How much must the airlines be praying for this?
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Decades of unfettered immigration. Hoovering up houses for bundles full of cash. Cash exempt from mandatory reports, of origin unknown.
Loss of amenity is just the beginning.
The WHO is being hammered by playing politics with this virus, just like the last time. Globalisation is great isn't it?
The Chinese are playing games last time with death reported as "respiratory failure" therefore not this virus on death certificates.
If this is tru, the mortality rate may well be higher.
Is it any wonder that whooping cough and other long ago eradicated diseases re-emerge in Australia?
Blame the anti-vac community but when you import third world trash with far lower levels of community and individual hygiene, is it really a surprise?
Last edited by Rated De; 27th Jan 2020 at 22:08.
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Scomo is from the tourism world so he’d prefer to see 100k dead boomers than dent our visitor numbers.
The rest of the world is fortunate China is taking its own measures to mitigate the spread.
Think of all that university revenue we’d miss out on and sh1tbox apartments that would go unsold.
Scomo is from the tourism world so he’d prefer to see 100k dead boomers than dent our visitor numbers.
The rest of the world is fortunate China is taking its own measures to mitigate the spread.
Scomo is from the tourism world so he’d prefer to see 100k dead boomers than dent our visitor numbers.
The rest of the world is fortunate China is taking its own measures to mitigate the spread.
Authorities seem to trying to prevent mass panic, and that impulse might just allow the pandemic to worsen. The Chinese authorities seem to be panicking in the background as evidenced by their wartime effort in building new hospitals.
Keeping bats and snakes and people in close proximity removes all the ecological barriers to cross-species recombinant viral mutation. That practice has long been predicted to be an infection source and should be permanently banned.
Sorry to say, but the borders should be closed to all flights from China and to all passengers who lately visited China. By now its probably too late for that though.
As it stands today, reported cases are increasing by approximately 50% per day. By mid Feb that trend reaches 7 million cases and deaths, while a lagging number, extrapolate out to the twilight zone.
Last edited by Australopithecus; 28th Jan 2020 at 01:32. Reason: Adopted a more measured tone
Too late! Schools are opening with students fresh off the aircraft from China. The Victoria Chief medical officer has allegedly said today that the virus is not transmissible absent symptoms. Twitter suggests he might be 12 hours behind the news:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci....co/FZr3Es1VwZ
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci....co/FZr3Es1VwZ
Unlike SARS, this corona virus is transmitted without evident symptoms, so even a well-intentioned sufferer who might self-quarantine will be passing on the virus unknowingly. The current estimates for the reproduction rate go past 3.0, which is very bad. I read today that medical statistical experts suggest the current true infections could be over 20,000 which may be good news for the fatality rate, or it may be the opposite. I expect it will take another week or so to more fully grasp the CFR, and maybe only in hindsight.
I imagine that things must be getting desperate in Wuhan right now with the bans on travel, personal automobiles etc, and the shortage of medical supplies, food etc.
on edit: Wikipedia already has a pretty informative topic on this virus for the curious
I imagine that things must be getting desperate in Wuhan right now with the bans on travel, personal automobiles etc, and the shortage of medical supplies, food etc.
on edit: Wikipedia already has a pretty informative topic on this virus for the curious
How do we explain no deaths outside of China due to this strain?
1. the travellers were asymptomatic until after arrival
2. the travellers that became ill did not generally fit into the age group most at risk
3. the travellers that became ill were all beneficiaries of unburdened, well equipped and aroused health care
4. the best guess mortality rate of 3% suggests that the total ex-Sino population of sufferers might only have two deaths total
5. It’s early days yet.
The infection and mortality rate of this new disease are very similar to the Spanish flu of 1918. I think that the eventual outcome will be better owing to a faster vaccine development, but for the next six months or so I am pretty worried.
Last edited by Australopithecus; 28th Jan 2020 at 05:18.
Thank you - let’s hope it turns out for the best.
The problem comes when our medical system is overwhelmed by the number of serious cases. At present you will receive intensive care. Later, not so much. If this gets bad we will have triage tents outside hospitals. Old farts like me and those with pre existing conditions are probably only going to receive palliative care and have to take our chances. ICU and suchlike are for those they think they can save without too much effort.
The main issue is how we keep our economy ticking over and our infrastructure intact and functioning.
I don’t know, but I would guess the plan is to minimize social contact until we can get a vaccine. We “may” be lucky since last time I was involved with the science, CSL in Parkville had one of the very few vaccine production facilities in the world. You see, vaccines are not highly profitable because most of them are a one shot dose for poor people in third world countries. Most Pharma investment is focussed on profitable medical issues, ageing, hair loss, sexuality (viagra) and diseases of rich western lifestyles - obesity, diabetes, etc.
The main issue is how we keep our economy ticking over and our infrastructure intact and functioning.
I don’t know, but I would guess the plan is to minimize social contact until we can get a vaccine. We “may” be lucky since last time I was involved with the science, CSL in Parkville had one of the very few vaccine production facilities in the world. You see, vaccines are not highly profitable because most of them are a one shot dose for poor people in third world countries. Most Pharma investment is focussed on profitable medical issues, ageing, hair loss, sexuality (viagra) and diseases of rich western lifestyles - obesity, diabetes, etc.
