Flights from China
You are looking at data that is being driven by an exponential function. Flick the y-axis scale over to logarithmic if you want to see whether you're seeing accelerating, constant or decelerating growth. SPOILER ALERT: Based on the data, it's decelerating.
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Saw on the news that India already has 5,000 + diagnosed. That sounds like a bad omen as I imagine their health system in large parts of the country would not be first world.
that’s from the Indian Economic Times. Admittedly a source I’m not that familiar with but I wouldn’t jump at the idea of 5000 infected there yet. That said, it’s because of countries like India that the WHO declared it of concern.
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Has anyone here managed to do any flights in and out of China over the past few weeks, since the outbreak began?
We're due to have a webinar with my group here at 21z this Thursday evening, and I'd really like to get someone in the discussion who can help us on this particular topic - just an overview of what some of the main challenges are with ops to China and Hong Kong at the moment.
We're due to have a webinar with my group here at 21z this Thursday evening, and I'd really like to get someone in the discussion who can help us on this particular topic - just an overview of what some of the main challenges are with ops to China and Hong Kong at the moment.
Based on my experience of Indians, I wouldn’t give any credence whatsoever to their official figures.
As for China, twitter videos shows them welding doors shut to maintain quarantine.
You do not want this virus in Australia, period.
As for China, twitter videos shows them welding doors shut to maintain quarantine.
You do not want this virus in Australia, period.
Has anyone here managed to do any flights in and out of China over the past few weeks, since the outbreak began?
We're due to have a webinar with my group here at 21z this Thursday evening, and I'd really like to get someone in the discussion who can help us on this particular topic - just an overview of what some of the main challenges are with ops to China and Hong Kong at the moment.
We're due to have a webinar with my group here at 21z this Thursday evening, and I'd really like to get someone in the discussion who can help us on this particular topic - just an overview of what some of the main challenges are with ops to China and Hong Kong at the moment.
Wanted to fly into China however at the start of the week it was no. Planned to drop pax in Macau and a China reg aircraft and crew could do the Macau - China leg.
Now however China reg aircraft and crew can do a turnaround in Singapore pick pax up and back to China.
Most airlines not operating into China.
Interesting times, busy places are now quiet as a mouse in the house.
Early days. I hope that China’s quarantine efforts (and ours) are successful until a vaccine can be produced in quantity.
The “canary in the coal mine” for me was hospital staff getting infected and the deaths (now 2) of young medical specialists who would have by definition the best possible care.
The Americans now reckon Rho is between 4 and 6 - which is bad. The case fatality rate isn’t going to stay at 2% either if medical facilities are overwhelmed.
I will be pleasantly surprised if :
(a) I get to go on my European trip in July, and
(b) I still have some superannuation left, and
(c) I’m alive.
The “canary in the coal mine” for me was hospital staff getting infected and the deaths (now 2) of young medical specialists who would have by definition the best possible care.
The Americans now reckon Rho is between 4 and 6 - which is bad. The case fatality rate isn’t going to stay at 2% either if medical facilities are overwhelmed.
I will be pleasantly surprised if :
(a) I get to go on my European trip in July, and
(b) I still have some superannuation left, and
(c) I’m alive.
Sh&t, thats a bit dramatic. The fact of the matter is that the majority of people who contract this only display low to mild symptoms, 30% of those that die are 60+, 30% are 70+ and 20% are 80+, the majority of those have underlying health issues. The death rate outside of Wuhan is much lower than the 2.5% inside China with many scientists saying that the fact that Wuhan has one of the highest rates of respiratory disease due to pollution as a possible contributing factor to a much higher mortality rate inside of China. Most Western countries have more than enough hospital care available to handle an outbreak, it will be a massive issue if it is not contained in countries around the pacific or within Africa. Yes you may miss your European vacation, although that will be your choice as it is unlikely travel restrictions will prevent travel to Europe, yes your super will take a hit but that will recover when this outbreak is over. It is highly unlikely that this virus will kill you unless you have some major underlying issues and you happen to get infected somewhere that doesn't have good hospital care.
In its current iteration the virus does kill more old people. 3.5% mortality for people 60-69, higher of course for the older brackets.
I am not sure about the ability of good care to save the dire cases-so far that does not seem apparent.
I am not sure about the ability of good care to save the dire cases-so far that does not seem apparent.
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Hope that helps you.
Yes - number of new cases outside China is now higher than inside according to the BBC - goodluck
Close the airports, period. We need fortress Australia until we see which way this is heading. I don’t believe CFR figures - they may be much worse if or when our hospital systems are overwhelmed. I’m going to a briefing next week so may be more optimistic after that.
Indeed but I’d say the government will buckle eventually. The only thing that has helped is the situation in Italy. It’s a clear message to the world from a western country just how bad things can get.
I gave up on this thread a while back when people were teaching high school math whether exponential or not.
At present best evidence is doubling every 7 days (i.e. increasing by 10% every 24 hours).
This afternoon Australia all but called it a pandemic.
A couple of resources I suggest you all read - far better than anything you will find in mainstream media
This guy is one of Australia's most respected virologists, so you should seriously listen to what he is saying
https://virologydownunder.com/past-t...l-prepare-now/
https://virologydownunder.com/so-you...in-a-pandemic/
At present best evidence is doubling every 7 days (i.e. increasing by 10% every 24 hours).
This afternoon Australia all but called it a pandemic.
A couple of resources I suggest you all read - far better than anything you will find in mainstream media
This guy is one of Australia's most respected virologists, so you should seriously listen to what he is saying
https://virologydownunder.com/past-t...l-prepare-now/
https://virologydownunder.com/so-you...in-a-pandemic/
Thread Starter
It’s bad? Correct?
