Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Time for a reality Check

Old 18th May 2020, 11:57
  #201 (permalink)  
 
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Being an aviation forum for professional pilots one can understand the enthusiasm to get back to work as near as possible to as before.

Remember though that your potential passengers have a different agenda. They don’t want to catch the virus and they don’t want to go broke as a result of travel.

Travel insurance is getting rare with high premiums and in general all COVID 19 risks are excluded. Would you go take a family on a fortnight’s overseas holiday without insurance cover? You travel on Ryanair who have stated they don’t want to have empty seats. That well know epidemiologist who runs the airline says that empty seats don’t reduce the risk.

A few days into your break one or more members of your party show symptoms (caught on the flight). A couple of members of your family end up in hospital fir two weeks – you have no medical insurance cover. The rest of you are now confined to your room for the rest of your holiday. You may well be forced to stay another couple of weeks in quarantine before being allowed to travel. Who pays? Not your insurer – they excluded it. You could not take your flight home. Ryanair want you to buy a new ticket. Not covered by insurance. You get home and your government want you into enforced quarantine for another two weeks. You now lose your job due absence – and have huge medical debts. One of those left in hospital dies. Who pays to get them home.

It will be a long while before your elective travellers want to fly again – especially with Ryanair’s attitude.


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Old 18th May 2020, 12:16
  #202 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
State borders are not closed, only restricted.

Commercial traffic passes unimpeded.
Well done fool.
https://www.tra.gov.au/Economic-anal...f-the-industry

Here I am thinking it was the Government's (and to quote the media) "Draconian Social and Travel Restrictions" that were repsonsible for crippling the Australian Domestic Tourism Industry. It appears that is not the case.

Australian's spent $122 billion dollars on Domestic Travel last year, and keeping over 600,000 people DIRECTLY employed through the Tourism Industry.
I really under estimated the contribution the average commercial trucker contirbutes to the economy.

You should have rested your case 170 posts ago.
Case Dismissed!
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Old 18th May 2020, 12:44
  #203 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by John Citizen View Post
So you are trying to tell me that it wouldn't bother you if an elderly person you knew and loved died a bit earlier ? what if that was you ?

Yes many elderly have underlying health issues and will eventually die anyway but it doesn't necessarily mean they are suffering and will die next month or even within the next 18 months.

Just because you are old and sick it doesn't mean we shouldn't do our best to prolong your life and ease your suffering. (If you would rather just be cleared out as you get older and might be sick, please advise people accordingly)

Old people can have underlying health issues (as I have witnessed myself) and still enjoy life for many more years (up to 5+ years) well beyond expectations. Enjoy life for themselves as well for the people who love them.

Just clear them out hey, as if they are just old stock. No heart at all. How sad.

However I do think, that as you suggested, that perhaps harder shielding of older sick people only might perhaps be an idea worth looking at.
Iíve had the chat with parents and grandparents. We came to the conclusion that if it is a toss up between 100% chance of cratering their grandkids future, or taking a 1-20% chance of ending up dying WITH corona, they would prefer to preserve their grandkids future.

Yet more hysterical chimping and an assumption that this has a Pk of 1 for anyone vulnerable. It doesnít. The 20% figure is for the most severely chronically ill old people, ridden with Parkinsonís and the like.

And Iím sorry, completely destroying the global economy to give those at the end of their life still wouldnít be worth it, even without a hard shielding for the elderly/vulnerable option.

