Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

C130 down NE Cooma

Old 29th Jan 2020, 00:25
  #261 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by logansi View Post
Having seen the video one thing that came to my mind was "Was the a full drop" - seemed like quite a short run?
Early news reports suggested that it was the end of the drop after having completed an earlier one elsewhere.

The videographer or his nearby colleagues seemed surprised in the video that there wasn’t more of a drop as they seemed to be expecting a second drop.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 00:58
  #262 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sandiego89 View Post
Thank you Dave, that answered my curiosity, another subtlety to the myriad of configurations and special fits to the C-130 family.

This video from Coulson's site seems to do a good job of summing up their C-130 fleet. Interestingly there is a comment that they have depleted the world market of C-130s, hence the move to 737 based aircraft.

Coulson's C-130 tanker Bomber 131 started life in the TACAMO program and had chin windows, but was used by NASA for a while and had its chin windows blanked off at some point as they were nonexistent in NASA's livery. Bomber 134 wasn't mentioned but may have a similar history.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 01:18
  #263 (permalink)  
 
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Correct, Spek. The virtue signalling does get tiresome when you've read the same fauz-sophisticated comments over time. This is a 'Rumour Network'. By definition, that means speculation. Let the rumours fly. And let those who would discount the rumours (if they are able), do so...
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 01:32
  #264 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Squawk7700 View Post
Early news reports suggested that it was the end of the drop after having completed an earlier one elsewhere.

The videographer or his nearby colleagues seemed surprised in the video that there wasn’t more of a drop as they seemed to be expecting a second drop.

does the flight tracking data support that they descended and dropped earlier.
earlier posts had some detailed flight tracking data.

did not see any form of a lead aircraft in the video
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 01:52
  #265 (permalink)  
 
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Correct, Spek. The virtue signalling does get tiresome when you've read the same fauz-sophisticated comments over time. This is a 'Rumour Network'. By definition, that means speculation. Let the rumours fly. And let those who would discount the rumours (if they are able), do so...
Totally agree.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 02:23
  #266 (permalink)  
 
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Viewing the vid when it was up a couple of things stood out. Firstly it didn't look like a full load, maybe they were only carrying 8000 litres or so. After the drop the aircraft continued much the same attitude then had a sudden pitch up and initiating a roll at the same time, then appeared to level out before it seemed (Could have been other side of smoke) to go into the smoke before descending a couple of hundred feet to impact. If there was any retardant left you would think there would have been traces in the impact site.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 02:39
  #267 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BlackPanther View Post
I note the video seems to have dissapeared so the public won't be viewing it any more.
It is still on the 'net. I wont post a link. If you want to see it ask Dr Google.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 04:04
  #268 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by bentleg View Post
It is still on the 'net. I wont post a link. If you want to see it ask Dr Google.
News.com.au has it pretty high up as of now.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 04:46
  #269 (permalink)  
 
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DaveReidUK, Can you post a pic of the last few minutes with time plots?
The general public version of flight aware says 02:01 and goes from 1980m at 415kph to 1620m at 25kph
and apparently misleadingly does not show that the ADSB signals were patchy.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/.../0115Z/YSRI/YS




Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Actually, the ADS-B data on FlightAware is pretty patchy (only 11 plots covering the last 5 minutes of received transmissions). I'd be very dubious about drawing any conclusions from it.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 05:31
  #270 (permalink)  
 
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News.com.au video

Video now on the public record at news.com.au

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...ef72363e682371
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 06:04
  #271 (permalink)  
 
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Minimbah Thanks for link. I see the drop, a climb into apparently zero visibility, that if continued the C-130 would have cleared the ground.
The person filming appears to have been able to see the C-130 thru the smoke that is not easily seen on watching the grainy phone video.
The person filming appears to track the C-130 and follows it down to the ground and the fireball first shows when the center of the video is even lower,
he then raises the camera to center on the fireball.
It now appears that the cause was a loss of control due to a loss of visual reference?
If a wing had folded, would that have been evident from the pictures of the ground debris?
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 06:35
  #272 (permalink)  
 
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SCPL_1988, if you spent some time observing, studying aircraft accident investigation, seeking the council of more knowledgeable, you might be able internalize your thoughts and place critical assessment on them before vocalising them.

As it did when it occurred - It appears, and is confirmed, to be a fatal aircraft accident, involving a C-130 performing air attack/retardant delivery actions. As for the cause and related factors, well.... You dont have the depth of information, data and witness accounts that the "Investigators" do.

