20 buyers now circling Virgin Australia
It's straying from the topic but he's been checking in quite regularly. You only have to look at his public profile.
This may change now as he's been outed.
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So are there still 20 tyrekickers (sorry, interested parties) circling VA?
Administrator's gotta say what he administrators gotta say, bit like a house auction where bids are submitted by persons only seen by the auctioneer in the far, far distance.
More questionable financials will be discovered to a point where VA becomes untouchable. Receivership.
Individual assets may then be released (primarily from an operational perspective Tiger AOC and VARA) who can regenerate as new entities and operate, grow and employ as they see fit.
If nothing else might minimise the VA Village mentality that has proven so....interesting.
Hopefully I'm wrong, IF some consortium comes along learn from the AN experience: if it contains a component of airline experience then there's a chance SOMETHING of an airline may be possible.
IF the consortium has NO component of airline experience they will just be there to rape and pillage and turn a profit by doing so. Refer Lew and Fox and AN2, couldn't run far or fast enough after stamping their little feet.
Macquarie might invest in infrastructure but they would NEVER invest in an airline; they may be brutal but they are in any game to make money, airlines (generally) do not. However if they can rip it apart.....
Twiggy? Buy the VARA component, run primarily as a closed airline, charge a sh*tload of $$ for seats charged to the mining ops, "airline" makes money, costs used as tax losses for the mining ops and guaranteed FIFO.
Alliance? Someone slides up and suggests an investment for expansion hope they'd say "yeah, maybe....but run the alliance way and no VA Village idiots", now THAT could be viable.
Cheers.
Administrator's gotta say what he administrators gotta say, bit like a house auction where bids are submitted by persons only seen by the auctioneer in the far, far distance.
More questionable financials will be discovered to a point where VA becomes untouchable. Receivership.
Individual assets may then be released (primarily from an operational perspective Tiger AOC and VARA) who can regenerate as new entities and operate, grow and employ as they see fit.
If nothing else might minimise the VA Village mentality that has proven so....interesting.
Hopefully I'm wrong, IF some consortium comes along learn from the AN experience: if it contains a component of airline experience then there's a chance SOMETHING of an airline may be possible.
IF the consortium has NO component of airline experience they will just be there to rape and pillage and turn a profit by doing so. Refer Lew and Fox and AN2, couldn't run far or fast enough after stamping their little feet.
Macquarie might invest in infrastructure but they would NEVER invest in an airline; they may be brutal but they are in any game to make money, airlines (generally) do not. However if they can rip it apart.....
Twiggy? Buy the VARA component, run primarily as a closed airline, charge a sh*tload of $$ for seats charged to the mining ops, "airline" makes money, costs used as tax losses for the mining ops and guaranteed FIFO.
Alliance? Someone slides up and suggests an investment for expansion hope they'd say "yeah, maybe....but run the alliance way and no VA Village idiots", now THAT could be viable.
Cheers.
They may be brutal but they are in any game to make money
I've been extremely impressed with a number of organisations (big ones) and the relief they're providing. I've benefitted in a number of ways, I'll remember who's provided it and who hasn't. I'm sure business will be doing the same. This is a big time for reputations to be made and destroyed. Perth Airport comes to mind, what an embarrassment. I'm sure that when things are back on track and money's being made, the airlines will unite against these arse-clowns, it's started already. How are Sydney and Melbourne airports behaving? It'll be interesting.
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Virgin Australia says it could triple its earnings post coronavirus
"triple its earnings to $5B....."
Rgds
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Revenue, earnings, turnover whatever...... how about a profit.
Poor sunfish. He was destined to unravel the moment the injustice of the transgender lobby and feminists stopping schoolboys taking rifles on trams was perpetrated. Get well soon champ.
he seems a smart dude. I never agree with a word he says but the forum is a better place with him here.
he seems a smart dude. I never agree with a word he says but the forum is a better place with him here.
Whispering "T" Jet
Being a cricket tragic, I would have liked to see Sunfish get those last two runs before retiring. 8000 looks better in the Cricketer's Almanac than 7998 but then again, he had a wicked sense of humour!
Taking a cold hard look from a distance at VA as a business it seems to me that the 20 potential buyers eagerly circling this sought after prize asset are largely little more than administrators hype unless of course the creditors are prepared to largely write off the A$7 billion of debt.
Otherwise why would anyone believe that this is anything other than a dead dog of a business that has lost huge amounts of shareholders cash.
What is actually worth investing in ?
Some aircraft – no shortage of those at knock down prices.
Experienced management – plenty of those about who are almost certainly going to be better trained and more productive than the present mob.
Infrastructure - nothing there that is not easily replaceable and in the right location.
Customer base -fickle at best.
