C130 down NE Cooma

[SCPL_1988]

You are conflating commentary about fire bombing being at low level with the A-DSB data that shows the signal stopped after what appeared to
be severe turbulence. The A-DSB accurately depicts what is expected to be seen by a mid air wing failure.
If you have a link stating a witness saw it enter a valley then post it. I have read every thing I can and have not see that assertion.

So rather than tell us about your achievements and experience, (which are irrelevant) would you kindly put up the link
that corroborates your claim that it disappeared down a valley?

Originally Posted by markis10

LOL, the ADSB does not show the aircraft broke up several thousand feet above the ground, its AMSL, Geometric height is not broadcast via ADSB , and neither is geometric altitude I suspect as that aircraft was most likey not GNSS equipped. One of the facts known it the aircraft was in a bombing run and went into a valley below the height of adjacent terrain following a birddog, only the birddog came out, it was not 1000's of feet above terrain, it was effectively in a faraday cage for Microwave spectrum for land stations.

My comments are based on my experience as a former ATC, helitak pilot, and current RF specialist for microwave data transmission who has driven countless times down the Monaro highway beaconing APRS, not an enthusiast!

[ZAZ]

Originally Posted by unworry

Unlikely, they are usually the lead aircraft.

We don't know yet whether they were on a bombing run, though the flight profile and location aligns with the current firegrounds

A report in the age quotes the spotter aircraft went through a valley and the Herc followed and did not come out behind them.
Unsure where that report originated from fwiw.

[Cyclic Hotline]

Some more information on the history and background of the aircraft. https://fireaviation.com/

[terminus mos]

Some more public speculation from a pilot who has been flying Herks for 40 years
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-...cooma/11894892

The "speculation" was from me.

The ABC, like most journos got it wrong. I have not flown Hercs for 40 years. I have flown a variety of IFR helicopters and FW professionally since 1980. I now have my own Aviation Advisory business with industry, government and end user customers.

I was asked to comment.

[nomorecatering]

I think some people need to lighten up a little. PPRUNE is nothing more than an internet discussion board. It's not an official investigation organisation. It's the electronic equivalent to people standing around a bar talking about events, as most of us do. So speculate away, it's away to get stuff off your chest and frequently brings up things I had never thought about.

[unworry]

Originally Posted by Kagamuga

To those that has offered to 'chip' in and those also whom have sent PM's.
We'll let the dust settle for a few months; wait until the fire season is over. I will then check very carefully to see if any such remembrance or memorial has been undertaken.
I will then contact all you via PM, later on.
I would suggest April, May at this stage....

The Government and NSW RFS need time to undertake and review their protocols etc.

Originally Posted by Kagamuga

A gesture, so please don't read anything in to it......

A plaque for the families of the three lost today would be a kind gesture expressing our appreciation.
If the NSW RFS or Aussie Government does not intend to arrange for same, then I will happily contribute $500 -$100 for three plaques to be made for the families of those lost in the C130 today. I would take advice on the design, wording, etc
Thanks Guy's
Kags!

As a volunteer member of our rural Fire Service for over 20 years, I'd like to thank you and others for sharing your thoughts and kind words. Every loss of life, be it in a brigade or member of the public, profoundly affects those of us fighting the fires on the ground. My thoughts are also with those who need to carrying on the good fight

In the spring, there is an annual ceremony to honour those who have paid the ultimate price for their service. details below.


from https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/about-us/history/honour-roll

"The NSW RFS recognises the contribution and sacrifice of those members who have lost their lives in the line of duty, while helping to protect others in need.

The names of the following volunteers are inscribed on the Volunteer Memorial Honour Roll at Mrs Macquaries Chair, Sydney.

A service is held at the Memorial each October and NSW RFS members, family, friends and members of the community are welcome to attend."

[SCPL_1988]

There is a report in the Age
https://www.theage.com.au/national/n...23-p53u4s.html

QuoteThe C-130 Hercules crashed after 1pm on Thursday while battling the blaze near Cooma, as strong, hot winds swept across NSW, reigniting dozens of fires and wreaking havoc for exhausted firefighters.

Firefighting command lost contact with the aircraft after it made an approach towards a fire in the Snowy Monaro region. The Herald understands a "spotter plane" flying ahead of the American aircraft travelled through a valley near Peak View, but the C-130 never emerged behind it.
Witnesses to the crash told fire control over the radio the aircraft had "crashed" before another man answered him: "It’s just a ball of flames."
End Quote

Take a look at
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.552%2C$multiply_1.5109%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_10 59%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/b0328a640f7bc74b36663bcb00af93d303a7947c

The above picture shows a flight into terrain without any intact bits of wing or fuselage.
This would decrease the probable cause of the accident to being other than an in flight wing failure.

On face Value, this may contradict the A-DSB data that shows stresses flight that looks like
severe turbulence resulting in a wing failure.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/n...24-p53ubf.html


Nine News
https://www.9news.com.au/national/fi...3-940558a02892

This has a radio call, that indicates a flight into the ground.
"Firecoms message red"
yeah it crashed.


