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"Virgin Australia Mk II could launch in as little as three months"

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"Virgin Australia Mk II could launch in as little as three months"

Old 28th Apr 2020, 01:04
  #181 (permalink)  
 
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When Peter Hedge from PWC first shut the doors on Ansett that September 14 in 2001, and the two Marks rode in a week later to save the day, there was one thing with which they could rely on. A Market. And it still failed.

My fear, is that this pandemic will have such profound and long lasting consequences that there simply will not be sufficient demand for any sort of meaningful recovery of the aviation sector. Certainly not in the short term, and definitely not to the extent we have seen in the previous 2 decades.

Hopefully Im wrong?
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 01:10
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Is there an argument for saying that no player will want to be involved in a Virgin replacement until the domestic market is back up and running - because that could be well into next year.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 01:27
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Originally Posted by Rashid Bacon
Is there an argument for saying that no player will want to be involved in a Virgin replacement until the domestic market is back up and running - because that could be well into next year.
I'd dare say if VA is gone and a new player enters in its place, they would want to get going on a very limited schedule quite quickly to build up some brand recognition and gradually increase in size as demand dictates into mid/late next year and beyond.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 01:56
  #184 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by KRUSTY 34
... there was one thing with which they could rely on. A Market. And it still failed.
Yes, but it failed because two greedy opportunists were caught out & when their bluff was called, they scurried away.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 03:51
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Originally Posted by Buster Hyman
Yes, but it failed because two greedy opportunists were caught out & when their bluff was called, they scurried away.
Correct BH.

But there was still a demand for services for Virgin Blue to fill.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 05:50
  #186 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by KRUSTY 34
Correct BH.

But there was still a demand for services for Virgin Blue to fill.
Yes, agreed. The market was somewhat diminished due to uncertainty, but absolutely, there was an opportunity to grab a slice of it. K&M were too busy building their Empire to notice they were being played...but I doubt they cared anyway.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 06:46
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Originally Posted by Buster Hyman
Yes, agreed. The market was somewhat diminished due to uncertainty, but absolutely, there was an opportunity to grab a slice of it. K&M were too busy building their Empire to notice they were being played...but I doubt they cared anyway.
Not sure of the actual amount, but I did hear M&M pocketed over $100 mil off the Ansett carcass. Not bad for 12 months work. I wonder how much the final liquidator will make on the hopes and dreams of 10,000 Virgin employees?

like I said, I hope Im wrong.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 07:08
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Perhaps a new Airline starting up could be called " Ponzi Air" -) Kinda fits the Airline game very well!
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 08:20
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I wonder how much the final liquidator will make on the hopes and dreams of 10,000 Virgin employees?
Don't know about the final one, but Deloitte is set to make at least $ 35 million from Virgin.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 10:14
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So- HERE 'we' do GO....., Then!!

Bulky 'stuff' and shall just plant 'it' here/on this thread.................., as opposed to the 3/or 4x options.

Nil 'Minutes' of today's proceedings, yet.

Way Too much to load and 'dissect'- should 'you' be In it, review the submissions/'Related Documents' listed on the Administrators Virgin page today- dating back/lodged with 'the' Court prior/preceding today's events/or statutory requirements, as it were:

Deloitte/VAH link: https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/page...sidiaries.html

'It', does look to be- ON????

Rgds all
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 10:14
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
I believe the first creditors meeting is this Thursday 30 April. They applied to the court to allow a video conference.
I'll be very interested to learn what Virgin's cash balance was when they entered administration because there's something not quite right with how they went from ostensibly having 'a cash position in excess of $1 billion' on 13 March according to their advice to the ASX to 'fighting to survive on a day-to-day basis' according to Aggs on 17 April. Most analysts thought that $1 billion would have given them variously between three to eight months of runway and yet there they were just 38 days later trying to scrounge a $200 million grant to get through the next two weeks.

Something most assuredly does not add up there.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 10:29
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Mick, look up the definitions of being “liquid” (having cash) and being solvent. Virgin may not be solvent, but it is currently liquid.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 10:58
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
Mick, look up the definitions of being liquid (having cash) and being solvent. Virgin may not be solvent, but it is currently liquid.
I understand the difference between liquidity versus solvency. Until you know what their current cash balance is you really can't comment on the former.

