Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Flights from China

Old 1st Feb 2020, 13:43
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When something doesn't add up, its usually because you don't have all the facts

An account of life in Wuhan

This is why China locked down cities
This is why China have deployed 10,000 extra doctors to Wuhan city
This is why people in Huanggang are confined to their houses
This is why Apple and Starbucks have closed their stores in China
This is why China have severely curtailed CNY celebrations
This is why China have delayed the start of the school / university year
This is why China is closed for business
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...osed-next-week

Now, does Australia have that stipulated 90-day minimum of fuel imports? No, no actually we have 18 days petrol, 22 days diesel, and 23 days Jet.
Well then, does Australia still have a domestic oil refining capability? Ooops.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 15:57
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Private Jets

Originally Posted by dragon man
Are we out of step here? Shouldn’t all flights to and from China be stopped? Interested in all thoughts, not a Qantas bashing thread.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...s-border-china

Currently no restrictions for Private Jets. Who is tracking those that come into the UK?
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 19:14
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Originally Posted by Chris2303
It was mentioned in NZ that the RNZAF should be doing the job but the reply was that approvals for military airplanes took a looong time compared to approvals for a civilian airplane
Also, the only vaguely suitable airframe is the RNZAF B757.
  • These are not fitted with winglets and are relatively short-legged. At least one refuelling stop would be required between Wuhan and NZ: arranging this would be problematic, I think
  • Maximum seating is about 200, so if you're going to put some medics on board to provide in-flight assistance, you're not going to extract many 'Corona Virus Refugees'
The Air NZ B777-300ER is an altogether better choice
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 21:01
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Originally Posted by dragon man
Because there are more than 30,000 Chinese students due to arrive soon at the University of Sydney and University of NSW. They want to get them here before the borders close in time for the start of semester. Full fee paying international $tudent$ are highly lucrative.

Source: Daily Telegraph, 01 Feb 20, pg 3
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 21:12
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Originally Posted by Martin_Baker
Because there are more than 30,000 Chinese students due to arrive soon at the University of Sydney and University of NSW. They want to get them here before the borders close in time for the start of semester. Full fee paying international $tudent$ are highly lucrative.

Source: Daily Telegraph, 01 Feb 20, pg 3
Oh yes, that makes sense. Make some short term $$ gains, long term is somebody else’s problem. Didn’t know they made beds big enough to fit the government and all their buddies in
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 21:19
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Originally Posted by Green.Dot
Oh yes, that makes sense. Make some short term $$ gains, long term is somebody else’s problem. Didn’t know they made beds big enough to fit the government and all their buddies in
Further in that article:
Students from China make up almost a third of the 730,000 foreigners studying in Australia, and are therefore responsible for a large chunk of the $30 billion the tertiary education sector earns from international students.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 23:29
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Continued exponential growth

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro

14,550 confirmed cases
19,554 suspected (they have a shortage of test kits)
304 dead
2,112 serious infections

Despite Australian being a relatively small country, we are the highest number of cases outside China for a country that is some distance from China. We have the same number of cases as USA & Canada combined.

The only countries higher than Australia are countries that are very close to or border China

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...navirus-cases/

Last edited by slats11; 2nd Feb 2020 at 00:11.
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 00:38
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Originally Posted by Martin_Baker
Further in that article:
Students from China make up almost a third of the 730,000 foreigners studying in Australia, and are therefore responsible for a large chunk of the $30 billion the tertiary education sector earns from international students.
if they aren’t permanent residents they won’t be let in right?
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 00:40
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I wonder what the 'arrangements' are for the necessary Flight / Cabin Crews of the aircraft, both 'civilian' and RAAF (?) who are slotted to transport those who elect to come back, Darwin to Christmas Is.?

Do they also 'volunteer' to sit it out in quarantine for a couple of weeks?

Just curious is all....

Cheers
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 00:48
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Originally Posted by Ex FSO GRIFFO
I wonder what the 'arrangements' are for the necessary Flight / Cabin Crews of the aircraft, both 'civilian' and RAAF (?) who are slotted to transport those who elect to come back, Darwin to Christmas Is.?

Do they also 'volunteer' to sit it out in quarantine for a couple of weeks?

Just curious is all....

Cheers
RAAF crews could always don MOPP4
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 00:56
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Originally Posted by slats11
Continued exponential growth

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro

14,550 confirmed cases
19,554 suspected (they have a shortage of test kits)
304 dead
2,112 serious infections
Okey doke, slats, so the data that you are looking at there does not evidence exponential growth, certainly not over the last week at least. The growth MAY have shown some evidence of exponentiality at the outset but it appears to be resolving to simple linear growth for both infections and deaths, particularly over the last week.

