C130 down NE Cooma
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Last edited by duncan_g; 26th Jan 2020 at 10:55. Reason: Fix text with link
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This is truly a tragic incident, but if there is anything we can take as a positive, it is how many people are finally now realising how amazing these aircraft and their crew are.
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A bit of a 3D view of the terrain.
Someone said that after dropping the last of the retardant he hooked a left hand turn. The ground scar looks as if he may have been heading about 105°'
This just gets more puzzling.
Someone said that after dropping the last of the retardant he hooked a left hand turn. The ground scar looks as if he may have been heading about 105°'
This just gets more puzzling.
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Wind conditions
I am just north of Cooma and the wind conditions on that day were horrendous - turbulent at ground level.
too many posts to scan, but I’m not sure whether it has been recorded here that the flight was an attempt to save a koala sanctuary - an “ark” of disease-free koalas. Adding to everyone’s pain.
Flags flew at half-mast for the crew throughout NSW and Australia’s capital, Canberra, including the national war memorial, the following day. A fitting response.
too many posts to scan, but I’m not sure whether it has been recorded here that the flight was an attempt to save a koala sanctuary - an “ark” of disease-free koalas. Adding to everyone’s pain.
Flags flew at half-mast for the crew throughout NSW and Australia’s capital, Canberra, including the national war memorial, the following day. A fitting response.
Call signs ? Special Task Operations | NAFC
If there was a smoke in the area as bad as the video on the first ABC link in this thread. It appears from the tracks depicted, no orbit was conducted,therefore no prior knowledge of the terrain regarding ingress and egress. The dry grass is the same colour as the smoke. Combine that with the knoll being the high ground on that plateau. No depth perception, limited horizon and the sortie completed was over lower forested ground. It is quite possible that tree line on the knoll materialising out of the smoke above the pilots was the only indication they were in trouble. My impression of the impact path looks like an attempt to climb..gradual impact followed by a deeper gouge the further up the hill. The splays of the impact are a very narrow angle looking up the hill.
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If there was a smoke in the area as bad as the video on the first ABC link in this thread. It appears from the tracks depicted, no orbit was conducted,therefore no prior knowledge of the terrain regarding ingress and egress. The dry grass is the same colour as the smoke. Combine that with the knoll being the high ground on that plateau. No depth perception, limited horizon and the sortie completed was over lower forested ground. It is quite possible that tree line on the knoll materialising out of the smoke above the pilots was the only indication they were in trouble. My impression of the impact path looks like an attempt to climb..gradual impact followed by a deeper gouge the further up the hill. The splays of the impact are a very narrow angle looking up the hill.
We Australians should never forget that in our hour of need, these skilled, brave professionals generously came here to help. They were obviously amazing people, and represent all that is good and great about their country.
That we hold these late aviators in such high esteem is evident in the fact that it's taken 200+ posts to come to terms with the idea of a CFIT as a possible cause. Knee jerk reactions were aplenty, in flight break up, fuel contamination etc. Yes they may still be the cause. But also, these guys operate large machinery at very low levels, in poor visual conditions that are oft changing in unfamiliar terrain. When I looked at the topo chart I posted above, my reaction was that they had been low level, flew (climbed?) to the end of the up sloping forest (thinking it was a ridge) and maintained altitude thinking they were into another valley. It's possible they simply didn't see the gently rising grass beyond in the smoke as there was no expectation it was there.
I have never flown in smoke, but have flown in other high illusion environments. It can catch you out easily - and that's without the extra pressures that these guys face. Acknowledging that CFIT is a possibility does not take away from their professionalism, skill, dedication and sacrifice. Rather it enforces the understanding of what a damn good job these guys do in adverse high stakes dynamic situations.
I have never flown in smoke, but have flown in other high illusion environments. It can catch you out easily - and that's without the extra pressures that these guys face. Acknowledging that CFIT is a possibility does not take away from their professionalism, skill, dedication and sacrifice. Rather it enforces the understanding of what a damn good job these guys do in adverse high stakes dynamic situations.
So SCPL 1988, anymore assertions about the sub standard maintenance of the aeroplane or Coulson wheeling and dealing to save money? Awfully quiet now huh.
If this does end up being a CFIT event, any self respecting aviator who thinks less of the crew is kidding themselves. Flying a large aeroplane that close to the ground, in such terrible weather, zero prep time on the place you're going to apart from during the cruise enroute. Must be bloody tough work and as Compressor Stall said, speaks volumes of the ability and professionalism of the guys and girls that take to the skies each day to fight that fight. I suspect with the CVR recovered etc it won't take long for an interim report to be released.
If this does end up being a CFIT event, any self respecting aviator who thinks less of the crew is kidding themselves. Flying a large aeroplane that close to the ground, in such terrible weather, zero prep time on the place you're going to apart from during the cruise enroute. Must be bloody tough work and as Compressor Stall said, speaks volumes of the ability and professionalism of the guys and girls that take to the skies each day to fight that fight. I suspect with the CVR recovered etc it won't take long for an interim report to be released.
I say again, a friend has direct personal experience of severe wind shear in that area. It may be that everyone was doing everything right. No need for complicated theories.
That we hold these late aviators in such high esteem is evident in the fact that it's taken 200+ posts to come to terms with the idea of a CFIT as a possible cause
Sunfish, I never said wind shear couldn’t be factor. It may well be. But should the crew not “have done everything right” and fallen for an illusion (the effects are simple not complicated btw!) does not make those three any less professional.
All will be known soon hopefully.
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Agree Sunny and you don’t know how hard it is to see forward in heavy smoke until you have tried. You might see the ground below but little more.
25 yrs CFA and 15 CFL/DCNR/DSE etc including qualified bombardier-navigator a long while ago.
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The AAS is responsible for tactics and environmental conditions.
If there was a lead - and I am starting to think there may not have been one - why did they not report the accident? The initial report of an accident came from the fire ground.
IF there was a lead plane, I am sure we would have reports of turbulence or downdrafts.
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