Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Air NZ pilot redundancies

Old 30th Apr 2020, 21:36
  #301 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by waren9 View Post
I can see the last ounce of Forans enthusiasm for this job evaporating if that happens. He's already stated becoming an SOE would be a terrible outcome for the airline.
For the whole Airline or just the Executive?
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 22:07
  #302 (permalink)  
 
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Full state ownership may not save anymore jobs and would lead to the airline becoming a political tool used as a bargaining chip every election. Also it would make a joke of competition in NZ, how would Soundsair, Air Chatham, Origin, Jetstar etc possibly complete with a SOE, they would have to be allowed to operate competitively..... hell why not nationalise all of them. You certainly would have to subsidise competitors in some way to level the playing field unless of course you don’t view that their jobs are as important as yours and that is a whole other argument. Any aviation package needs to be distributed fairly to ALL entities that serve NZ.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 23:57
  #303 (permalink)  
 
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Its not going to happen anyway, I wouldn't panic. Winnie just thought it was about time for another populist headline.

At worst, the $900m loan will be converted to an increased shareholding diluting everybody elses shares, just like last time.
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Old 1st May 2020, 02:27
  #304 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ElZilcho View Post
For the whole Airline or just the Executive?
For the whole airline - without a shadow of a doubt! God help us!
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Old 1st May 2020, 05:09
  #305 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by InZed View Post
Anti Skid On They talked about this last year on a Pilot Expo Day. They looked at India closely, particularly with the demand. But the issue is around the aircraft that would have to be operated on the route, as those from India are notoriously price conscious (read: do not fly in premium).

For example (let's call premium = Premium Economy, Business or First Class).
Air India B773 has just 39 premium seats. Economy seating of 303 pax.
Air NZ B773 98 premium seats (over 2.5 times the number). Leaving space for only two economy cabins seating 244 pax.
Jet Airways (Indian-based carrier that has folded) had similar; 38 premium to 308 economy.

Boeing 747-400 comparison
Air India B744 has just 38 premium seats, with 385 economy
Air NZ B744 (retired) had 85 premium seats, to 294 economy.

The comparisons get even more start when you compare an Air India 788 vs Air NZ 789 (apples and oranges I know). But:
Air India has just 18 premium seats. Fitting in 238 economy.
Air NZ has 60 premium seats (almost 4 times the number). Only leaving space for 215 economy seats, despite the -9 being over 6m longer (approx. seven rows of seats).

So I've been told it's the balance. Finding a route that (particularly on ULR) is a very business traveller heavy market, but will also appeal to economy pax. Considering that Business Class is where the money is made... It's crucial that this is full. And Buenos Aires obviously ticked the business traveller market box. And India does not.

We do not operate the right config for Indian flights and probably never will.
Thank you for your clear and insightful explanation
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Old 1st May 2020, 06:52
  #306 (permalink)  
 
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Well said. Terrible times indeed.
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Old 1st May 2020, 10:12
  #307 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by waren9 View Post
I can see the last ounce of Forans enthusiasm for this job evaporating if that happens. He's already stated becoming an SOE would be a terrible outcome for the airline.
Supermarket sales are hitting record highs. Bonus heaven for Walmart senior management. I would be making the call back to base and getting out of dodge if I was Foran. He has little experience in turn around management so isn't best placed for the role anyway.
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Old 1st May 2020, 11:12
  #308 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MCDU2 View Post
Supermarket sales are hitting record highs. Bonus heaven for Walmart senior management. I would be making the call back to base and getting out of dodge if I was Foran. He has little experience in turn around management so isn't best placed for the role anyway.
Foran isn't in it for the money. Who knows, maybe trying to save a corpse flat lining on life support is the sort of challenge he's up for.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 00:09
  #309 (permalink)  
 
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This should help a bit

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU20...-the-world.htm
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Old 2nd May 2020, 01:14
  #310 (permalink)  
 
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Good news indeed but the money went to several airlines:

