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Flights from China

Old 2nd Feb 2020, 22:32
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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We are in furious agreement. I also said it was exponential. What I objected to was that you calculated using two data points and claimed that this made the increase exponential. This is mathematically, scientifically and logically wrong.
So, you are agreeing that it is exponential, but just disagreeing with my method? Is that all we are disagreeing on?

Mathematically, yes you are correct. You can't prove an exponential relationship with just 2 points. But you can sure see something which hints at exponential.

Regardless, the 3rd point (which I respectfully suggest you are missing) is that this started before Christmas. There is no way you can have something start at zero 5 weeks ago, and increase by 25% in the last 34 hours without it being an exponential function.

That notwithstanding, I will update with the next provincial figures when they are made available - hopefully in the next few hours.

The incomplete figures thus far do not look promising.




Therefore, in the absence of (my emphasis) substantial public health interventions ... local establishment of epidemics might become inevitable. On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic in the absence of mitigation (my emphasis). Nevertheless, it might still be possible to secure containment of the spread of infection such that ... transmission does not lead to a large epidemic in locations outside Wuhan.
I agree with all that. There are a lot of "mights" in this

Do you see any substantial public health interventions?

The point is that we agree (I think) that it is currently exponential in China. Despite substantial interventions by China that would be very difficult to implement here. .

Where this ends? Who knows. Time will tell. Hopefully I am wrong. But for now, please lets be able to disagree without becoming disagreeable. Otherwise people simply disengage.
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 22:40
  #122 (permalink)  
 
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According to AFP, 20 French citizens evacuated from Wuhan, China have symptoms of Coronavirus. Earlier in the day, officials said that when the flight left Wuhan, none of the passengers had symptoms of coronavirus.
Who the hell was going to have symptoms leaving Wuhan. They understood what that meant.
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 23:16
  #123 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
So, you are agreeing that it is exponential, but just disagreeing with my method? Is that all we are disagreeing on? ... Mathematically, yes you are correct. You can't prove an exponential relationship with just 2 points. But ...
"My brother once told me that nothing someone says before the word “but” really counts." - Tyrion Lannister

Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
... But you can sure see something which hints at exponential.
Maths and science don't work on "hints". If you have two points on a graph and are asked to draw a line between them, you cannot say that it "hints" at being exponential. Why couldn't it be linear, polynomial, logarithmic, hyperbolic and so forth?

I think you're labouring under the misapprehension that the word "exponential" means "big, scary numbers" or perhaps "big scary numbers getting much bigger". It doesn't mean that at all. I showed you graphically that the exponential rise is decreasing quite quickly, from ~50% to ~25% daily increase--this is good news. Yet you persist in putting up a graph showing total numbers with no context on how they are changing.

It's scaremongering and not very useful.
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 23:30
  #124 (permalink)  
 
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I think you're labouring under the misapprehension that the word "exponential" means "big, scary numbers" or perhaps "big scary numbers getting much bigger". It doesn't mean that at all. I showed you graphically that the exponential rise is decreasing quite quickly, from ~50% to ~25% daily increase--this is good news. Yet you persist in putting up a graph showing total numbers with no context on how they are changing.
No I do not hold that misapprehension. I really do not. I have studied tertiary level biostatistics.

BUT you are looking at a graph based on data which is overwhelmingly based on a single province which has acknowledged it has lost the ability to test.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...reported-hubei
This is from Wuhan overnight.
If you have symptoms of Coronavirus, you are locked away. No confirmatory test as they can't do that anymore. No self-quarantine as that isn't working.
If you have been in contact with someone with Coronavirus, you are locked away. Presumably families and health workers.

Under a new rule that took immediate effect, the government said anyone suspected of being infected with the virus or having been in close contact with a confirmed case would be relocated to a dedicated quarantine centre, whether they liked it or not.
And with that, on with my day and I wish you well.
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Old 2nd Feb 2020, 23:37
  #125 (permalink)  
 
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QF6032 is on the way back to YPLM. Interesting the weird cruising levels.
Started at 7400m, then 8350m, then 8412m, none of which coincide with any round FL in feet.
Throw in a bit of poor English... how do Chinese ATC avoid altitude confusion?
Now maintaining 9780m/32100í.

