Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Worldwide > Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
Reload this Page >

VA pilots worried about employment 2021

Wikiposts
Search
Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

VA pilots worried about employment 2021

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 16th Mar 2020, 05:42
  #401 (permalink)  

Evertonian
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: #3117# Ppruner of the Year Nominee 2005
Posts: 12,475
Received 100 Likes on 57 Posts
Originally Posted by Chris2303
The same party - different people.
Do you think they're more compassionate than the Howard Govt?
Buster Hyman is offline  
Old 16th Mar 2020, 05:44
  #402 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Asia
Posts: 1,030
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
There isn’t a major drop of in traffic on Dom yet. Still fairly busy.

Lets not not get too carried away spreading VA fear. Your making it sound like flights are bare empty around the traps.

Next couple of days still pretty busy.
wheels_down is offline  
Old 16th Mar 2020, 07:29
  #403 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: SYD
Posts: 54
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I wouldn't call it VA fear but have a look at the VAH half year report from last month and tell me why you shouldn't be concerned.

- Cash and cash equivalents dropped from $1.7b to $1.1b in 6 months to 31 December. What level do you reckon cash is at now? Maybe $1b at best? Maybe $900m?
- VAH operating expenditure is about on par with operating revenue for the 6 months to 31 December - both at around $3.1b for the period.(source: page 7 of half year report).
- If you assume a 30% reduction in revenue to about $2.1b for the next 6 months, which is by no means out of the questions with these travel restrictions, corporate travel bans and a reduction in discretionary leisure travel, then VAH essentially runs out of cash in 5-6 months.

Not saying I'm definitely right, but this doesn't seem far fetched in my opinion.
Vindiesel is offline  
Old 16th Mar 2020, 08:15
  #404 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: BRISBANE
Posts: 33
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
it’s like sharks to blood, how about you all settle the f$&ck down, every industry is in the same boat not just the self centred ‘what about me’ airline industry. Airlines come and go, invoking panic is how this sh$t and every other world disaster is fueled.
arena1 is offline  
Old 16th Mar 2020, 08:30
  #405 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Asia
Posts: 1,030
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Vindiesel
I wouldn't call it VA fear but have a look at the VAH half year report from last month and tell me why you shouldn't be concerned.

- Cash and cash equivalents dropped from $1.7b to $1.1b in 6 months to 31 December. What level do you reckon cash is at now? Maybe $1b at best? Maybe $900m?
- VAH operating expenditure is about on par with operating revenue for the 6 months to 31 December - both at around $3.1b for the period.(source: page 7 of half year report).
- If you assume a 30% reduction in revenue to about $2.1b for the next 6 months, which is by no means out of the questions with these travel restrictions, corporate travel bans and a reduction in discretionary leisure travel, then VAH essentially runs out of cash in 5-6 months.

Not saying I'm definitely right, but this doesn't seem far fetched in my opinion.
The 500m drop of the balance sheet was paying off a bond. They were very upfront to the market about that for the last year. The next bond is still 1.5 years off. That can either be refinanced, or, with the Boeing order extremely likely to be pushed back, capex freed.

So they have a billion bucks to play with for the foreseeable future. They are not going to blow a billion in the next half!

Just be mindful there is quite a bit of redundancy and transformation expenses in the last half. Also new contracts with airports and fuel suppliers.

They have already stated a 75m impact for the second half. I think that number could be doubled as a minimum. I think a conservative figure for H2 would be -250m considering we are nearly in the last quarter.

They will also gain a 70-100m Velocity Earnings for this half, and 100m in Employee Costs and Contracts gain from July.

Advice from modelling shows mid to late September rebound.
wheels_down is offline  
Old 16th Mar 2020, 09:28
  #406 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: no fixed address
Posts: 181
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
If it’s ok with you wheels down, I’ll quote you in a few months, with the benefit of hindsight of course. I do hope you’re right by the way.
VH-ABC is offline  
Old 16th Mar 2020, 12:12
  #407 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Qatar
Posts: 55
Likes: 0
Received 8 Likes on 1 Post
Advice from modelling shows mid to late September rebound
And just who gave that advice - and I don't care which company they came from???? - Who can seriously predict what will happen with this scenario of COVID-19.

And you would be dreaming if you think that Qantas and Jetstar are not having discussions about stand downs in the near future. Virgin and Tiger are in the same boat with the big difference being the capacity to trade in such a depressed market..

Very uncertain times.....

Last edited by Denied Justice; 16th Mar 2020 at 12:12. Reason: text
Denied Justice is offline  
Old 16th Mar 2020, 12:26
  #408 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Doomagee
Age: 11
Posts: 721
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
This is making the GFC look like a fun day out.
Berealgetreal is offline  
Old 16th Mar 2020, 22:18
  #409 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Sydney
Posts: 467
Likes: 0
Received 7 Likes on 4 Posts
Originally Posted by Denied Justice
And just who gave that advice - and I don't care which company they came from???? - Who can seriously predict what will happen with this scenario of COVID-19.

And you would be dreaming if you think that Qantas and Jetstar are not having discussions about stand downs in the near future. Virgin and Tiger are in the same boat with the big difference being the capacity to trade in such a depressed market..

Very uncertain times.....
have a look at the Qantas grounding A380 thread. Qantas just announcing 80% reduction.

Virgin expected to announce today as well.

and when they close schools, shops etc and then lock people in.. basically a complete grounding.

and this will be for at least several months, probably 6.

This will be the picture worldwide for the airline industry.