Brand – tarnished
Pilots – unfortunately no shortage of available experienced crew
The real value is perhaps only the possibility of profit to be made and value to be built at some time in the fairly distant future.
Any interested investor is almost certainly going to be a cashed up existing large operator with deep pockets and a strong supportive shareholder base looking for a long term strategic investment.
Are there any of those about at the moment ?
If not I rather suspect that Virgin Australia is in all likelihood unfortuantly another failed dead airline.
Otherwise why would anyone believe that this is anything other than a dead dog of a business that has lost huge amounts of shareholders cash.
What is actually worth investing in ?
Some aircraft – no shortage of those at knock down prices.
Experienced management – plenty of those about who are almost certainly going to be better trained and more productive than the present mob.
Infrastructure - nothing there that is not easily replaceable and in the right location.
Customer base -fickle at best.
Brand – tarnished
Pilots – unfortunately no shortage of available experienced crew
The real value is perhaps only the possibility of profit to be made and value to be built at some time in the fairly distant future.
Any interested investor is almost certainly going to be a cashed up existing large operator with deep pockets and a strong supportive shareholder base looking for a long term strategic investment.
Are there any of those about at the moment ?
If not I rather suspect that Virgin Australia is in all likelihood unfortuantly another failed dead airline.
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Deloitte/Virgin- "Committee of inspection"
This maybe, relevant to all- that ARE 'In' it-
Link to the 'said' proposed COI group/statement here: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/da...ors-050520.pdf
Rgds
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"the Administrators’ Proposed COI comprising 35 members representative of all categories of creditors."
Rgds
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Greetings Buttscratcher
Enforced retirement for now (probably permanent, time will tell) due the MAX screwup but that leads into the CV situation.
Get to do stuff on the property to fill in time so better off than some.
Occasionally knock off some bunnies, very satisfying after you've assigned them some nemesis from the past!
Amazing how the pilot landscape's changed so violently in such a short time, started with the MAX courtesy Boeing and CV19 just keeps the fun rolling along.
Hope all OK for you and family.
Cheers
Enforced retirement for now (probably permanent, time will tell) due the MAX screwup but that leads into the CV situation.
Get to do stuff on the property to fill in time so better off than some.
Occasionally knock off some bunnies, very satisfying after you've assigned them some nemesis from the past!
Amazing how the pilot landscape's changed so violently in such a short time, started with the MAX courtesy Boeing and CV19 just keeps the fun rolling along.
Hope all OK for you and family.
Cheers
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"IF" VA comes back under some sort of guise they will come back in a very fragile market! The whole country has been decimated on so many fronts (forget the world) so yield will be low at least in the foreseeable future.
To make any attempt work the new "Co" will have to be a very lean operation. Now what can be cut!
Leasing? Hardly!
Maint? Nope!
Fuel? They wish!
Airways charges? Hardly!
Airport leases and associated costs? In yr dreams!
CREW/personel? Exactly!
The hunan element is the only area that can be squeezed & they will come flocking!
Interesting times ahead! If the flying game returns anywhere near pre the CV BS then it won't return for everyone!
To make any attempt work the new "Co" will have to be a very lean operation. Now what can be cut!
Leasing? Hardly!
Maint? Nope!
Fuel? They wish!
Airways charges? Hardly!
Airport leases and associated costs? In yr dreams!
CREW/personel? Exactly!
The hunan element is the only area that can be squeezed & they will come flocking!
Interesting times ahead! If the flying game returns anywhere near pre the CV BS then it won't return for everyone!
This maybe, relevant to all- that ARE 'In' it-
Link to the 'said' proposed COI group/statement here: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/da...ors-050520.pdf
Rgds
S28- BE
Link to the 'said' proposed COI group/statement here: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/da...ors-050520.pdf
Rgds
S28- BE
That is because while the business remains a going concern no one holding a travel bank credit is considered a creditor; they are what are known as contingent creditors and the travel bank credits (what is usually known as Unearned Revenue) are contingent debt. Because of that contingent position the value of the travel bank has not yet been reflected in the business's declared $6.88 billion debt position. When you include those travel bank credits Virgin's truer liabilities are more like $8 billion than $6.8 billion.
And to a certain extent the contingent debt represented by the travel credits is more difficult to deal with for an administrator than noncontingent unsecured debt like bonds and bondholders. That's because unlike other unsecured debt that can be negotiated down, any prospective buyer really has no option other than honouring travel credits at full or close to full face value if they hope to bank on customer loyalty shoring up their market share on the other side, . That contingent debt becomes pretty much non-negotiable.
That's conservatively a $1 billion hit to revenue that any buyer is going to have to suck up in their first year of flying.
So, yeah, that odd shaped brownish object bobbing up and down at the deep end of the pool, that's not a Chokito.
