Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Worldwide > Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
Reload this Page >

20 buyers now circling Virgin Australia

Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

20 buyers now circling Virgin Australia

Old 28th Aug 2020, 23:32
  #1001 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 600
Originally Posted by Sunfish View Post
Mick, thank you for your reply.

I label this a threat because Deloitte allegedly used the word “May” in the video.



To me, that is a direct threat. I note the Commonwealth is silent on this ATM, however we already know Deloitte has been talking to Canberra. Such an issue would depend on how an asset sale was structured. I don’t think Bain and Deloitte would like to see their potential workforce evaporate just yet.
Okey doke, thanks for that explanation. You can possibly understand that not everybody would construe that language as being threatening.
MickG0105 is offline  
Old 28th Aug 2020, 23:47
  #1002 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 483
The bloke had virtually zero airline experience when he came into the job

Well, that is incorrect. Just over seven years combined Qantas and Ansett and a short tenure as part of Rex start-up. Anyway - having depth in the industry does not determine success. What determines success is having good (and smart) people around you and being able to make well-informed and smart decisions.
T-Vasis is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 01:20
  #1003 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 600
Originally Posted by T-Vasis View Post
Well, that is incorrect. Just over seven years combined Qantas and Ansett and a short tenure as part of Rex start-up.
Fair point. I should have said 'virtually zero airline experience in the current century'.

Originally Posted by T-Vasis View Post
Anyway - having depth in the industry does not determine success. What determines success is having good (and smart) people around you and being able to make well-informed and smart decisions.
Okey doke, so let's apply those metrics of success.

Having good and smart people around you and being able to make well-informed and smart decisions. How do you reckon he scores on that?

Exhibit A. He brought back Keith Neate as CFO. Within three months of Neate's return to the business they had racked up $995.7 million in debt (the $325 million Australian bonds issue on 26 November and the $670.7 million ($US 425 million) US bonds issue on 7 November). They used $711.1 million of that to fund the Velocity re-acquisition transaction; paying $700 million to buy back 35 per cent of the business that was sold in 2014 for $335 million. Leaving aside the fact that the re-acquisition itself would take at least six years to break even, that transaction and the associated debt raising comprehensively tanked the balance sheet - the business had negative net equity. It was the equivalent of selling not only your final, contingency and alternate reserves but a bit of your trip fuel to boot.

Exhibit B - the rightsizing fiasco. The business's most significant cost control measure that two months after its nominated completion date had failed to achieve 20 per cent of its targeted savings.

Exhibit C - being essentially clueless on the actual financial status of his business. Again, his appointee as CFO was apparently incapable of discerning that the business they were running was insolvent. It's bad enough that that happened at all but the fact that they traded insolvent for three weeks past a month end is pretty much inexcusable.

If you wanted to pick over the bones you could probably add Exhibit D - the Haneda strategy to the list. We'll never know whether swapping out Hong Kong for Haneda would have been a successful play for international or not but there was always a certain lack of logic to moving from one tightly contested route with two direct competitors to a similarly tightly contested route with three direct competitors.

I have no doubt that the current CEO is popular but that's most assuredly not the same as being competent.

Last edited by MickG0105; 29th Aug 2020 at 01:22. Reason: Typo
MickG0105 is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 01:54
  #1004 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: NT
Posts: 186
Originally Posted by Blackout View Post
HAHA ok Chook,

I'm not waiting for the shit to hit the fan... From what I see!

EA's dont have to be agreed too.

Take care mate

ha ha
what’s the “A” in EA then matey??
its like you can’t help posting rubbish
chookcooker is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 02:00
  #1005 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 51
Originally Posted by chookcooker View Post
ha ha
what’s the “A” in EA then matey??
its like you can’t help posting rubbish
I suspect the ‘A’ in agreement will be much like the vote on the DOCA, it won’t be a choice.
Boeingpilot738 is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 02:15
  #1006 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: NT
Posts: 186
Originally Posted by Boeingpilot738 View Post
I suspect the ‘A’ in agreement will be much like the vote on the DOCA, it won’t be a choice.
maybe. Maybe not, it’s still an agreement.
it’s also crystal balling and a touch of hysteria.

question: if big bad Bains cunning plan is to move 737 pilots onto pt25 to then only pay 25% redundancy, why aren’t they doing that with the wide body crew???why are they allowing any early retirement or VR on the narrow body at current rates, when according to some, it will be 25% of that in a few months time.
Are the being generous? That doesn’t suit the narrative.

