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Private equity take-over for Virgin Australia?

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Private equity take-over for Virgin Australia?

Old 21st Apr 2020, 03:12
  #61 (permalink)  
 
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Surely saving face. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing again and expecting a different outcome.
Whatever survives or is reincarnated out of this disaster, it won't be anywhere near as big, fly anywhere near as many routes, or employ anywhere near as many people.
.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 03:49
  #62 (permalink)  
 
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The number of people on here, in the media and in public that wants to see Virgin Australia fail and 10,000 immediate staff plus 6000+ ancillary staff lose everything is disgusting. I hope you ALL suffer the same one day. You deserve it.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 03:56
  #63 (permalink)  
 
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The cost of fuel is paramount for airlines. As you may be aware the cost of crude oil is down overnight. If you can store it you can have it for nothing, a little like free money. You may be aware of negative interest rates for money. This is where the bank pay you to have it which is coming soon to a bank near you. After there was little interest in free oil overnight the price dropped to negative territory. If you can accept the oil you only get it for nothing we will pay you USD35 per barrel to take it off our hands.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 04:23
  #64 (permalink)  
 
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You're wrong. Not a single person I know wants to see the 10,000 staff out of work. Arguing against what was effectively going to be a $1.4 billion dollar gift to the foreign owners does not mean people want to see VA staff lose their jobs. The fact is you were hostages in negotiations with the government who in the end refused to pay the ransom money.

That $1.4 billion "loan" was going to quickly end up in Abu Dhabi, Singapore, Beijing and Necker Island and allow them to minimize their losses. Three months down the track, your jobs were still going to be toast. Covid19 merely speeded up what was going to be an inevitable outcome - there was never any coming back from that $5 billion debt.

The best outcome now is that with voluntary administration, the slate gets wiped clean and the madness and incompetence of previous years management gets expunged and a new operator takes over and most jobs are returned. Everyone's fingers are crossed for this outcome. Meanwhile there is government assistance available for the short term, not great but better than nothing.

Importantly the government needs to step up be helpful and remove all their bureaucratic red tape and unnecessary costs to the new operator for the first few years of VA2
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 04:35
  #65 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tommy Bahama View Post
Considering all the "smiles", "back slapping", "she'll be right mate" and "don't worry we've got your backs" from Virgin and Deloitte can someone explain why if its such a great idea this Voluntary Administration wasn't undertaken years ago?

The way its being promoted its all "fun in the sun". One would hope those who have far exceeded their station in life wont get away with it this time and will be held accountable.
Also, if a sufficient-but-small number of creditors object, they can force the company into liquidation - for example, if the creditors think they'll get a better return if the company and its assets are broken up and sold off, compared to if they take a haircut on their loans.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 04:37
  #66 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lucille View Post
Importantly the government needs to step up be helpful and remove all their bureaucratic red tape and unnecessary costs to the new operator for the first few years of VA2
This bit is what matters most.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 04:55
  #67 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Servo View Post
The number of people on here, in the media and in public that wants to see Virgin Australia fail and 10,000 immediate staff plus 6000+ ancillary staff lose everything is disgusting. I hope you ALL suffer the same one day. You deserve it.
You may find a number already have.
You may also find that Virgin played a part in that.
You may also find that unlike Virgin people in 2001, QF and others will not be holding hangar parties.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 05:03
  #68 (permalink)  
 
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Please everyone take a breath.
A few weeks back I said in a different thread how everything has changed permanently. Now it has. Many many people are affected by this and the VA group are just 2% of the total put out in the last month.

The sun will still come up and the way things were are no longer, having lived through and airline shut downs from both sides of the fence and been wiped out, this is going to hurt, but its not all over for everyone.

VA's will be rebirthed as a leaner beast most probably under the Tiger AOC with 737's only VAH will continue in administration as long as the administrator funds are paid and I believe they made application to the high court this morning to have $35M of VA's cash reserves allocated to the administration. VARA will be pumped for cash but its worth nothing except the value of its contracts to run, the A320s are leased and the F100's need refleeting in the next few years, getting more F100's a few years ago was nothing more than kicking the can down the road...… that can has now gone down a drain.

While a lot of people here are pleading for investors because they have vested interests in VA being airborne, there are just as many that have interests in VAH being sunk and the debt never coming back. The key here people is who controls the debt and where is the market.

At this point in time, given there is a $160M+ lifeline from the Govt out there that should be the best indicator that any company cant see enough seats to stay alive...… so where is the market? At this point gone, macroeconomic factors point towards a big recession that will be the likes of SARS and GFC combined, 800,000+ bread winners out of pocket and there is the true picture of discretionary spending.

SRB running about saying "we'll be back & its just the beginning" makes me think he's dropped a bit too much acid while in lockdown, and PS saying we've dropped airfares 37%...…. and without us it will go back up …. yes and rightly bloody so ! because if you had banked some of the funds.... (and paid tax on it....maybe if they had put into the economy as a corporation then they would get help out) then you might not be trying to decide if you could afford the lube that is coming with that pineapple or not.

