Flights from China
When something doesn't add up, its usually because you don't have all the facts
An account of life in Wuhan
This is why China locked down cities
This is why China have deployed 10,000 extra doctors to Wuhan city
This is why people in Huanggang are confined to their houses
This is why Apple and Starbucks have closed their stores in China
This is why China have severely curtailed CNY celebrations
This is why China have delayed the start of the school / university year
This is why China is closed for business
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...osed-next-week
Now, does Australia have that stipulated 90-day minimum of fuel imports? No, no actually we have 18 days petrol, 22 days diesel, and 23 days Jet.
Well then, does Australia still have a domestic oil refining capability? Ooops.
An account of life in Wuhan
This is why China locked down cities
This is why China have deployed 10,000 extra doctors to Wuhan city
This is why people in Huanggang are confined to their houses
This is why Apple and Starbucks have closed their stores in China
This is why China have severely curtailed CNY celebrations
This is why China have delayed the start of the school / university year
This is why China is closed for business
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...osed-next-week
Now, does Australia have that stipulated 90-day minimum of fuel imports? No, no actually we have 18 days petrol, 22 days diesel, and 23 days Jet.
Well then, does Australia still have a domestic oil refining capability? Ooops.
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Private Jets
Are we out of step here? Shouldn’t all flights to and from China be stopped? Interested in all thoughts, not a Qantas bashing thread.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...s-border-china
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...s-border-china
Currently no restrictions for Private Jets. Who is tracking those that come into the UK?
- These are not fitted with winglets and are relatively short-legged. At least one refuelling stop would be required between Wuhan and NZ: arranging this would be problematic, I think
- Maximum seating is about 200, so if you're going to put some medics on board to provide in-flight assistance, you're not going to extract many 'Corona Virus Refugees'
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Source: Daily Telegraph, 01 Feb 20, pg 3
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Because there are more than 30,000 Chinese students due to arrive soon at the University of Sydney and University of NSW. They want to get them here before the borders close in time for the start of semester. Full fee paying international $tudent$ are highly lucrative.
Source: Daily Telegraph, 01 Feb 20, pg 3
Source: Daily Telegraph, 01 Feb 20, pg 3
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Students from China make up almost a third of the 730,000 foreigners studying in Australia, and are therefore responsible for a large chunk of the $30 billion the tertiary education sector earns from international students.
Continued exponential growth
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro
14,550 confirmed cases
19,554 suspected (they have a shortage of test kits)
304 dead
2,112 serious infections
Despite Australian being a relatively small country, we are the highest number of cases outside China for a country that is some distance from China. We have the same number of cases as USA & Canada combined.
The only countries higher than Australia are countries that are very close to or border China
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...navirus-cases/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro
14,550 confirmed cases
19,554 suspected (they have a shortage of test kits)
304 dead
2,112 serious infections
Despite Australian being a relatively small country, we are the highest number of cases outside China for a country that is some distance from China. We have the same number of cases as USA & Canada combined.
The only countries higher than Australia are countries that are very close to or border China
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...navirus-cases/
Last edited by slats11; 2nd Feb 2020 at 00:11.
if they aren’t permanent residents they won’t be let in right?
I wonder what the 'arrangements' are for the necessary Flight / Cabin Crews of the aircraft, both 'civilian' and RAAF (?) who are slotted to transport those who elect to come back, Darwin to Christmas Is.?
Do they also 'volunteer' to sit it out in quarantine for a couple of weeks?
Just curious is all....
Cheers
Do they also 'volunteer' to sit it out in quarantine for a couple of weeks?
Just curious is all....
Cheers
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I wonder what the 'arrangements' are for the necessary Flight / Cabin Crews of the aircraft, both 'civilian' and RAAF (?) who are slotted to transport those who elect to come back, Darwin to Christmas Is.?
Do they also 'volunteer' to sit it out in quarantine for a couple of weeks?
Just curious is all....
Cheers
Do they also 'volunteer' to sit it out in quarantine for a couple of weeks?
Just curious is all....
Cheers
Continued exponential growth
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro
14,550 confirmed cases
19,554 suspected (they have a shortage of test kits)
304 dead
2,112 serious infections
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro
14,550 confirmed cases
19,554 suspected (they have a shortage of test kits)
304 dead
2,112 serious infections
Look at the two graphs; notice how the plot is resolving from an initial upward curve to a much straighter line? That's not what you see with exponental growth.
