Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Steve Purvinas, legend

Old 23rd Oct 2019, 02:17
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Going Boeing View Post
It's interesting how Vanessa keeps comparing QF Domestic with the main competitor, Virgin - no mention of International comparisons, why was that?

In 2012/13, Joyce was proudly proclaiming that QF International was a basketcase, in terminal decline, etc. Despite the fact that the loads hadn't decreased he pulled QF out of major routes (SYD-SIN-FRA & AKL-LAX) and ran to the government for a tax payer handout. When the government required a forensic examination of the accounts before any handout could be considered, he backpedalled, slunk away and recorded a record profit only 12 months after the $2.8 BILLION paper loss. The fact that the International division's losses were being manipulated by management was shown when JQ domestic pilots posted pics of their fuel invoices with QF International shown as the receiver of the fuel. This was one of many ways that the accounts were (& still are) being fiddled but Vanessa doesn't want to go there as there may be an investigative reporter still keen to find the truth and that would be embarrassing.
A nice summation.

With a robust regulator, the great Australian swindle would have at least been investigated.
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Old 23rd Oct 2019, 22:29
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Bonuses

Hmmm,happy to mention the amount of money put 'aside' for non exec bonuses,NO mention of how much of it is still sitting 'aside' whilst they try to coerce employees into signing up for their next EA.
Someone mentioned they now believe their own BS,just shows how out of touch they really are & living in a world of their own.😠
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Old 24th Oct 2019, 07:08
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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First quarter of FY20 released. Everything up. https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/me...-quarter-fy20/
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Old 24th Oct 2019, 07:18
  #44 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by T-Vasis View Post
First quarter of FY20 released. Everything up. https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/me...-quarter-fy20/
So, the only reason then for screwing the pilots is to make more profits and bigger bonuses.
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Old 24th Oct 2019, 10:07
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by T-Vasis View Post
First quarter of FY20 released. Everything up. https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/me...-quarter-fy20/
Investors assessed this accordingly; Qantas share price sunk 3.7% on this report.
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Old 24th Oct 2019, 11:18
  #46 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Bravo Delta View Post
Wow you guys have nearly made me hate aviation.
I read the first dozen posts on this subject, are any of you real pilots or just internet wannabes. Lol
If you don’t like it don’t read it, simple.
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Old 26th Oct 2019, 01:58
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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You’ll usually find that internet wannabes are all rose glasses and upbeat about the industry. Guys and girls who have been around long enough to see the slow deterioration are open about their disappointment.
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Old 28th Oct 2019, 00:06
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Hi all,

Busy week the last one and finally I find some time to jump on here and respond to a few of the comments, mostly the ones from T-Vasis.

There was a query about what type of profit (net, underlying, before tax) I was referring to when the piece was written. I was referring to net profit, it says that in the article. Net profit is the one commonly used by all financial commentators in relation to any company and it is the one that makes most sense. It is after the tax is paid, the real amount left to distribute to investors or......Executives.

Another of the comments was to make sure you are comparing the average fleet age with an airline with a similar number of aircraft. I do not accept that premise because this is an "average" fleet age. All airlines pretty much have a different number of planes, you cannot excuse the non replacement of aircraft because another airline who is replacing aircraft regularly only has half the aircraft. As I originally said, Qantas was bragging about its fleet age in their annual reports 8 years ago, now they are not.

Like the mouthpiece from Qantas who tried to debunk my article, assumptions are being made that aren't true. I did not include the FIFO/Network aircraft in the average fleet age. It was Jetstar (Aus)/Qantas and Qantaslink. I didn't include Jetstar franchises overseas because Qantas does not fully own them. I didn't include Network, I didn't need to in order to show that Qantas were neglecting fleet age and they weren't part of the group 8 years ago. I genuinely wanted to compare apples with apples.

I think the long term future of Qantas is in jeopardy with the way the airline is currently being managed.
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Old 28th Oct 2019, 00:29
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ALAEA Fed Sec View Post

I think the long term future of Qantas is in jeopardy with the way the airline is currently being managed.
Never a truer word spoken.
There is a debt tsunami coming that will cripple the business. But those responsible will be gone with their millions.
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Old 28th Oct 2019, 02:40
  #50 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by What The View Post


Never a truer word spoken.
There is a debt tsunami coming that will cripple the business. But those responsible will be gone with their millions.
There are people who get it I’m pleased to see. We will see in the new year when the tides out who is naked, the DFW , Lax and Sfo loads on the 380 and 747 are very ordinary at the moment.
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Old 28th Oct 2019, 05:32
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Net profit is the one commonly used by all financial commentators in relation to any company and it is the one that makes most sense. It is after the tax is paid, the real amount left to distribute to investors or……Executives.
Not exactly. Net Profit includes non-cash expenses e.g. depreciation, impairments which, as you saw in 2014 for QF and FY19 for VA, can be significant. Free cash flow is a better metric to understand what is ‘left over’ that can be reinvested into the business, buy back shares, pay distributions or pay down debt. A better indicator of company health when assessing.

