Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Time for a reality Check

Old 19th May 2020, 10:09
  #241 (permalink)  
 
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Mattyj I am sorry we are still suggesting the elderly are somehow less important. The reason care homes got infected in the first place varies from country to country, but in NZ the ONE thing they did was to close the borders before the number of infected people exceeded track and trace capabilities. That is why NZ in the main had clusters, groups of infected people. A party was implicated in one. Once a care home has one infection it is indeed like a party in terms of risk to other residents. So in NZ you cant draw any conclusions from the care home situation. Thank a few nameless people who made the government wake up in the nick of time ....and then take the credit.

In the UK they didnt close the borders so the virus ran amok by early March. By the time of lockdown they were at or nearly at the peak due solely to social distancing; lockdown merely increased the rate of resolution. However the politicians panicked, converting one exhibition hall in London into a 4000 patient facility that never had more then 50 patients. They told all hospitals to empty beds no matter what even though hospitals are always a hotspot and many patients had contracted the virus while in hospital. . It was unnecessary but led to Covid 19 positive patients being discharged to care homes, and as you say a major proportion of cases.
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Old 19th May 2020, 10:41
  #242 (permalink)  
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To all the health & economics experts on a pilots forum.....
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Old 19th May 2020, 11:05
  #243 (permalink)  
 
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Fire extinguisher- pulled and rotated

Last edited by ozbiggles; 19th May 2020 at 13:11.
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Old 19th May 2020, 11:36
  #244 (permalink)  
 
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Unfortunately looks like we are going to have to change the forum to PPFANE (Professional Pilots Fact Network).
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Old 19th May 2020, 11:37
  #245 (permalink)  
 
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Definition of statistics from my first year at uni 25 years ago that I still remember is
Ēstatistics is just a reason with a lie wrapped around itĒ
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Old 19th May 2020, 12:35
  #246 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Del Prado View Post
My doctor told me if I didnít stop smoking and drinking and didnít eat better Iíd die.
So I stopped drinking and smoking, I ate healthy.

Now I think that doctor didnít know what he was talking about because Iím still here.
He was stating the obvious.... we are going to die.... eventually
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Old 19th May 2020, 13:47
  #247 (permalink)  
 
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You stupids still don’t understand. The elderly are just the canary in the coal mine. If you can’t manage to protect then, then you can’t protect you.

But why do you need protection from this mild disease you ask? Because there is a difference between the population getting flu over a year and everyone getting it in a six week period. The former means emergency departments are busy. The latter means a hundred thousand of the worried well panicking and burning down the hospital.

Please note the commentators massive confusion of cause and effect; we have a lockdown so we don’t have many cases, so we don’t need a lockdown. Discuss.
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Old 19th May 2020, 15:09
  #248 (permalink)  
 
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So whats the direction forward?

Lockdown until virus gone? Lockdown until vaccine?
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Old 19th May 2020, 17:14
  #249 (permalink)  
 
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Phased lifting of restrictions so they can control the number of new cases and thus treatments - if it can gutter along at say 50-100 new cases a day and a few deaths that's what they're looking at. Any sudden up tick will mean a re-imposition of lock-downs - either nationally or locally
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Old 19th May 2020, 19:55
  #250 (permalink)  
 
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All this havoc is now giving birth to what we would have all considered unthinkable some mere months ago. Today I came across an article that Cambridge University will be doing zero contact hours for the academic year 2020/2021. Just let that sink in. A young and exceptionally bright individual does all the hard work necessary to get into Cambridge, only to find out that their student experience will be no different to that of someone doing a distance learning course at an online university. No lectures and seminars, no tutorials with leading academics, no socialising with a top-level peer group who might become your colleagues and friends for life. Will measures like that ensure that we have a well-rounded, educated and socially adapted young generation to take care of the world with all of its constantly arising challenges? I doubt it.

Think about what life will look like if it's transformed into one endless lockdown. Everyone locked inside, doing whatever work can be done online, only going out once a week or so to buy whatever essentials cannot be ordered online. A small number of essential workers running the infrastructure in full PPE makes the only exception. Having entire industries disappear (with the people in them going where?) now looks like the least evil. People will get so severely disadapted to the world they live in that they will be simply unable to survive outdoors. Live interaction will become a thing of the past, wiping out a huge part of what makes humans different from robots. Socialising, travel, sports, hobbies other than embroidery and programming become non-existent, leaving hardly anything to enjoy in life. Does a virus with a true mortality rate of less than 1% make that scenario look like the lesser evil? I doubt so.

