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Post Covid19 Aviation

Old 24th Mar 2020, 10:29
  #21 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Paragraph377 View Post
There will probably be 20 major airlines worldwide. Qantas will be one of them. None of them will be in good financial standing initially, but that will change as they rebuild. Smaller players, regionals airlines, charter and GA will be gone, all of it. Freight operators will slowly grow.

This event has and will change society collectively. Don’t be surprised if in a few months time the World emerges from this with almost all terrorism eliminated, church doors never to be allowed to open again and we have a cashless society now using a global digital currency. Realestate as you currently know it will crash back to earth and they will ban the private use of Gold as currency or trade. Governments will retain the special emergency powers they have implemented and we will be watched and monitored in everything we do. Governments will capitalise on this crisis to do things they have never done before and none of the plebs will fight it.
Well they are very happy thoughts! Would you mind expanding on why all churches will be closed forever, money will disappear and Real Estate will crash. ( i agree it does not look good for Real Estate.. but you seem to suggesting the end of days.)

Could you kindly inform the rest of us how and why all this will happen? Im
very interested.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 10:49
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The crappier the world gets, the more valuable land becomes. Whether it’s value is measured in dollars or potatoes doesn’t really matter. It provides security.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 10:55
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Very regular SLF and reader of PPRuNe, I registered just now to post this to tell you guys to keep your chins up. Your industry is not dead - just in hibernation. I can tell you that there are plenty of people lile me who are already waiting to get back in the air - for me I know my travel pattern will be double what it's been pre-covid. So it's not all doom and gloom! The industries suffering right now will be filled by those industries like mine that are not currently in decline.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 10:59
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People are forgetting that fuel is heading toward 5-10 cents a litre. That makes flying ludicrously efficient compared to most other forms of transport.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 11:01
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The reality is that people need money to travel, premium class more money so successful business people and retirees. Many businesses will go broke here very quickly, retirees have seen their super go backwards, 80,000 people lost their jobs yesterday alone, landlords will either get no rent or reduced rent for a long time. Realistically without a quick return to normality unemployment in Australia will probably reach 15%. The AUS$ has also lost a lot of value so IMO there will not be anywhere near the demand for international travel. The wheels of commerce have jammed up badly, this is very very serious. My estimation is that for the next 18 months Qantas will survive with 14 787s and some of their 330s.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 11:14
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Originally Posted by SOPS View Post
Well they are very happy thoughts! Would you mind expanding on why all churches will be closed forever, money will disappear and Real Estate will crash. ( i agree it does not look good for Real Estate.. but you seem to suggesting the end of days.)

Could you kindly inform the rest of us how and why all this will happen? Im
very interested.
Why not? Religion is filled with Pedo’s, are exempt from paying tax, cost the Commonwealth hundreds of millions in inquiries and they are worth billions of dollars, possibly more. Doors were shut yesterday so why not take advantage of that and leave them shut for good and take all of their money to prop up the rest of society. Got nothing to do with end of days mate. More like commonsense.







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Old 24th Mar 2020, 11:38
  #27 (permalink)  

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Sweet! I was waiting for the first Nostradamus thread! So, who are we backing as the Third Anti-Christ???
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 11:41
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Originally Posted by f1yhigh View Post
I am a realist, as I'm sure many of you are. What can we expect when all this is over? Some have reason to believe there will be no more flying for the VA A330s, QF 747s/A380s and some are even speculating that Project Sunrise will be expedited and could be flying as early as late next year.
Qantas A380 OQI arrived in Dresden today, next inline, for the advancing fleet refurb, ferried direct from Sydney. So, the A380 is not left for dead yet, even by those planning Sunrise. For the A380, the Sydney-Darwin-London demoed over the next few days, could come back much earlier then the rest of the world, preceded by the B787 out of Perth, IF we can make the islands of Australia and UK virus free, and lock down the borders. Yes, an optimistic IF. All bets are off, until the virus is contained.

