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Air NZ pilot redundancies

Old 29th Apr 2020, 07:57
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US routes were doing better than expected apparently.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 16:31
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Originally Posted by ElZilcho
I'm not so sure it'll lead to more Job losses.

As I said above, Wages and Fuel make up approx $2.6B of the $4.6B Annual expenses. Fuel is obviously way down and wages are dropping with redundancies. There's another $2B of expenses there which will need addressing.
Jet Pilot wages have probably reduced from ~$230M to ~$175M after Redundancies and the 14% Paycut.

If they make another 200 Pilots redundant, that could reduce the wage bill by another ~$25M, but also risks the remaining Pilots voting against extending the 14% cut beyond 9 rosters. It would also ground the Airbus fleet and require even more down-training.... $25M will not save Air NZ.

I expect we'll be asked to take a larger % Paycut before they make more Pilots Redundant.That's the only solution that keeps Pilots in their current seats, removing the need to re-shuffle everyone, and the only way to reduce the costs of the higher paid Pilots who are protected from Redundancy by Seniority.
Fuel *won't* be way doiwn - it'll be exactly where it was when the beancounters hedged it, which is a few (or more...) degrees north of today's spot prices
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 18:43
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Originally Posted by RevMan2
Fuel *won't* be way doiwn - it'll be exactly where it was when the beancounters hedged it, which is a few (or more...) degrees north of today's spot prices
Yes, fuel was hedged, how much and at what rate I'm not sure. However I wasn't referring to the cost per tonne, but the fact that 95% of the fleets grounded thus we aren't burning $1.3B this FY.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 02:32
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Originally Posted by Anti Skid On
The latter bit is a really interesting statement. I have often thought that the bods in route planning have made some 'interesting' decisions. For example, who thought Buenos Aires was a good idea, especially when there was a competition to the same region via Latam? NZ has had an influx of people from India; would it not have been better to tap that market with a direct route. Were all the US routes making money (thinking Chicago, Houston, etc)?
Anti Skid On They talked about this last year on a Pilot Expo Day. They looked at India closely, particularly with the demand. But the issue is around the aircraft that would have to be operated on the route, as those from India are notoriously price conscious (read: do not fly in premium).

For example (let's call premium = Premium Economy, Business or First Class).
Air India B773 has just 39 premium seats. Economy seating of 303 pax.
Air NZ B773 98 premium seats (over 2.5 times the number). Leaving space for only two economy cabins seating 244 pax.
Jet Airways (Indian-based carrier that has folded) had similar; 38 premium to 308 economy.

Boeing 747-400 comparison
Air India B744 has just 38 premium seats, with 385 economy
Air NZ B744 (retired) had 85 premium seats, to 294 economy.

The comparisons get even more start when you compare an Air India 788 vs Air NZ 789 (apples and oranges I know). But:
Air India has just 18 premium seats. Fitting in 238 economy.
Air NZ has 60 premium seats (almost 4 times the number). Only leaving space for 215 economy seats, despite the -9 being over 6m longer (approx. seven rows of seats).

So I've been told it's the balance. Finding a route that (particularly on ULR) is a very business traveller heavy market, but will also appeal to economy pax. Considering that Business Class is where the money is made... It's crucial that this is full. And Buenos Aires obviously ticked the business traveller market box. And India does not.

We do not operate the right config for Indian flights and probably never will.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 11:06
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Looks like Winnie is threatening to shake up Air NZ: Stuff Article. Unfortunately it's going to be too little too late for those drivers shortly to be made redundant. Maybe one of the first questions the nationalised owner will ask is why didn't they accept those voluntary severances from those pilots on the big bucks? They're going to pay them to sit around for 54 weeks anyway...
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 19:40
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Originally Posted by PRD Area
Looks like Winnie is threatening to shake up Air NZ: Stuff Article. Unfortunately it's going to be too little too late for those drivers shortly to be made redundant. Maybe one of the first questions the nationalised owner will ask is why didn't they accept those voluntary severances from those pilots on the big bucks? They're going to pay them to sit around for 54 weeks anyway...
Working link here:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/121...ges-for-air-nz
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 20:52
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Originally Posted by InZed

I can see the last ounce of Forans enthusiasm for this job evaporating if that happens. He's already stated becoming an SOE would be a terrible outcome for the airline.


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Old 30th Apr 2020, 21:36
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Originally Posted by waren9
I can see the last ounce of Forans enthusiasm for this job evaporating if that happens. He's already stated becoming an SOE would be a terrible outcome for the airline.
For the whole Airline or just the Executive?
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 22:07
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Full state ownership may not save anymore jobs and would lead to the airline becoming a political tool used as a bargaining chip every election. Also it would make a joke of competition in NZ, how would Soundsair, Air Chatham, Origin, Jetstar etc possibly complete with a SOE, they would have to be allowed to operate competitively..... hell why not nationalise all of them. You certainly would have to subsidise competitors in some way to level the playing field unless of course you don’t view that their jobs are as important as yours and that is a whole other argument. Any aviation package needs to be distributed fairly to ALL entities that serve NZ.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 23:57
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Its not going to happen anyway, I wouldn't panic. Winnie just thought it was about time for another populist headline.

