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Flights from China

Old 3rd Feb 2020, 08:21
  #141 (permalink)  
 
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Yes, Muttley, the economists and the Greens would be happy to see all those “useless mouths” eliminated. It is a Nazi term - “useless eaters”
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 09:46
  #142 (permalink)  
 
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Some of the most disgusting comments I have ever read on this forum. You should be ashamed of yourself.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 10:15
  #143 (permalink)  
 
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Que? Baron, you do know what “triage” means? ‘Pithecus I guess is in the same group as me. We already know what treatment is available to us if we catch this bug during a full blown pandemic. We accept it.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 10:20
  #144 (permalink)  
 
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If we can get back onto topic about the aviation aspect here...

Due to the delays, that 747 isn't going to get out of Learmonth into Sydney before curfew (maybe they could have a dispensation if it was full of evacuees, but not as a reposition). So it leaves the question what will happen with the QF crew who have to overnight now in Learmonth? My point being these staff were just transporting possibly infected evacuees, how would a local hotel feel about having them? Or will they get put up in the RAAF quarters?
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 11:17
  #145 (permalink)  
 
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Thumbs down

Dispensation granted.
Aircraft departed YPLM, eta YSSY approx 0300 local.
Pls check your copy of the Sydney curfew act, specifically Sections 18 and 19, and the words ‘in connection with’.

Of more interest is the tech crew that operated ZHHH-YPLM, due to pax to YSSY tomorrow via Perth...
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 14:43
  #146 (permalink)  
 
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Right you are mate.

Embarrassed I didn't even consider a dispensation!!
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 21:24
  #147 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus View Post
I read the same report you did, fdr, about the ACE2 receptor and its distribution by race. I was surprised that they even published it showing a higher incidence in the Chinese population based on one sole example. SARS gained entry via the ACE2 receptor; I haven’t been able to find a study showing a higher incidence of ACE2 by race or ethnicity.
For SARS there was no evidence of an association between ACE receptor polymorphisms and outcomes...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1090578/


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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 22:44
  #148 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunfish View Post
Que? Baron, you do know what “triage” means?
My comment is referencing this post from Muttley:
’I am hoping the daily delta gets a LOT smaller soon’
Well I'm not. Earth's plague population could do with some thinning out. Imagine a billion less people in the ecosystem, especially a billion of the least environmentally-aware and animal-friendly.
Relishing the though of one billion innocent people losing their lives is reprehensible and smacks of racism. The comments are disgusting and your question is irrelevant.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 22:54
  #149 (permalink)  
 
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My thoughts exactly. But music to the Greens ears.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 23:00
  #150 (permalink)  
 
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Relishing the though of one billion innocent people losing their lives is reprehensible and smacks of racism. The comments are disgusting and your question is irrelevant.
Virtue signal 5 x 5.

Thanks for pointing this out and policing the internet against bigotry. Your efforts do not go unappreciated.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 23:51
  #151 (permalink)  
 
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Surely the most likely scenario is that the mortality rate is actually much lower than currently projected. I would think that the stats on those that have died would be fairly accurate due to the majority of those people being in hospital care at the time of death. I am skeptical about the infection numbers though as there is a lot of evidence emerging that people who are suspected of having the virus but with mild to no symptoms are just being isolated at home and won't count in the official infection numbers as they are not being tested. Many scientists are saying the actual infection numbers are likely to be 70,000 plus. So far outside of China we have 151 cases confirmed and 1 death which equates to a mortality rate of less than 0.5-1%, if you use the projected numbers in China of 70,000 infections with 380 deaths it gives a mortality of 0.54%. Obviously we need more time to see trends and true numbers but I am thinking the use of the phrase 'killer virus' is a little hysterical and is helping to create this worldwide panic and rise in racism. Read the NY Times excellent article on the the timeline of this virus and it would appear that it was know about in very early December having infected many people prior to that and it took a good while for the Chinese to front up with the information only after numerous health workers were arrested for posting about the emerging threat. Also in the article there are many case studies of the victims in Germany who self cared at home for two or three days thinking they had a cold or flu and only once recovered found out their work mate had been tested and confirmed to have corona virus which led them to be tested to find that had been infected as well. I am starting to think the WHO are spot on with their advice to NOT have border or trade restrictions and that we have followed the USA in a slightly panicked response driven more by xenophobia than actual scientific evidence. Also they are now saying that it is not transmitted when asymptomatic but in fact those people just had such mild symptoms that they didn't even consider themselves to be ill i.e. a bit of a sore throat but otherwise fine. The shame of the whole thing is that in future China may be much less forthcoming with any information about new virus' after the reaction to this one.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 00:02
  #152 (permalink)  
 
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Well, these comments are deteriorating quickly.

On the science side, according to the John Hopkins CSSE counts, in Hubei there have been 13,522 cases with 426 deaths; this is a 3% death rate. Of the entire remaining cases worldwide there are 6479 infections and 12 deaths, for a rate of 0.18%. This either means cases are being massively under-reported in Hubei or there is a lag from infection to outcome. Seems odd.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 00:56
  #153 (permalink)  
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https://wuflu.live/

Best way to see the numbers I’ve found and doesn’t look good to me.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 01:42
  #154 (permalink)  
 
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The problem currently with CFR figures is that we haven’t yet (I think) got a statistically valid sample size.

Winemaker and Ollie could both be right - there could be under reporting and there most definitely is a lag between diagnosed onset and death which I have heard is about 14 days so far. That means the cumulative deaths so far are from a population size of 14 days ago.

If you look at those numbers today, you get jibberish - 400+ deaths from a reported 300 cases! We need a sample of say 500 patients who are followed until they recover or die - only then will we know. My unfortunate guess so far is for a CFR well above seasonal flu.