They will provide an accurate report in time and will inform all.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 06:40
  #273 (permalink)  
 
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scpl:
I see the drop, a climb into apparently zero visibility, that if continued the C-130 would have cleared the ground.
The person filming appears to have been able to see the C-130 thru the smoke that is not easily seen on watching the grainy phone video.
The person filming appears to track the C-130 and follows it down to the ground and the fireball first shows when the center of the video is even lower,
he then raises the camera to center on the fireball.
It now appears that the cause was a loss of control due to a loss of visual reference?
If a wing had folded, would that have been evident from the pictures of the ground debris?
I think your speculation is ghoulish attention seeking.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 06:51
  #274 (permalink)  
 
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SCPL there is no problem with speculation in my opinion. It's fine for you to propose ideas based off the evidence. But to just throw out literal sh*t, hoping you get something right, is deplorable.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 06:54
  #275 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SCPL_1988 View Post
DaveReidUK, Can you post a pic of the last few minutes with time plots?
The general public version of flight aware says 02:01 and goes from 1980m at 415kph to 1620m at 25kph
and apparently misleadingly does not show that the ADSB signals were patchy.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/.../0115Z/YSRI/YS
I'm sorry, but I have no idea what you're talking about - I'm looking at exactly the same ADS-B data that's available to anyone else, at https://flightaware.com/live/flight/.../YSRI/tracklog

ADS-B sends Airborne Position and Airborne Velocity data packets at roughly half-second intervals. That means that during the last 5 minutes of flight the aircraft would have sent approximately 600 transmissions.

The FlightAware data contains 11 of those 600 transmissions - that seems like a pretty good description of "patchy" to me, and that's why IMHO attempting to reach any conclusions based on the ADS-B data is ridiculous.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 07:04
  #276 (permalink)  
 
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(Lots of uncalled for, nasty personal attacks that in the past would have got these very brave anonymous posters banned.)

DaveRideUK, you stated "(only 11 plots covering the last 5 minutes of received transmissions)"
When I reviewed the ADSB, on Flight Aware public, I could not see any gaps, it appears to be continuous ADSB data
It appears impossible that there were only 11 plots in the last 5 minutes. Thats a lot change in direction, airspeed and alittude
that appears continuous. The question I was trying to ask is, do you have access to the private service of Flight Aware that shows
more detailed information. I used to have access to that quality of data but do not currently.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 07:13
  #277 (permalink)  
 
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What I find interesting from the video is that when we actually lose sight of the Hercules it is slightly climbing and possibly slightly turning to the left. In the nine seconds that follow before the first flash of impact, the aircraft seems to me, to have to change direction by about 80° to achieve the wreckage trail trajectory.

Steve.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 08:09
  #278 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SCPL_1988 View Post
When I reviewed the ADSB, on Flight Aware public, I could not see any gaps, it appears to be continuous ADSB data
It appears impossible that there were only 11 plots in the last 5 minutes. Thats a lot change in direction, airspeed and alittude that appears continuous.
No. Count the points between 2:03:46 and 2:08:58:


There are 11 of them:

2:03:46 7050' 250 kts
2:04:09 7000' 247 kts
2:04:39 6850' 237 kts
2:04:55 6650' 237 kts
2:06:19 6400' 243 kts
2:06:53 6625' 178 kts
2:07:13 6500' 134 kts
2:08:18 5400' 132 kts
2:08:28 5300' 133 kts
2:08:43 5300' 132 kts
2:08:58 5300' 154 kts

The question I was trying to ask is, do you have access to the private service of Flight Aware that shows more detailed information. I used to have access to that quality of data but do not currently.
No, I don't.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 08:13
  #279 (permalink)  
 
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...... it appears to be continuous ADSB data.....
What do you define as continuous?
These are timed packet style transmissions.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 08:16
  #280 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Eclan View Post
There's a clear and obvious distinction between reasonable, sensible sharing and discussion of facts and the peddling of empty, pointless speculation, catch-phrases and idiotic references to vague possibilities by ignorant wannabes desperate to appear knowledgeable in the aviation forum. Sadly, this thread is riddled with examples of the latter.
I totally agree, and have no issue at all with the more extreme speculation being challenged and dismissed.

The reason I asked the question is because some people have also launched into - in my view - utterly ridiculous over the top moralising about any speculation at all, saying we must wait for the report, won't someone think of the families etc...
If this place is not about open discussion in these type of situations what is it for?
Crazy theories will be quickly dismissed, and others will be considered, helpful, and probably ultimately right on the money.
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