Last edited by CaptainEmad; 2nd Feb 2020 at 23:53. Reason: Changed again
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 00:32
  #126 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CaptainEmad View Post
QF6032 is on the way back to YPLM. Interesting the weird cruising levels.
Started at 7400m, then 8350m, then 8412m, none of which coincide with any round FL in feet.
Throw in a bit of poor English... how do Chinese ATC avoid altitude confusion?
Now maintaining 9780m/32100í.
Simples. Do as you are told and if in doubt "say again".
I bet that Chinese ATC's English is better than your mandarin.
Looks like flight level 7 thousand 4 hundred metres, flight level 8 thousand 4 hundred metres, then flight level 9 thousand 8 hundred metres.
All standard metric levels.
You are welcome.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 01:40
  #127 (permalink)  
 
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The numbers coming out are reassuring. Weíre well below the doubling every 2 days threshold.

I have no idea why everyone is so sceptical of the Chinese stats. A province of 60 million will still have extensive pathology resources in ordinary times and undoubtedly everything else is getting pushed aside. Other provinces with relatively few cases must be performing thousands and thousands of tests every day.

Furthermore NO ONE has an incentive to lie. The Chinese government will be on a witch hunt after this, finding and punishing anyone who covered up cases. The government only benefits from transparency at this point.

A lot of anti-CCP Chinese and anti-Xi forces within the party will be using the chaos to their advantage, plenty of blatantly fake videos out there.

The deaths numbers are improving, we would expect this to go the other way if hospitals are overwhelmed and only the sickest are getting tested.

In NSW we have had no new cases in a week and huge numbers being tested. Hand hygiene within the population is probably the best it has ever been, fingers crossed that benefit carries over to our flu season.


I have never seen so much FUD in my life. The news sites must be loving the traffic boost.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 02:34
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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Umm...Are we looking at the same data? The incidence rate is still tracking about 21% higher as it has been for the last few days.

Anyway, we should* be seeing a slowing of the spread, but that might have already occurred with the reduction from the earlier rate of 29%/day.

* if isolation and the other infection control measures work. I am hoping the daily delta gets a LOT smaller soon.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 03:40
  #129 (permalink)  
 
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We probably are looking at the same data.

I have repeatedly seen claims that doubling every 2 days would be the benchmark and we are well short of that. Whether that is useful or not I donít know but Iíll run with it. Based on 446 cases on January 21 we would expect 57000 tomorrow, if there are 40000 new cases announced tomorrow Iíll be the first to run around like a headless chicken.

10 days ago I was envisaging apocalyptic levels of contagion which so far do not seem to be playing out. Every day that goes by the scientists are working around the clock on vaccines, treatments etc.

To top it off we still have almost no transmission outside of China, including in culturally and racially similar countries. If that isnít cause for optimism I donít know what is.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 03:58
  #130 (permalink)  
 
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Anyone else not understand the route this aircraft is taking? Looks like tracking for YPDN
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 04:57
  #131 (permalink)  
fdr
 
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data

NEJM noted the saturation of the analysis process for cases from "8 JAN" (data actually shows that occurred the day before). For some period thereafter, there would be a likely underreporting, and then at a later time a slight increase in reported rate as the tail catches up to the head.

took the available info and lagged dates for the Chinese and Non Chinese cases. Even with the awareness of the problem since late December, the Non Chinese cases are showing a progression in case numbers that are close to the Chinese experience, with a 22 day lag. Too early to say that any action in the international response has been particularly effective as yet. The numbers over the next 7 days will tell the story. The fatality overseas in Philippines was of a Chinese national. Fatality rates over the next 7 days will give a picture as to what extent the ACE2 receptor plays in the progression of the illness.

Asymptomatic transfer sucks, and that suggests reduction in contacts is a wise move. The virus like all corona viruses is quite large, and is not aerosolised, so surface and droplet control are tools to be applied.


x=22



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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 04:59
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BlackPanther View Post
Anyone else not understand the route this aircraft is taking? Looks like tracking for YPDN
Word around the campfire is that the Indon Govt wouldnít pay for the chemtrail. Wait, are we supposed to discuss that here?
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 05:10
  #133 (permalink)  
 
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ABC News radio just had a report from Wuhan stating that from tomorrow they were going to have 2000 test kits available every day, up from the current 200​​​​​!

