Air NZ pilot redundancies
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Just being realistic here, with all the forecasts for extremely limited international services in the short and medium term. 387 redundancies won’t be nearly enough and will only be the first wave. I hope I’m wrong however.
Let’s hope Air NZ can use the spare capacity for Domestic Australia flights , better than an Asian carrier coming in .
Also hope the unions can work a deal for all to go part time so the redundancy is limited.
Also hope the unions can work a deal for all to go part time so the redundancy is limited.
The last thing that the Flying Koru should do is have anything to do with domestic Australia.
It needs to concentrate on getting domestic back up to speed, albeit at a reduced frequency, and possibly flights to RAR, TBU, APW, IUE and NAN but only if FJ fails.
It needs to concentrate on getting domestic back up to speed, albeit at a reduced frequency, and possibly flights to RAR, TBU, APW, IUE and NAN but only if FJ fails.
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Because there is already an Australia/New Zealand open skies agreement, making it very easy for the government to facilitate Air NZs entry to the Aussie domestic market.
Air New Zealand will have spare airframes for a long time to come. In 6-12 months would they be better served earning revenue in the Aussie market or sitting on the ramp gathering dust. If there is a gap in the market with the collapse of virgin I’m sure there could be a viable business case.
Airwork operate ZK registered 737 freighters domestically in Aus and also have bases here Im lead to believe.
Air New Zealand will have spare airframes for a long time to come. In 6-12 months would they be better served earning revenue in the Aussie market or sitting on the ramp gathering dust. If there is a gap in the market with the collapse of virgin I’m sure there could be a viable business case.
Airwork operate ZK registered 737 freighters domestically in Aus and also have bases here Im lead to believe.
Probably germane to this discussion:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...mestic-airline
"Air New Zealand has said it is planning to be a domestic airline, with limited international services for the foreseeable future. But with potentially a third of the workforce being laid off, and future domestic demand running at 1 per cent — it begs the question: what kind of domestic airline will Air New Zealand be?"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...mestic-airline
"Air New Zealand has said it is planning to be a domestic airline, with limited international services for the foreseeable future. But with potentially a third of the workforce being laid off, and future domestic demand running at 1 per cent — it begs the question: what kind of domestic airline will Air New Zealand be?"
A Domestic Airline with limited International services is obviously what the next 6-12 months look like.. possibly the next 18-24 months if the World really drops the ball with COVID. However, lets get Realistic here for a moment.
Of the 1100(ish) operational Pilots, 650 are on Widebody's and 450 on the Airbus. Wipe 387 off the bottom and there goes 2/3 of the Airbus FO's (and SO's).
Let assume the 777 is never to fly again, that's approximately 250 Captains and FO's who need down training. (We'll ignore the surviving SO's for now)
Lets assume the 787 Workload is halved, that will add another 100 or so Widebody Pilots that need a seat change.
So we have 250 777 Pilots, who are (mostly) Senior to the 787 Pilots, so potentially all 200 787 Pilots will get Down-trained as 250 777 Pilots are allocated the remaining 100 or so 787 Jobs.
Once that's happened, there's now approximately 350 Widebody Pilots to filter down onto the Airbus fleet.. Seniority will be all over the place here due to lifestyle choices and over 65's on the Airbus, but for the most Part, the Widebody Pilots will have seniority and many A320 Pilots will be down-trained.
Of Course, Down-Training is Seniority based but you then need to consider the implications of down-training a Standards Pilot off a Fleet and reducing the training capacity. Then you run into the issue of displacing Queenstown qualified Airbus Pilots, and finally, as Junior Airbus Captains on year 2-3 Pay are replaced by Senior Widebody Pilots on year 12 pay, they wage bill for the Airbus Fleet will increase by $30-$50k per Captain (and similar in the FO Ranks).
Once all of the above has been tidied up and all surviving Pilots have been re-shuffled to their new positions it'll be 2025 and COVID will have either decimated the Planet (in which case the above never happened because everyone lost their jobs), or it'll be well behind us.
The point I'm trying to make, is Logistically, the Airline simply cannot re-shuffle Hundreds of Pilots overnight... and by the time they've finished, COVID will hopefully be behind us.
If they make too many Redundant off the bottom, the Airbus Fleet won't be able to operate. Yes, they can quickly down-train Captains to the RHS, but again, it's Seniority based, meaning any surviving SO's must be appointed first and they require a full course.