But it gets worse, the CFR we are talking about is with first class medical care which won’t be available if this gets out of hand since our medical resources will be overwhelmed.

IF we can’t contact trace effectively and don’t do quarantine properly, then all that is left is social distancing- close schools, universities, sporting events, pubs, restaurants and all non essential interactions until this burns out or we get a vaccine. I think that is where China is at today.

IF we stuff up social distancing then we are in the territory of “continuity of Government” plans, and you had better have your own food and supplies if that happens.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 01:53
  #155 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Winemaker View Post
Well, these comments are deteriorating quickly.

On the science side, according to the John Hopkins CSSE counts, in Hubei there have been 13,522 cases with 426 deaths; this is a 3% death rate. Of the entire remaining cases worldwide there are 6479 infections and 12 deaths, for a rate of 0.18%. This either means cases are being massively under-reported in Hubei or there is a lag from infection to outcome. Seems odd.
The New York Times had an article yesterday claiming that the hospitals in Wuhan are saturated, there is a hundreds long wait for ambulances and people are being turned away everywhere. And dying at home, undetected. The article painted a picture reminiscent of the black death.

In any event, we know both cases and deaths are underreported, and we know that people take quite awhile to die, so the deaths are lagging cases by probably a week, give or take.

i am looking for a reason for hope too, but still haven’t found it.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 01:59
  #156 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ollie Onion View Post
The shame of the whole thing is that in future China may be much less forthcoming with any information about new virus' after the reaction to this one.
WHO shares that concern as well. They don't think the virus meets the requirements for a cancellation of flights.

Last edited by FlareArmed2; 4th Feb 2020 at 02:21.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 02:21
  #157 (permalink)  
 
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I just look at the data as it is published. A good way to look at infection data is using a logarithm scale. This clearly shows if the rate of increase each day is increasing (very bad), stable (bad), or decreasing (good).

Spoiler alert: it's good news.





"Cases" are number of cases reported in mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University.
Y-axis is plotted as a logarithm, so straight lines on graph show the exponential rate.
Coloured lines on chart show examples of specified daily increase in number of cases reported. They are not lines of best fit.


So we can see that in the early stages the number of cases increased at about 50% per day, or more than doubled every two days. From about 28 Jan the rate decreased to about 25%. Recently the rate of increase has dropped even further. Conclusion: the rate of increase is no longer exponential but is moving towards a null rate of increase.

The second graph shows the daily rate of increase for each day. There is large scatter in the early days when the number of cases was low. More recently the data points have become less scattered and show a clear trend downwards. Conclusion: the rate of increase in number of cases is going down, so it is moving in the correct direction. This is very good news.




"Daily change" for mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University.
Coloured lines on chart are linear lines of best fit.
Lines extending beyond data points are extrapolated and therefore not data-based but are speculative.


It's important not to read too much into this data. There could be further outbreaks in countries with poor medical care, for example, or a cluster of outbreaks elsewhere. But the trend is going the right way. By the end of February it is possible that we will start to see an overall decline in the number of cases (ie the trend becomes negative). I am optimistic that this will occur before the end of February but it may take some time to recognise.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 02:38
  #158 (permalink)  
 
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Good news?

Ah but is the slow down due to lower transmission or due to other factors such as hospitals swamped or running out of test kits?
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 02:57
  #159 (permalink)  
 
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The problem, as I’m sure everyone is aware, is how to maintain the trust of the community while advising them of precautions to be taken. If you stuff it up, you either scare the beejesus out of everyone and crash the economy, or worse, or you leave people living in a fools paradise.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 03:10
  #160 (permalink)  
 
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Doctors are perfectly capable of diagnosing nCoV without test kits:

Case definition of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
A suspected or probable case is defined as a case that meets: (1) three clinical criteria or (2) two clinical criteria and one epidemiological criterion. Clinical criteria are: fever; radiographic evidence of pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome; and low or normal white blood cell count or low lymphocyte count. Epidemiological criteria are: living in Wuhan or travel history to Wuhan within 14 days before symptom onset; contact with patients with fever and symptoms of respiratory infection within 14 days before symptom onset; and a link to any confirmed cases or clusters of suspected cases.
The definition of a confirmed case, for the first case in a province, is a suspected or probable case with detection of viral nucleic acid at the city CDC and provincial CDC. For the second case and all subsequent cases, the definition is a suspected or probable case with detection of virus nucleic acid at the city CDC.
Source: The Lancet

I cannot speak to the general concern about "running out of test kits". It may be true, or it may not. I don't think it's true of countries outside of China, yet they are also showing a significant decline in the rate of increase in new cases; even better than mainland China. If outside China is declining, why wouldn't cases inside China also decline, albeit at a lesser rate due to the sheer numbers involved?

You can expect the worst if you want to. Look at the this posting from just a few days ago: Post 10676945 which says "(this) model has predicted the outcome very accurately so far". The model predicted 52,500 case by 3 Feb whereas the actual number is c. 20,000, hardly "very accurate". This illustrates the problem with extrapolation and assuming that no action shall be taken to reduce spread. That's not what happens in real life.

We have extensive experience in dealing with outbreaks before. They typically follow a pattern of initial exponential growth, followed by reduced increases as quarantine and immunisation efforts take hold. No case is smooth; there are bureaucratic delays, shortages of equipment, and foot-dragging by politicians all the time. Look at the Ebola crisis from a few years ago. It happened before and is happening now.

What is different this time around is the aggressive isolation policy by the Chinese government. We've not seen entire cities and provinces shutdown since the Middle Ages. This makes a huge difference. That, coupled with the data showing the same sort of decline as in other outbreaks, gives me confidence that while the road is not entirely smooth it is at least heading in the right direction.
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