Money that could be spent on those with terrible illnesses in the future is being burned by the metric tonne to ďtry and save every lifeĒ. Current figures are the average corona victim is costing 90-150 times What would be spent to protect the life of someone in middle age with cancer or requiring a transplant. That is absolutely plain wrong. If pensioners agreed to an net asset grab of 20% across their wrath to pay for this, you know what, ai would go with that. They arenít. The expectation is that later generations are going to have their future opportunities and way of life ruined to support the political aspirations in power today.
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Old 18th May 2020, 12:54
  #204 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by hillbillybob View Post
and the difference between sweden and denmark for drop in GDP was 4% (29% v 25%), for the cost of a much higher death toll
Again, Norway have their death toll to come. All they have done, like everyone else with hard border restrictions and economy destroying lockdowns, is kick the can down the road.
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Old 18th May 2020, 13:02
  #205 (permalink)  
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There is enough resonable doubt cast on this case. And it is clear the Unanimous Consensus required will not be reached.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/us-...ovid-19-deaths
“The case definition is very simplistic,” Dr. Ngozi Ezike, director of Illinois Department of Public Health

“It means, at the time of death, it was a COVID positive diagnosis. That means, that if you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means, technically even if you died of clear alternative cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it’s still listed as a COVID death.”
Medical examiners in Michigan use the same definition. In Macomb and Oakland Counties, where most of the deaths occurred, medical examiners classify any deaths as Coronavirus deaths when the postmortem test is positive. Even people who died in suicides and automobile accidents meet that definition.


https://nationalpost.com/news/world/...-19-death-rate
Risk of death from other causes

In the U.K., about 150,000 people die every year between January and March. To date, the vast majority of those who have died from Covid-19 in Britain have been aged 70 or older or had serious pre-existing health conditions.

What is not clear is how many of those deaths would have occurred anyway if the patients had not contracted Covid-19.

Speaking at a parliamentary hearing last week, Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London, said it was not yet clear how many “excess deaths” caused by coronavirus there would be in the U.K. However, he said the proportion of Covid-19 victims who would have died anyway could be “as many as half or two-thirds”.

One last comment, the peak of daily deaths World Wide and in the USA, was April 16th.

I will be back in 6-12 months once you are all forced to repair the Australian Economy through your taxes, rates, levies etc.
We will see if you all think it was worth it then.
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Old 18th May 2020, 13:20
  #206 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
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VinRouge you seem to be the only individual here who has a real sense of the true nature of this hyped up flu bug.
Not only, there are few more sensible of us.

What if you are one of us and have a 93 year old parent? You take some [email protected]' responsibility and protect them, like we have. You don't whinge to anybody who'll listen about sacrificing them, you make sure they don't come into contact as best you can. The stubborn old bastard is still up ladders but he sure as shit isn't down at the supermarket. He is a much loved family member and will be protected, I'm not seeing my partner a lot because she is looking after his needs, but me? I'm not at risk, the 'protections' placed on myself are hysterical, alarmist bullshit.

Have you Stockholm folk actually taken a breath and listened to AM radio lately? The whole day, 16 hours of it is non-stop covid bullshit. 99 deaths, most, if not all, underlying health conditions. How many of them would have died had covid not been in their system? 20? 30? You alarmist, pathetic, disaster seeking snowys have got what you want. Basking in it.

Shut your whinging, look after the at risk rather than demanding the government do it and let the rest of us get back to work.

Last edited by Bodie1; 18th May 2020 at 13:40.
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Old 18th May 2020, 13:33
  #207 (permalink)  
 
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To all those folk that love playing the 'What if it was your relative card' (not in response to your post Bodie1), I'd like to play devils advocate. My dear old mum is in her early 80's. She has had a great life but I'd love to see her make her mid 80's. But you see, that pesky seasonal influenza virus has a habit of ripping through and robbing from us the sick and the elderly. But you've planted a seed in my imagination. If we set up reliable community makers both here and overseas, we could have an international early warning system. When these systems detect a virulent flu bug, we could save many of our elderly relatives by shutting down the borders and locking everybody into their homes. We'd all live until a ripe old age (until of course we die from other causes).

Is that a goer?
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Old 18th May 2020, 13:39
  #208 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ozbiggles View Post
And isnít that the point, nobody knew what the answer was here, but there were many different outcomes.

Errr pardon my confused look, "outcomes". Is it all finished in your country? Job done? As far as I was aware this is far from over in many countries, therefore no outcome.
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Old 18th May 2020, 14:07
  #209 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
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I will be back in 6-12 months once you are all forced to repair the Australian Economy through your taxes, rates, levies etc.
We will see if you all think it was worth it then
If many of the sick elderly (many close to me) are still alive, yes it was worth it. Money isn't everything. I can tell you this now.