Secondly, another Problem with "Last on First off" Redundancies is that the most expensive Pilots (Widebody Captains) are un-touchable yet have very little work if we become a "domestic Airline".
Don't get me wrong, of the 1200 Pilots on the list, I'm in the bottom half and have been polishing up my CV and budgeting on a period of LWOP or Reduced Pay.
This is an extremely complex problem to solve (for all Airlines) due to the Logistics of large scale seat changes.
I expect there's to be a lot of Leave without Pay offers and Part-Time agreements on the table while we navigate COVID.
387 Redundancies might not enough for the April 2021 schedule, but it could well be too many for the April 2022 Schedule.
Anyone got a Crystal Ball?
Of the 1100(ish) operational Pilots, 650 are on Widebody's and 450 on the Airbus. Wipe 387 off the bottom and there goes 2/3 of the Airbus FO's (and SO's).
Let assume the 777 is never to fly again, that's approximately 250 Captains and FO's who need down training. (We'll ignore the surviving SO's for now)
Lets assume the 787 Workload is halved, that will add another 100 or so Widebody Pilots that need a seat change.
So we have 250 777 Pilots, who are (mostly) Senior to the 787 Pilots, so potentially all 200 787 Pilots will get Down-trained as 250 777 Pilots are allocated the remaining 100 or so 787 Jobs.
Once that's happened, there's now approximately 350 Widebody Pilots to filter down onto the Airbus fleet.. Seniority will be all over the place here due to lifestyle choices and over 65's on the Airbus, but for the most Part, the Widebody Pilots will have seniority and many A320 Pilots will be down-trained.
Of Course, Down-Training is Seniority based but you then need to consider the implications of down-training a Standards Pilot off a Fleet and reducing the training capacity. Then you run into the issue of displacing Queenstown qualified Airbus Pilots, and finally, as Junior Airbus Captains on year 2-3 Pay are replaced by Senior Widebody Pilots on year 12 pay, they wage bill for the Airbus Fleet will increase by $30-$50k per Captain (and similar in the FO Ranks).
Once all of the above has been tidied up and all surviving Pilots have been re-shuffled to their new positions it'll be 2025 and COVID will have either decimated the Planet (in which case the above never happened because everyone lost their jobs), or it'll be well behind us.
The point I'm trying to make, is Logistically, the Airline simply cannot re-shuffle Hundreds of Pilots overnight... and by the time they've finished, COVID will hopefully be behind us.
If they make too many Redundant off the bottom, the Airbus Fleet won't be able to operate. Yes, they can quickly down-train Captains to the RHS, but again, it's Seniority based, meaning any surviving SO's must be appointed first and they require a full course.
Secondly, another Problem with "Last on First off" Redundancies is that the most expensive Pilots (Widebody Captains) are un-touchable yet have very little work if we become a "domestic Airline".
Don't get me wrong, of the 1200 Pilots on the list, I'm in the bottom half and have been polishing up my CV and budgeting on a period of LWOP or Reduced Pay.
This is an extremely complex problem to solve (for all Airlines) due to the Logistics of large scale seat changes.
I expect there's to be a lot of Leave without Pay offers and Part-Time agreements on the table while we navigate COVID.
387 Redundancies might not enough for the April 2021 schedule, but it could well be too many for the April 2022 Schedule.
Anyone got a Crystal Ball?
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A Domestic Airline with limited International services is obviously what the next 6-12 months look like.. possibly the next 18-24 months if the World really drops the ball with COVID. However, lets get Realistic here for a moment.
Of the 1100(ish) operational Pilots, 650 are on Widebody's and 450 on the Airbus. Wipe 387 off the bottom and there goes 2/3 of the Airbus FO's (and SO's).
Let assume the 777 is never to fly again, that's approximately 250 Captains and FO's who need down training. (We'll ignore the surviving SO's for now)
Lets assume the 787 Workload is halved, that will add another 100 or so Widebody Pilots that need a seat change.
So we have 250 777 Pilots, who are (mostly) Senior to the 787 Pilots, so potentially all 200 787 Pilots will get Down-trained as 250 777 Pilots are allocated the remaining 100 or so 787 Jobs.
Once that's happened, there's now approximately 350 Widebody Pilots to filter down onto the Airbus fleet.. Seniority will be all over the place here due to lifestyle choices and over 65's on the Airbus, but for the most Part, the Widebody Pilots will have seniority and many A320 Pilots will be down-trained.
