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Old 31st Jan 2020, 23:04
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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I think you will find a lot of the airline response in dropping flights to China is largely commercial rather than benevolent at this point in time.
The Chinese government has banned group tours and largely outbound tourism, which I imagine is making up a large amount of passengers generally taking these flights - especially in the CNY high season right now.
If you take away the outbound tourism aspect from China (due to the government restrictions) and the inbound travel aspect from other countries (due to businesses/universities/governments restricting travel for their staff, it's a good scapegoat for airlines to drop services which are almost certainly loss making. ??Load factors both ways dropping off a cliff is already an anecdotal scenario.
That combined with the duty of care aspect for flight crew operating and laying over, and any ground staff that they may directly employ in these foreign stations... a legal issue may begin to arise too.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 23:20
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Re post #21

That study has some pretty farfetched conclusions based solely on the authors' inability to imagine that the coronavirus glycoprotein's mutation is the most likely thing to change about a virus. That they say that the advent of GP120 could only be through a mad scientist experiment that escaped is fanciful, without evidence, and hardly helpful.

Viruses, and especially RNA viruses, change their proteins all the time. That’s why there are seven distinct human coronaviruses. The bulk of the RNA in a virus is used to regulate protein production. GP120 in HIV binds to receptors on the T4 cells, as I recall.

Like SARS, The Wuhan virus apparently* binds to ACE2 receptors on those cells which express that, which are found primarily deep in the lungs, the heart and kidneys. The presence or otherwise of GP120 does not seem to be a thing in allowing membrane fusion of the virus with any other kind of cell as evidenced in any papers that I have read.

Conspiracy theories aren’t helpful. Facebook and Twitter have adopted a policy if flagging these kinds of stories.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 23:31
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I reckon Qants won’t cancel any flights to China until university starts back in early March. If you look at the pax on board these flights between Sydney to Shanghai/Beijing (especially between late November to early March), I dare say a very large proportion of them are international students.

Once university starts up again in March, there will be bugger all people flying to/from China and Qantas will have no option other than to cancel flights unless they are willing to lose money.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 00:03
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Originally Posted by Rated De
...
2. The very real possibility that with an R0>2.5 this thing could well be a pandemic.
R0 is not a necessarily good indicator of pandemicity. Measles has an R0 of 12-16, seasonal influenza has an R0 of 1.3.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 00:05
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Mick, That’s an interesting observation to a layman like myself. Why is it that such a high RO doesn’t result in pandemic? Is it to do with established immunity?
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 00:19
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
R0 is not a necessarily good indicator of pandemicity. Measles has an R0 of 12-16, seasonal influenza has an R0 of 1.3.
Herd immunity, courtesy of vaccinations, renders measles inconsequential, except of course in clusters of fact-resistant flat earthers.

So, yeah, the R value alone doesn’t predict spread except for those diseases for which there are no natural limits. Even then, diseases like SARS were eliminated because of behaviour changes and other factors.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 00:35
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A mate working at Port Botany told me that they had a container vessel arrive earlier in the week, directly from China.

Crew had to stay in sleeping quarters unless they had to interact with staff, if there was interaction, they had to stand 2m apart.

I should have asked if that was Aust Quarantine directions, the company, the union or the captain.

He sent me the following from the union which you may find interesting or not.
Below are just some of the MUA’s responses to the Government’s failure to address adequately, the health and ongoing concerns from the public and Unions to the threat of the Coronavirus on Australia’s Ports.

Paddy Crumlin on ABC PM program last night:
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/program...sport/11915126

Jake Field, MUA National Training & Safety Officer's radio interview on ABC:
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/newcast...ncern/11910974

The Illawarra Mercury
https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/...ecks-at-ports/

The Newcastle Herald:
https://www.newcastleherald.com.a
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 00:36
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Originally Posted by Wingspar
A great PR exercise for Qantas.
Helping Australians when they need it.
Qudos for the crew.
With all the cameras I hope to see AJ stepping down from the aircraft when it arrives in AUS!
Leadership from the front.
What does Qudos Bank have to do with it?
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 00:43
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Maritime union is (rightly so) concerned about a large amount of cargo and a few crew. In stark contrast the aviation unions are tight lipped about a huge number of living, breathing, potential hosts.

should have stayed a yachtie...
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 02:14
  #30 (permalink)  
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“Certain US officials’ words and actions are neither factual nor appropriate,” China’s foreign affairs ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said in a statement.

“Just as the WHO recommended against travel restrictions, the US rushed to go in the opposite way. Certainly not a gesture of goodwill.”



The above was copied from an article about the virus. China is complaining that airlines are cancelling flights.. they are not showing ‘ goodwill’. With an attitude like that.. it worries me what China my actually be hiding.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 02:47
  #31 (permalink)  
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeboy.../#38996b08208c

An interesting article on numbers of pax’s for US airlines.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 02:48
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9th Feb 2020

So now, after 10 cases, QF will be stopping mainland China flights....
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 02:59
  #33 (permalink)  
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/qant...01-p53wtv.html

Why wait till the 9th?

Last edited by dragon man; 1st Feb 2020 at 02:59. Reason: Add comment
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 03:08
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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They are not stopping because of the Health and Safety aspect but for the reason that Singapore, UAE and USA have just put a 14day Quarantine in place for any foreign passport holders who have recently visited china. So obviously from a logistics point of you this would cripple all other operations for Qantas. They are taking there time to wind down the services and get the crew and aircraft in the correct placesl
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 03:10
  #35 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Ollie Onion
They are not stopping because of the Health and Safety aspect but for the reason that Singapore, UAE and USA have just put a 14day Quarantine in place for any foreign passport holders who have recently visited china. So obviously from a logistics point of you this would cripple all other operations for Qantas. They are taking there time to wind down the services and get the crew and aircraft in the correct placesl
In other words putting $$$ before welfare of the crews and public.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 03:16
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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It's ridiculous. Mainland China / Hong Kong should be stopped effective immediately.

The government should be banning ALL flights from China and Hong Kong!

Which moron do we have to put in place as PM to get some decision making happening around here.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 03:17
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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I Honestly think Qantas and Virgin should be suspending flights between Australia Hong Kong also. Hong Kong has refused to close its border so there is still movement there. Does any crew seriously want to go to Hong Kong atm?
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 03:19
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SilverSleuth
Does any crew seriously want to go to Hong Kong atm?
Not me.

Stand up for yourself. it's just not worth the risk with kids at home.

Last edited by normanton; 1st Feb 2020 at 03:36.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 04:05
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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The Rat will now suspend flights to mainland china.

Their two flights are a drop in the ocean compared to the hordes coming in on Chinese carriers. I meant "carriers" in the airline sense of course, not the disease sense.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 04:09
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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Has anyone told Scotty from marketing about FORDEC or GRADE?
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