Post Covid19 Aviation

[Progress Wanchai]

Originally Posted by PoppaJo

Bali will go nuts. Agree. My 18 Year old Son and his entire year level are on standby to head there right when the thing dies off. They were originally going in May, so got the travel credits and accommodation vouchers for future use.

There would have been tens of thousands possible more, bookings and plans canceled, refunded, or vouchers which people need to use.

Jetstar did not refund anyone also, so there are millions with travel credits and they have to use these within a tight timeframe.

Can’t fault 18 year olds for not understanding what’s happening. For them a recession is something that only happens in history books. In fact very few Australians under the age of 50 have seen a recession in their working lives. We’d arguably have been better off had Rudd let Australia correct its debt levels/asset prices in 2008. By deferring that boom/bust cycle we’ve simply set ourselves up for a bigger fall this time around by having world record levels of personal debt. Never mind, it was fun while it lasted.

My best guess is it’ll take 5 years to recover to 2019 levels of economic activity in a typical boom/bust credit cycle. That’s providing we’re now entering a standard recession and aren’t descending into a 1930’s depression. In that scenario then it would seem the government is determined to turn on the money printing machine and we enter the slow decline that Japan has been experiencing for 20 years rather than a short, sharp shock followed by a rebound.

[SOPS]

I’m sorry ..did I just read this right .. ‘Bali will go nuts?’. What dont people understand? This is not your common cold. This is not going away. This is like smallpox before a vaccination.

I
There wont be ‘Bali going nuts’ for years. ( unless you want to die). Things have changed big time. You won’t get travel insurance for Covid.My sister in law is a doctor .. and she says .. don’t except to travel overseas for the next 2 years..


we are in a whole new world

[Going Boeing]

The number of A380’s being permanently grounded around the world is steadily increasing, Lufthansa has announced that it is disposing of 6 (out of 14) A380’s. Other retirements being made by the airline include 7 A340-600’s, 3 A340-300’s, 5 B747-400’s & 10 A320’s, along with their entire German Wings subsidiary.

[dragon man]

Originally Posted by SOPS

I’m sorry ..did I just read this right .. ‘Bali will go nuts?’. What dont people understand? This is not your common cold. This is not going away. This is like smallpox before a vaccination.


There will be ‘Bali going nuts’ for years. ( unless you want to die). Things have changed big time. You won’t get travel insurance for Covid.My sister in law is a doctor .. and she says .. don’t except to travel overseas for the next 2 years..


we are in a whole new world

A voice of reason, anyone who travels overseas without travel insurance needs their head read, will you get travel insurance when the skies open up? Who knows but it will certainly exclude the virus and anything that can be attached to it like cancellations due to an outbreak somewhere.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by dragon man

A voice of reason, anyone who travels overseas without travel insurance needs their head read, will you get travel insurance when the skies open up? Who knows but it will certainly exclude the virus and anything that can be attached to it like cancellations due to an outbreak somewhere.

They already have for a few years, many travel insurances had a pandemic clause thanks to ebola, sars, swine and bird flu

[kingRB]

Originally Posted by Paragraph377

Yep. They’ve got to keep that Ponzi scheme going until the very last minute. Quantitative easing, zero to negative interest rates, whatever they can do to keep a dead system alive. The USA alone has a likely debt of $250 trillion. The collapse has started and a painful reset is inevitable. The Federal Reserve is a joke, it isn’t even a bank. It’s a private cabal. People don’t even realise that.

did you catch this little gem that just popped up last few days?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/yell...lowing-it.html

Now the Federal Reserve is petitioning Congress to be able to purchase public equities.

[Paragraph377]

Originally Posted by kingRB

did you catch this little gem that just popped up last few days?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/yell...lowing-it.html

Now the Federal Reserve is petitioning Congress to be able to purchase public equities.

Sure did kingRB. They are making things up as they are going along. They are desperate. The house of cards is collapsing and they know it. They will stop at nothing to keep the Ponzi alive. You can only kick the can further down the road for so long. The worlds financial day of reckoning has arrived. Some of us having been expecting and waiting for this to happen for some time. Not wanting this to happen, but knew it was coming. If ever there was a time to ‘end the Fed’ it is now. Quantitative easing, negative interest rates, seriously, what’s next????

[Islandlad]

Originally Posted by Paragraph377

Sure did kingRB. They are making things up as they are going along. They are desperate. The house of cards is collapsing and they know it. They will stop at nothing to keep the Ponzi alive. You can only kick the can further down the road for so long. The worlds financial day of reckoning has arrived. Some of us having been expecting and waiting for this to happen for some time. Not wanting this to happen, but knew it was coming. If ever there was a time to ‘end the Fed’ it is now. Quantitative easing, negative interest rates, seriously, what’s next????

If that is step 1 what next. Based on what you have said above you have a fully developed recovery plan?

[Paragraph377]

Originally Posted by Islandlad

If that is step 1 what next. Based on what you have said above you have a fully developed recovery plan?

Recovery plan? You mean contingency and preparation plan. Debt free and invested in hard metals and stones for the best part of 20 years.

[kingRB]

Originally Posted by Islandlad

If that is step 1 what next. Based on what you have said above you have a fully developed recovery plan?

There is no recovery plan in the US or the rest of the Western Governments, because virtually everyone is oblivious to how debt based currency really works. Those that do understand are going to do everything they have left in their power to retain control of that system until it collapses.

One thing is certain - the USD as a reserve currency is in its final death throes. What happens after that - and what replaces it is going to be historic. Like P337 says - there will not be any immediate or smooth transition, and we are likely in for some very dark times economically and socially.

[Islandlad]

Originally Posted by Paragraph377

Recovery plan? You mean contingency and preparation plan. Debt free and invested in hard metals and stones for the best part of 20 years.

