How long before Qantas goes into VA
Over many decades, this guy has got far more calls right than he has got wrong. He is very negative on airlines. Note these airlines have extensive domestic operations, so Buffett is not that confident that domestic ops will return to normal levels.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-5-1029160193
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-5-1029160193
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I agree that we are not likely to see the 380 or 747 for quite a while.
However, I think the JQ787 will continue to be utilised. It has a footprint that the A321 cannot get near and a cost base that mainline cannot get anywhere near.
Speaking to friends and family throughout this lockdown, many in wealthy, well-to-do situations, has me believing that many travellers will be looking for the lowest fares when things start picking up again. If that’s the case, then the JQ787 is a quite a potent tool.
i also think that, domestically, the 737 won’t bounce back as quickly as it might. Again, many of these friends and family across a wide range of industries, who used to be very frequent business travellers, have stated that Tele-conferencing will be likely to permanently replace a lot of the travel they used to conduct..
PG
However, I think the JQ787 will continue to be utilised. It has a footprint that the A321 cannot get near and a cost base that mainline cannot get anywhere near.
Speaking to friends and family throughout this lockdown, many in wealthy, well-to-do situations, has me believing that many travellers will be looking for the lowest fares when things start picking up again. If that’s the case, then the JQ787 is a quite a potent tool.
i also think that, domestically, the 737 won’t bounce back as quickly as it might. Again, many of these friends and family across a wide range of industries, who used to be very frequent business travellers, have stated that Tele-conferencing will be likely to permanently replace a lot of the travel they used to conduct..
PG
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AJ has stated this morning that they are looking at removing “some A380’s. How many have been reconfigured? Or at least, the reconfiguration paid for? Also almost confirmation that the 747 is done.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ember-retested
France has now tracked down a case of COVID in a guy who was sick on December 27. That man had no travel history.
So by December 27, the virus had travelled from China to Paris, and had infected a Paris resident - who had become sick enough to go to a hospital and have a test for the 'flu.
This all happened 4 days before the WHO was 1st notified by China.
Does make you wonder how many cases we imported into Australia during December and January.
France has now tracked down a case of COVID in a guy who was sick on December 27. That man had no travel history.
So by December 27, the virus had travelled from China to Paris, and had infected a Paris resident - who had become sick enough to go to a hospital and have a test for the 'flu.
This all happened 4 days before the WHO was 1st notified by China.
Does make you wonder how many cases we imported into Australia during December and January.
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I think QF will try to avoid costly redundancy pay outs. It just doesn't make sense right now when cash is king. They will instead use time to their advantage.
Firstly as per the latest FSO there is no training slots for the year.
737 will drop to minimum divisor, which also means no training can happen i.e. no one from LH can come over. If there is still a surplus here it will result in rotating stand downs and natural attrition.
As people hit the international retirement age of 65, they will be forced into retirement. 737 is no longer a plan B. LH numbers will reduce from natural attrition and some just throwing in the towel. Some will take LWOP and go elsewhere. Others will quit the industry all together.
330 and 787 will slowly pickup. Country by country at a time (the "travel bubble"). The 380 and 747 is done. Forget it. It sucks. Expect the 380s to be parked up somewhere. Maybe even with the Singapore 380s in Alice.
The interesting thing is what will happen to the excess 380 and 747 crew? A RIN? Further stand downs? Redundancy's off the tail end of the seniority list?
Again, I think Qantas will just buy themselves time. I can't see Qantas throwing all this cash at training and movements.
The company will eventually go to AIPA with some sort of offer on conditions to avoid redundancy, training movements, and allowances. It will go to a vote. If it gets voted down by the pilots, expect Qantas to submit a challenge in the courts to fight the RIN process in the EBA. They will argue it's not financially viable and will send the company into administration.
Interesting times.
Firstly as per the latest FSO there is no training slots for the year.
737 will drop to minimum divisor, which also means no training can happen i.e. no one from LH can come over. If there is still a surplus here it will result in rotating stand downs and natural attrition.
As people hit the international retirement age of 65, they will be forced into retirement. 737 is no longer a plan B. LH numbers will reduce from natural attrition and some just throwing in the towel. Some will take LWOP and go elsewhere. Others will quit the industry all together.
330 and 787 will slowly pickup. Country by country at a time (the "travel bubble"). The 380 and 747 is done. Forget it. It sucks. Expect the 380s to be parked up somewhere. Maybe even with the Singapore 380s in Alice.
The interesting thing is what will happen to the excess 380 and 747 crew? A RIN? Further stand downs? Redundancy's off the tail end of the seniority list?
Again, I think Qantas will just buy themselves time. I can't see Qantas throwing all this cash at training and movements.
The company will eventually go to AIPA with some sort of offer on conditions to avoid redundancy, training movements, and allowances. It will go to a vote. If it gets voted down by the pilots, expect Qantas to submit a challenge in the courts to fight the RIN process in the EBA. They will argue it's not financially viable and will send the company into administration.
Interesting times.
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I’m sure the ACCC is taking notes....if the ACCC will have a role in a post COVIDS world remains to be seen.
I don’t see it as much more than the normal 2 seats per aircraft and 10x times the price to get back old trick.
I don’t see it as much more than the normal 2 seats per aircraft and 10x times the price to get back old trick.