What you are looking from say the 25th onwards is in fact a declining linear change in the infections from initially around daily growth of 40 per cent down to 22 per cent over the last two days. You're seeing something similar with the number of deaths and the fatality rate; since the 25th the fatality rate has fallen from 2.8-ish per cent down to a smidge over 2 per cent.
Now, there's always a potential issue looking at data samples for time periods that are shorter than the incubation period, so let's just wait and see.
Bottom line though, that's not exponential growth (or if it is it is so weakly exponential as to approximate linear).
I think we would both acknowledge confirmed cases are exponential rather than linear.We differ on how exponential.
https://www.scmp.com/asia
2600 new cases for Saturday.
Total confirmed 14,380
Nothing linear about that
Thats confirmed cases where authorities have acknowledged they have outstripped the ability to confirm.
So how many unconfirmed cases? Some suggesting 5,000. Some people suggesting 25,000. Some suggesting 75,000. nothing linear about any of these estimates.
https://www.scmp.com/asia
2600 new cases for Saturday.
Total confirmed 14,380
Nothing linear about that
Thats confirmed cases where authorities have acknowledged they have outstripped the ability to confirm.
So how many unconfirmed cases? Some suggesting 5,000. Some people suggesting 25,000. Some suggesting 75,000. nothing linear about any of these estimates.
I think we would both acknowledge confirmed cases are exponential rather than linear.We differ on how exponential.
https://www.scmp.com/asia
2600 new cases for Saturday.
Total confirmed 14,380
Nothing linear about that
https://www.scmp.com/asia
2600 new cases for Saturday.
Total confirmed 14,380
Nothing linear about that
2600 new cases on top of 11,780 cases the day prior is an increase of 22%. It is exactly the same growth rate of 22% as exhibited the day before that in the Worldometer data. That's linear!
The daily growth rates for confirmed infections for the 28th, 29th and 30th were 32%, 29% and 26%. Note how the daily growth rate is declining? That's not exponential growth!
OK. Mick. I might leave it there. The truth is we don't really know, and we will agree to disagree.
One of us will be closer to the truth, and frankly I hope it is you.
This video appears authentic. Records 8 deaths (3% of the official total fatality rate) in just 5 minutes in one part of one hospital.
One of us will be closer to the truth, and frankly I hope it is you.
You guys are arguing about a three day sample in which several factors could be at play including
a refining of the rate value based on the larger numbers
a shortage of test kits, especially outside of Wuhan, and including none in Indonesia and Philippines before Friday
a reluctance to report
beneficial effects of infection control.
early days still.
Reported cases on top, deaths below
a refining of the rate value based on the larger numbers
a shortage of test kits, especially outside of Wuhan, and including none in Indonesia and Philippines before Friday
a reluctance to report
beneficial effects of infection control.
early days still.
Reported cases on top, deaths below
You guys are arguing about a three day sample in which several factors could be at play including
a refining of the rate value based on the larger numbers
a shortage of test kits, especially outside of Wuhan, and including none in Indonesia and Philippines before Friday
a reluctance to report
beneficial effects of infection control.
early days still.
Reported cases on top, deaths below
a refining of the rate value based on the larger numbers
a shortage of test kits, especially outside of Wuhan, and including none in Indonesia and Philippines before Friday
a reluctance to report
beneficial effects of infection control.
early days still.
Reported cases on top, deaths below
My point was that what the full data set currently shows does not look exponential growth. And it's just misinformed to say that it does. And it's that sort of misinformation that is unhelpful in dealing with these sort of outbreaks. Underplaying the threat is certainly dangerous but so to is whipping up hysteria.
You guys are arguing about a three day sample in which several factors could be at play including
a refining of the rate value based on the larger numbers
a shortage of test kits, especially outside of Wuhan, and including none in Indonesia and Philippines before Friday
a reluctance to report
beneficial effects of infection control.
early days still.
a refining of the rate value based on the larger numbers
a shortage of test kits, especially outside of Wuhan, and including none in Indonesia and Philippines before Friday
a reluctance to report
beneficial effects of infection control.
early days still.
What I'm more interested in knowing is how many of the Wuhan escapees who got out before the gate was shut are now in Oz.