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AFR - Virgin Administrators come under fire for doubtful forecasts

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AFR - Virgin Administrators come under fire for doubtful forecasts

Old 30th May 2020, 11:19
  #101 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: moon
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Don’t get your hopes up.

‘They companies involved in these bids are concentrating on their absolute number one priority............

.........Which is their exit strategy from the business about three to five years from now.

They are not long term investors, except perhaps Temasek. Their objective is to clean out the business of any obvious stupidities, take or “acquire” all the businesses cash, load it up with humongous amounts of cheap (at present) debt and then flog shares in this lipstick bedecked pig to mum and dads super funds or stupid institutional buyers, making a cool billion or two in the float.

Unfortunately QF management can kill their float plans stone dead any time it wants to. Just wait till the float is underwritten and announced, then start aggressive discounting and he float fails.

My guess, unfortunately, is that Virgin is for the knackers yard because I can’t see a successful exit strategy for investors. Furthermore QF management are blameless.


Sunfish is offline  
Old 31st May 2020, 01:16
  #102 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
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The reality is that it's dollars only that drives this forward. Any of these bidders will be looking at a quick turnover and sale because that's the way they operate. Does not matter what the business is.

I wouldn't mind betting that all the "data room" examination has provided is an idea of the true costs of VAH - bidders will run a mile at taking a percentage of the debt, staff agreements, existing leases etc etc into the future.

All they have to do is provide knock down bids that won't satisfy anyone and the show is finished.

The sooner this is rolled over and a fresh new entrant can get up, the better. It won't provide jobs for everyone, but it's a start.

The only doubt in my mind is who will the new owners be ?
Des Dimona is offline  
Old 31st May 2020, 09:05
  #103 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
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With the Administrators telling the bidders this afternoon to "cool their jets" for another 24 hours, the suspense must almost be too much for Carla who will by now be frothing at the mouth to find out if she'll get the gig.
mrs nomer is offline  
Old 31st May 2020, 23:19
  #104 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
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According to the AFR, if Bain did get up, Hrdlicka may be the Chairman, rather than CEO. If Scurrah did then stay on as CEO, it would be an interesting dynamic between the two.
Arctaurus is offline  
Old 1st Jun 2020, 01:56
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Arctaurus View Post
According to the AFR, if Bain did get up, Hrdlicka may be the Chairman, rather than CEO.
Wow!!! If that happens I wonder how long it would take before the administrators are called in again.
The Bullwinkle is offline  
Old 2nd Jun 2020, 22:53
  #106 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Sydney
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Angry

Originally Posted by Denied Justice View Post
This from a post re the expected British Airways redundancies:



Employees are nothing more than a cost centre for any of the bidders. No one should be under any illusion that there is benevolence in their minds.
Iíve listen to every company podcast and whatís pathetic are their noses growing each time, and by shear coincidence VA have moved into the same building the administrators own! Come on, are you all that blind?

Our managers had sent out surveys over the last 5 yrs and for what? OUR negative responses have done absolutely nothing, your still steered us onto the reef, well done flight ops, well done and I bet youíll still keep your jobs whilst those who warned you get the chop. I can holy hope you join us all in the dole queue where you belong.
Oz Pilot is offline  
Old 3rd Jun 2020, 14:19
  #107 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
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Originally Posted by Arctaurus View Post
According to the AFR, if Bain did get up, Hrdlicka may be the Chairman, rather than CEO. If Scurrah did then stay on as CEO, it would be an interesting dynamic between the two.
Itís a bit more family friendly I gather than being CEO.

Well played.
Blueskymine is offline  
Old 4th Jun 2020, 01:09
  #108 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2020
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Originally Posted by Blueskymine View Post
Itís a bit more family friendly I gather than being CEO.