Either way, when the cab fare to the airport is more than the cost of the flight something is wrong, very wrong and now is where the story concludes.

This is the flush the bowl needed, there will be pain sure, but a fresh lavender smell afterwards and maybe, just maybe some in management will realise that there is no volume because the punters don't have jobs and they will be after yield and people will pay what they should have. Domestic travel in the US is not cheap so what is it here. Do we need 20 flights a day between ports on the J curve?? certainly not now, hopefully not again.

This is the harsh reality of what we face industry wide. But please don't ever think you are alone, and I can tell you right now there are people doing it a lot worse than you are.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 05:17
  #69 (permalink)  

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I think it will smell more like Glenn 20 mate.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 05:56
  #70 (permalink)  
 
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Well said T-Bags.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 06:20
  #71 (permalink)  
 
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The number of people on here, in the media and in public that wants to see Virgin Australia fail and 10,000 immediate staff plus 6000+ ancillary staff lose everything is disgusting. I hope you ALL suffer the same one day. You deserve it.

Yep. Been there done that. No thanks.

And to KordaMentha. Get stuffed.

halas
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 07:12
  #72 (permalink)  
 
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The number of people on here, in the media and in public that wants to see Virgin Australia fail and 10,000 immediate staff plus 6000+ ancillary staff lose everything is disgusting. I hope you ALL suffer the same one day. You deserve it.
Exactly right. About 10 years ago when it looked like Qantas will be making pilots redundant I witnessed other people very happy about it. As you said, be careful what you wish for.

Myself, for all the good people there, I sincerely hope Virgin survives.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 07:59
  #73 (permalink)  
 
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Not only do I think Virgin will survive but it will prosper, especially if purchased by Macquarie Bank or Wesfarmers. Alan Joyce’s worst nightmare. Karma.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 08:00
  #74 (permalink)  
 
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I agree. IF you could pick it up without the Virgin baggage it would be a good operation. Bit like KD and ZL when AN packed up
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 08:05
  #75 (permalink)  
 
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The business is going to survive, that’s reasonably clear. The question is what will it look like. No job losses seems like a bit of a pipe dream, but remember all of tiger and all of VANZ have already been made redundant, so it is not inconceivable that the remaining staff can be held onto. Speculation would suggest the 330’s are done, but there leases can now be renegotiated, so they may have another lease of life yet. Against that is the businesses stated objective to have a single type wide body fleet, so it wouldn’t make much sense to fight to keep two.

unlikey, but plausible that the RIN as a result of redundancies may provide enough space to absorb 330 Pilots. I can’t see it, but it’s not out of the question. In any case none of these issues are questions for the administrators or current execs. The new owners will call those shots. Pretty clearly though, Deloitte have been selected because their preference is to save jobs, not break it up. Again though, that will be a decision for the new owners.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 08:25
  #76 (permalink)  
 
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Meanwhile at Qantas Alan will have to find the money to make both pilots and FAs redundant and deal with an inappropriate fleet internationally while his main cash cow (domestic) is under the pump from a reinvigorated Virgin.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 08:37
  #77 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
Meanwhile at Qantas Alan will have to find the money to make both pilots and FAs redundant and deal with an inappropriate fleet internationally while his main cash cow (domestic) is under the pump from a reinvigorated Virgin.
Wow!

Is that a bong or 3 paper you guys are smokin......... I want some!!



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Old 21st Apr 2020, 08:56
  #78 (permalink)  
 
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Neither, why do you think he has been so quiet the last 3 weeks? This hasn’t panned out the way he wanted.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 09:00
  #79 (permalink)  
 
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Well if Voluntary Administration is going to result in a better and brighter Virgin operation like some are suggesting perhaps Qantas should do the same.... I mean it seems to be the logical choice. Why aren’t more companies doing it?

I reckon Alan has been quiet as he got a smack on the hand for some of the statements he made, also he is busy trying to figure out how to ramp things up again and how many jobs, if any, that are going to go and when.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 09:00
  #80 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
Meanwhile at Qantas Alan will have to find the money to make both pilots and FAs redundant and deal with an inappropriate fleet internationally while his main cash cow (domestic) is under the pump from a reinvigorated Virgin.
Well that puts the Christian religion in a pickle now, apparently the Second Coming has just happened, its name is Deloitte and within 24 hours of going into VolAdmin its all sorted, back to normal with an unlimited potential for the future!
As a bonus QF and AJ are done and dusted!

Seriously??
Now and the weeks ahead is when Deloitte REALLY find out what they have to deal with, if anyone thinks there won't be surprises for the Administrators as they delve further they're kidding themselves IMHO.

I DO believe VA potentially in a better position than AN was some 19 years ago however arguably the CO19 crap and international economic carnage it's dealt make the future less guessable than in AN days.

Best of luck to a good outcome for VA but anyone reckoning they know the outcome - when the crapshoot's just beginning and Deloitte's just starting - is a brave individual indeed.
Or full of bullshit!

Cheers.


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