If they’ve only had 200 kits a day the the data is worse than useless.

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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 05:13
  #134 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CaptainEmad View Post
Word around the campfire is that the Indon Govt wouldnít pay for the chemtrail. Wait, are we supposed to discuss that here?
Ding dong, ASIO calling!
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 05:17
  #135 (permalink)  
 
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Maybe forgot to select LNAV?
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 05:30
  #136 (permalink)  
 
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. took the available info and lagged dates for the Chinese and Non Chinese cases. Even with the awareness of the problem since late December, the Non Chinese cases are showing a progression in case numbers that are close to the Chinese experience, with a 22 day lag. Too early to say that any action in the international response has been particularly effective as yet. The numbers over the next 7 days will tell the story. The fatality overseas in Philippines was of a Chinese national. Fatality rates over the next 7 days will give a picture as to what extent the ACE2 receptor plays in the progression of the illness.
I read the same report you did, fdr, about the ACE2 receptor and its distribution by race. I was surprised that they even published it showing a higher incidence in the Chinese population based on one sole example. SARS gained entry via the ACE2 receptor; I haven’t been able to find a study showing a higher incidence of ACE2 by race or ethnicity.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 05:40
  #137 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by patty50 View Post
We probably are looking at the same data.

I have repeatedly seen claims that doubling every 2 days would be the benchmark and we are well short of that. Whether that is useful or not I donít know but Iíll run with it. Based on 446 cases on January 21 we would expect 57000 tomorrow, if there are 40000 new cases announced tomorrow Iíll be the first to run around like a headless chicken.

10 days ago I was envisaging apocalyptic levels of contagion which so far do not seem to be playing out. Every day that goes by the scientists are working around the clock on vaccines, treatments etc.

To top it off we still have almost no transmission outside of China, including in culturally and racially similar countries. If that isnít cause for optimism I donít know what is.
Oh, sorry, I hadnít seen those claims. Doubling every two days would be unlikely...that would get the entire world in two months. Its bad enough going up around 45% every two days, which should take a couple of weeks longer*

*I know thatís not going to happen for several reasons. I think the rate is going to slow down with isolation, etc, but probably not below the level of say flu. Which is of course as much wishful thinking as anything
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 06:25
  #138 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus View Post
I read the same report you did, fdr, about the ACE2 receptor and its distribution by race. I was surprised that they even published it showing a higher incidence in the Chinese population based on one sole example. SARS gained entry via the ACE2 receptor; I havenít been able to find a study showing a higher incidence of ACE2 by race or ethnicity.
Yup, that was my concern as well, however, the knowledge on the receptor itself is of interest. A sample of one example is of itself meaningless, but given the source, I suspect the authors are well aware of that, and have additional information that is not referenced. The outcomes appear to have variations in severity, and that was the reason for interest in possible co-factors. To date, there has been a less severe outcome outside of the PRC, questions are whether that is just a factor of timing (lag between the PRC and the world looks like around 22 days... ) or environmental, support medical capabilities, or population related. Question is whether at this moment in the life cycle of this virus the PRC population got hit by weather, genetics and demographic factors in an unfortunate way. Sorting that out could lead to a better outcome through more effective global response.

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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 07:03
  #139 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus View Post
I am hoping the daily delta gets a LOT smaller soon.
Well I'm not. Earth's plague population could do with some thinning out. Imagine a billion less people in the ecosystem, especially a billion of the least environmentally-aware and animal-friendly. It'd halve emissions for a start and do more for the planet than recycling every single plastic bottle in existence and this would make Greta secretly very happy. Some of the nations in China's direct sphere of influence are probably quietly hoping the same thing.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 07:21
  #140 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Muttley Crew View Post
Well I'm not. Earth's plague population could do with some thinning out. Imagine a billion less people in the ecosystem, especially a billion of the least environmentally-aware and animal-friendly. It'd halve emissions for a start and do more for the planet than recycling every single plastic bottle in existence and this would make Greta secretly very happy. Some of the nations in China's direct sphere of influence are probably quietly hoping the same thing.
Yes indeed, thatís the kind of humanistic attitude we all admire.Be careful what you wish for, you could find someone else burning up your former carbon quota. I am personally right in the target audience for an early funeral, and my viking longboat isnít finished yet so I am hoping for an improvement. For everyone.
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