I want to know if their 13 March 2020 ASX filing that 'The group currently has a cash position in excess of $1 billion ...' was correct. Either they have torched cash at the rate of more than $25 million a day whilst hibernating the business or they had less than $1 billion on 13 March. If it's the latter then PS has an additional problem.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 10:58
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
I'll be very interested to learn what Virgin's cash balance was when they entered administration because there's something not quite right with how they went from ostensibly having 'a cash position in excess of $1 billion' on 13 March according to their advice to the ASX to 'fighting to survive on a day-to-day basis' according to Aggs on 17 April. Most analysts thought that $1 billion would have given them variously between three to eight months of runway and yet there they were just 38 days later trying to scrounge a $200 million grant to get through the next two weeks.
Something most assuredly does not add up there.
Absolutley. With their rate of haemorrhage the money being burned would have sped up week by week, but the alleged $1b in cash being almost depleted already, if true, is totally bizzare and not possible under normal circumstances. Im not sure they would have gotten 6 months out of the $1b, but certainly 3 to 4 months would be the target, not 38 days!! Sounds to me like Paul, Keith, Stu and Elizabeth have been busy applying copious amounts of turd polish, and now the polish has run out it has exposed just how big the turd is! Meanwhile, Ill Deuche counts his $40m and his earnings from serving on the BAC Board, doing nothing while the airport has effectively come to a stop! Its good to be the king.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 11:15
  #195 (permalink)  
 
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Strewth, that:

"Either they have torched cash at the rate of more than $25 million a day whilst hibernating the business or they had less than $1 billion on 13 March. If it's the latter then PS has an additional problem."
Right THERE is one ripper question, on so many (as in More than 1x) levels, in a 'continuous disclosure' environment- 'just' sayin................????

"Time'- shall reveal, the............

Rgds all
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 11:32
  #196 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Paragraph377
Absolutley. With their rate of haemorrhage the money being burned would have sped up week by week, but the alleged $1b in cash being almost depleted already, if true, is totally bizzare and not possible under normal circumstances. I’m not sure they would have gotten 6 months out of the $1b, but certainly 3 to 4 months would be the target, not 38 days!! Sounds to me like Paul, Keith, Stu and Elizabeth have been busy applying copious amounts of turd polish, and now the polish has run out it has exposed just how big the turd is! Meanwhile, Ill Deuche counts his $40m and his earnings from serving on the BAC Board, doing nothing while the airport has effectively come to a stop! It’s good to be the king.
Yes. So there's turd polishing and then there's sections 1308 and 1309 of the Corporations Act 2001.

I had always thought that the 'cash position in excess of $1 billion' had to have been a stretch. We know that their audited cash position as at 30 June 2019 was $1,740.0 m and as at 31 December 2019, it was $1,107.6 m. That's an average burn of $105.4 m per month over what is generally the better half of the FY. Given the fires in January and the international travel restrictions kicking in in February I just couldn't see them having preserved that $1,107.6 m for two and a half months.

Any old how, time will tell. Well, it should but having Captain Schettino back on the bridge of the salvage boat is at the very least perplexing.

Last edited by MickG0105; 28th Apr 2020 at 11:36. Reason: Added Costa Concordia reference
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 11:47
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Originally Posted by Blackout
Another twist in the Virgin Australia saga. According to the linked article, Ill Deuche borrowed the $150m from Velocity Rewards back in 2014. The plot thickens. Seems like Borghetti’s creative accounting tricks are being revealed. A loan of that nature would have been sanctioned by the Board. And I wonder exactly when was the money borrowed and applied to the VA business? Wouldn’t have been done just before the annual report by chance, to make VA’s bottom line look healthier than it actually was?? This mess smells worse by the day.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 12:09
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If above is true, the entire board (including the chairman) need to be bought before the court and held to account for their actions! They have the final approval on such matters

Most board members are members on other company boards. Maybe some skeletons from the closet are coming out?

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Old 28th Apr 2020, 13:14
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This is getting worse by the day
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 16:04
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DC, it may not be the Board, there are these characters called Auditors. I wonder how well they are sleeping tonight. Me? Im awake waiting for the ibuprofen to kick in for a sore shoulder.
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