Another of the comments was to make sure you are comparing the average fleet age with an airline with a similar number of aircraft. I do not accept that premise because this is an "average" fleet age. All airlines pretty much have a different number of planes
It is mathematical and the ’snapshot' methodology isn’t precise to enable fair fleet comparisons or strategy. I did already say though that I was in agreement QF needs to update the fleet.





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Old 28th Oct 2019, 05:39
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
……..the DFW , Lax and Sfo loads on the 380 and 747 are very ordinary at the moment.
MEL-LAX loads in the premium classes are pretty good and have been for a while; not so flash down the back but it's up the front that really counts.
LAX-MEL has been well over 400 pax regularly for a while.
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Old 28th Oct 2019, 09:19
  #53 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by C441 View Post
MEL-LAX loads in the premium classes are pretty good and have been for a while; not so flash down the back but it's up the front that really counts.
LAX-MEL has been well over 400 pax regularly for a while.
Correct about premium classes and that applies to Sydney also, Melb to the USA loads are far better than Sydney for some reason.
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Old 28th Oct 2019, 14:08
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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When oil goes back to USD $145 a barrel, the party will be over, and the big lady will sing.
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Old 28th Oct 2019, 20:56
  #55 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by tio540 View Post
When oil goes back to USD $145 a barrel, the party will be over, and the big lady will sing.
Sue, but not only for Qantas and when might that be?
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Old 28th Oct 2019, 21:26
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Another of the comments was to make sure you are comparing the average fleet age with an airline with a similar number of aircraft. I do not accept that premise because this is an "average" fleet age. All airlines pretty much have a different number of planes, you cannot excuse the non replacement of aircraft because another airline who is replacing aircraft regularly only has half the aircraft. As I originally said, Qantas was bragging about its fleet age in their annual reports 8 years ago, now they are not.
Mr Purvinas,

Fund manager Roger Montgomery Montgomery Investment Management(Located in Sydney, Australia), in an article in the Australian in mid 2018, described eloquently the horrible fleet metrics to which you refer.

The most expensive part of running an airline is replacing old cheap planes with newer and more expensive models. Airlines cannot escape this capital expenditure lest passengers jump to competing airlines with fancier entertainment offerings and more comfortable seats, bars and beds.You can call it a disciplined approach to capital spending or you could say the board might prefer to see the share price go up now, maximise share price-related incentives for current management and leave the reality of replacing planes to the next guy. Whichever way you spin it, the investment bank UBS note Qantas’s ‘fleet age’ has increased from 7.7 years in 2015 to a current 10.2 years. They also note that the fleet is now older than the last peak of 9 years in 2007.According to the same report, Qantas has introduced just nine new aircraft, or 3.7 per cent of group seat capacity, over the last three years and so a minimum of $1.4 billion per annum will be required to maintain a constant fleet age, with an additional $300 million spend on the non-aircraft asset base making $1.7 billion. That matches depreciation, but depreciation is based on historical costs so it is still probably undercooking how much is needed to keep the fleet fresh, new and competitive.And that means future cash flows might not look as good as recent numbers suggest – airlines cannot escape having to eventually replace their planes.
The era of the fossil Leigh Clifford and Little Napoleon has placed the airline in a difficult position. That the next guy faces a huge capital expenditure bill is a big concern. That the new Chair Goyder seems unconcerned ought concern all.
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Old 28th Oct 2019, 21:57
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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I’m sure that thanks to Prune QF is madly ordering aircraft...

To think that there is no aircraft replacement plan... oh you will say I’m naive call me a QF angel...

787’s are new are they not? Sunrise will be new will it not? The 200 buses (ok no idea how many actually) are going where?

What really needs to be replaced right now? The 747’s? Oh yes they are going we see, hanging around a little longer cause the Queen of the skies is still needed.

So exactly what is it you would like to see replaced now? Domestic?
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Old 28th Oct 2019, 23:58
  #58 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Global Aviator View Post
I’m sure that thanks to Prune QF is madly ordering aircraft...

To think that there is no aircraft replacement plan... oh you will say I’m naive call me a QF angel...

787’s are new are they not? Sunrise will be new will it not? The 200 buses (ok no idea how many actually) are going where?

What really needs to be replaced right now? The 747’s? Oh yes they are going we see, hanging around a little longer cause the Queen of the skies is still needed.

So exactly what is it you would like to see replaced now? Domestic?
Your glasses are rose coloured I’d call everyone else’s realistic. From where I stand someone is out of step and it’s not us. As for domestic yes they need to start planning replacements as the early 737s are I believe 15+ years old.
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Old 29th Oct 2019, 00:07
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Remember when the industry used to say "the only replacement for a DC3 is a DC3"?

Most of you are probably too young...

Well the only replacement for a 747 is probably a 747-8i
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Old 29th Oct 2019, 01:40
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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Let’s not forget that the oldest A332s are 2002 models and becoming extremely unreliable by all accounts. Some say caused by the years of neglect in JQ colours when maintenance was outsourced and delayed.
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