Answer is that it’s not that easy despite what some might think.


Last edited by chookcooker; 29th Aug 2020 at 02:46.
chookcooker is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 02:44
  #1007 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: NT
Posts: 186
Originally Posted by Blackout View Post
Whats the A in HAHA matey?

Ever heard of the FWC?

Are you just here to piss people off?? Ive noticed your attitude, and how you get all angry, post shit, then delete it. And thats just not with me!

Although, I have nothing against you.

Its a nice day outside. Go for a walk .

Quite ironically I deleted the post because I was heading out on a walk and thought i thought it needed additional context. Regardless, you quoted it so it’s easy for me to paste:

“Originally Posted by chookcooker
a) no you said “”Liquidated when legally, it probably should of been” It’s been sold as a going concern, which is pretty much proof that at no point up until now it should ever have simply been liquidated.



b) and c) redundancy payout isn’t based on ramp up MOU terms. It’s in the bit you quoted “ordinary hours worked” of which a Memorandum if Understanding clearly isn’t “ordinary”
any new EA has to be agreed to and will take time.

You quite clearly have been expecting the “shit to hit the fan” for a while now. And looks like you’re still hoping/waiting.

so I’ll stand by my original observation thanks.
Feel free to ignore me too like you did Mick when it became convenient.”



Not sure what in the above you somehow construe as me “getting all angry”

Perhaps you should take some of your own advice.

chookcooker is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 03:11
  #1008 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 51
Originally Posted by chookcooker View Post
maybe. Maybe not, it’s still an agreement.
it’s also crystal balling and a touch of hysteria.

question: if big bad Bains cunning plan is to move 737 pilots onto pt25 to then only pay 25% redundancy, why aren’t they doing that with the wide body crew???why are they allowing any early retirement or VR on the narrow body at current rates, when according to some, it will be 25% of that in a few months time.
Are the being generous? That doesn’t suit the narrative.

Answer is that it’s not that easy despite what some might think.
I’m not buying into hysteria but you really think when it’s put out for vote there won’t be a “the alternative to this agreement not being voted up is.....” statement? What’s in it is indeed crystal balling but the process will no doubt be something along those lines.
Boeingpilot738 is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 03:13
  #1009 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 483
Mick, I am not sure why you provided a narrative with your perspective on Paul/VA's performance? You may need to reread my response. I said that what determines success is having good (and smart) people around you and making well-informed, smart decisions.

I can't see where I implied this was the case for VA? My first part responded to your incorrect assertion that Paul did not have 'airline experience'. I then proceeded to provide my synopsis of how success comes about. Not a defence for VA's leadership team and/or business strategy?

Whilst I am here - I might also counter the 'lack of airline experience' narrative, generally. John had over 30 years of 'airline experience'. How did that go at VA...
T-Vasis is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 03:49
  #1010 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 600
Originally Posted by T-Vasis View Post
Mick, I am not sure why you provided a narrative with your perspective on Paul/VA's performance? You may need to reread my response. I said that what determines success is having good (and smart) people around you and making well-informed, smart decisions.
Thanks for the reply. I was simply running your metrics for what determines success over the current case.

And let's be clear, in support of my perspective I provided objective and verifiable examples. You may not agree with the perspective but the facts of the matter are easy to check.

Originally Posted by T-Vasis View Post
My first part responded to your incorrect assertion that Paul did not have 'airline experience'.
Maybe you need to re-read my original post.

Originally Posted by MickG0105 View Post
The bloke had virtually zero airline experience when he came into the job and he then demonstrated an abject inability to get anything meaningfully positive accomplished once he was there.
As you can plainly see I did not say that Paul Scurrah 'did not have 'airline experience''. I'll happily concede the point that semantically 'virtually zero airline experience' and seven years experience, mostly at or below manager-level nearly 20 years ago may not be the same thing.