I read a study today that said 18% of the ingredients for all the world's medicines come from China, and that Pharmaceutical companies were being urged to secure their supply chains. I wonder where all the N95 masks are made?
Earlier I mentioned that the UofQ had a new technique to clamp or bind a protein to a virus fragment which would allow a fast way to produce a vaccine without the whole RNA sequence. The entire sequence is known now, but it appears that the virus is mutating rapidly and shows variations in the middle of the RNA not seen in prior corona virus strains. There is some speculation that the mutations are also changing the glycoprotein which might render a vaccine useless but might also prevent the virus from so easily breaching host cells.
Earlier I mentioned that the UofQ had a new technique to clamp or bind a protein to a virus fragment which would allow a fast way to produce a vaccine without the whole RNA sequence. The entire sequence is known now, but it appears that the virus is mutating rapidly and shows variations in the middle of the RNA not seen in prior corona virus strains. There is some speculation that the mutations are also changing the glycoprotein which might render a vaccine useless but might also prevent the virus from so easily breaching host cells.
Is our response smart?
Have to wonder about our Quarantine approach though.
Arrived Monday night on CI from AKL into BNE. Quarantine decided to hold all the pax onboard while they did a 'Coronavirus' check. After 40 minutes they let us off. I asked if that was the new process for ALL arriving flights into Aus now, but was stunned at the response. No, only those that originated in China. There was some strange looks when told that the flight had originated in AKL (no it travelled TPE-AKL-BNE was the response). Sorry folks but the routing was TPE-BNE-AKL, so you actually had the check done earlier in the day. 'No' was the response - 'there might be transiting passengers from China'. Just shook my head at the lack of thought. If that is the level of intelligence response at our airports, then God help us.
Arrived Monday night on CI from AKL into BNE. Quarantine decided to hold all the pax onboard while they did a 'Coronavirus' check. After 40 minutes they let us off. I asked if that was the new process for ALL arriving flights into Aus now, but was stunned at the response. No, only those that originated in China. There was some strange looks when told that the flight had originated in AKL (no it travelled TPE-AKL-BNE was the response). Sorry folks but the routing was TPE-BNE-AKL, so you actually had the check done earlier in the day. 'No' was the response - 'there might be transiting passengers from China'. Just shook my head at the lack of thought. If that is the level of intelligence response at our airports, then God help us.
Last edited by plainmaker; 29th Jan 2020 at 02:58. Reason: some typo's
The temperature checks fall into the category of biosecurity theatre. They are useless since the virus has a long latency period (time from infection until symptoms present) and it is transmissible during the incubation period ie, before fever or other symptoms develop.
Seriously, its too late now to shut the door anyway owing to the sheer number of ex-China passengers allowed in already. The virus is out there, but the math says that we in the west are lagging the Chinese experience by about seven weeks.
Seriously, its too late now to shut the door anyway owing to the sheer number of ex-China passengers allowed in already. The virus is out there, but the math says that we in the west are lagging the Chinese experience by about seven weeks.
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The temperature checks fall into the category of biosecurity theatre. They are useless since the virus has a long latency period (time from infection until symptoms present) and it is transmissible during the incubation period ie, before fever or other symptoms develop.
SARS was not transmissible asymptomatic.
This thing now is admitted to transmit person to person, transmissivity R>2.5
The checking of temperature does nothing...and they know it.
Chris Martenson has a PhD in toxicology and understands pathology.
Perhaps Little Napoleon will "lead" the mission...
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...29-p53vpw.html
I think our leaders are starting to catch up. We are at least now talking of voluntary quarantine for 14 days. Only perhaps about three days after it was discovered that asymptomatic transmission is possible, so we are making progress...
Following from that, we will probably ban travel to/from China a week too late. If we are very, very, very lucky, contact tracing and rigorously enforced quarantine and social distancing (close schools, stop events involving crowds, etc.) might just buy us time until a vaccine is available.
Following from that, we will probably ban travel to/from China a week too late. If we are very, very, very lucky, contact tracing and rigorously enforced quarantine and social distancing (close schools, stop events involving crowds, etc.) might just buy us time until a vaccine is available.
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BA have now cancelled all flights to mainland China. This is starting to escalate quickly. How long until QF make the same move?
They need time to manufacture a narrative. Do they have a medical department, if they are at all competent they will have told Little Napoleon transmission risk warrants cessation of all flights on Workplace Health and Safety...
If they keep flying he can sit in 1a to "lead from the front" and rescue Australians.
That the Australian education minister Tehan, as late as yesterday claimed that asymptomatic transmission was not possible is a concern both for his competence and knowledge.
Rather like the bush fires, Australia is on its own.
When minutes count these idiots take months.
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The donors to Australia's two major parties are too worried about the first quarter's trading figures.
The donations are up, the persiflage ongoing.
Chris Martenson knows a little of virus pathology and he details exactly how the WHO has used BS Lawyer speak to refuse to invoke their own criteria to use the word pandemic.