Last edited by Heavy Metal; 24th Mar 2020 at 12:06.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 12:13
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Really disappointed in the way our PM, Premiers, health ministers, doctors, the whole western world have approached this whole thing. Not one of them have said,
do not be scared of this virus what you should be scared of is your own immune system? In the past month not one mention of your own immune system.
The human body was designed with a self defence mechanism. So use it. Boost it. Food is your medicine, not the corner drug store. We all know
that any drug you take lowers your gut flora hence lowers your immune system. If your going to eat junk food, smoke, don't get enough sleep, no proper nutrition
no exercise then the coronavirus can't wait to incubate inside you. However if you do the reverse your immune system will be bullet proof. So the pollies advise
you to stay indoors get depressed, no sunlit Vit D vital for fighting infections, look at screens all day which all lower your immune system. So in one paragraph
I've mentioned immune system 5 times. I believe that's 5 nil to me health minster. I preach what I say I'm in my late 50s and never bought a drug in 20 years, only
supplements, and the last time I caught the flu was in my 20s. Don't forget to drink your 8 glasses of water too. Now if everybody did this
the virus would die in it's own tracks within weeks. Hence no one would of lost their jobs. No economy melt down.



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Old 24th Mar 2020, 12:24
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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The reality is that people need money to travel, premium class more money so successful business people and retirees. Many businesses will go broke here very quickly, retirees have seen their super go backwards, 80,000 people lost their jobs yesterday alone, landlords will either get no rent or reduced rent for a long time. Realistically without a quick return to normality unemployment in Australia will probably reach 15%. The AUS$ has also lost a lot of value so IMO there will not be anywhere near the demand for international travel. The wheels of commerce have jammed up badly, this is very very serious. My estimation is that for the next 18 months Qantas will survive with 14 787s and some of their 330s.
But the cost of traveling will decrease exponentially. At the current fuel prices it will cost around $4 in fuel per pax to do something like a SYD-MEL or BNE (That's around a 700km of travel). The Fees and Taxes will start looking absolutely outrageous at those sort of fuel prices.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 12:31
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Originally Posted by Turnleft080 View Post
Really disappointed in the way our PM, Premiers, health ministers, doctors, the whole western world have approached this whole thing. Not one of them have said,
do not be scared of this virus what you should be scared of is your own immune system? In the past month not one mention of your own immune system.
The human body was designed with a self defence mechanism. So use it. Boost it. Food is your medicine, not the corner drug store. We all know
that any drug you take lowers your gut flora hence lowers your immune system. If your going to eat junk food, smoke, don't get enough sleep, no proper nutrition
no exercise then the coronavirus can't wait to incubate inside you. However if you do the reverse your immune system will be bullet proof. So the pollies advise
you to stay indoors get depressed, no sunlit Vit D vital for fighting infections, look at screens all day which all lower your immune system. So in one paragraph
I've mentioned immune system 5 times. I believe that's 5 nil to me health minster. I preach what I say I'm in my late 50s and never bought a drug in 20 years, only
supplements, and the last time I caught the flu was in my 20s. Don't forget to drink your 8 glasses of water too. Now if everybody did this
the virus would die in it's own tracks within weeks. Hence no one would of lost their jobs. No economy melt down.
You sound almost as bullet proof as the school kids are - when did they give up smoking, bad food and screens?

Much of Italy and Europe in general eat very well.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 13:02
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Bend alot OK put it this way, when you walk down the street or do the gardening you are exposed to thousands of germs. Your immune system fights them
off. The more you boost your immune system the less sick you get. The Italians they may eat well which is good, so why are they dying. What other things
will destroy your immune system. It comes down to other things relying on drug stores, no exercise, and yes smoking. When I was in Europe last smoking was
out of control. That's another 3 to me heath minister.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 13:26
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Turnleft080 View Post
Bend alot OK put it this way, when you walk down the street or do the gardening you are exposed to thousands of germs. Your immune system fights them
off. The more you boost your immune system the less sick you get. The Italians they may eat well which is good, so why are they dying. What other things
will destroy your immune system. It comes down to other things relying on drug stores, no exercise, and yes smoking. When I was in Europe last smoking was
out of control. That's another 3 to me heath minister.
You missed it - kids that only eat nuggets and chips, wrapped in cotton wool since birth and spend all day on screens are not getting sick (in any numbers so we are told).

They do the complete opposite to you, yet no recorded case even in Australia.

At over 50 you are at risk and a good diet will not help if you have underlying health issues, they can not be known to you now.

All people in Australia have a higher chance of dying from this virus in 2020 than an aircraft crash & I think we only have 7 to date from the virus, with possibly around 20 in aviation.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 14:00
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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The outcome would differ greatly the sooner a cure or effective treatment is identified and put into practice.