Of Course, Down-Training is Seniority based but you then need to consider the implications of down-training a Standards Pilot off a Fleet and reducing the training capacity. Then you run into the issue of displacing Queenstown qualified Airbus Pilots, and finally, as Junior Airbus Captains on year 2-3 Pay are replaced by Senior Widebody Pilots on year 12 pay, they wage bill for the Airbus Fleet will increase by $30-$50k per Captain (and similar in the FO Ranks).
Once all of the above has been tidied up and all surviving Pilots have been re-shuffled to their new positions it'll be 2025 and COVID will have either decimated the Planet (in which case the above never happened because everyone lost their jobs), or it'll be well behind us.
The point I'm trying to make, is Logistically, the Airline simply cannot re-shuffle Hundreds of Pilots overnight... and by the time they've finished, COVID will hopefully be behind us.
If they make too many Redundant off the bottom, the Airbus Fleet won't be able to operate. Yes, they can quickly down-train Captains to the RHS, but again, it's Seniority based, meaning any surviving SO's must be appointed first and they require a full course.
Secondly, another Problem with "Last on First off" Redundancies is that the most expensive Pilots (Widebody Captains) are un-touchable yet have very little work if we become a "domestic Airline".
Don't get me wrong, of the 1200 Pilots on the list, I'm in the bottom half and have been polishing up my CV and budgeting on a period of LWOP or Reduced Pay.
This is an extremely complex problem to solve (for all Airlines) due to the Logistics of large scale seat changes.
I expect there's to be a lot of Leave without Pay offers and Part-Time agreements on the table while we navigate COVID.
387 Redundancies might not enough for the April 2021 schedule, but it could well be too many for the April 2022 Schedule.
Anyone got a Crystal Ball?
Of the 1100(ish) operational Pilots, 650 are on Widebody's and 450 on the Airbus. Wipe 387 off the bottom and there goes 2/3 of the Airbus FO's (and SO's).
Let assume the 777 is never to fly again, that's approximately 250 Captains and FO's who need down training. (We'll ignore the surviving SO's for now)
Lets assume the 787 Workload is halved, that will add another 100 or so Widebody Pilots that need a seat change.
So we have 250 777 Pilots, who are (mostly) Senior to the 787 Pilots, so potentially all 200 787 Pilots will get Down-trained as 250 777 Pilots are allocated the remaining 100 or so 787 Jobs.
Once that's happened, there's now approximately 350 Widebody Pilots to filter down onto the Airbus fleet.. Seniority will be all over the place here due to lifestyle choices and over 65's on the Airbus, but for the most Part, the Widebody Pilots will have seniority and many A320 Pilots will be down-trained.
Of Course, Down-Training is Seniority based but you then need to consider the implications of down-training a Standards Pilot off a Fleet and reducing the training capacity. Then you run into the issue of displacing Queenstown qualified Airbus Pilots, and finally, as Junior Airbus Captains on year 2-3 Pay are replaced by Senior Widebody Pilots on year 12 pay, they wage bill for the Airbus Fleet will increase by $30-$50k per Captain (and similar in the FO Ranks).
Once all of the above has been tidied up and all surviving Pilots have been re-shuffled to their new positions it'll be 2025 and COVID will have either decimated the Planet (in which case the above never happened because everyone lost their jobs), or it'll be well behind us.
The point I'm trying to make, is Logistically, the Airline simply cannot re-shuffle Hundreds of Pilots overnight... and by the time they've finished, COVID will hopefully be behind us.
If they make too many Redundant off the bottom, the Airbus Fleet won't be able to operate. Yes, they can quickly down-train Captains to the RHS, but again, it's Seniority based, meaning any surviving SO's must be appointed first and they require a full course.
Secondly, another Problem with "Last on First off" Redundancies is that the most expensive Pilots (Widebody Captains) are un-touchable yet have very little work if we become a "domestic Airline".
Don't get me wrong, of the 1200 Pilots on the list, I'm in the bottom half and have been polishing up my CV and budgeting on a period of LWOP or Reduced Pay.
This is an extremely complex problem to solve (for all Airlines) due to the Logistics of large scale seat changes.
I expect there's to be a lot of Leave without Pay offers and Part-Time agreements on the table while we navigate COVID.
387 Redundancies might not enough for the April 2021 schedule, but it could well be too many for the April 2022 Schedule.
Anyone got a Crystal Ball?
At the end of the day, International Flying makes up 2/3 of our Schedule.