Few of these elderly in the past risked their life and went to war for the good of the world, and many others died for a cause they believed in, so we shouldn't be selfish about making some sacrifices ourselves for the good of others too.

So we just let the old people who gave us this great life we have now just die for own greed?

Yes some will say life is not great at all but what if the outcome of the past wars were different?

Last edited by John Citizen; 18th May 2020 at 14:18.
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Old 18th May 2020, 14:21
  #210 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by John Citizen View Post
If many of the sick elderly (many close to me) are still alive, yes it was worth it. Money isn't everything. I can tell you this now.

Few of these elderly in the past risked their life and went to war for the good of the world, and many others died for a cause they believed in, so we shouldn't be selfish about making some sacrifices ourselves for the good of others too.

So we just let the old people who gave us this great life we have now just die for own greed?

Yes some will say life is not great at all but what if the outcome of the past wars were different?
You are right itís not, ďmoney isnít everythingĒ. But there is a level you get to when you canít afford to clothe your kids and put food on the table where Iíd be willing to do anything to prevent ending up on the streets. And this isnít just pilots. There are 5 million professionals Alone in the U.K. looking down the barrel of unemployment and a decimated outlook. Tell me that someone who has the best years behind them are worth wrapping in cotton wool to stop that happening?


And donít give me that crap about the war - I did my time, 17 years, shot at, mortared with a destroyed back and having been through PTSD for queen and country, along with many now in their thirties who risked far more than is now being asked.

Our last WW2 veteran pilot passed away Last week at a Ripe old age of 96. Every elderly vet I have spoken to opposes the lock down and think itís an affront to the liberties they fought for.

Once again, you claim Covid has a Pk of one. It doesnít. The chance of economic collapse with an extending never ending lockdown is 100%.

Last edited by VinRouge; 18th May 2020 at 14:37.
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Old 18th May 2020, 14:26
  #211 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RAD_ALT_ALIVE View Post
I absolutely agree with OP.
In April alone, 75 Australians lost their lives on the roads of this nation. Should we then ban cars and driving?

Influenza kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people annually around the world. The COVID mortality numbers are slowly reducing and may not reach the upper end of the fluís deaths.
The flu doesnít kill hundreds of doctors and nurses within an eight week period.
For example, 172 in UK and 152 in Italy... and counting.

That is with the lockdown.

Belgium has half the population of Australia and yesterday passed 9000 deaths.

We could easily have had 18,000 deaths and lost 150 medics. The first death in Belgium was March 11.

The virus hasnít gone on a holiday, it wonít give us a break because we have become irritable.

It is as every bit as deadly as it was in January.



Deceased UK medical staff

Unofficial list of deceased medics, over 1000 names and rising.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927976

Will Western communities knowingly put medical staff into harms way, for the sake of saving the economy?


mjb

Last edited by mickjoebill; 18th May 2020 at 14:44.
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Old 18th May 2020, 14:28
  #212 (permalink)  
 
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And donít give me that crap about the war
So you think life would be just as good if we overrun by the Nazi's?

There actually still are 846 WW2 veterans still alive around the world. So we just let some of them die for the freedom they fought for us ?

Sure most veterans are dead but what I am saying is that people in the past took a risk whilst so many others made a sacrifice (died in battle) for the people they love. Can't we do the same and make some sacrifice for the people we love or are we too greedy and selfish?

But it's not just sacrifices in war I am taIking about.

It's about the gift of life from my parents.
My parents gave me the life I have now and shouldn't I do the best to keep them alive now? Or is my greed more important?

