity around our futures. We may not be their constituents but the decisions they are making have national effects.

Politics and ego have got in the way now with two states facing elections in the next 10 months. Palaszczuk has backed herself into a corner. Neither she nor McCormack can back down now without looking weak. Berejiklian has overplayed her hand. The best thing she can do is quieten down for a couple of weeks and give the others some room to manoeuvre.

The states are in no rush to do anything until Jobkeeper runs out. The feds are paying all the money and the states are getting to make all the decisions. It’s a zero risk strategy for them.

Never stand between a Premier and a bucket of money - Paul Keating
Reality check? If the borders stay closed the tourism industry (including airlines) is rooted. Expect glacial pace until Jobkeeper runs out or until the first domino falls. That will only occur as a result of lobbying by local tourism industries, not external pressure from NSW.

Last edited by DirectAnywhere; 23rd May 2020 at 07:03.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 07:31
  #292 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by directimped View Post
Because those deaths don't fill up the ICU beds in a number of weeks, leaving people to die in the streets?

How many times does this need to be explained to you? FFS

And we call this statement grown up? "ICU is full, put them in the streets". Don't think so somehow. FFS
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Old 23rd May 2020, 10:02
  #293 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by directimped View Post
Because those deaths don't fill up the ICU beds in a number of weeks, leaving people to die in the streets?

How many times does this need to be explained to you? FFS
https://www.health.gov.au/news/healt...d-case-numbers

You mean the 5 people currently occupying ICU beds in Australia right now?
Or the 35 TOTAL case in hospital, over flowing our hospitals right now?

FFS!
Stop believing the MEDIA HYPE and Hysteria.
The experts are not in agreement.
The scientists arenít in agreement.
The Politicians are not ďin lock stepĒ as one poster categorically stated 250 posts ago.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 13:07
  #294 (permalink)  
 
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The approach taken now is absolute madness. My time occupying this earth, leading up to this, we've dealt with some stuff, but the economy has NEVER been shut down like this. The economy that funds hospitals, education and welfare. When this is all over, when the Stockholm morons look back on the damage the've caused, it'll be seen as the biggest over reaction in modern times. Embarrassing. Stupid and devastating to the poor bastards that have to pay for this in the long run. The millenials will say, is there anything else you can possibly do to [email protected] us over any further.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 22:24
  #295 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bodie1 View Post
The approach taken now is absolute madness. My time occupying this earth, leading up to this, we've dealt with some stuff, but the economy has NEVER been shut down like this. The economy that funds hospitals, education and welfare. When this is all over, when the Stockholm morons look back on the damage the've caused, it'll be seen as the biggest over reaction in modern times. Embarrassing. Stupid and devastating to the poor bastards that have to pay for this in the long run. The millenials will say, is there anything else you can possibly do to [email protected] us over any further.
I think slowly people are waking up to the disaster this has become. Take out the the Ruby Princess disaster and not stopping Chinese flights earlier and we probably wouldnít have had 50 deaths. As the US General said in Vietnam we had to burn the village to save it. IMO history will judge this as the greatest failure of public policy ever in this country, the people who have taken the hit are self employed and small and medium businesses. The politicians and bureaucrats have no skin in the game and continued on their merry way with full pay and conditions.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 22:56
  #296 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
I think slowly people are waking up to the disaster this has become. Take out the the Ruby Princess disaster and not stopping Chinese flights earlier and we probably wouldnít have had 50 deaths.
Ok, we have had just over 100 deaths. Thoughts with those affected but donít forget this is still an incredibly low number compared to other countries in thanks largely to a great effort by the National Government approach.

There could have easily been 10 more poorly handled Ruby Princess types of events but there werenít.

The key now is for people to remember there will be clusters and mini outbreaks in the future. This is a way of life now, donít let every blip on the radar reported by our ďwonderfulĒ media destroy our overall morale- we now need to move forward before the economic shockwaves destroy more lives than the virus itself.
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Old 24th May 2020, 02:30
  #297 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Green.Dot
Ok, we have had just over 100 deaths. Thoughts with those affected but don’t forget this is still an incredibly low number compared to other countries in thanks largely to a great effort by the National Government approach.
Mainly helped by the Viral strain doing the rounds of Oz/NZ/Pacific is a far more benign variant allegedly! And the population density is far lower, even in the cities!
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Old 24th May 2020, 04:07
  #298 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
Mainly helped by the Viral strain doing the rounds of Oz/NZ/Pacific is a far more benign variant allegedly! And the population density is far lower, even in the cities!
If the virus was introduced by travellers from Iran, Italy, China and the US how is it a 'more benign' variant? Allegation or not what is the source for this and what is the basis for claiming that this 'mainly' helped to keep the number of deaths low?

The government of Japan has kept the number of deaths low, no mean feat in a country of 126 million with high population density.
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Old 24th May 2020, 04:22
  #299 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jnr380 View Post
A relative of mine died in the States because of COVID. Make no mistake, this is a very powerful virus and to think that itís all over is a joke.

Yes we have flattened the curve, but what does that mean? It means that theyre is able to accomodate you in hospital if/when you catch it, it does not mean we have beaten the Virus.

2 weeks is the incubation period, so hence the outlook for the UK......Just take a look at Sweden with their soft control measures, now if you catch the virus there, there is a 42% you will die. Two weeks ago that was sitting in the high 70ís (%)
your percentage is misleading, 42% was on the closed cases (meaning with an outcome), compared to the total cases of infections is not much different than other coutries, and Sweden didnt lockdown.
im sorry for your loss but that doesnt make the virus more powerful or your argument either.

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Old 24th May 2020, 04:27
  #300 (permalink)  
 
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Early assumptions of extraordinary SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness and lethality have proven fallacious. Some are already calling the coronavirus lockdown “the Greatest Mistake in History.”

here is the rest of the article, i think worth reading!


http://www.internationalaffairs.org....reat-lockdown/
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