"at about 1:30 pm it disappeared off the flight radar"

You Tube

Then

You Tube

"SHORTLY Before 1:30 pm,we lost contact with"
and
"There was a large fireball as it impacted the ground."

When asked about witnesses,the answer was vague.

Witnesses
"Witnesses in the area say they saw a “ball of fire” as the aircraft reportedly hit the ground."
https://7news.com.au/news/bushfires/large-water-bombing-aircraft-has-crashed-at-peak-view-reports-c-661253

Flight Radar 24
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-...54?pfmredir=sm

Print ?subject=ABC%20News:%20Three%20US%20...ane%20c rash. Facebook Twitter More

Three firefighters dead after Large Air Tanker crashes while fighting bushfires in southern NSW

By Kevin Nguyen and Matthew DoranUpdated earlier today at 7:10am

Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.

VIDEO: NSW Premier confirms death of three firefighters after air tanker crash (ABC News)
RELATED STORY: Homes lost as bushfires hit NSW South Coast
RELATED STORY: Blaze that cancelled Canberra flights downgraded to adviceThree US crew members were killed when their Large Air Tanker crashed while fighting a bushfire in southern NSW.

Key points:

• Contact with the aircraft was lost south of Canberra just after 2pm
• The aircraft was brought into Australia in August, 2019
• All Large Air Tankers have been grounded as a "mark of respect"

Early Thursday afternoon, the NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) said it had "lost contact" with a Lockheed C-130 Hercules being used in water bombing operations in the Snowy Monaro area.

Firefighters, emergency services and military personnel launched a search and rescue operation and located the wreckage.

However, RFS Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said all the crew members were "tragically" killed.

"[The aircraft] impacted heavily with the ground and initial reports are that there was a large fireball associated with the impact of the plane as it hit the ground," he said.

Commissioner Fitzsimmons said there was no indication on what caused the accident, but the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) was working to determine what happened.

The C-130 was contracted through North American aerial firefighting company Coulson Aviation (USA).
PHOTO: The C-130 which crashed while fighting a bushfire in southern NSW. (AAP Image: Dan Himbrechts)

The company has grounded their Large Air Tankers fleet as a precaution and as "a mark of respect".

The grounding of the water bombers by Coulson Aviation will have an immediate impact on aerial firefighting capacity, Commissioner Fitzsimmons said, but he understood their decision.

What we know about the C-130

As an investigation into the crash begins, here's what we know about the waterbomber and previous incidents involving the same model.

"It's absolutely warranted and I support them 100 per cent," he said.

"They are very mindful of the emotional and psychological effect that such a tragedy will have on the rest of their workforce, not just here in Australia but in North America or Canada."

Commissioner Fitzsimmons said all three occupants on the plane were American firefighters, and he extended his deepest sympathies to their families.

"Our hearts are with all those that are suffering in what is the loss of three remarkable, well respected, crew that have invested so many decades of their life into firefighting," he said.

The RFS said the aircraft was engaged in "routine" water bombing activities at the time of the crash.
PauseGIF0.2 MBSettings

GIF: The C-130 Hercules, seen on Flightradar24, suddenly stopped moving south of Canberra.

Flight tracking website Flightradar24 showed the flight path for the C-130 suddenly stopping south of Canberra.

According to its flight data, the aircraft departed RAAF Base Richmond, in western Sydney, about 12:05pm.

However, soon after 2pm the aircraft stopped in an area called Peak View, north-east of Cooma.


This is different from the FlightAware tracking that can be looked at closely
and shows what appears to be severe turbulence before what appears to be
an in flight break up.

My take on it is that, the witness information leads to a flight into terrain
while the Flight Aware A-DSB indicates an in flight break up.

its possible that both occurred.

[rattman]

Names of the crew have been released

https://www.kktv.com/content/news/3--567249941.html

[Squawk7700]

SCPL, you should send your “findings” to the ATSB, as they love it when people do that.

The investigation has already surpassed your half-arsed findings as there are eye witnesses.

[tartare]

On ABC just now:

In a post to Facebook, Coulson Aviation (USA) named captain Ian McBeth, first officer Paul Hudson and flight engineer Rick DeMorgan Jr as the aerial firefighting crew who died in the crash of the C-130 Large Air Tanker north-eastof Cooma.

Rest in Peace gentlemen.

[Cedrik]

Originally Posted by Sunfish

Can all you speculators, SCPL, Cedric, etc. please **** off and die. We who live here are in the middle of a national fire emergency that is not going to be over for at least another month. We are losing firefighters as it is and the last thing the bereaved need as well as our wives, friends and children is some pseudo intellectual wankers thousands of miles away, pontificating about something they know nothing about.


To put the loss in terms you might possibly understand and then withdraw, when you are on the fire ground most of us I think regard the water bombers as something like a guardian angel or big brother and we feel their loss exactly as you would a member of your own family - which those three crew are now for eternity.

I think you might be a bit harsh there Sunny, but you are right with one thing we do have a few months of worry left yet. Any loss is tragic, including those on the ground which there have been a few.