Well played.
Even if Scuz was retained, he would be on a very tight leash. No one messes with Carla.
One comes from Darthmouth, the other..... well, that's the point isn't it.
didrechambers77 is offline  
Old 4th Jun 2020, 04:13
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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No one messes with Carla.
Really? Tell that to AJ who gave her the boot over the JQ HK fiasco. She knows as much about running an airline as she does about dairy farming.
Lookleft is offline  
Old 4th Jun 2020, 10:41
  #110 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
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She knows as much about running an airline as she does about dairy farming.
Err.........in both cases that would be zero.
Arctaurus is offline  
Old 4th Jun 2020, 11:45
  #111 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
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Originally Posted by Arctaurus View Post
Err.........in both cases that would be zero.
Think too many being far too harsh on the dear lady - surely just a case of cream rising to the top yet again??

Of course other substances can rise also.

Cheers
galdian is offline  
Old 4th Jun 2020, 13:25
  #112 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
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Now that JQ/QF are ramping up their schedules for June/July, are Virgin able to follow suit given their administration status?
ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE is offline  
Old 5th Jun 2020, 05:23
  #113 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
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........are Virgin able to follow suit given their administration status?
It will depend on whether the government keeps subsidising certain routes plus what course the administration actually ends up taking.

In any case, I would have thought an immediate restart by Virgin is problematic.
Con Catenator is offline  
Old 5th Jun 2020, 23:51
  #114 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
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End of the day it is a business, so, if he does well that's just being a good businessman. It happens in other industry's and it seems to be OK.
Ragnor is offline  
Old 5th Jun 2020, 23:52
  #115 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
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Originally Posted by ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE View Post
Now that JQ/QF are ramping up their schedules for June/July, are Virgin able to follow suit given their administration status?
They can but they are on their own. They probably donít have the ability to Ďtest the watersí as such across the market as that will involve red ink. It will just accelerate the demise.

Itís pretty clear now if they went to Canberra asking for another 4-6 weeks of subsidised routes, otherwise it will go to the wall, wonít work. Canberra will let it sink.

I wonder if Bain would let it go to liquidation or step up cash before it reaches that point, which is sometime within the next three weeks.
wheels_down is offline  
Old 6th Jun 2020, 00:10
  #116 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wheels_down View Post
They can but they are on their own. They probably donít have the ability to Ďtest the watersí as such across the market as that will involve red ink. It will just accelerate the demise.

Itís pretty clear now if they went to Canberra asking for another 4-6 weeks of subsidised routes, otherwise it will go to the wall, wonít work. Canberra will let it sink.

I wonder if Bain would let it go to liquidation or step up cash before it reaches that point, which is sometime within the next three weeks.
whats within 3 weeks?
chookcooker is offline  
Old 6th Jun 2020, 01:16
  #117 (permalink)  
rmm
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: BNE
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I think he's referencing these dates posted in another thread,

1. June 11th -Government subsidies ceases.
2. June 12th -Binding bids.
3. June 16th -Administrators become liable for Aircraft leases.
4. June 30th- Administrators close sale, liquidate or have received further funding to operate.

Last edited by rmm; 6th Jun 2020 at 03:10. Reason: spelling
rmm is offline  
Old 6th Jun 2020, 02:14
  #118 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
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Is that time line even achievable for a sale? Surely there is no company that could do due diligence in that tight time frame. We are not talking 10 or 20 million it’s billions on the table.
Ragnor is offline  
Old 6th Jun 2020, 02:47
  #119 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Originally Posted by Ragnor View Post
Is that time line even achievable for a sale? Surely there is no company that could do due diligence in that tight time frame. We are not talking 10 or 20 million itís billions on the table.
Yup! Something that just hasnít seemed right to me from the beginning. Nearly $7billion in liabilities and virtually no market. Certainly nothing like it was before.

Iím desperately sorry for all my VA friends and colleagues, and I hope my instincts are wrong, but how do you make a small fortune in aviation?

Am I missing something?
KRUSTY 34 is offline  

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