In any event, you seem to be dwelling on just the first part of the sentence. I also said that he had failed to get anything meaningfully positive accomplished once he was in the job. Have I missed something?
MickG0105 is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 04:34
  #1011 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 483
I was simply running your metrics for what determines success over the current case.
And let's be clear, in support of my perspective I provided objective and verifiable examples. You may not agree with the perspective but the facts of the matter are easy to check.
But why run the metric? My comment has no relationship with VA. It is a generalist opinion. You'd only 'run the metric' on the basis that I implied Paul and his team were 'good' and 'smart' people i.e. to counter my view and show 'objective and verifiable examples' that this what not the case. I'm not sure why?

Maybe you need to re-read my original post.
For some reason, you tried to navigate around your original comment by expanding its boundaries to soften its accuracy. Paul has airline experience. You said he 'virtually had zero'. That is defined as 'nearly or almost no quantity or number'.

As you can plainly see I did not say that Paul Scurrah 'did not have 'airline experience''. I'll happily concede the point that semantically 'virtually zero airline experience' and seven years experience, mostly at or below manager-level nearly 20 years ago may not be the same thing.

In any event, you seem to be dwelling on just the first part of the sentence. I also said that he had failed to get anything meaningfully positive accomplished once he was in the job. Have I missed something?

I've explained above. Not dwelling - just calling out where an argument lacks accuracy and balance of facts. He also (eventually) operated at 'GM' level - relatively senior in those days/structures. Notwithstanding his extensive senior commercial experience within the travel industry and subsequent running of transport, and port and supply chain business'.

With regards to his performance that you allude to in your second part; that isn't being debated, or at least not by me in any of my posts.
T-Vasis is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 04:36
  #1012 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: NSW
Posts: 100
Originally Posted by MickG0105 View Post
Fair point. I should have said 'virtually zero airline experience in the current century'.


Okey doke, so let's apply those metrics of success.

Having good and smart people around you and being able to make well-informed and smart decisions. How do you reckon he scores on that?

Exhibit A. He brought back Keith Neate as CFO. Within three months of Neate's return to the business they had racked up $995.7 million in debt (the $325 million Australian bonds issue on 26 November and the $670.7 million ($US 425 million) US bonds issue on 7 November). They used $711.1 million of that to fund the Velocity re-acquisition transaction; paying $700 million to buy back 35 per cent of the business that was sold in 2014 for $335 million. Leaving aside the fact that the re-acquisition itself would take at least six years to break even, that transaction and the associated debt raising comprehensively tanked the balance sheet - the business had negative net equity. It was the equivalent of selling not only your final, contingency and alternate reserves but a bit of your trip fuel to boot.

Exhibit B - the rightsizing fiasco. The business's most significant cost control measure that two months after its nominated completion date had failed to achieve 20 per cent of its targeted savings.

Exhibit C - being essentially clueless on the actual financial status of his business. Again, his appointee as CFO was apparently incapable of discerning that the business they were running was insolvent. It's bad enough that that happened at all but the fact that they traded insolvent for three weeks past a month end is pretty much inexcusable.

If you wanted to pick over the bones you could probably add Exhibit D - the Haneda strategy to the list. We'll never know whether swapping out Hong Kong for Haneda would have been a successful play for international or not but there was always a certain lack of logic to moving from one tightly contested route with two direct competitors to a similarly tightly contested route with three direct competitors.

I have no doubt that the current CEO is popular but that's most assuredly not the same as being competent.


I agree with you. JB proved that popularity and blowing smoke does not equate with business acumen. PS was very slow out of the box on reform which indicates to me that the task was either not fully understood or too big for him to grasp. Don't mention the Board who obviously didn't have clue what was happening..
TBM-Legend is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 05:32
  #1013 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: Earth
Posts: 18
Mick, I for one thank you for what you have brought to this thread. Factual, informative and without pulling punches.
murder most fowl is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 08:59
  #1014 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 600
Thumbs up

Originally Posted by T-Vasis View Post
But why run the metric?
Why not? Is it subject to a licencing agreement or some such?