That's a little on the micro scale for the country.

Good luck with it. Watch out for the guy with a bigger gun than you.

[Islandlad]

Originally Posted by kingRB

There is no recovery plan in the US or the rest of the Western Governments, because virtually everyone is oblivious to how debt based currency really works. Those that do understand are going to do everything they have left in their power to retain control of that system until it collapses.

One thing is certain - the USD as a reserve currency is in its final death throes. What happens after that - and what replaces it is going to be historic. Like P337 says - there will not be any immediate or smooth transition, and we are likely in for some very dark times economically and socially.

Over time this will be a bump in the road. Resources rich countries like the US always spring back.

[TACQANAVIAVEC]

Originally Posted by Islandlad

Over time this will be a bump in the road. Resources rich countries like the US always spring back.

Argentina is amongst the most resource rich nations in the world and was once amongst the richest ones as well yet it has been broke for close to 60 years.

History time and time again has shown that a nation or empire that repeatedly debases its currency eventually looses its power. The US has virtually been able to print
money at will only because the USD is the world reserve currency, once this isn't true then like the ROME, the Dutch, the Spanish, The Uk there will a power shift away from the US.

[Islandlad]

Originally Posted by TACQANAVIAVEC

Argentina is amongst the most resource rich nations in the world and was once amongst the richest ones as well yet it has been broke for close to 60 years.

Political instability and a run on the currency was the cause. Comparisons with the USA are not accurate.

[directimped]

Originally Posted by kingRB

There is no recovery plan in the US or the rest of the Western Governments, because virtually everyone is oblivious to how debt based currency really works. Those that do understand are going to do everything they have left in their power to retain control of that system until it collapses.

Something interesting I came across recently during a bit of light reading on history and economics; "our current period of economic growth (200 years) represents only 0.01% of human presence on this planet". Obviously it went into a lot more detail than that, however it makes a valid point. Our current lifestyle that we enjoy is merely a blip on the scale of human history. People feel safe and assume that nothing can or will ever change. I don't know what the reason for this belief is, but it is a false sense of security. None of us are prepared for anything abnormal that could occur. We can't assume that our current economic system will never collapse or suffer a severe shock. It has happened countless times before and it can easily happen again. In fact, one could argue it will definitely happen eventually, as it is more horrendously unstable than it has ever been before.

[Paragraph377]

Originally Posted by Islandlad

That's a little on the micro scale for the country.

Good luck with it. Watch out for the guy with a bigger gun than you.

Seriously, that’s all you can come back with? Most who have invested in precious metals etc don’t have them a) Locked in a bank vault where the bank can lock you out and keep your investment for themselves, and b) if they’ve been smart enough to buy the hard asset they don’t have it sitting in their house for some muppet to come in and steal. That said, ‘gold, guns and getaway plan’ are worthy of considering. Well, probably too late now, but worth considering. Anyway, each to their own. If you studied up on ‘great depressions’ you will see that it’s not about survival of the country or the masses, it IS about micro scale - saving your family and yourself. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

[Vindiesel]

Borders to stay closed, travellers urged to 'see Australia first' once curbs ease

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/f...10-p54iw4.html

Seems a best case outcome here for the end of 2020 is generally unrestricted travel domestically and between AUS and NZ.

[LeftBehind]

I doubt anyone knows (even the academics who specialise in public health) know how COVID-19 is going to play out. It sure makes it interesting betting the sheep station at the big table. Consider the following possibilities:

1. Until a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available (if it ever does) or herd immunity is reached, any international travel into AU will require a quarantine period (of some description) at journey’s end. Unless there is a pressing reason (business or personal), this will make international travel unattractive for most.
2. It is possible that the current AU public health directions will result in the COVID-19 being contained and supressed, without the development of any AU herd immunity. If one listens to the entire briefings of various Federal and State representatives, the words “six months” keeps being repeated. This indicates September 2020 at the earliest. It is possible that Governments will slowly remove domestic travel restrictions. Key word is “slowly”. Expect incremental step, watch what happens, then another incremental step. However, any flare up will trigger a new lock down.
3. Non-business travellers (including the bogans) will have taken a big hit to their free cash. Until the economy recovers, suppressed demand. Factor in higher tax take (which will dry up household free cash) for the next decade to pay off the COVID-19 government debt.
4. Business travel will be watched closely. Not for costs, but for possible cross contamination of the office. Expect travel approver to ask, “do you really need to travel to location X”. Sales droids, show ponies, and those who seek self-esteem by obtaining frequent flyer miles will always find a good excuse. All others will defer if possible. Until vaccine is available, expect suppressed business travel, even inside AU.
5. Keep in mind that containment and suppression strategies are applying selection pressure on COVID-19. Only the strong survive, and this seems to be applying to COVID-19 S type.
6. The current AU government is unpredictable and not running to type (mainly in a good way).

[layman]

LeftBehind

Good summary.

Another possibility is if there is success in the search for a full, or even partial, ‘treatment’. A long bow but may be a useful adjunct to a vaccine.

Your (6), I’d make one change - governments (plural). Ideology largely seems to be lockdown too.

I thought this was a good article on progress toward a COVID-19 vaccine:
https://theconversation.com/where-ar...navirus-134784

[kiwi grey]

For those running a "everything will be back to normal in a few months" line, maybe read: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-...o-517/12143322, headlined "WA ... COVID-19 restrictions to last at least six months"

That's internal 'border' checks until at least October, I can't see external borders in Australia or NZ being opened until there's a vaccine, or all passengers go into quarantine on arrival. That's international tourism and short-term business travel stone dead in this part of the world until (I guess) March or April 2021.