At worst, the $900m loan will be converted to an increased shareholding diluting everybody elses shares, just like last time.
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Old 1st May 2020, 02:27
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Originally Posted by ElZilcho
For the whole Airline or just the Executive?
For the whole airline - without a shadow of a doubt! God help us!
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Old 1st May 2020, 05:09
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Originally Posted by InZed
Anti Skid On They talked about this last year on a Pilot Expo Day. They looked at India closely, particularly with the demand. But the issue is around the aircraft that would have to be operated on the route, as those from India are notoriously price conscious (read: do not fly in premium).

For example (let's call premium = Premium Economy, Business or First Class).
Air India B773 has just 39 premium seats. Economy seating of 303 pax.
Air NZ B773 98 premium seats (over 2.5 times the number). Leaving space for only two economy cabins seating 244 pax.
Jet Airways (Indian-based carrier that has folded) had similar; 38 premium to 308 economy.

Boeing 747-400 comparison
Air India B744 has just 38 premium seats, with 385 economy
Air NZ B744 (retired) had 85 premium seats, to 294 economy.

The comparisons get even more start when you compare an Air India 788 vs Air NZ 789 (apples and oranges I know). But:
Air India has just 18 premium seats. Fitting in 238 economy.
Air NZ has 60 premium seats (almost 4 times the number). Only leaving space for 215 economy seats, despite the -9 being over 6m longer (approx. seven rows of seats).

So I've been told it's the balance. Finding a route that (particularly on ULR) is a very business traveller heavy market, but will also appeal to economy pax. Considering that Business Class is where the money is made... It's crucial that this is full. And Buenos Aires obviously ticked the business traveller market box. And India does not.

We do not operate the right config for Indian flights and probably never will.
Thank you for your clear and insightful explanation
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Old 1st May 2020, 06:52
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Well said. Terrible times indeed.
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Old 1st May 2020, 10:12
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Originally Posted by waren9
I can see the last ounce of Forans enthusiasm for this job evaporating if that happens. He's already stated becoming an SOE would be a terrible outcome for the airline.
Supermarket sales are hitting record highs. Bonus heaven for Walmart senior management. I would be making the call back to base and getting out of dodge if I was Foran. He has little experience in turn around management so isn't best placed for the role anyway.
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Old 1st May 2020, 11:12
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Originally Posted by MCDU2
Supermarket sales are hitting record highs. Bonus heaven for Walmart senior management. I would be making the call back to base and getting out of dodge if I was Foran. He has little experience in turn around management so isn't best placed for the role anyway.
Foran isn't in it for the money. Who knows, maybe trying to save a corpse flat lining on life support is the sort of challenge he's up for.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 00:09
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This should help a bit

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU20...-the-world.htm
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Old 2nd May 2020, 01:14
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Good news indeed but the money went to several airlines:

‘The first successful applicants were Air New Zealand, China Airlines, Emirates, Freightways Express, Qantas and Tasman Cargo’
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Old 2nd May 2020, 01:33
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Didnt suggest Air NZ was getting all of the money. They should receive a healthy share though. Link has a breakdown of routes and carriers

https://www.transport.govt.nz/air/go...iation-sector/
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Old 10th May 2020, 04:57
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From the sounds of Uncle Greg's email on Friday it looks like redundancy round 2 is coming sooner than we thought.
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Old 10th May 2020, 08:32
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Originally Posted by oldm8ey
From the sounds of Uncle Greg's email on Friday it looks like redundancy round 2 is coming sooner than we thought.
Whilst possible, we’ve been warned not to read too much into company wide information and assume it relates specifically to Pilots. Further redundancies was mentioned in a previous Live-stream with Foran a week or 2 ago, and when the Pilot group followed up with the GM Pilots, she said it was a generic statement and there were no current plans for further Pilot redundancies.

I’d say Air NZ would be treading on legal eggshells if they announced further Pilot redundancies mere weeks after signing a 9 month agreement with us on pay concessions which was supposed to (and did) save 74 jobs. There are, I believe, certain employment laws around bargaining in good faith.

Right now, the notional list for down training and directions is being worked on. I admit, it’s delay has caused me some pause for concern, but it’s no easy task as I expect they’re exploring options to minimise seat changes. Once it’s released however, and the down training begins, any further redundancies would largely effect the Airbus FO ranks and require the notional process to start over again.

The company have told us multiple times they plan to be 70% size post COVID. This has been pushed out another year to April 2022 so I have no doubt they request an extension to the AFFA beyond 9 rosters, but I can’t see more Pilot redundancies on the horizon unless they revise post Covid size to be 60% (for example). Other departments however, who are cheap to lay off and re-hire/train will unfortunately see more cuts.
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