As anti-utopian as the former sounds, it's what will happen if we focus entirely on avoiding the virus at all costs rather than learning to co-exist with it, just as we do with many other diseases. Pandemics have been part of human life ever since. And humanity somehow managed to plow ahead and get on with life. Sure, there will be some amount of lives lost - but there will also be in the other scenario. Only that with a more moderate and targeted approach we'll still have something making life worth living and providing for the vast majority of those whose job cannot be moved to the internet.
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Old 19th May 2020, 21:32
  #251 (permalink)  
 
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Except, this ďterrifying mega deathĒ virus will eventually become just part of the suite of viruses we see during the season - and life will go on as it did before..

You guys should write soap operas..
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Old 19th May 2020, 23:49
  #252 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TBM-Legend View Post
False use of statistics comparing Sweden with Australia. You overlook the fact that more than a third of our population live in the Sydney Basin and Melbourne areas which nearly accounts for the total population [10.1M] of Sweden. Our management by comparison has been very good..
So what is the population density of Stockholm compared to the greater Sydney basin?

I was merely pointing out that a previous posters comparison of potential death rates was, well, overly pessimistic IMO. As they say statistics, damn lies, and statistics.
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Old 20th May 2020, 00:15
  #253 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mach E Avelli View Post
Maybe not all people are stupid, but enough of them exist to elect political leaders whose poor decisions leave a legacy we would be better without. Thinking of only recent history - in no particular order - Merkel, Rudd, Trump. Go back in history and the list of elected incompetents is endless....ergo, a lot of people must be fairly stupid.
Australia would probably be better governed if we did not have the States, only Federal and local. Our population hardly justifies three levels of Government. The States all spearing off in their own direction on Covid management is a prime example of why we would be better without them and their arbitrary borders.
Hoarding toilet paper, brawling in supermarket queues, attacking health workers in uniform and enough other bad behaviour suggests that enough stupidity exists in our society to have warranted an early Big Stick approach. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for people to revert to their old habits as restrictions are eased, and what their reaction will be if a second Covid wave forces us back into lockdowns.
To be clear, that isnít my quote. If you treat people like children then thatís generally how they will behave and I agree with that sentiment. There will always be candidates for Darwin Awards. The uptake of the COVID safe application, as an example, was considerable even after a few days - people decided for themselves whether the risk of a privacy breach is of greater consequence than the utility of being able to quickly trace who youíd been in contact with to increase your and others safety. There was no need for government to mandate its use.
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Old 20th May 2020, 00:27
  #254 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunfish View Post
You stupids still donít understand. The elderly are just the canary in the coal mine. If you canít manage to protect then, then you canít protect you.

But why do you need protection from this mild disease you ask? Because there is a difference between the population getting flu over a year and everyone getting it in a six week period. The former means emergency departments are busy. The latter means a hundred thousand of the worried well panicking and burning down the hospital.

Please note the commentators massive confusion of cause and effect; we have a lockdown so we donít have many cases, so we donít need a lockdown. Discuss.
I donít think the concern is the lockdown per se but how do we safely get out of lockdown without inducing rolling restrictions if an outbreak occurs? Employers will find it more difficult to operate in that environment than in one where a there is an ongoing restriction of ďXĒ. We canít seriously open borders then close them again at the first sign of an outbreak.
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Old 20th May 2020, 00:46
  #255 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
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annnnnd get ready for round 2

Mysterious new coronavirus outbreak hits China - 108 MILLION now back into lockdown
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Old 20th May 2020, 02:30
  #256 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
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I don't think I have ever seen a more concentrated amount of misinformation as I have right here. What's next, the moon landing was fake? The earth is flat? Climate change is a hoax? Oh yeah, that one has been done on PPRuNe as well.

I'd be careful calling yourself "professional" with such anti expert opinions.
​​​
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Old 20th May 2020, 03:30
  #257 (permalink)  
 
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Stupid statement..even the experts donít agree
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Old 20th May 2020, 03:35
  #258 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kingRB View Post
The Daily Express is so dumb it makes the Daily Mail look like a scientific journal.
Read that ad infested article and youíll see that number is exaggerated by about 107.96 million people.
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Old 20th May 2020, 04:20
  #259 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mattyj View Post
Stupid statement..even the experts donít agree
Crawl back into your hole matty and leave science to the grown ups.
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Old 20th May 2020, 04:47
  #260 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
The Daily Express is so dumb it makes the Daily Mail look like a scientific journal.
Read that ad infested article and youíll see that number is exaggerated by about 107.96 million people.
feel free to cite your references and corrections - or just stick with it's "dumb"
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