How much must the airlines be praying for this?
^^^ not quite right, they have declared the Coronavirus a 'Health Emergency of International Concern'. This level of alert has NO effect on international travel or trade, it just gives governments more power to co-ordinate their responses to try and limit the spread particularly to areas that don't have robust health systems. Having said that I think that Qantas and Air New Zealand are clearly placing commercial interests above that of public health. I mean the idiot from Air NZ yesterday saying 'don't worry our aircraft filter out viruses', it is staggering.
QF has a duty under Occupational Health and Safety Law to provide a safe working environment for ALL its staff, including pilots and cabin crew. I would imagine QF would take that into account.
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Air France unions pushed very hard and their statute is very focused on workplace safety.
QF have no ability to say they are "monitoring" the WHO has belatedly spoken.
It will be an interesting day to see whether it continues to track a logarithmic progression or indeed begins to exhibit the exponential elements...
Early cases yes, the more recent data suggests a 29%/day increase, despite being lumpy and being selected for severity.
I read that report too, Sunny,
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...2001316?query=
and the article on STAT which urges caution about the early math since the data is so suspect for a lot of innocent reasons*
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/...irus-outbreak/
* innocent reasons include complete ignorance of the rate of inconsequential infection- the mild cases which never seek medical attention, the few misdiagnosed and, less innocent, the undereporting early, and the lack of test kits lately.
As the numbers swell we will get a handle on rates of mortality. The virus may end up mutating in one direction or another in such a large petri dish as China. RNA viruses mutate spontaneously due to the lack of proofreading that a DNA virus has to do to reproduce. Mutations are a crap shoot. A mutation in the benign direction may take the heat out of pockets of this particular bushfire.
As I see it there are four broad possibilities when you draw a matrix of R0 and CFR with the caveat of completely uncertain data sets.
As such I am keeping my arithmetic to myself for awhile, but three out of four scenarios look look dire. Its hardly rocket science, and there are lots of unknowns. And Rumsfeldian unknowns too.
I just wish the government was as pessimistic as I am
That said, there are some probable mitigators to the infection rate, like fear, enhanced hygiene, self-isolation and mobility bans.
Anyway, so far this contagion looks just like the start of all the nightmare scenarios we have been warned about.
here’s a recent warning about bat coronaviruses and China from early last year:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466186/
I read that report too, Sunny,
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...2001316?query=
and the article on STAT which urges caution about the early math since the data is so suspect for a lot of innocent reasons*
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/...irus-outbreak/
* innocent reasons include complete ignorance of the rate of inconsequential infection- the mild cases which never seek medical attention, the few misdiagnosed and, less innocent, the undereporting early, and the lack of test kits lately.
As the numbers swell we will get a handle on rates of mortality. The virus may end up mutating in one direction or another in such a large petri dish as China. RNA viruses mutate spontaneously due to the lack of proofreading that a DNA virus has to do to reproduce. Mutations are a crap shoot. A mutation in the benign direction may take the heat out of pockets of this particular bushfire.
As I see it there are four broad possibilities when you draw a matrix of R0 and CFR with the caveat of completely uncertain data sets.
As such I am keeping my arithmetic to myself for awhile, but three out of four scenarios look look dire. Its hardly rocket science, and there are lots of unknowns. And Rumsfeldian unknowns too.
I just wish the government was as pessimistic as I am
That said, there are some probable mitigators to the infection rate, like fear, enhanced hygiene, self-isolation and mobility bans.
Anyway, so far this contagion looks just like the start of all the nightmare scenarios we have been warned about.
here’s a recent warning about bat coronaviruses and China from early last year:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466186/
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Early cases yes, the more recent data suggests a 29%/day increase, despite being lumpy and being selected for severity.
I read that report too, Sunny,
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...2001316?query=
and the article on STAT which urges caution about the early math since the data is so suspect for a lot of innocent reasons*
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/...irus-outbreak/
* innocent reasons include complete ignorance of the rate of inconsequential infection- the mild cases which never seek medical attention, the few misdiagnosed and, less innocent, the undereporting early, and the lack of test kits lately.
As the numbers swell we will get a handle on rates of mortality. The virus may end up mutating in one direction or another in such a large petri dish as China. RNA viruses mutate spontaneously due to the lack of proofreading that a DNA virus has to do to reproduce. Mutations are a crap shoot. A mutation in the benign direction may take the heat out of pockets of this particular bushfire.
As I see it there are four broad possibilities when you draw a matrix of R0 and CFR with the caveat of completely uncertain data sets.
As such I am keeping my arithmetic to myself for awhile, but three out of four scenarios look look dire. Its hardly rocket science, and there are lots of unknowns. And Rumsfeldian unknowns too.
I just wish the government was as pessimistic as I am
That said, there are some probable mitigators to the infection rate, like fear, enhanced hygiene, self-isolation and mobility bans.
Anyway, so far this contagion looks just like the start of all the nightmare scenarios we have been warned about.
here’s a recent warning about bat coronaviruses and China from early last year:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466186/
I read that report too, Sunny,
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...2001316?query=
and the article on STAT which urges caution about the early math since the data is so suspect for a lot of innocent reasons*
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/...irus-outbreak/
* innocent reasons include complete ignorance of the rate of inconsequential infection- the mild cases which never seek medical attention, the few misdiagnosed and, less innocent, the undereporting early, and the lack of test kits lately.
As the numbers swell we will get a handle on rates of mortality. The virus may end up mutating in one direction or another in such a large petri dish as China. RNA viruses mutate spontaneously due to the lack of proofreading that a DNA virus has to do to reproduce. Mutations are a crap shoot. A mutation in the benign direction may take the heat out of pockets of this particular bushfire.