I have been fighting fires (From the air) in Vic since the beginning of November from Corryong Mansfield through to the SA border. Also have been working in close proximity with DC10, RJ, Herc trough to medium Helitacs so I do have a bit of an idea what goes on with aerial fire fighting. So next time you look up and see an aircraft coming into a fire, wave. I might wave back

[fatbus]

2002 was an A model 1957 , this crash H model 1981 , inner and outer wing mods was a continuous program when I flew them .

[SCPL_1988]

Originally Posted by fatbus

2002 was an A model 1957 , this crash H model 1981 , inner and outer wing mods was a continuous program when I flew them .

Thanks Fatbus, That was about the most relevant post on this thread so far.
What is your view on the probability of a wing failure on the H model of 1981 with inner and outer wing mods?

[Squawk7700]

Originally Posted by SCPL_1988

Thanks Fatbus, That was about the most relevant post on this thread so far.
What is your view on the probability of a wing failure on the H model of 1981 with inner and outer wing mods?

Perhaps an engineering forum would be more appropriate for that question. I doubt any pilot short of perhaps Buffalo Joe would know be able to answer that question.

[Sunfish]

Thank you Cedric, I would have seen you at Mansfield, no bombers when I was at Corryong and Kempsey but I was very glad of them last year. I notice the strip has just been watered and rolled.

If the speculators want to consider anything, then they might like to know that RFS lost a member when their ten ton tanker was rolled by a fire generated tornado.

[megan]

What is your view on the probability of a wing failure on the H model of 1981 with inner and outer wing mods?

He wouldn't know, subject any aircraft to sufficient "G" and the wings will fall off. Being an expert you will know all about V-n diagrams, "Limit" and "Ultimate" loads.

On another tack, how are so sure this doesn't represent a possible accident scenario? Visibility was said to be extremely poor.

You Tube

Thank you for your dedication and sacrifice Gentlemen. Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil; For You are with me; Your rod and Your staff, they comfort me.

Sign me up for a donation as well.

[wishiwasupthere]

ATSB just had a press conference. Things of note,

- Police said that the crash site ‘covers at least a kilometre’.
- Crash occurred after its retardant had been dropped.
- A number of people witnessed the crash.

[gerry111]

Originally Posted by SCPL_1988

My take on it is that, the witness information leads to a flight into terrain
while the Flight Aware A-DSB indicates an in flight break up.

its possible that both occurred.

I thought CFIT and In Flight Break Up to be mutually exclusive?

[onetrack]

Australian ABC news has some aerial footage of the crash site. There's very little left of the aircraft, almost total destruction of it.
If the wing/s separated in flight, I would have expected the ABC camera crew would have filmed them, sitting some distance away from the actual crash site.
Many trees are still standing in the crash zone, because these are Australian Eucalypt Hardwood trees, they don't snap off easily, even under impact from flying aircraft wreckage.
The impact zone does not appear to indicate a wings-level impact. Just my opinion.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-...named/11897704

[physicus]

Many if not most posters here don’t understand what ADS-B is, and how public sites such as ADSBExchange/Flightaware/Flightradar/Radarbox/RealTraffic alter that data (or not). This results in two extremely annoying camps forming: Camp A who take ADS-B data for gospel, and camp B who decry any publicly sourced ADS-B data as made up and false.

Both are dead wrong.

The very short explanation is this: ADS-B messages are a digitally encoded data packets, transmitted at 1090 MHz, containing information about the state vectors of the transmitting aircraft. If a receiver was able to decode the message and the checksum was correct, the data is real as measured and broadcast by the aircraft. There is no guesswork involved in this - it’s true information.

But: Not all state vector data is sent in each message. Vertical speed and altitude are broadcast up to 10 times per second. Position and GPS derived speed up to 4 times per second. Other parameters less frequently. The Callsign for instance may only be transmitted once every 2 seconds.

So it is up to the ADS-B data aggregators (i.e. FR24, ADSBExchange, …) to FILL IN and SUBSTITUTE data that is not present in messages with data from previous messages. What’s more, a position update rate of several times a second is not feasible to use on a tracking website. So all tracking websites aggregate the data, and each web browser connected retrieves the information once every 10 seconds or so.

That is why some websites such as FR24 use extrapolation when displaying aircraft on their websites, so the update on the display is quicker than the actual data rate. The data itself with MOST tracking websites updates in 10 second intervals. Any position updates you see inbetween are generally extrapolated positions based on the previous track and speed. Those extrapolated positions can’t be trusted of course, as they are the guesswork of software.

To avoid using guesswork when analysing an accident, you therefore can’t use the web displays, but you have to download a CSV file from FR24 or Flightaware or ADSBExchange and only use the data points presented there. These points have a very high degree of reliability - but you must be aware of the system’s limitations. You may for instance see position updates but the altitude or vertical speed remains the same. That doesn’t mean the altitude or vertical speed hasn’t changed, it’s possible no altitude message has been successfully decoded and passed on. The data aggregators then may cross fill altitude from previous data points. If you don’t see the altitude change, it may or may not be the same. But if the altitude field has changed, then a new altitude has been received. It’s simple, really.

So by all means, use the publicly available data and try and interpret as much from it as you can. But be aware of its limitations and make adequate use of the space between your ears!