‘The first successful applicants were Air New Zealand, China Airlines, Emirates, Freightways Express, Qantas and Tasman Cargo’
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Old 2nd May 2020, 01:33
  #311 (permalink)  
 
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Didnt suggest Air NZ was getting all of the money. They should receive a healthy share though. Link has a breakdown of routes and carriers

https://www.transport.govt.nz/air/go...iation-sector/
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Old 10th May 2020, 04:57
  #312 (permalink)  
 
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From the sounds of Uncle Greg's email on Friday it looks like redundancy round 2 is coming sooner than we thought.
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Old 10th May 2020, 08:32
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Originally Posted by oldm8ey View Post
From the sounds of Uncle Greg's email on Friday it looks like redundancy round 2 is coming sooner than we thought.
Whilst possible, weíve been warned not to read too much into company wide information and assume it relates specifically to Pilots. Further redundancies was mentioned in a previous Live-stream with Foran a week or 2 ago, and when the Pilot group followed up with the GM Pilots, she said it was a generic statement and there were no current plans for further Pilot redundancies.

Iíd say Air NZ would be treading on legal eggshells if they announced further Pilot redundancies mere weeks after signing a 9 month agreement with us on pay concessions which was supposed to (and did) save 74 jobs. There are, I believe, certain employment laws around bargaining in good faith.

Right now, the notional list for down training and directions is being worked on. I admit, itís delay has caused me some pause for concern, but itís no easy task as I expect theyíre exploring options to minimise seat changes. Once itís released however, and the down training begins, any further redundancies would largely effect the Airbus FO ranks and require the notional process to start over again.

The company have told us multiple times they plan to be 70% size post COVID. This has been pushed out another year to April 2022 so I have no doubt they request an extension to the AFFA beyond 9 rosters, but I canít see more Pilot redundancies on the horizon unless they revise post Covid size to be 60% (for example). Other departments however, who are cheap to lay off and re-hire/train will unfortunately see more cuts.
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Old 10th May 2020, 10:28
  #314 (permalink)  
 
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The 70% pre Covid projection was over 2 months ago, things have seriously gone down hill since then. Round 2 is unfortunately inevitable.
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Old 10th May 2020, 11:25
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Originally Posted by myturn View Post
The 70% pre Covid projection was over 2 months ago, things have seriously gone down hill since then. Round 2 is unfortunately inevitable.
And yet for those 2 months, the company did not revise their Pilot Redundancy numbers, and agreed to the AFFA as a means to reduce Redundancies as little as 2 weeks ago.
Greg Foran's latests communication changed the timeframe, but not the 70%. That is what they're sticking with and that is what Pilot Redundancies were based off. If Redundancies were based on the current flying schedule, 700+ would of gotten letters last week.

To approach this with a bit more common sense. In 3 months time (redundancy notice Period) the Airbus fleet will lose over half it's First Officers right as Domestic (and potentially Trans-Tasman) begin to pick back up. Under normal circumstances it takes approximately 3 months (Sim + Line training) to facilitate a fleet change. Obviously they can't have 100 Pilots training simultaneously. If they decide to take another swipe off the bottom, say 200 for example, that would be all the Airbus FO's gone, and probably a few Captains. The only fleet with much work on would be grounded.

I've said it countless times, and until proven wrong, I'll keep saying it. COVID-19 is a disaster, but it wont be solved with more redundancies. Pre-Covid, Jet Pilot wages made up approximately 17% of the Total Wage bill and ~4-5% of the total annual expenses. Redundancies have shaved off about $20M, while the AFFA will be closer to $30M (annualized). The AFFA savings are immediate while the Redundancies have yet to come into effect.
If Air NZ are serious about being 70% size (which Foran confirmed a few days ago, merely pushing it out to 2022), any Pilot Redundancies beyond those numbers will result in even more strain on the training department as Pilots get recalled and down-trained Pilots get another direction back up the list.