Look at the two graphs; notice how the plot is resolving from an initial upward curve to a much straighter line? That's not what you see with exponental growth.

What you are looking from say the 25th onwards is in fact a declining linear change in the infections from initially around daily growth of 40 per cent down to 22 per cent over the last two days. You're seeing something similar with the number of deaths and the fatality rate; since the 25th the fatality rate has fallen from 2.8-ish per cent down to a smidge over 2 per cent.

Now, there's always a potential issue looking at data samples for time periods that are shorter than the incubation period, so let's just wait and see.

Bottom line though, that's not exponential growth (or if it is it is so weakly exponential as to approximate linear).
​​
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 01:13
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I think we would both acknowledge confirmed cases are exponential rather than linear.We differ on how exponential.

https://www.scmp.com/asia
2600 new cases for Saturday.
Total confirmed 14,380

Nothing linear about that

Thats confirmed cases where authorities have acknowledged they have outstripped the ability to confirm.

So how many unconfirmed cases? Some suggesting 5,000. Some people suggesting 25,000. Some suggesting 75,000. nothing linear about any of these estimates.






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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 01:22
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QFA6031 (VH-OEE) just departed Sydney for Hong Kong. The mission has begun.
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 01:35
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Originally Posted by slats11
I think we would both acknowledge confirmed cases are exponential rather than linear.We differ on how exponential.

https://www.scmp.com/asia
2600 new cases for Saturday.
Total confirmed 14,380

Nothing linear about that
I'm not going to argue about the meaning of widely accepted mathematical and statistical terms.

2600 new cases on top of 11,780 cases the day prior is an increase of 22%. It is exactly the same growth rate of 22% as exhibited the day before that in the Worldometer data. That's linear!

The daily growth rates for confirmed infections for the 28th, 29th and 30th were 32%, 29% and 26%. Note how the daily growth rate is declining? That's not exponential growth!
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 02:17
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OK. Mick. I might leave it there. The truth is we don't really know, and we will agree to disagree.

One of us will be closer to the truth, and frankly I hope it is you.

This video appears authentic. Records 8 deaths (3% of the official total fatality rate) in just 5 minutes in one part of one hospital.
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 02:32
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Number of new confirmed cases may just reflect the maximum testing rate.
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 02:33
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You guys are arguing about a three day sample in which several factors could be at play including

a refining of the rate value based on the larger numbers
a shortage of test kits, especially outside of Wuhan, and including none in Indonesia and Philippines before Friday
a reluctance to report
beneficial effects of infection control.

early days still.

Reported cases on top, deaths below

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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 02:55
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus
You guys are arguing about a three day sample in which several factors could be at play including

a refining of the rate value based on the larger numbers
a shortage of test kits, especially outside of Wuhan, and including none in Indonesia and Philippines before Friday
a reluctance to report
beneficial effects of infection control.

early days still.

Reported cases on top, deaths below
My first comment addressed the week's data to 1 February. In any event I acknowledged that there could be some issues with reviewing a small data sample and that we should wait and see.

My point was that what the full data set currently shows does not look exponential growth. And it's just misinformed to say that it does. And it's that sort of misinformation that is unhelpful in dealing with these sort of outbreaks. Underplaying the threat is certainly dangerous but so to is whipping up hysteria.

Originally Posted by *Lancer*
Number of new confirmed cases may just reflect the maximum testing rate.
Or it could reflect the maximum daily administrative output for whomever is entering the data. It could be plenty of things.
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 03:50
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus
You guys are arguing about a three day sample in which several factors could be at play including

a refining of the rate value based on the larger numbers
a shortage of test kits, especially outside of Wuhan, and including none in Indonesia and Philippines before Friday
a reluctance to report
beneficial effects of infection control.

early days still.
You, Mick et al, are ALL arguing about something which is described in accordance with the wishes of the CPC who will NEVER tell the truth. Why waste your keystrokes? Chinese culture is paying for either an indulgence in eating raw bat and other things not meant to be consumed or a haphazard approach to their bio-warfare program safety. Take your pick.

What I'm more interested in knowing is how many of the Wuhan escapees who got out before the gate was shut are now in Oz.
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 03:52
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I sincerely hope that this isn’t a case of 3.6 roentgen in an infection sense due lack of test kits...

j3
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