As I see it there are four broad possibilities when you draw a matrix of R0 and CFR with the caveat of completely uncertain data sets.
As such I am keeping my arithmetic to myself for awhile, but three out of four scenarios look look dire. Its hardly rocket science, and there are lots of unknowns. And Rumsfeldian unknowns too.
I just wish the government was as pessimistic as I am
That said, there are some probable mitigators to the infection rate, like fear, enhanced hygiene, self-isolation and mobility bans.
Anyway, so far this contagion looks just like the start of all the nightmare scenarios we have been warned about.
here’s a recent warning about bat coronaviruses and China from early last year:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466186/
Agreed.
Being pessimistic about this would be wise.
Big assumption that any moron in Canberra does anything other than scrapbook pictures from the daily rags.
As for understanding the mathematics of projection forget it.
Does anyone posting here know the specifics/mechanics of how a virus of 0.1 microns enters the blood?
I have always imagined that if there was a virus on a handrail for example, and it transferred to the palm of my hand, that it would simply sit outside of my body on the skin and be unable to enter unless I had a break in the skin or transferred it to my mouth/ nose/ eyes.
Is this accurate or can tiny virus’s enter through skin if rubbed/ pushed?
I have always imagined that if there was a virus on a handrail for example, and it transferred to the palm of my hand, that it would simply sit outside of my body on the skin and be unable to enter unless I had a break in the skin or transferred it to my mouth/ nose/ eyes.
Is this accurate or can tiny virus’s enter through skin if rubbed/ pushed?
It enters most easily via your airway, via inhalation or one of the hundreds of times a day you touch your nose, mouth, eyes etc. Basically the same way you get a cold.
Wearing a mask, properly, washing your hands often and well, and never touching your face may improve your chances.
A Chinese study suggests that 2019 nCoV binds to the ACE2 receptor, common for these bat coronaviruses, apparently. Heart, lungs, kidneys. Already suppressed ACE2 in diabetics, so you begin to get a feel for where lots of the complications are cropping up: COPD sufferers, those with heart disease and diabetics, to name only three groups.
Wearing a mask, properly, washing your hands often and well, and never touching your face may improve your chances.
A Chinese study suggests that 2019 nCoV binds to the ACE2 receptor, common for these bat coronaviruses, apparently. Heart, lungs, kidneys. Already suppressed ACE2 in diabetics, so you begin to get a feel for where lots of the complications are cropping up: COPD sufferers, those with heart disease and diabetics, to name only three groups.
Do math much? The best estimate death rate is around 2.5%, so all of the external cases might see a total of two deaths, within the range of error for a small sample. Also its early yet, and the median age of those infected is lower than the Chinese fatalities.
Last edited by Australopithecus; 31st Jan 2020 at 01:16.
Looking at today’s numbers, and relying on the larger data sets, it looks now like 25% per day increases in cases and fatalities, so doubling in just under three days.
In about a week, give or take, there will be more reported cases (ie, really sick people) than the 51,900 ICU beds in China.
In about a week, give or take, there will be more reported cases (ie, really sick people) than the 51,900 ICU beds in China.
Last edited by Australopithecus; 31st Jan 2020 at 01:18.
The virus has to enter a living cell to infect you because the virus itself is not “alive”. The virus hijacks the cells function and changes it to replicate more copies of the virus, which then get dispersed when the cell dies.
What happens then is a statistical battle between the virus and your immune system. Whoever can produce more soldiers wins. Your immune system has to learn to recognize and destroy the virus critters. Vaccines teach it.
Do not rely on my explanation, it’s all the physiologists could teach me when I worked with them.
Closest simile, it’s like the battle of britain in your body with the germans being the virus.
What happens then is a statistical battle between the virus and your immune system. Whoever can produce more soldiers wins. Your immune system has to learn to recognize and destroy the virus critters. Vaccines teach it.
Do not rely on my explanation, it’s all the physiologists could teach me when I worked with them.
Closest simile, it’s like the battle of britain in your body with the germans being the virus.
Thanks Aust and Sunny.
Thanks Sir, I was beginning to panic.
Or......maybe, I’m enjoying the conversation and learning lots at the same time
Ps, your slippers are starting to smoke.
Calm down people......
zero deaths outside China and a lot have been discharged already.
take a breath
zero deaths outside China and a lot have been discharged already.
take a breath
Or......maybe, I’m enjoying the conversation and learning lots at the same time
Ps, your slippers are starting to smoke.
Yeah if I was cabin crew working down the back for the long flight home with a pax coughing away and feeling ill I would be asking myself if I shouldn’t have just rung Ops and said “no thanks”.
Its not like the company is going to say “ your concern is not legitimate”.
They’ll simply replace you and when they get to the point they can’t then the situation is self explanatory.
Its not like the company is going to say “ your concern is not legitimate”.
They’ll simply replace you and when they get to the point they can’t then the situation is self explanatory.
Yeah if I was cabin crew working down the back for the long flight home with a pax coughing away and feeling ill I would be asking myself if I shouldn’t have just rung Ops and said “no thanks”.
As I mentioned before, we in Australia might have the same number of cases in the wild right now that China did in early December. Absent any decrease in infection rates, we will likely have the same mathematical outcome in seven weeks regarding total infection numbers. Don't know yet if we will see the same mortality rates. Thinking...
If that is the case then why worry about it, the cat is already out of the bag and we are now in a situation where we just have to deal with the virus until a vaccine is developed.