.
Foxxster is offline  
Old 17th Mar 2020, 00:39
  #410 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: International
Age: 76
Posts: 1,394
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
VAHHA have dropped a further 26.69% today to $35.00. If you think VA will prosper between now and 26/11/24 buy VAHHA at $35. You may receive 24% per annum plus receive $100 on 26/11/24. Personally; I think they may drop off the radar unless Richard Branson pumps some of his fortune into VAH. He is cashed up after the sale of Virgin America.


.

Last edited by B772; 17th Mar 2020 at 01:18.
B772 is offline  
Old 17th Mar 2020, 01:26
  #411 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 340
Received 53 Likes on 26 Posts
Originally Posted by Foxxster
have a look at the Qantas grounding A380 thread. Qantas just announcing 80% reduction.

Virgin expected to announce today as well.

and when they close schools, shops etc and then lock people in.. basically a complete grounding.

and this will be for at least several months, probably 6.

This will be the picture worldwide for the airline industry.

.
On what possible basis do you claim this will be for six months??? If, at the maximum, the isolation period were 30 days instead of 14, that means the virus will have run it's course if the borders are closed and there will be no new cases if it's run it's course, will there???
6 months!!! You're exaggerating beyond all reasonable possibilities. Besides, in 2 months they will be pretty close to a vaccine, as great strides have been made already, talk about over-the-top.
AerialPerspective is offline  
Old 17th Mar 2020, 02:03
  #412 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 342
Received 19 Likes on 12 Posts
AP is on another planet..
TimmyTee is offline  
Old 17th Mar 2020, 02:10
  #413 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: The World
Posts: 2,287
Received 351 Likes on 191 Posts
Originally Posted by AerialPerspective
6 months!!! You're exaggerating beyond all reasonable possibilities. Besides, in 2 months they will be pretty close to a vaccine, as great strides have been made already, talk about over-the-top.
The vaccine has to be subjected to human trials to make sure it works and it is safe. And then it has to be manufactured. And then the public has to be vaccinated en masse for the entire world. That will not happen in 2 months, and I doubt it will happen by the end of the year.

The 6 months is concurrent with the end of our traditional flu season which is what health planners are using as their baseline.
dr dre is offline  
Old 17th Mar 2020, 02:19
  #414 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: U.S.A
Age: 56
Posts: 496
Received 3 Likes on 2 Posts
Not sure what is being advised down under but here in the US the CDC advise a vaccine will be 8-12 months away and deployable in 12-18 months.

This is not going away soon.

The impact to the airline industry will be huge.

Get the resumes ready? No point. Better off learning how to grow vegetables.
oicur12.again is offline  
Old 17th Mar 2020, 03:02
  #415 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: New Zealand
Age: 71
Posts: 1,475
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
S&P Virgin Australia downgrade

S&P have downgraded Virgin's credit rating from a B to B-. S&P Global Ratings agency expects the downturn in international travel as a result of Covid-19 will "likely spread more deeply into Australia's domestic market", Virgin's predominate market. S&P says Virgin's efforts to reduce capacity, exit loss-making routes and accelerate cost reduction initiatives are unlikely to fully cover the cost of lower travel demand.

Virgin's large cash reserves and investments, worth about $900m, will provide a temporary buffer to the crisis, but S&P acknowledges the company's future stability may rely on it cutting more costs if this crisis continues beyond the next few months. The company's operating environment may be deteriorating at a faster pace than Virgin Australia can implement initiatives to protect cash generation and balance sheet health, S&P said of Virgin.

S&P said it was less likely Virgin would receive extraordinary support from its shareholder airlines, Etihad Airways. Singapore Airlines, Nanshan Group, HNA Group and Virgin Group if it experienced financial stress, with each shareholder experiencing its own challenging conditions.
Paragraph377 is offline  
Old 17th Mar 2020, 03:50
  #416 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: no fixed address
Posts: 181
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Like a dog with a bone...
VH-ABC is offline  
Old 17th Mar 2020, 07:25
  #417 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 359
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Yep.Someone loves the sound of his own keyboard strokes!
One thing for sure I am pretty sure the 'Grandson' is ten times more sick of listening to the sage advice from the "ex DC10/B747 Captain" than we are!
ad-astra is offline  
Old 17th Mar 2020, 09:45
  #418 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Australia
Age: 53
Posts: 127
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Yeah very big “ IF “ Think ANZ retired the DC-10 in around 1982 so must have been a very young DC-10 Captain or ................
bangbounceboeing is offline  
Old 17th Mar 2020, 11:06
  #419 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Gate_15L
Age: 50
Posts: 1
Likes: 0
Received 2 Likes on 1 Post
Originally Posted by ad-astra
Yep.Someone loves the sound of his own keyboard strokes!
One thing for sure I am pretty sure the 'Grandson' is ten times more sick of listening to the sage advice from the "ex DC10/B747 Captain" than we are!
I don't think it's the keyboard he's stroking....
Gate_15L is offline  
Old 17th Mar 2020, 11:45
  #420 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Aust
Posts: 201
Received 18 Likes on 9 Posts
Originally Posted by oicur12.again
Not sure what is being advised down under but here in the US the CDC advise a vaccine will be 8-12 months away and deployable in 12-18 months.

This is not going away soon.

The impact to the airline industry will be huge.

Get the resumes ready? No point. Better off learning how to grow vegetables.
Other already existing drugs are currently being tested for possible value in treating this virus.

If one (or more) of them proves to be effective that will shorten the time-frame significantly as they are already known to be safe.
rcoight is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.