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Qantarse wants to lock away as many domestic pax as possible before virgin 2 even gets going. So doesn't matter what fares V2 come out with, if you're booked on JQ, you won't be flying V2. Yes if V2 does a lot of loss leaders, they will get some pax, but loss leaders are just for free advertising.
Just an off the cuff thought, but what are the Redundancy provisions in Jetstar? Perhaps A fraction the cost of those in QF I would assume? They most likely don’t have a massively complex and expensive RIN process either.
Consider the Jetstar 11 787s get a repaint with a Roo on the tail, the 5 747s and 6 (possibly more) of the 380s get retired, and then crews directed to the now enlarged 787 fleet, which would have a mix of -8 and -9 versions going forward, avoiding a lot of expensive displacement in a RIN.
The result is a super efficient twin engine wide body fleet to replace the 4 engine money guzzlers, with two sub types to use in various roles as demanded by capacity, which is much more suited to the market predictions going into the next two years.
It also potentially avoids a massive amount of cost of displacement and retraining of the RIN process, AND QFs likely much more expensive Redundancy process as a result. All the while also minimizing any potential legal wrangling QF might have to do around approval to be working outside of EAs etc.
Not a great thought for those in JQ, but as much as I don’t see full A380s flying around any time soon, I don’t see 300 plus punters in one hit from multiple Capital cities heading to Bali, Vietnam, Hawaii in 787s either.
Hopefully it just a pointless brain fart and we find a way out this mess without anyone losing out.
Consider the Jetstar 11 787s get a repaint with a Roo on the tail, the 5 747s and 6 (possibly more) of the 380s get retired, and then crews directed to the now enlarged 787 fleet, which would have a mix of -8 and -9 versions going forward, avoiding a lot of expensive displacement in a RIN.
The result is a super efficient twin engine wide body fleet to replace the 4 engine money guzzlers, with two sub types to use in various roles as demanded by capacity, which is much more suited to the market predictions going into the next two years.
It also potentially avoids a massive amount of cost of displacement and retraining of the RIN process, AND QFs likely much more expensive Redundancy process as a result. All the while also minimizing any potential legal wrangling QF might have to do around approval to be working outside of EAs etc.
Not a great thought for those in JQ, but as much as I don’t see full A380s flying around any time soon, I don’t see 300 plus punters in one hit from multiple Capital cities heading to Bali, Vietnam, Hawaii in 787s either.
Hopefully it just a pointless brain fart and we find a way out this mess without anyone losing out.
Just an off the cuff thought, but what are the Redundancy provisions in Jetstar? Perhaps A fraction the cost of those in QF I would assume? They most likely don’t have a massively complex and expensive RIN process either.
Consider the Jetstar 11 787s get a repaint with a Roo on the tail, the 5 747s and 6 (possibly more) of the 380s get retired, and then crews directed to the now enlarged 787 fleet, which would have a mix of -8 and -9 versions going forward, avoiding a lot of expensive displacement in a RIN.
The result is a super efficient twin engine wide body fleet to replace the 4 engine money guzzlers, with two sub types to use in various roles as demanded by capacity, which is much more suited to the market predictions going into the next two years.
It also potentially avoids a massive amount of cost of displacement and retraining of the RIN process, AND QFs likely much more expensive Redundancy process as a result. All the while also minimizing any potential legal wrangling QF might have to do around approval to be working outside of EAs etc.
Not a great thought for those in JQ, but as much as I don’t see full A380s flying around any time soon, I don’t see 300 plus punters in one hit from multiple Capital cities heading to Bali, Vietnam, Hawaii in 787s either.
Hopefully it just a pointless brain fart and we find a way out this mess without anyone losing out.
Consider the Jetstar 11 787s get a repaint with a Roo on the tail, the 5 747s and 6 (possibly more) of the 380s get retired, and then crews directed to the now enlarged 787 fleet, which would have a mix of -8 and -9 versions going forward, avoiding a lot of expensive displacement in a RIN.
The result is a super efficient twin engine wide body fleet to replace the 4 engine money guzzlers, with two sub types to use in various roles as demanded by capacity, which is much more suited to the market predictions going into the next two years.
It also potentially avoids a massive amount of cost of displacement and retraining of the RIN process, AND QFs likely much more expensive Redundancy process as a result. All the while also minimizing any potential legal wrangling QF might have to do around approval to be working outside of EAs etc.
Not a great thought for those in JQ, but as much as I don’t see full A380s flying around any time soon, I don’t see 300 plus punters in one hit from multiple Capital cities heading to Bali, Vietnam, Hawaii in 787s either.
Hopefully it just a pointless brain fart and we find a way out this mess without anyone losing out.
Its not about being charitable. It’s about stimulating the market to get the jets going and of course letting any investors in VA know that they will need lots of cash to participate.
Last edited by neville_nobody; 6th May 2020 at 03:16.
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So, if we're playing Nostradamus Bingo, I still think JQ will do the bulk of DOM sectors & limited Bogan Holiday INTL sectors, and QF will do the opposite.
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$19 airfares
All Joyce is doing is terrifying potential.bidders for the Virgin going concern. He should be prosecuted downstream for these tactics..
Last edited by sundaun; 6th May 2020 at 03:24. Reason: Spelling
All Joyce is doing is terrifying potential.bidders for the Virgin going concern. He should be prosecuted downstream for these tactics..