(I don't have a lot of faith in our medical systems and scientists so I am not particularly optimistic on that happening sooner rather than later).
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 15:53
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It's now a big problem and we need to be careful and avoid every kind of crowd.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 16:59
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The big question is of course, how long this goes on for. A vaccine available in mass quantities tomorrow would end the immediate crisis and we could concentrate on the economy, a second wave of a more severe virus strain with a higher mortality rate would plunge us into a depression that would still affect our grandchildren.

Generally people will downgrade a step or two, first class to business, business to economy, full service to low cost. Long haul holiday destination to regional, regional to domestic. The problem experienced in the UK after the financial crisis was that people's spending levels didn't instantly rebound once things improved. Money saving habits were ingrained and once it was realised that supermarket own brands did the same job as premium ones, you didn't actually need to upgrade your cell phone every year and a take away with supermarket wine was as nice as a meal in a poncy restaurant, at 1/4 of the price, it was hard to justify going back to the old ways. This was especially applicable if you were caught with your pants down financially having little in the bank and heavy monthly commitments.

After this pandemic and worldwide depression I predict a much smaller airline industry to emerge, similar to before deregulation. Airlines without a very healthy balance sheet before this started, or government backing will go under. What’s left will be nationalised or subject to heavy controls regarding routes, timetables and fares.

For most A380s it’s almost certainly long term storage for a couple of years and only back on a few limited routes where the numbers add up, if and when it does return. A small number of airlines might have the critical mass in terms of viable routes to operate them on. The B777-300 becomes the new A380

Probably the final nail for the B737 MAX as well. Why waste billions in patching up a fundamentally flawed design for which future demand has evaporated ? There may have been a case for a solution when the order book was in the thousands, but not any more. The current number of narrow bodies already flying will be able to cope with the reduced demand and the lower oil price will extend the life of the older less efficient versions. Far fewer reasons to spend on a new airframe when there isn't that much difference in the operating cost vs a 10 year old model.

The US government will likely take over Boeing due to its importance to the economy and as a defence supplier. The downturn could be used to develop an all new replacement aircraft.

I believe that the future is now all twins, with A320/B737s being used to the limits of their range and B777-200/B787s taking over from there. These types are already in existence in significant numbers and economical to operate, even though fuel price won’t be much of an issue for a while. High density seating in the narrow bodies with 10 and 9 across in the Boeings, possibly a couple of rows of business class will be the new norm. The A350 may be a better aircraft than the B787 but it won't be able to compete with second hand B777/B787s being sold at fire sale prices by bankrupt or downsizing airlines. The newer and larger Airbus variants such as the A321NEO could replace widebodies on many routes which would be unable to sustain a 300 seat aircraft.

Suites and lie flat seats won’t be filling up anytime soon. A holiday is likely to be an annual trip to a short/mid range destination on a low cost airline, rather than long haul on a premium carrier. Domestic tourism replaces international holidays for many people. Bali and Fiji become exotic destinations rather than run of the mill for Australian travellers.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 17:36
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bulletproof

Originally Posted by Bend alot View Post
You sound almost as bullet proof as the school kids are - when did they give up smoking, bad food and screens?

Much of Italy and Europe in general eat very well.
Europeans tend to eat well but they smoke and drink. As far as kids go I have raised a number of them. Made them eat healthy but lot's of their friends survive on junk food and do not exercise. The general population is also addicted to pharmaceuticals which is a tragedy. People have gotten lazier and stupider. Oh well. Why are the numbers so high in Italy? Do some real looking at how they are collecting and presenting the numbers in Italy and you should be able to figure it out. This entire panic is nothing but a big cloud of bulls..t. But, yes, we needed a good flush. Something had to happen and here it is.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 23:01
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Are you sure you are not a direct descendent from Nostradamus?
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 23:39
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I’m so glad I have got the truth from PPRuNe, not the illuminati shills...
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 23:41
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“Can you name three of these "draconian new laws" passed in Australia?”

Not sure about oz but here in the US, the DOJ is requesting the right for “indefinite detention without trial” under the cover of caronavirus.

I agree with the OP, cunning governments never waste an opportunity to obtain more power.

The Patriot Act was introduced shortly following Sep11 and most members later admitted they did not read the proposal.

The results are playing out now with arguments raging about data collection and spying.
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