Those most Junior Pilots, post redundancy, are about 4 years in, so their redundancies wont be as cheap (unless of course they take Furlough). On average, I'd say another 200 Pilot redundancies would cost 6-7 months Pay (notice period + redundancy). The Company then run the risk of the remaining Pilots not agreeing to extend the AFFA, which is worth more in cost savings than Redundancies.

Don't get me wrong, COVID isn't over by a long shot, but the next battle wont be the Axe chopping another 200 off the bottom. It'll be the Company requesting an extension to the AFFA and/or more concessions the the CEA.
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Old 10th May 2020, 18:34
  #316 (permalink)  
 
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All sounds quite logical. I hope you're right.
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Old 11th May 2020, 00:53
  #317 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ElZilcho View Post
And yet for those 2 months, the company did not revise their Pilot Redundancy numbers, and agreed to the AFFA as a means to reduce Redundancies as little as 2 weeks ago.
Greg Foran's latests communication changed the timeframe, but not the 70%. That is what they're sticking with and that is what Pilot Redundancies were based off. If Redundancies were based on the current flying schedule, 700+ would of gotten letters last week.

To approach this with a bit more common sense. In 3 months time (redundancy notice Period) the Airbus fleet will lose over half it's First Officers right as Domestic (and potentially Trans-Tasman) begin to pick back up. Under normal circumstances it takes approximately 3 months (Sim + Line training) to facilitate a fleet change. Obviously they can't have 100 Pilots training simultaneously. If they decide to take another swipe off the bottom, say 200 for example, that would be all the Airbus FO's gone, and probably a few Captains. The only fleet with much work on would be grounded.

I've said it countless times, and until proven wrong, I'll keep saying it. COVID-19 is a disaster, but it wont be solved with more redundancies. Pre-Covid, Jet Pilot wages made up approximately 17% of the Total Wage bill and ~4-5% of the total annual expenses. Redundancies have shaved off about $20M, while the AFFA will be closer to $30M (annualized). The AFFA savings are immediate while the Redundancies have yet to come into effect.

If Air NZ are serious about being 70% size (which Foran confirmed a few days ago, merely pushing it out to 2022), any Pilot Redundancies beyond those numbers will result in even more strain on the training department as Pilots get recalled and down-trained Pilots get another direction back up the list.

Those most Junior Pilots, post redundancy, are about 4 years in, so their redundancies wont be as cheap (unless of course they take Furlough). On average, I'd say another 200 Pilot redundancies would cost 6-7 months Pay (notice period + redundancy). The Company then run the risk of the remaining Pilots not agreeing to extend the AFFA, which is worth more in cost savings than Redundancies.

Don't get me wrong, COVID isn't over by a long shot, but the next battle wont be the Axe chopping another 200 off the bottom. It'll be the Company requesting an extension to the AFFA and/or more concessions the the CEA.


Credit where credit is due ElZilcho...

A coherent, sensible and well written few paragraphs of text there. (Highly unusual to see this on this forum these days)...
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Old 11th May 2020, 02:45
  #318 (permalink)  
 
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ElZilcho, you are quite possibly one of the most level headed posters on ANZ related issues. A bit of sanity in these times is greatly appreciated. Thank you sir!
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Old 21st May 2020, 04:07
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Heard the rumour today that they're about to move most 772s to Alice Springs for long term storage before winter and the associated moisture issues with storage.

Feel for the guys at the bottom of the new list, I can only imagine removing the 772 fleet will cut another 100 pilots off the bottom of the list.
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Old 21st May 2020, 04:14
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Originally Posted by InZed View Post
Heard the rumour today that they're about to move most 772s to Alice Springs for long term storage before winter and the associated moisture issues with storage.

Feel for the guys at the bottom of the new list, I can only imagine removing the 772 fleet will cut another 100 pilots off the bottom of the list.
I think you need to re-read your company and union emails. The 2021 numbers are all done on only having two 773s in service. The removal of the other 13 frames is already factored in (all 200s and balance of 300s).
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