If we're a Domestic only Airline, then we only need ~300 Pilots resulting in 900 odd redundancies.
If we have 'limited" international sectors, then the borders must be open? If the Borders are open, then slowly people will resume flying again.
In other words, we either need 300 Pilots, or we need 800-900 (still a reduction on current numbers). Anything in between just doesn't add up in my opinion.
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Let’s hope Air NZ can use the spare capacity for Domestic Australia flights , better than an Asian carrier coming in .
Also hope the unions can work a deal for all to go part time so the redundancy is limited.
Also hope the unions can work a deal for all to go part time so the redundancy is limited.
Because there is already an Australia/New Zealand open skies agreement, making it very easy for the government to facilitate Air NZs entry to the Aussie domestic market.
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[QUOTE=
Not a chance with the codeshare agreement in place. In this environment neither party will be wanting to jeopardise this arrangement.[/QUOTE]
Qantas group (Jetstar) operates domestic NZ with this codeshare agreement in place. I don’t see how this would be different
Not a chance with the codeshare agreement in place. In this environment neither party will be wanting to jeopardise this arrangement.[/QUOTE]
Qantas group (Jetstar) operates domestic NZ with this codeshare agreement in place. I don’t see how this would be different
Two things:
If, as I suspect, the limited international is to the Pacific Islands, those flights can be operated by the A321 Neo. Other international will be predominately freight to SHA and possibly LAX for which the 773 is a better option as it can carry more freight than the 789.
I wouldn't expect to see JQ back in Godzone any time soon
If, as I suspect, the limited international is to the Pacific Islands, those flights can be operated by the A321 Neo. Other international will be predominately freight to SHA and possibly LAX for which the 773 is a better option as it can carry more freight than the 789.
I wouldn't expect to see JQ back in Godzone any time soon
Two things:
If, as I suspect, the limited international is to the Pacific Islands, those flights can be operated by the A321 Neo. Other international will be predominately freight to SHA and possibly LAX for which the 773 is a better option as it can carry more freight than the 789.
I wouldn't expect to see JQ back in Godzone any time soon
If, as I suspect, the limited international is to the Pacific Islands, those flights can be operated by the A321 Neo. Other international will be predominately freight to SHA and possibly LAX for which the 773 is a better option as it can carry more freight than the 789.
I wouldn't expect to see JQ back in Godzone any time soon
Jetstar is expecting NZ to be the first domestic operation to ramp up again, it will only be two or three aircraft to start with but they want to protect some market share. The advantage JQ has is a very lean cost base so they will still be able to make some money selling $39 fares, I am not so sure Air NZ can compete on a cost basis, yes Air NZ will dominate but I don’t think JQ keeping their 10% market share is going to be Air NZ’s biggest issue.
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The Link operation should be in a good position to kick start domestic demand. I'm sure under the circumstances punters would tolerate a prop on the WGN - AKL route and even CHC - AKL with the right incentives.
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Qantas group (Jetstar) operates domestic NZ with this codeshare agreement in place. I don’t see how this would be different
If AirNZ decided to expand into Domestic AU and undermine the whole codeshare agreement then it would be ripped up overnight.
I don’t think you understand what the codeshare agreement is or how it works.
An ANZ customer can book a flight from Napier to Perth. They “choose” to travel Napier to Auckland on Air NZ. There is no codeshare on the Tasman so they travel on Air NZ to East Coast AU. If they have the right privileges they can access QF lounges in AU and then “Choose” to codeshare on QF to Perth.
Under this existing arrangement would QF be happy for Air NZ to enter the AU domestic market and operate these services. Why would they when QF will do it it for them?
Air NZ could decided to invest a huge amount of capex to do this but in this current environment it won’t happen. In addition now that they are “frenemies” with QF why would they take on an airline they are working closely with.
It makes no sense.
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You’re a braver man than I to use such definitive statements. I’m not saying Air NZ will fly domestically in Aus, just that if there was a viable business case, they could.
No one knows what the post COVID 19 economy will look like, never mind the aviation sector. Air NZ might decide that utilising $80 million assets that they’re paying leasing fees on anyway, and getting a foothold in the Aussie market stacks up, even if they have to forfeit a codeshare agreement.
Anything is possible
No one knows what the post COVID 19 economy will look like, never mind the aviation sector. Air NZ might decide that utilising $80 million assets that they’re paying leasing fees on anyway, and getting a foothold in the Aussie market stacks up, even if they have to forfeit a codeshare agreement.
Anything is possible