Last edited by John Citizen; 18th May 2020 at 14:59.
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Old 18th May 2020, 14:33
  #213 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mickjoebill View Post
The flu doesnít kill hundreds of doctors and nurses within an eight week period.
For example, 172 in UK and 152 in Italy... and counting.
mjb
Probably because the efficient immune system the human body is blessed with has, over the century's, evolved to build up an immunity. The Novel Coronavirus has taken our bodies by surprise. Is remaining locked down the answer?
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Old 18th May 2020, 15:08
  #214 (permalink)  
 
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I did read an interesting interview with an elderly couple that had decided they would take their chances and refused to abide by lockdown guidance as they felt their twilight years should not be spent confined to their bungalow. I will add, it was only 2 elderly people, but isn't irony a bitch.
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Old 18th May 2020, 15:58
  #215 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Stick Flying View Post
Probably because the efficient immune system the human body is blessed with has, over the century's, evolved to build up an immunity. The Novel Coronavirus has taken our bodies by surprise. Is remaining locked down the answer?

Lock down doesn't so give you immunity - its to

a) stop you spreading it
b) reducing the sudden up-tick in cases that start to double every 5 days - it doesn't take long before you have exponential numbers of sick people overwhelming the hospitals - and then all bets are off. Remember somewhere t like the UK only had about 60,000 intensive care beds - and 50,000 of then were already occupied pre CV-19 - there was almost no spare capacity in the system.

I'm in favour of starting things up again - but at the time Governments and Science knew almost nothing about the epidemiology of CV-19 - they had to take the cautious approach. I was speaking to a colleague who has a very close family member in a hospital in Spain for non-Covid reasons and his descriptions of what it was like 4 -8 weeks ago are really frightening. In that hospital they just, but only just , kept their heads above water - it sounds more like a battle field hospital than anything else I've ever heard of. Patients being triaged, corridors full of trolleys with sick people, medics working 18 hour days.

It's real, it kills - we know a lot more about it now and yes, we can start carefully lifting restrictions - but only a certified lunatic would have let it rip 3 months ago.
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Old 18th May 2020, 16:06
  #216 (permalink)  
 
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Asturias56

Agree wholeheartedly. But there seems to be an element that are suggesting we remain locked down until we have the virus beat. I don't think that is a viable plan myself. Then it will be a case of seeing what happens. We may some level of immunity which would be encouraging to reduce the amplitude of following spikes.

Sure glad I'm not the one in charge responsible for these decisions.
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Old 18th May 2020, 16:32
  #217 (permalink)  
 
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The government can only support failing businesses and unemployed individuals for that long. After some point, it no longer becomes possible. And the situation becomes disastrous in the drop of a hat. Think famine, breakdown of law and order, crime and violence to the point of people getting murdered in the street for a bag of groceries... That's where any country will find itself soon unless things start moving. It doesn't mean that all restrictions shall be removed; instead, they need to be made more targeted. In the case of international travel, blanket bans are likely to be replaced by restrictions for entry to and from countries with a significantly worse epidemiological situation. And, at least in Europe, that will be the case very soon, I believe. After all, if two countries are in a similar situation, the lurgy is just as likely to get you in the foreign country as it is in your home one and vice-versa.
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Old 18th May 2020, 18:24
  #218 (permalink)  
 
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Trading lives

https://fee.org/articles/no-policy-c...y-trade-lives/
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Old 18th May 2020, 21:09
  #219 (permalink)  
 
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flu kills usually around 600000 people a year worlwide. (google)
covid is unlikely to reach that number, only 316K so far. (google again)

Let's hope we'll have the covid again next year, if we have the usual flu, it will be terrible...
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Old 18th May 2020, 21:17
  #220 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
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QLD Gov must have a bottomless pit of money, Anastasia staying firm on September in today's Australian. Appears mounting pressure from NSW, VIC and fed gov to re-open as QLD tourist business report bookings they have from June, they could loose as many as 2.2m travelers for the winter who normally spend 1.5b costing QLD economy 800m a week, why want to buy an Airline and not let it fly anywhere. As it stands today there is only 549 cases of COVID-19 which now the education is out there and a future outbreak will be manageable compared to March.
Good thing is there is demand for travel this could only mean good things for aviation.
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