Originally Posted by T-Vasis View Post
For some reason, you tried to navigate around your original comment by expanding its boundaries to soften its accuracy. Paul has airline experience. You said he 'virtually had zero'. That is defined as 'nearly or almost no quantity or number'.
No, I have not tried to navigate around my original comment at all. What I did was point out to you what I actually said. I did not say that he did not have airline experience.

More to the point, is there some part of 'I'll happily concede the point that semantically 'virtually zero airline experience' and seven years experience, mostly at or below manager-level nearly 20 years ago may not be the same thing.' that you are unclear on?

Originally Posted by T-Vasis View Post
He also (eventually) operated at 'GM' level - relatively senior in those days/structures.
So it is probably worth disclosing here that I was a GM at Ansett when Paul Scurrah joined the business as a manager and when he was later promoted to GM. I've got a pretty fair handle on the relative seniority of the GM role and an equally good appreciation of The Last Days of the Roman Empire deck chair filling that was in train on the Sales side of the house back then.

Originally Posted by T-Vasis View Post
With regards to his performance that you allude to in your second part; that isn't being debated, or at least not by me in any of my posts.
Super! Then I trust you won't demur further if some of the rest of us want to discuss that?
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​

MickG0105 is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 09:01
  #1015 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 600
Originally Posted by murder most fowl View Post
Mick, I for one thank you for what you have brought to this thread. Factual, informative and without pulling punches.
Thanks MMF, nice of you to post that.
MickG0105 is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 11:01
  #1016 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: BAO
Posts: 0
Grrr Recent Times/ and PPRuNe Culture.......

So- with all these 'aliases' (single use/burn identities and protagonists) et-al..........., smashing Input/and Personalities!!!!

Have Not- 'Mick' and Co been trading/dealing with 'Self-Evidentiary' Fact (as published, in the Public Domain....), derived from 'their' Own Research/Endeavors .............????, not alot of others 'here', have the inclination!!!!

Cute- 'it' maybe- Momentarily to Snipe, but- 'this' is REAL and not a 'Biatch-Slapping" competition......

Anyhoo- the Best/& be Well
rgds All
S28- BE

Last edited by Section28- BE; 29th Aug 2020 at 11:16. Reason: 1, 2, 3.........
Section28- BE is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 12:18
  #1017 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 221
At the risk of getting back on thread,

It was noted in the administrators report that a principal cause for Virgin’s poor financial state was an attempt to move from a LCC to a full service carrier, and to take on Qantas in that market. That change to the business plan failed.

Yet, it appears that the administrators preferred buyer, Bain, have stated that they will continue with the same business model (minus the widebodies).

What am I missing?
Derfred is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 12:56
  #1018 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 221
Aviation will probably be back to near normal within 12 months (domestic). Maybe 18 months if it goes really bad.

So my question stands... What are Bain going to do to change what JB failed to do?

Change the EBA’s? That remains to be seen (or voted upon).

Qantas have already reacted by outsourcing all their below wing work. They are already positioning themselves to compete with a potential lower-cost-base full-service competitor.

Maybe Bain are “that good”.

... or maybe Bain will actually persuade their employees to sign such poor EBA’s that Qantas can’t possibly compete with.



Derfred is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 14:05
  #1019 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Land of Oz
Posts: 219
Originally Posted by Derfred View Post

Qantas have already reacted by outsourcing all their below wing work. They are already positioning themselves to compete with a potential lower-cost-base full-service competitor.
Nothing to do with lowering costs and competing with a leaner VA IMHO. It’s ideology. AJ could never have pulled this off without Covid, the Courts wouldn’t have allowed it. But with Covid.......everything’s possible.....
No Idea Either is offline  
Old 29th Aug 2020, 16:17
  #1020 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 221
Yeah, I noted that theory myself a couple of days ago. But TLS himself is on record stating that they need to prepare to fight a leaner competitor.
Derfred is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2021 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.