Government Loan to Virgin Australia

[krismiler]

KordaMentha must be mad that they missed out on another mother load...

After seeing how long the Ansett collapse was strung out for, the board of Virgin probably didn't want the airline to be someone's cash cow. Now is obviously not the best time to be selling an airline so it will be interesting to see how long the period of administration goes on for. Once flying resumes with some sort of regularity, the company can operate if more money is coming in than going out and creditors may prefer this option as they have more chance of getting their money back compared to a fire sale, though obviously this can't go on indefinitely. Waiting a year or two and getting 30% back would be preferable to pushing for an immediate winding up and getting 15% back.

The administrators need more time and information to assess the post COVID - 19 aviation market. If a rapid improvement is likely then restructuring into a smaller going concern is likely to be the preferred option where as long term stagnation would mean winding up or taking the best offer they could get in the circumstances.

[Buster Hyman]

Originally Posted by normanton

Hard to believe what he says when they drop in the word "leaner".

Perhaps he was talking about free gym membership.

[Paragraph377]

Originally Posted by wondrousbitofrough

Paragraph377 what's your employment history? Ever employed by Virgin?

Work it out for yourself, English boy.

[SHVC]

Well PS and Co looked pretty happy with themself at that conference today. They’re either telling porkies that no will will be made redundant or they do have a legitimate buyer/s coming along. Either way I bet Allan Joyce and Co will be sleeping in the war rooms tonight planning their come back on how they can keep the new competitor at arms length.

One would think they will give the high end market away for now and tackle JetStar head on.

[coaldemon]

Well the debt will have to be dealt with prior to a new buyer being happy with it. Question is what do you sell and what can you hand out as haircuts to the Bond Holders and Lenders? Also I thought that they had stood down most of the workers so they aren't paying a lot of them so there is no need to make anyone redundant at this point. Whichever way the business will be slimmed down and lean is the approach so there will be less jobs there it seems. Sad to watch in the circumstances. Looks like they are not the only ones right now with Norwegian, South African and it looks like Atlantic all looking for saviors.

[PoppaJo]

Originally Posted by SHVC

Well PS and Co looked pretty happy with themself at that conference today. They’re either telling porkies that no will will be made redundant or they do have a legitimate buyer/s coming along. Either way I bet Allan Joyce and Co will be sleeping in the war rooms tonight planning their come back on how they can keep the new competitor at arms length.

One would think they will give the high end market away for now and tackle JetStar head on.

I found it quite disturbing actually, I actually felt quick sick watching that. Having dealt with these people in a previous life, the vultures are circling. The Administrations appear well and truly behind the desk going off that footage.

All the failed billionaires will be out and about right about now raising their profile and wasting time pushing their ego.

The serious contenders, if there is any, and it would be Virgin going to them and fighting for itself, will come to light near the end of the process. Which will be July or August.

Nathan Tinkler Airlines anyone? Yep. Out they come.

[ozbiggles]

I’m not sure why Virgin X would bother coming back as a LCC against Jetstar when if there is a buyer out there they are going to get an airline all set up for the normal yield at a fire sale price with cheaper leases. The only thing they might change is the seat pitch at the back of the plane.
it could go many ways but I reckon this is the worst outcome for Qantas.

[SHVC]

I’m not sure why they ensured no redundancy either but anything is possible, maybe a stand down for a few years and recalled as needed.

330 has been mentioned but what about the ATR also, such a small fleet at high operating cost.

[Vref+5]

Administrators must convene the first creditors meeting within 8 days of their appointment. Convening period goes for 20 days after that meeting, then the second creditors meeting must be held no later than 5 days after the end of that period. Then they get to make the decision - finish the admin, wind it up, or execute a deed of company arrangement, or something else. Creditors call. S436 through 439 of the Corporations Act refers. So more news in about 33 days.

[Ollie Onion]

So Virgin goes into administration and people are saying this is the best thing that could happen and Qantas must be scared?

[Half Baked]

Shovel...........well said!

Sorry to hear of your own circumstances.

Your health is your wealth!

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Originally Posted by Ollie Onion

So Virgin goes into administration and people are saying this is the best thing that could happen and Qantas must be scared?

Agreed. My prediction is that virgin come out of this with a 15-20% market share and are a permanent minority player, JetBlue style business. Leaning the business was PS’ plan anyway, voluntary administration will at least make that possible, if a buyer can be found.

Hopefully VA is an Ansett Mk II, but a bit bigger and successful of course!

Trying to take on QF was what got it into this mess in the first place.

[Alfie.floor]

Originally Posted by SHVC

I’m not sure why they ensured no redundancy either but anything is possible, maybe a stand down for a few years and recalled as needed.

330 has been mentioned but what about the ATR also, such a small fleet at high operating cost.

TT crew were also told that there would be no redundancies when they first announced cutbacks.

[myturn]

Can you be a failed Billionaire ??

[ANstar]

Originally Posted by Ollie Onion

So Virgin goes into administration and people are saying this is the best thing that could happen and Qantas must be scared?

I can see the theory. For years Virgin have been constrained with their debt etc and lack of profitability, meaning a weak competitor for QF. If VA go bust and a better managed airline comes into the market then QF may not be as strong. Better to compete against a weak competitor than a strong one I guess.

[Buster Hyman]

Ansett MKII was actually a decent business model, built around the A320's. It's a shame that two opportunists didn't really plan for it to succeed.

[Half Baked]

People on here seem to forget that borders are still closed except for essential travel.

Public confidence and demand will be weak if at all!

There's no switch to flick and "she'll be right mate".

The game and playing field has changed.

It's uncharered waters and nobody knows how this will play out!

The only certainty is uncertainty!

[KABOY]

Originally Posted by ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE

Agreed. My prediction is that virgin come out of this with a 15-20% market share and are a permanent minority player, JetBlue style business. Leaning the business was PS’ plan anyway, voluntary administration will at least make that possible, if a buyer can be found.

Hopefully VA is an Ansett Mk II, but a bit bigger and successful of course!

Trying to take on QF was what got it into this mess in the first place.

This is no longer about taking on competitors after a rebirth, this is about being a viable entity in a travel market that has all but evaporated.

You can lean this business to the bone, but until the market returns or somebody with BILLIONS to burn comes along, administration is the only harbour from creditors. When the rebound occurs, QF are not going to shudder. They already have 60% of the market, and that was always their line in the sand.

I suspect after this, the next line will be far lower and how many investors want to be marginalised in a market where the return on investment is so low...

[RampDog]

Originally Posted by Buster Hyman

Ansett MKII was actually a decent business model, built around the A320's. It's a shame that two opportunists didn't really plan for it to succeed.

Spot on Buster!

Most people in this game never made the connection but it was such a good business model that it reappeared in 2004 as Jetstar Domestic.

And it was no coincidence that there were a number of ex-Ansett execs involved in making it fly for Qantas (can you guess just one?)


Is there anyone out there who was involved who would care to describe how that plan arose and was sold within QF, it would be very interesting and timely

[Lookleft]

Ansett MKII was actually a decent business model, built around the A320's. It's a shame that two opportunists didn't really plan for it to succeed.

And this was after months of meetings and requirements that Vref+5 described. It is the emotional roller coaster from hell where you go from news item to news item and then even at the last minute it can all come to nothing. I understand the staff at Virgin hoping that it will all turn out for the best as a lot of them have been emotionally invested in the company in the same way Ansett staff were and QF staff still are. The unfortunate reality though is that even if it does survive, there will be a lot of people who will end up on the outside looking in at an aviation career.